据悉，高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场，被视为已故首相安倍晋三的门徒。她呼吁保持宽松货币 政策，认为日本央行不应加息。策略师指出，高市早苗对刺激计划的支持立场有望提振股市，但同时可 能会给日元带来压力。策略师还表示，对日本央行政策的预期可能支撑短期政府债券，而较长期债券则 可能因财政支出增加的担忧而受挫。 他们补充称，高市早苗对经济安全的关注可能会使国防、关键资源和技术股受益。在其领导下，与美国 贸易紧张局势重燃的风险有限，双方在国防、造船和网络安全方面的合作可能会加强。 Lombard Odier Singapore高级宏观策略师Homin Lee表示："我们认为，日本国债期限溢价有适度扩大的 空间，且东证股价指数周一可能因市场对高市早苗领导下可能出台的亲增长政策举措的预期而呈现积极 的价格走势。""美元兑日元可能面临短期上行压力，因为普遍看法是，高市早苗仍然致力于通货再膨 胀，尽管她在自民党领导层竞选前后的相关政策辩论中已缓和了立场。" Homin Lee表示，虽然高市早苗已排除了可能削减消费税的做法，"但关于在她领导下自民党少数派执政 框架稳定性的问题，可能会给日本国债期限溢价带来轻微的上行压力"。 ...

Group 1 - The recent performance of A-shares is driven by multiple economic stabilization policies, improved valuations, and positive earnings expectations for listed companies [1] - Various policies implemented by the Chinese government aim to curb excessive competition, which is expected to enhance corporate profit margins and improve the overall economic fundamentals [3] - The Chinese government has introduced over 50 measures across 16 industries to promote sustainable industry development and stronger corporate earnings [5] Group 2 - The valuation of major assets in the Chinese stock market remains low compared to historical levels, making A-share blue-chip stocks more cost-effective relative to high P/E ratios of large-cap tech companies in the US [7] - The dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is around 22 times, while the MSCI China Index is approximately 12 times, and A-shares are slightly higher at around 13 times, indicating that they are not overly expensive even after recent gains [9] - The outlook for Chinese securities is positive due to potential foreign capital inflows, stabilization of international geopolitical risks and tariff issues, and supply-side reforms targeting excessive competition [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current supply-demand imbalance in China continues to fuel deflation, indicating that rebalancing is not yet achieved [1][2] - Recent price competition in the automotive sector has led to market volatility, raising concerns about China's growth and reflation outlook [2] - Industrial profit growth recovery is primarily driven by modest volume improvement and cost reductions, with subdued pricing power [4][10] Summary by Sections Industrial Profit Analysis - Industrial profit growth has shown a meaningful recovery, reaching 3.3% in April 2025 from a trough of -27% in September 2024, largely due to a high base effect [10] - Sales volume growth has increased, supported by rising exports and consumer goods trade-in programs [10] - Weak pricing power persists, with continued margin compression and a sequential decline in PPI [10][11] Investment Trends - Despite a slowdown in investment growth in overcapacity sectors, overall industrial investment growth remains high, significantly above GDP growth [12][14] - The report highlights that slower investment growth needs to be complemented by a rise in consumption and export demand to create conditions for reflation [13][14] Structural Issues - Overcapacity is identified as a systemic issue requiring deep structural reforms, driven by local government incentives that promote excessive capacity buildup [20] - The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive reforms beyond social welfare to increase household disposable income and reduce the household saving rate, which is among the highest globally [25][26] Policy Recommendations - Policymakers are urged to enhance domestic consumption support to mitigate deflationary pressures, especially with potential export declines in the second half of 2025 [14][24] - The report suggests that social welfare reforms could lead to a decline in the household saving rate by 3-5 percentage points, thereby raising aggregate demand [25]