土耳其央行日前表示，该行将维持2025年底通胀预期在24%不变，本次通胀预测被设定为"中期目 标"，"除非出现重大突发情况，否则目标不会调整"。 数据显示，土耳其年度通胀率已在7月降至33.5%，为2021年11月以来最低水平，较去年5月75.5%的峰 值大幅回落。 "过去央行将中期目标当作预测，但由于通胀高度不确定，不得不频繁修订。"土央行行长卡拉汗表 示，"未来将把两者区分开。" 货币紧缩立场将延续 土央行今年7月重启降息，将基准利率下调300个基点至43%。自2023年以来，该利率一直维持在40%以 上。土央行最新市场参与者调查显示，年底政策利率或降至36.2%。 "但在真正实现价格稳定前，土央行将继续维持紧缩立场。"卡拉汗表示，紧缩政策已逐步缓解通胀压 力，国内需求持续放缓，需求走弱带来的通缩效应正在增强。今年一季度私人消费增速明显减弱，对整 体经济增长的贡献较紧缩前期显著下降。 与此同时，净出口对经济活动的作用趋于平衡。初步数据显示，土耳其7月外贸平衡改善，有助于维持 经常账户赤字的温和水平。 "第二季度经常账户赤字占国内生产总值的比重约为1.3%。"卡拉汗说，预计2025年全年该比例将保持在 长期 ...

Group 1 - Brazil is a major exporter of coffee and orange juice [1] - Tariffs may increase domestic market supply and create a deflationary effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, stated that the tariff policy tends to have a deflationary effect [1] Group 1 - The current tariff policy is expected to influence inflation rates negatively, contributing to a deflationary environment [1]

Group 1 - Richmond Fed President Barkin warns that while businesses may want to pass on tariff costs through price increases, consumer capacity is nearing its limit, making this strategy difficult to implement [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates and noted rising inflation and unemployment risks amid increased tariffs under the Trump administration, with overall economic uncertainty also on the rise [1] - Barkin believes the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, with consumer spending and business investment performing well, despite weak consumer confidence indicators [1] Group 2 - President Trump’s statement about imposing an 80% tariff on China has caused market volatility, leading to declines in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices [2] - The upcoming U.S.-China talks in Switzerland mark the first formal discussions since the escalation of trade tensions [2] - Despite previous high tariffs imposed by Trump, he announced a 90-day negotiation buffer, and a recent trade agreement with the UK did not meet the expected comprehensive standards [2]