Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing decreased, while downstream tire companies had a positive purchasing sentiment, and warehouse shipments were better than expected. - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased, but this week, it may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall orders. Some enterprises may adjust production schedules or conduct maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. - The RU2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short - term, and the NR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 132,930 lots, up 1,723 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 57,206 lots, up 2,876 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,531 lots, up 3,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,221 lots, up 1,111 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 178,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,655 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 975 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,873 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 357 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.55 Thai baht/kg, up 1.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.37 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, up 0.32 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.62%, down 0.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.34%, up 0.21 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.71%, up 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.7%, up 0.21 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of August 24 - 30, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decline of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decline of 1.28%. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainy weather persists, leading to a tight supply of raw materials and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, precipitation disrupts the tapping operations, resulting in limited fresh latex output. Local rubber processing plants face difficulties in raw material procurement [2]. - The total spot inventory at Qingdao ports continues to decline, with bonded warehouses accumulating inventory and general trade warehouses showing further de - stocking. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and most are focused on inventory digestion [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance schedules, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The resumption of work at full - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization as maintenance - affected enterprises resume work, but overall orders are average, and production control by enterprises will continue to limit the increase [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,875 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,185 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 134,968 lots, up 1,513 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 58,095 lots, down 399 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,237 lots, down 1,112 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,844 lots, up 1,087 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 179,570 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,838 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 148 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.28 Thai baht/kg, down 1.87 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 49.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, down 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, up 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.9%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.4%, down 0.47 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.36%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 17 - 23, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red - marked areas with heavy rainfall are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red - marked areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 616,700 tons, down 3,100 tons or 0.50% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 76,900 tons, up 2.12%, and the general trade inventory is 539,800 tons, down 0.87% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting tapping. In Yunnan, raw material prices remain high due to rainy weather delaying the increase in supply. In Hainan, raw material output has improved but is still below the same period in previous years, and local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas arrivals have decreased, resulting in a decline in bonded warehouse inflows, but weak buying and lack of outbound motivation have led to inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. General trade warehouses are accelerating inventory reduction. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are gradually recovering, driving an increase in提货量 from Qingdao warehouses, with the outbound rate significantly higher than the inbound rate, leading to a reduction in total spot inventory in Qingdao last week. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies continued to increase month - on - month. Most companies' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some companies have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,730 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, and the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 790 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 154,350 lots, a decrease of 3,022 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,318 lots, a decrease of 32,710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 365 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 199,540 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 47,678 tons, a decrease of 11,996 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, and the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 68.59 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 3.33 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 66 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 62.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 66 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 53 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 66,900 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 216,100 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 42.77 days, an increase of 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 3.09 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.68%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.36%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.35%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From May 18th to May 24th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. Precipitation in northern Thailand and the Philippines north of the equator increased significantly, and most other areas were in a medium state, still affecting tapping. South of the equator, the red - flagged areas with heavy rainfall decreased, and most other areas had medium rainfall, with the expected impact on tapping decreasing. [2] - As of May 18th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points. [2] - As of May 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most enterprises' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some enterprises have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth. [2]