Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey maintains its medium-term inflation target at 24% for the end of 2025, despite a significant drop in annual inflation to 33.5% in July from a peak of 75.5% in May of the previous year [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Central Bank of Turkey has restarted interest rate cuts, lowering the benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July 2023, with expectations that it may drop to 36.2% by the end of the year [1][2] - The Central Bank emphasizes a continued tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved, as domestic demand is slowing and the deflationary effects from weakened demand are increasing [1][3] - The core inflation indicators have shown a temporary rise due to regular price adjustments in the service sector, particularly in housing, hotels, and dining [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and External Factors - The current account deficit was approximately 1.3% of GDP in the second quarter, with expectations that it will remain below long-term averages in 2025, although energy prices and global trade policies pose potential risks [2] - Turkey's economic growth is projected to be 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, which is lower than the previous quarter's growth of 3% [3] - The International Monetary Fund highlights that Turkey's inflation rate remains high and poses challenges to economic growth and financial stability, with structural pressures still unresolved [4]

Group 1 - David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, criticizes the Federal Reserve for being "seriously behind" in monetary policy adjustments and calls for immediate large-scale interest rate cuts to address potential economic slowdown risks [1][2] - Zervos emphasizes that the current monetary policy is overly tight and needs aggressive easing to support the labor market and stimulate economic growth, despite the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising to 3.3% year-on-year in July [1][2] - He suggests that a reduction of 200 basis points in interest rates is acceptable, considering the long-term deflationary effects of artificial intelligence and technological advancements [1][2] Group 2 - Zervos warns that continued delays by the Federal Reserve could lead to significant deterioration in the job market, predicting that timely monetary easing could create an additional 1 million jobs within a year [2] - He advocates for the inclusion of more professionals who truly understand market operations in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - The market currently anticipates a rate cut in September, with a preference for a moderate adjustment of 25 basis points, while Zervos and other advocates for aggressive easing are intensifying the focus on this policy shift [2]

Group 1 - Brazil is a major exporter of coffee and orange juice [1] - Tariffs may increase domestic market supply and create a deflationary effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, stated that the tariff policy tends to have a deflationary effect [1] Group 1 - The current tariff policy is expected to influence inflation rates negatively, contributing to a deflationary environment [1]

Group 1 - Richmond Fed President Barkin warns that while businesses may want to pass on tariff costs through price increases, consumer capacity is nearing its limit, making this strategy difficult to implement [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates and noted rising inflation and unemployment risks amid increased tariffs under the Trump administration, with overall economic uncertainty also on the rise [1] - Barkin believes the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, with consumer spending and business investment performing well, despite weak consumer confidence indicators [1] Group 2 - President Trump’s statement about imposing an 80% tariff on China has caused market volatility, leading to declines in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices [2] - The upcoming U.S.-China talks in Switzerland mark the first formal discussions since the escalation of trade tensions [2] - Despite previous high tariffs imposed by Trump, he announced a 90-day negotiation buffer, and a recent trade agreement with the UK did not meet the expected comprehensive standards [2]