Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current market conditions, characterized by a lack of selling pressure and a high concentration of trading in large tech stocks, may suggest an overly optimistic sentiment among investors, potentially leading to a market correction [1][4][5] - The S&P 500 index has reached record highs multiple times recently, with a notable increase of approximately 26% since late April, yet the volume of declining stocks has dropped to its lowest level since 2020, indicating a possible overconfidence in the market [1][4] - Historical data shows that similar market conditions in the past have often preceded declines of at least 5% in the S&P 500, suggesting that a correction could be on the horizon, although it may be limited to a 3% to 5% range [1][3] Group 2 - Investors are currently favoring aggressive sectors such as technology and finance over defensive sectors, reflecting a strong risk appetite, which may lead them to view any market pullback as a buying opportunity [3][4] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen to its lowest level since late February, indicating a decrease in demand for protection against market downturns, which could be interpreted as a sign of investor complacency [4][5] - Despite the low VIX levels, it is suggested that this does not indicate a lack of awareness regarding risks, as investors have already priced in known uncertainties such as trade tensions and economic growth concerns [5]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of committee members of the Bank of Mexico emphasized that due to current trade uncertainties, international financial markets continue to exhibit volatility [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Implications** - The committee's discussions reflect concerns regarding the impact of trade uncertainties on monetary policy decisions [1] - **Market Volatility** - There is a noted persistence of volatility in international financial markets, which is a significant factor for economic stability [1] - **Trade Uncertainties** - Current trade uncertainties are highlighted as a critical issue affecting both domestic and international economic outlooks [1]

Group 1 - Global banks, including top U.S. banks, are expected to see a 10% growth in market revenue, driven by traders capitalizing on changes in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The forecast is based on a 15% increase in trading revenue for 12 global banks in Q1, which includes major players like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs [1][2] - Executives from Bank of America and Citigroup anticipate mid to high single-digit percentage growth in market revenue for Q2 following a strong Q1 performance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that market revenue may exceed expectations when major U.S. banks report Q2 earnings next week, with significant trading activity noted after President Trump's tariff announcement in April [2] - Tradeweb Markets reported a 38.6% year-over-year increase in average daily trading volume in April, reaching $2.7 trillion, following the tariff policy announcement [2] - Mollie Devine from Crisil Coalition Greenwich noted that volatility is beneficial for market revenue, with tariff announcements acting as positive catalysts for trading departments [2] Group 3 - Stock trading revenue is projected to grow by 18% year-over-year in Q2, while bond trading revenue is expected to increase by 5% [3] - Analysts indicate that ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs, interest rates, and geopolitical factors are sustaining high levels of trading activity [3] - Predictions suggest that trading revenue for major U.S. banks will grow by 8% in the first half of the year, slowing to 5% in the second half, with low single-digit growth expected next year [3]

全球领先的衍生品市场芝商所(CME Group)今日宣布，其2025年第二季度国际市场日均交易量达到创纪 录的920万份合约，同比增长18%。该数据涵盖美国以外所有市场的交易，增长主要由欧洲、中东和非 洲地区以及亚太地区创纪录的季度日均交易量推动。利率、股指、能源、农产品和金属产品国际市场季 度交易量均录得新高，分别增长14%、38%、23%、3%和14%。 芝商所资深董事总经理兼首席商务官Julie Winkler表示："在这个波动性加剧的时期，广大市场参与者再 次选择芝商所，管理风险，把握跨资产类别的机会。我们的客户持续依赖我们具有影响力的全球基准和 全天候流动性，使其能在各个时区高效应对任何市场重大事件。" 欧洲、中东和非洲地区2025年第二季度日均交易量创下670万份合约的新高，同比增长15%。增长得益 于该地区股指、能源、利率及金属产品创纪录的季度日均交易量，分别增长43%、15%、12%和5%。 亚太地区2025年第二季度日均交易量达到了220万份合约，较去年同期增长30%。其中，能源产品增长 67%，金属产品增长34%，农产品增长13%。 加拿大地区2025年第二季度日均交易量为19万份合约，同 ...

欧洲央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy：密切关注外汇的波动性。 欧洲央行在全球不确定性中必须保持务实与灵活。 美国关税不会带来通胀影响。 欧洲央行目前在利率和通胀方面处于良好位置。 通胀低于预期的风险正在增加。 欧元走强或加大通胀低于预期的风险。 ...

七月课程表 全天候捕捉美国股市波动性机遇 (ZH WebEx ) by Frank Ling 全球贸易摩擦加剧，美股波动性攀升！如何利用盘前、盘后及夜间交易（中国白天）把握先机 查找您所需的培训，充分利用 LSEG 解决方案来获取最大价值。 本月我们安排了一些线下课堂和网络课程培训，以帮助您充分利用它们。 欲在线浏览课程，请扫描下方二维码： 扫描二维码，即刻报名 （推荐使用网页浏览器打开） Asset Management Datastream API基础（ZH WebEx）by Frank Ling 学习如何通过Datastream的DSWS API下载数据，包括经济指标、历史股价、Point in Time等数据。 时间： 2025年7 月17日 15:00 北京时间 Data Solutions 时间： 2025年7 月7日 16:00 北京时间 债券 Copilot：利用 LSEG Data Libraries 和 LangChain 进行债券搜索 (ZH WebEx) by Frank Ling 债券 Copilot 是一种创新解决方案，它结合了 LSEG 数据搜索 API，大语言模型和 LangC ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi emphasizes the need to be cautious about the rising risk premium associated with ultra-long-term government bonds and the increasing volatility of the yield curve, which could inadvertently trigger a broad transmission of monetary tightening effects in the market [1] Group 1 - The risk premium for ultra-long-term government bonds is on the rise [1] - There is an increase in the volatility of the yield curve [1] - These factors may lead to unintended consequences in the form of monetary tightening effects spreading throughout the market [1]

日本央行审议委员高田创：鉴于关税可能导致美国经济放缓，需密切关注美国与日本货币政策立场分歧 可能带来的风险，这可能引发市场高波动性，尤其是在外汇市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Pulte, emphasizes the need to closely monitor the volatility of cryptocurrencies [1] Group 1 - The agency's focus on cryptocurrency volatility indicates a growing concern regarding its impact on the housing finance market [1] - Pulte's statement reflects a broader trend among financial regulators to scrutinize the implications of digital assets on traditional financial systems [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is showing widespread improvements across various aspects, as noted by Joanne Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan survey [1] Group 1 - Recent easing of tariff levels and trade policy volatility has contributed to consumer confidence, leading to a reduction in their concerns about potential economic downturns [1]