Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing a simultaneous "shutdown wave" and "price increase wave" from late 2025 to early 2026, with major packaging paper companies like Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng initiating large-scale maintenance and capacity reduction [1] - Major white card and cultural paper manufacturers, including Bohui, APP, and Universal Paper, have collectively announced price increases, highlighting differences in cost structures and supply-demand relationships among various paper types [1] Production and Pricing Dynamics - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to reduce production by approximately 310,000 tons in the first quarter, while Shanying International will halt 12 corrugated paper machines for 5-10 days in January [1] - Lee & Man Paper will conduct maintenance on five paper machines in Guangdong for 15-22 days in February, driven by a decline in waste paper prices, which have dropped by 260-400 RMB/ton since December [1] - Bohui Paper and APP will raise industrial paper prices by 200 RMB/ton starting January 1, 2026, while Universal Paper will increase prices for white and food card paper by the same amount in mid-December, due to high costs of wood pulp and energy [1] Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as an additional benefit for the industry, as it will lower the import costs of pulp, thereby enhancing company profits [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Datong Securities indicates that the paper industry is benefiting from a "price increase bonus, supply contraction, and policy regulation," which strengthens the supply-demand balance [2] - CICC anticipates a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with the capacity expansion of boxboard and corrugated paper nearing completion, potentially leading to a recovery in capacity utilization and price levels [2] - CITIC Securities notes that the appreciation of the RMB will decrease import costs for raw materials like pulp, improving gross margins in processing and trading sectors [2] Company Developments - Bohui Paper announced a price increase of 200 RMB/ton for industrial paper starting January 1, 2026, and plans to expand its chemical pulp production capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons with a total investment of 1.70066 billion RMB [3] - Sun Paper, a leading player in the domestic paper industry, is accelerating the construction of several projects, including a 400,000-ton specialty paper project and a 300,000-ton living paper project, expected to enter trial production in Q3-Q4 of 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's operational efficiency and employee engagement are improving, supported by its partnership with Lee & Man Paper, enhancing its long-term competitiveness [1] Investment Highlights - The profit forecast has been adjusted, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Expected EPS for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 0.19, 0.42, and 0.61 yuan respectively. The average PB of comparable companies is 1.40X, and considering the recovery in white card paper demand, a PB of 1.3X is assigned for 2025, leading to a target price of 7.28 yuan [2] - Bohui Paper has a total paper production capacity of 4.1 million tons across its Shandong and Jiangsu bases. The Shandong base primarily produces white card paper, box board, and cultural paper with a capacity of 2.1 million tons, while the Jiangsu base focuses on white card paper, with a capacity expansion to 2 million tons [2] Strategic Positioning - Bohui Paper and Lee & Man Paper have established a north-south production layout. Lee & Man's white card paper capacity is concentrated in Ningbo and Guangxi, coordinating national sales and improving production, sales, and logistics efficiency. In 2024, Lee & Man's white card paper revenue is expected to be approximately 22.1 billion yuan, with a sales volume of about 4.85 million tons [3] - The gross profit margin for Lee & Man's white card paper is projected to be over 4 percentage points higher than Bohui's, with margins of 14.9% and 9.4% respectively in 2024. Following recent price increases, Bohui's white card paper profitability is expected to improve slightly, with potential for further profit expansion if paper prices rise [3]

Core Viewpoint - The white card paper industry is experiencing a price increase due to operational pressures and anticipated seasonal demand, following a trend of price declines earlier in the year [1][3][6]. Price Increase Announcement - Six major white card paper companies announced a price increase of 100 yuan/ton effective September 1, 2025, following previous price adjustments earlier in the year [1][2]. - This marks the third price increase notification for white card paper in 2025 [2]. Reasons for Price Increase - The price adjustments are attributed to rising operational costs and a recovery in demand, particularly as the traditional demand season approaches [3][6]. - APP (China) cited the need to maintain normal operations and product quality as a reason for the price hike, while Nine Dragons Paper pointed to improving market demand [3][6]. Market Conditions - The white card paper market has been under pressure, with prices at a low point for the year and theoretical profitability in a negative state [1][6]. - The overall performance of the paper industry has been declining, with only 6 out of 20 listed paper companies reporting profit growth in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. Impact of Corrugated Paper Prices - The increase in white card paper prices is influenced by the rising prices of corrugated paper, which saw significant price hikes in August due to increased raw material costs [4][6]. - The average gross margin for the corrugated paper industry improved slightly in August, indicating a potential positive trend for the overall paper market [4]. Future Outlook - The sustainability of the price increase remains uncertain, as the market is still expanding, and demand recovery is crucial for the success of the price hikes [7]. - Analysts suggest that if demand does not improve, there may be downward pressure on prices, with expectations of a potential decline of 0.15% to 0.53% in average prices for September compared to August [7].

Core Viewpoint - The white card paper market is experiencing a price increase due to operational pressures and an anticipated demand recovery, following a period of price decline and industry losses [1][7][8]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Six major white card paper companies announced a price increase of 100 yuan/ton effective September 1, 2025, following previous price hikes earlier in the year [1][2]. - This marks the third price adjustment for white card paper in 2025, with earlier increases attributed to rising operational costs and a need to align prices with actual usage value [2][8]. - The price of corrugated paper has also risen significantly, with increases ranging from 130 to 260 yuan/ton since August, driven by higher raw material costs [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The white card paper market has been under pressure, with theoretical profitability in the industry being negative, leading to operational challenges for companies [1][7]. - Demand is expected to increase due to seasonal factors, including upcoming holidays and specific orders, which may help alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3][8]. - The overall performance of the paper industry has been poor, with only 6 out of 20 listed companies reporting profit growth in the first half of 2025, while others faced significant declines [1][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The success of the recent price increases will depend on the improvement of market demand and the willingness of downstream buyers to accept higher prices [8]. - Despite rising costs supporting price increases, demand remains weak, leading to cautious market sentiment and potential downward pressure on prices [8].