Core Insights - Global stock markets experienced a significant drop last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.5%, yet it still recorded a 4% increase for the month. This raises questions about the market's reaction to a single day's decline [3] - The A50 futures index surged by 3% overnight, and the Hong Kong stock market opened 2% higher on Monday, indicating a potential rebound for the A-shares [1][5] - Historical data suggests that A-shares have over a 70% probability of rebounding in the week following futures settlement days, which supports the expectation of a market recovery [5] Market Behavior - Retail investors exhibited panic selling during the market downturn, with many liquidating positions, while those who adopted a buy-the-dip strategy benefited from subsequent rebounds [2][5] - The performance of technology stocks has been volatile, with some investors losing 30% by chasing prices during declines, while others profited by buying at lower prices [2][5] - The comparison of stock prices between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks shows discrepancies, with some companies trading significantly lower in Hong Kong, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5] Investment Strategy - The commentary emphasizes the importance of patience in investment, advocating for maintaining core positions while trading around them to capitalize on market fluctuations [5][7] - The expectation is that A-shares will likely open more than 1% higher on Monday, suggesting that those who sold during the panic may miss out on recovery opportunities [7] - The advice to focus on dividend stocks and index funds is highlighted as a more stable investment strategy compared to speculative trading [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market decline has shattered retail investors' expectations of a bull market, with significant capital outflows observed while institutions increase long positions in stock index futures, raising questions about market sentiment and panic selling [1][3][5]. Market Trends - A50 index futures showed significant fluctuations, impacting A-share movements, with historical data indicating a correlation between A50 performance and A-share opening trends [3][7]. - A total of 201.7 billion yuan was net withdrawn from A-shares over three days, with a single-day outflow of 132.9 billion yuan, indicating a substantial capital flight [3][11]. Institutional Behavior - Institutions have increased long positions in stock index futures by 2,247 contracts, suggesting a potential divergence in market sentiment amid rumors of upcoming regulatory meetings [5][19]. - The A50 index futures trading volume has decreased significantly, accounting for less than 15% of the total A-share trading volume in 2024, indicating a decline in its influence on A-share pricing [15][17]. Technical Analysis - The market has been oscillating above the 3,800-point level for eight weeks, with significant resistance noted around the 3,900-4,000 point range [5][7]. - Current market indicators suggest a potential downward trend, with expectations of the Shanghai Composite Index possibly breaking below 3,774 points [13][15]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment is increasingly polarized, complicating market dynamics, with many reacting emotionally to A50 index fluctuations without understanding the underlying causes [17][19]. - Experienced investors are advised to monitor various indicators, including trading volume and market trends, rather than solely focusing on A50 index futures [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has a significant impact on the A-share market, with recent declines in the Hang Seng Index raising concerns for investors ahead of the A-share market's opening [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both opening lower, causing anxiety among investors [1] - A-share market showed a pessimistic trend before the holiday, with over 4,000 stocks declining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit falling to around 50 [3] - The A50 futures index dropped over 2% at one point, indicating a weakening sentiment in the market [6] Group 2: External Influences - The overall performance of Asian stock markets was poor, with the Nikkei 225 index falling over 1% and the Korean Composite Index also declining [3] - External factors, including changes in the U.S. stock index futures and rising gold prices, have led to increased risk aversion among investors [6] Group 3: Upcoming Events - June is expected to be eventful for the A-share market, with significant events such as the optimization of the ChiNext Index and the Lujiazui Forum scheduled for mid-June [5] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting could also have a profound impact on global capital markets, influencing A-share performance [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The performance of the Hong Kong market may lead to a cautious opening for the A-share market, with the potential for a low opening followed by a recovery depending on the willingness of new capital to enter the market [3][8] - Despite short-term challenges, the A-share market is likely to remain in a trend of oscillating upward movement, with opportunities arising from sector rotations and increased trading volume [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [1][2] Group 1 - Following the court's ruling, the Trump administration has filed an appeal, with White House spokesperson Kush DeSai condemning the decision and asserting that non-elected judges should not dictate responses to national emergencies [2] - The court's decision allows the administration up to 10 days to halt the implementation of the tariff policy, although the specific timing and method for stopping the tariffs remain unclear [2] - On April 2, the White House declared a national emergency aimed at enhancing U.S. competitive advantage and protecting national and economic security [2] Group 2 - In response to the court ruling, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping below $3,250 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index rose above the 100 mark [1] - U.S. stock index futures saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq futures up by 1.8%, S&P 500 futures up by 1.44%, and Dow futures up by 1.09% [1] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher by 0.01%, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also showing minor increases [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [1][7] - Following the court's ruling, the Trump administration has filed an appeal, with White House spokesperson Kush DeSai condemning the decision and asserting that non-elected judges should not dictate responses to national emergencies [7] - The court's ruling allows the administration up to 10 days to halt the imposition of tariffs, although the specific timing and method for stopping the tariff policy remain unclear [7] Group 2 - On April 2, the White House announced a national emergency to enhance U.S. competitiveness, protect sovereignty, and strengthen national and economic security [8] - As a result of the court ruling, U.S. stock index futures have seen significant gains, with Nasdaq futures up 1.8%, S&P 500 futures up 1.44%, and Dow futures up 1.09% [3] - In the A-share market, indices opened slightly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.03%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.15%, particularly in sectors like EDA, autonomous vehicles, and biomass energy [4]

今天港股阳包阴，继续涨，a50的期指也还在涨。 这个幅度非常可观，有仓位的股民看了肯定暗自高兴，只要周一不是大暴跌，基本上节后（周二）开盘大涨稳了，曾经看似遥不可及的3500，很有可能开 盘就已经在脚下。 这两天老多人来问我对接下来的行情怎么预测，我的回答都是不知道，实事求是，不知道就是不知道。从来没见过a股类似的行情，所以也想象不出它之 后会怎么发展，这种时候提出任何建议都不合适。既不想鼓吹你们进场，也不想提示风险，因为追高被套了和踏空赚少了，本质上都是损失。 现在大盘动辄就是几千个股涨停，看错一天的代价就是10%，都不敢乱看了。 我在这里倒是有两套方法论可以给诸位分享。一是涨跌对等原则，即当初下跌行情里你是怎么扛下来的，那涨回去的时候也就怎么捂回去。不要下跌的时 候满仓死扛，反弹的时候老是手痒做波段，仓位越做越少。现在交易软件都能看个股的历史明细，查查你曾经买入的点位，做到左右对称，这样对自己也 算是一个交代。 有很多读者反应自己在新浪或者东方财富看到的a50行情，有时候涨跌情况和我说的不一样。这是因为这些平台的统计区间不一致造成的，a50一天交易20 个小时，人家那边也不看北京时间，所以不同的起始时间会 ...