Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. The short - term decline is due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction in the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. Technically, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction selection in the short term [2]. - The demand for iron ore is in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction. The global iron ore shipment is slightly rising but is expected to decline later due to southern hemisphere seasonal factors. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price is under pressure, but there may be support near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot Roll - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, the inventory continued to rise, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week; the spot price of hot - rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3260 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the later bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, and iron water production is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is affected by southern hemisphere seasonal factors, with the global shipment expected to decline. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory is rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. The price of Macfarlane powder (Qingdao Port) was 773 yuan/wet ton, down 2.03% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In late January 2026, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 717 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8 million tons, or 1.1%. It was 4 million tons less than at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 0.6%, and 17 million tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 2.3% [6]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to Indonesia's large - scale production reduction plan, local miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quotas issued to major miners last month were 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level [6].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro narrative is positive, the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, but the decline in domestic iron ore demand exceeds expectations, the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase, port inventories are expected to accumulate, the short - term trading focus shifts to the real end, price upside is limited, but restocking demand may support prices, and the market will fluctuate in the short term [4] - The price of the main iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will operate in the range of 770 - 800 RMB/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 USD/ton [4] - The strategy is to conduct range - based operations and use covered call options [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - Weekly shipments of foreign iron ore decreased slightly compared to the previous week, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and stable Brazilian shipments. According to seasonal patterns and this year's shipping targets of major mines, there will be a phased rush to meet the targets at the end of the year, and weekly shipments will increase month - on - month. The short - term arrival volume remains at a moderately high level and is higher than the same period last year, so the supply - side support is weak [4] Demand - Domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The steel mill profitability rate has rebounded after the decline in carbon element prices. There are both blast furnace overhauls and restarts this period. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. Overall, domestic steel mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday restocking cycle is about to start, with restocking demand expected to be continuously released [4] Inventory - The imported inventory at steel mills has increased month - on - month, but the steel mill inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar - denominated goods at steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventories have been continuously accumulating, mainly because the arrival volume has remained relatively high. It is expected that port inventories will continue to accumulate in December [4]

Report Summary of Iron Ore 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved. However, the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations, and the supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate overall. In the short term, the market trading focus has shifted to the reality, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has decreased slightly compared to the previous week. Among them, the shipment from Australia has declined slightly, and the shipment from Brazil has remained basically stable. According to seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased rush at the end of the year, and the weekly shipment volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of the arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term and is higher than the same period last year, and the support from the supply side is weak [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has continued to decline rapidly, and the weakening of demand has exceeded expectations. Based on the current production reduction efforts and restart plans, the molten iron volume may be close to the lowest level. The main reasons are the combined effects of environmental protection restrictions and annual maintenance. The daily average molten iron this period is 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron continues to be lower than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel mill end remains at a low level. The steel mill inventory this period has decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock. Currently, the restocking actions of steel mills are weak. Later, attention will be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar goods by steel mills will be fully launched. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained at a relatively high level. It is expected that the port inventory will still tend to accumulate in December [3]. Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore is in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Strategy - Operate within a range and use covered call options [4].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force is weakening, the fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, but the decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations. The supply side is generally stable with a slight increase. It is expected that the port inventory will tend to accumulate. The short - term market focus has shifted to the real - world situation, and the upside potential of prices is limited. However, restocking demand may support prices, and the market will be mainly in a volatile state in the short term. The price of the main iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will operate in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic Last week, the black - metal complex rebounded as the inventory pressure on finished products continued to ease, the valuation of the industrial chain recovered, and the strong spot price of iron ore supported the futures market. With the upcoming steel - mill restocking cycle, restocking demand may support prices to remain relatively strong [3]. Supply The weekly shipments of foreign iron ore increased significantly compared to the previous week, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, major mines will have a phased push to increase shipments at the end of the year, and the shipping volume will increase month - on - month. In terms of arrival volume, it remains at a moderately high level in the short term, and the support from the supply side is relatively weak [3]. Demand Domestic demand has continued to decline at an accelerating pace, with the decline exceeding expectations. Based on the current production - cut intensity and restart plans, the molten iron output may be approaching its lowest level. This is mainly due to the combined effects of environmental protection - related production restrictions and annual maintenance. The average daily molten iron output this period was 226.55 million tons, a decrease of 2.65 million tons compared to the previous period, and the absolute level of molten iron output has been lower than that of the same period last year. High - level maintenance mainly occurred in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Xinjiang, and Anhui. In Hebei, environmental protection - related production restrictions intensified, leading to an increase in steel - mill maintenance, while in other regions, it was mainly annual maintenance. Blast - furnace restarts occurred in Liaoning, Shanxi, Fujian, and Anhui, mainly after the completion of blast - furnace maintenance as planned. The decline in molten iron output this week was mainly due to the continued impact of blast - furnace maintenance from last week. Additionally, an individual steel mill in Hebei reduced production due to environmental protection - related production restrictions, and the blast - furnace restart plan in this region was postponed, which was also the main reason for the larger - than - expected decline in molten iron output [3]. Inventory The imported iron - ore inventory at steel mills remains at a relatively low level. The steel - mill inventory this period decreased compared to the previous period and is at the lowest level in recent years. High prices have suppressed the willingness to restock, and currently, steel mills' restocking actions are weak. Later, attention should be paid to when the full - scale restocking of US - dollar - denominated iron ore by steel mills will start. Port inventory has continued to accumulate, mainly because the arrival volume has remained relatively high. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3]. Strategy Adopt range - bound trading and use covered call options [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with significant inventory pressure. Steel production is expected to continue to decline slowly due to reduced mill margins and the end of the consumption peak. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market [2]. - For iron ore, as the consumption off - season approaches, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories are putting pressure on prices, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remains significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure for threaded bars is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Cost**: The recent sharp decline in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, but it has not yet broken out of the recent oscillation range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions can be held with a light position. If the market continues to decline and forms a new downward trend, appropriate position reduction or liquidation can be considered. Shorting is not recommended at the current position [2]. - **Data**: The closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract was 3081 yuan/ton, up 0.06% week - on - week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3246 yuan/ton, down 0.18% week - on - week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 80.16%, down 0.93 percentage points week - on - week; the average daily pig iron output was 229.2 million tons, down 1.33% week - on - week [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. As the consumption off - season arrives, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel production by mills is suppressing raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday replenishment demand will also come later than in previous years [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is putting pressure on futures prices. The building steel production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, and iron ore faces relatively greater pressure [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range oscillation pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long positions can be held with a light position for medium - term trading. Adopt an oscillation mindset and avoid chasing highs or selling lows [5]. - **Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 753 yuan/dry ton, down 3.28% week - on - week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - first contract was 102.55 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.81% week - on - week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1764.1 million tons, down 1.20% week - on - week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 819.5 million tons, up 37.92% week - on - week [5]. 3.3. Industry News - As of December 16, 5 steel mills announced their 2026 winter - storage policies, covering the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions. The policies require full payment by December 20, and the unsettled resources will be settled at the average price from March 16 to April 15 next year, with a daily settlement cap of 15%, and the interest calculation method is 6‰ per day, with interest stopping on the point - pricing day [7]. - According to the official notice of the Handan Ecological Environment Bureau, Handan officially launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 14. Steel enterprises in the jurisdiction need to strictly implement production - restriction control measures. Three blast furnaces of plate mills in Handan are under maintenance, and it is expected that the average daily pig iron output will decrease by about 15,000 tons. Another blast furnace plans to join the maintenance, which will further affect the average daily pig iron output by about 5,000 tons [7]. - The Yimin Coal Mine of Inner Mongolia Youheng Coal Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification for 2 days due to major safety hazards [7].