Group 1: Market Trends - In October, rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed a trend of initially declining and then rebounding, driven by high inventory and weak demand in the first half, followed by macroeconomic improvements and inventory destocking in the latter half [1] - Looking ahead to November, demand may weaken marginally due to seasonal factors, but the extent is expected to be limited, with five major steel products likely to continue destocking [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the capacity replacement implementation measures, tightening the replacement ratio requirements, indicating that steel production capacity will face strict constraints in the medium to long term [2] - Daily molten iron output decreased from 2.4181 million tons at the beginning of October to 2.3636 million tons by the end of the month, with expectations of further declines in November due to demand expectations and profit conditions [2] Group 3: Export Performance - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative steel exports reached 98.6964 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, with September exports at 11.9593 million tons [3] - The export willingness of steel mills has increased due to a lack of significant domestic demand growth, and it is expected that direct steel exports will remain at a high level in November and December [3] Group 4: Domestic Demand - Overall domestic demand remains stable, with real estate demand for steel continuing to be weak, but infrastructure steel demand may see some recovery towards the end of the year [4] - Manufacturing investment showed a year-on-year growth of 4% from January to September 2025, indicating resilience in the sector [4] Group 5: Inventory Dynamics - Steel prices rebounded in July and August due to policy support, leading to high inventory levels for rebar and hot-rolled coils, but inventory destocking has been slow in September and October [5] - The last two weeks of October saw a resumption of destocking for rebar, suggesting that inventory pressure may gradually ease in November [5] Group 6: Raw Material Support - Raw material prices are expected to remain strong in November, driven by downstream restocking expectations, with low coal and coke inventories and slow recovery in domestic supply [6] - Iron ore prices are supported by a high basis and global pricing dynamics, benefiting from overseas interest rate cuts and macroeconomic improvements [6] Group 7: Price Outlook - Short-term steel prices are expected to continue adjusting due to concerns over inventory and demand, but with rising exports, domestic policy expectations, and strong cost support, the downside for rebar and hot-rolled coil prices is limited, with a rebound anticipated in November [8]

Report Title - "Threaded Steel: Discussing Expectations in the Off-season, Pay Attention to Rebound Opportunities for Steel Prices; Hot-rolled Coil: Discussing Expectations in the Off-season, Pay Attention to Rebound Opportunities for Steel Prices" [1] Report Core View - In the off-season, both threaded steel and hot-rolled coil should focus on the rebound opportunities of steel prices [1] Industry News - On October 23, Steel Union's weekly data showed that the output of threaded steel increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 8.37 tons; the total inventory of threaded steel decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 27.41 tons; the apparent demand of threaded steel was 6.26 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 11.18 tons, and the total increased by 17.32 tons [2] - In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, with a daily output of 2.4497 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, with a daily output of 2.2017 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a daily output of 4.1403 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the national cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.7335 million tons; pig iron production was 646 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.3658 million tons; steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0434 million tons [3] - In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, a 1.21 million tons increase from the previous ten days, an 8.2% increase; a 3.51 million tons increase from the beginning of the year, a 28.4% increase; a 60,000 tons increase from the same ten days of last month, a 0.6% increase; an 1.15 million tons increase from the same ten days of last year, a 7.8% increase; a 480,000 tons decrease from the same ten days of the year before last, a 2.9% decrease [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of threaded steel is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil is 0. The value range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 indicates the most bearish, and 2 indicates the most bullish [4] Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Market | Variety | Contract | Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Change in Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | RB2601 | 3,100 | 47 | 1.54 | 1,696,201 | 1,953,001 | -97,544 | | Hot-rolled Coil | HC2601 | 3,299 | 47 | 1.45 | 595,934 | 1,482,730 | -18,766 | [1] Spot Market | Variety | Region | Price (Yuan/ton) | Previous Day's Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | Shanghai | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | | | Hangzhou | 3280 | 3250 | 30 | | | Beijing | 3120 | 3100 | 20 | | | Guangzhou | 3310 | 3270 | 40 | | Hot-rolled Coil | Shanghai | 3330 | 3290 | 40 | | | Hangzhou | 3360 | 3330 | 30 | | | Tianjin | 3220 | 3200 | 20 | | | Guangzhou | 3300 | 3270 | 30 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | 2960 | 2930 | 30 | [1] Basis and Spread | Type | Value (Yuan/ton) | Previous Day's Value (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (RB2601) | 154 | 149 | 5 | | Basis (HC2601) | 40 | 44 | -4 | | RB2601 - RB2605 | -59 | -63 | 4 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | 13 | 15 | -2 | | HC2601 - RB2601 | 199 | 204 | -5 | | HC2605 - RB2605 | 153 | 156 | -3 | | Spot Coil-Threaded Steel Spread | 24 | -6 | 30 | [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having a short - term rebound potential while operating at a low level [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industry is operating at a low level with a short - term rebound potential. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Background - According to an agreement between China and the US, a Chinese delegation will hold economic and trade consultations with the US in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [2] Production Data - Steel Union's weekly data shows that rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 207.07 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 million tons to 322.46 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 8.37 million tons to 865.32 million tons [2] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's rebar production in September was 14.75 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the cumulative production from January to September was 143.387 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] Inventory Data - Rebar total inventory decreased by 18.94 million tons to 622.11 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 4.27 million tons to 414.92 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.41 million tons to 1554.85 million tons [2] Apparent Demand Data - Rebar apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons to 226.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 11.18 million tons to 326.73 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.32 million tons to 892.73 million tons [2] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - Rebar and hot - rolled coil had a small rebound yesterday. The weekly fundamentals were relatively stable, with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing, which had a limited impact on prices [2] - The recent increase in coking coal and coke at the raw material end drove steel prices from the cost side, and the China - US economic and trade consultations were also beneficial to the commodity market at the macro level [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term strategy is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [3] 3. Summary by Related Information Industry Data - There are over 300 electric furnaces in production nationwide with a capacity of nearly 200 million tons, and the proportion of electric furnace steel output to crude steel output has been around 10% in recent years [2] - In June, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - On July 14, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with an average profit loss of 92 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of 11 yuan/ton [2] Market Conditions - Yesterday, steel prices fluctuated. Favorable industrial policies boosted market sentiment, leading to a short - term continuous rebound in steel prices. The daily trading volume of building materials returned to over 100,000 tons, and the rise in raw materials also supported steel prices [2] - Currently, downstream demand has not changed much and remains weak [2] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try shorting on rebounds after the price rises [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term approach is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market News - US Commerce Secretary may meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded that both sides are in close communication at multiple levels on economic and trade concerns [3] - Shanxi's steel production restriction notice is still in the oral communication stage, with a projected production cut ratio of 10% - 13%, but the specific schedule is unclear [3] Production Data - Rebar production decreased by 4420 tons to 216660 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5000 tons to 323140 tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 12440 tons [3] Inventory Data - Rebar total inventory decreased by 4840 tons to 540370 tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 630 tons to 345560 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 350 tons to 1339580 tons [3] Demand Data - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 3370 tons to 221500 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1860 tons to 322510 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 12190 tons to 873070 tons [3] Market Analysis - Steel prices rose yesterday due to production restriction news, decreased production of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and rising raw material prices [3] - Inventory decline is limited, and building materials may enter the summer inventory accumulation period due to hot and rainy weather, with overall demand changing little [3] - Before demand improves, short - term strategy is to wait and see or try shorting on rebounds [3][4] Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests treating the steel price rebound as an opportunity to try short-selling [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content Steel Production and Inventory - In late June, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.129 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.45 million tons, a 4.7% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 1.0% increase from the same period last month [1] Steel Mill Operating Rates - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons from the previous week [1] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 51.05%, a decrease of 3.44 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 2.03 percentage points from the same period last year; the average operating rate was 66.87%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 3.12 percentage points from the same period last year [1] Steel Price Rebound Factors - The steel price rebounded from a low level due to an anti - involution storm in the market last week and some steel mills in Tangshan receiving production restriction notices. The positive candlestick on Wednesday brought some changes to the sluggish market [1] Impact on Rebound - Fundamentally, the operating rate declined and the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly. Macroscopically, there will be an important domestic meeting at the end of this month, and the market atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period. However, it is currently the off - season for demand, and high temperatures and rainfall in many places exist, which will drag down the height of the rebound to a certain extent [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on price rebounds [1][3] Group 3: Summary According to Key Information Steel Inventory - In late May, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises under the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association was 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons (6.4%) from the previous ten - day period, an increase of 2.93 million tons (23.7%) from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 10,000 tons (0.1%) from the same ten - day period of the previous month [2] Steel Production Indicators - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, unchanged from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous week [2] - The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 76.69%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.67 percentage points from the same period last year; the average capacity utilization rate was 58.7%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.41 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Steel Price and Market Situation - After the leaders of China and the United States had a phone call last week, releasing positive signals, the rebound of coking coal prices promoted the finished steel, and steel prices rebounded slightly after reaching a phased bottom [2] - However, last week's steel production remained at a high level, continuing the high - supply situation [2] - As it has entered the seasonal off - season, short - term demand is difficult to improve and may even decline further due to factors such as the temporary suspension of construction during the college entrance examination and increased rainfall in some areas [2] Later Focus - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the steel price may have a shock rebound, and it is advisable to try shorting at high prices after the rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - In early May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the steel inventory was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.1% increase from the same period last month. This week, the average cost of billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of 2,980 yuan/ton on May 14, the average profit of steel mills was 78 yuan/ton. On May 14, the ex - factory price of common square billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 30 yuan, reaching 2,980 yuan [1] - The finished products rebounded yesterday, with both varieties rising more than 1%. The A - share market rebounded, the financial market recovered, and the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the US was released, bringing macro - level benefits. However, the fundamental situation of finished products still requires cautious treatment. Currently, the molten iron output and steel mill operating rates are high, while the actual downstream demand is not strong, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand still exists [1] 原材料 (Raw Materials) - The view is that there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1]