Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has not specified the extent to which it plans to advance quantitative tightening (QT) in its June monetary policy meeting, indicating a long way to go before the next interest rate hike [1] - The central bank's mid-term review of its bond purchasing plan aligns with market expectations, but no plans for the period after April 2027 have been proposed, leaving the scale of bond purchase reductions unclear [1] - The Ministry of Finance's anticipated adjustments to Japan's government bond issuance plan may significantly impact supply and demand, despite the expected reduction in ultra-long-term government bond supply being largely in line with market expectations [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan has not provided any information regarding the scale of bond purchase reductions for the period after April 2027, and a policy committee member has opposed slowing the reduction pace, suggesting that cuts may continue beyond this date [2] - The potential for monthly purchase levels to drop significantly below 2 trillion yen could have a slight negative impact on bond supply and demand [2] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase schedule for July to September 2025 shows no reduction in planned purchases of 10 to 25-year maturity bonds, indicating a cautious approach to reducing ultra-long-term bond purchases [1]

自2018年履新以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔始终将美国财政轨迹的"结构性失衡"作为核心政策关切，在公开场合累计提 及该议题超30次。尽管美联储法定职责局限于货币政策制定与金融监管，但其对财政健康度的持续预警，折射出美国经济 治理体系面临的深层矛盾。 白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰试图淡化影响，称"3%增速预期将创造4万亿美元增量税收"。但该预测面临三大挑战：生产率 增速持续低于2%历史均值、劳动力参与率改善空间有限、以及地缘政治冲击对资本支出的抑制效应。更关键的是，IMF测 算显示，即便实现3%增速，利息支出占财政收入比重仍将从当前15%升至2030年的23%。 政策博弈进入关键窗口期 在财政整顿路径上，两党存在根本分歧。民主党主张通过企业税改和富人税筹集3.6万亿美元，而共和党推动将2017年减税 政策永久化。鲍威尔在5月7日参议院听证会上重申中立立场："美联储不会就具体政策组合表态，但必须指出，当前债务动 态不可持续。" 长期财政轨迹的制度性风险 鲍威尔在2018年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上首次系统阐述担忧："人口老龄化与医疗成本攀升正在侵蚀税基，联邦债务占 GDP比重已突破78%临界值。"这一诊断在2024 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's reduction in bond purchases has significantly impacted the demand for Japanese government bonds, as evidenced by a drop in the average bid-to-cover ratio from 2.96 to 2.5 in the recent auction [4] - The bid-to-cover ratio for 20-year Japanese government bonds fell to its lowest level since August 2012, indicating weakened demand [4] - The "tail" difference, which measures the gap between the average winning price and the lowest winning price, reached 1.14, the longest since 1987, signaling further demand weakness [4] Group 2 - Despite foreign investors purchasing a record amount of ultra-long Japanese government bonds in April, their market share remains small, as domestic life insurance companies are reducing their holdings of domestic bonds [8] - Strategist Mark Cranfield noted that while global funds are flowing into Japanese long-term bonds, ultra-long bonds are facing a similar situation to domestic buyers withdrawing from the market [8] - Senior strategist Katsutoshi Inadome expressed disappointment over the market conditions, highlighting that the sell-off has spread to previously stable 20-year bonds due to fiscal expansion risks and declining liquidity [8] Group 3 - As Japanese government bond yields rise sharply, the Bank of Japan plans to meet with representatives from banks and securities companies to gauge their views on the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) [9] - The auction results come amid increased market volatility, partly due to U.S. President Trump's policy actions, and traders are monitoring the impact of Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. rating on Japan's fiscal policy discussions [9] - Politician Shigeru Ishiba expressed caution regarding additional fiscal spending amid rising national borrowing costs, emphasizing the poor state of Japan's fiscal situation, which he claims is worse than Greece's [9]

1. 4月24日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.47%，标普500指数期货跌0.31%，纳指期货跌0.26%。 杰富瑞：美股"高光"不再，后市或继续下挫。杰富瑞全球股票策略主管克里斯托弗·伍德(Christopher Wood)表示，美股早已过了"黄金时期"，投资者应做好 准备，迎接美股、美债以及美元的进一步下跌。伍德指出，美股市值在明晟全球指数(MSCI All Country World Index)中的占比在去年12月末达到历史最高水 平。他认为"美股已见顶"，并将其与1989年的日本股市相提并论，"美元已开启长期贬值趋势，这将降低美股市值在全球股市中的占比" 。伍德建议投资者 在重新平衡投资组合时，考虑增加对中国、印度和欧洲资产的配置。这位资深策略师对美国市场的悲观态度与弥漫在全球的悲观情绪相呼应。 哈马克发声：美联储应继续缩表，货币政策需保持稳定。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝•哈马克周三表示，当前形势仍然支持美联储继续缩减资产负债表。她还表 示，在巨大的不确定性之下，现在不是改变货币政策的时候。哈马克表示，在货币政策上"现在不是先发制人的好时机"，并补充说，现在是时候保持耐心 ...