| 18 11 | 4836/.06 | 48582.59 | U.U5% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 离岸人民币 | 6.9843 | 6.9704 | -0.20% | | COMEX铜 | 5.7105 | 5.6980 | 0.22% | | SGX铁矿 | 105.45 | 105.20 | -0.24% | | LmeS铜 | 12499.0 | 12460.5 | 0.31% | | 美债10Y | 112.61 | 112.19 | 0.37% | | CBOT美麦 | 509.00 | 506.50 | 0.49% | | ICE棉花 | 64.34 | 64.01 | -0.51% | | 标普 500 | 6896.24 | 6858.47 | 0.55% | | CBOT玉米 | 440.00 | 437.00 | 0.68% | | 布伦特原油 | 61.22 | 60.80 | 0.69% | | 纳斯达克 | 23419.08 | 23235.63 | 0.78% | | 美原油 | 57.85 | 57.33 | 0.90% | | LmeS铝 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-12 IEA⾃5⽉来⾸次下调原油过剩预期，化 ⼯仍受到供给端拖累 煤炭和原油价格延续偏弱格局。我国焦煤期货主力合约价格近期不断 下探，就基本面而言，生产稳定，需求则低于季节性常规表现，港口库存 持续累积，这是煤炭价格的主要利空点。国际原油价格近期也震荡走弱， 有风险资产的拖累，也有俄罗斯原油买家开始逐步涌现带来的利空，因俄 油的贴水开始更加具备经济性。国际能源署最新自5月以来首次下调过剩 预期，背后的原因是有：OPEC+上月暂停增产的决定、对该组织竞争对手 产量的微幅下调，以及全球石油消费前景的改善。 板块逻辑： 化工产业链条品种价格跟随原料同步走弱。财联社报道，我国中央经 济工作会议近期召开，会议确立了制定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整 治"内卷式"竞争的方针，这一度在11日的日盘对化工有拉升作用。回归 石化产业自身，供给压力依旧高企，美国炼厂开工率快速回升至94.5%， 中国主营炼厂开工也见底回升；芳烃端PTA的开工基本周度持平，苯乙烯 开工周度略降；聚烯烃维持高开工，以塑料为例，呈现供给增加、需求萎 缩、成本 ...

Group 1 - The domestic zinc market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for Shanghai zinc futures opening at 22,020.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 22,070.00 CNY and a low of 21,915.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.17% [1] - According to Zhengxin Futures, there is a tendency for oversupply in the zinc market due to stable demand and increasing supply, although the realization of this oversupply depends on the transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which will take time for internal adjustments [1] - Five Minerals Futures noted that domestic zinc smelting enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, while most downstream zinc enterprises also operated normally, with some zinc alloy companies taking longer breaks [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures indicated that the domestic demand peak season is not strong, advising cautious holding of previous short positions and recommending selling hedges to lock in profits, with a medium to long-term bearish outlook on zinc due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [2] - The focus for Shanghai zinc is on the range of 21,800 to 22,400 CNY/ton, while for London zinc, the range is set at 2,900 to 3,000 USD/ton [2]

8月7日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中沪锌期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约小幅上 涨1.10%，报22575.00元/吨。 供应方面，据了解，受新疆、河北等多地矿山产量增长影响，7月SMM锌精矿环比增长显著，但8月四 川、云南等地存在矿山检修，8月锌精矿产量或环比小幅下滑。 需求方面，新湖期货分析称，上周锌下游开工率明显回落，创近四年低位，需求呈现阶段性透支表现。 下游原料库存下降，成品库存维持相对低位，呈现主动降库表现。 后市来看，铜冠金源期货表示，基本面未有新增矛盾，下游前期低位补库后当前以消化库存为主，采买 积极性不佳，本周或维持累库，关注今日三方数据。短期降息预期提振锌价弱反弹修整，但过剩预期较 强，预计反弹高度有限。 宏观方面，据中财期货介绍，美国7月非农数据意外爆冷，且大幅下修前两个月的就业数据引发市场对 就业市场降温担忧，目前市场大幅提升美联储9月降息可能，美元指数小幅承压。国内政治局会议结果 相对不及市场预期，无明显增量政策，且叠加海内外制造业PMI表现均偏弱，经济增长动能有所减弱。 ...