钢材期货周度报告 2025年09月29日 旺季需求不振 建议轻仓过节 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡下跌，周初市场预期向好，叠 加焦炭提涨预期，市场需求增加，后半周终端需求较弱，节前补 库意愿较弱，市场回归理性。临近假日，恐高情绪进一步增加， 商家多以降库为主。截至9月26日，全国主要城市20mm三级抗震 螺纹钢均价3288元/吨，周环比下跌11元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 及旺季预期的影响，钢厂产能释放力度持续增强，铁水产量小幅 增加，但品种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于传统"金九"旺季 不旺，市场商家对于"银十"的预期较弱，市场成交表现不稳。 成本端：由于铁矿石和废钢价格稳中趋强，焦炭价格维持平稳， 生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently characterized by shrinking steel - mill profits, weak supply and demand for rebar. The price of rebar oscillated weakly this week, with a rebound at the end of the week due to macro - expectation news. In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range [2][3][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. Demand expectations were unmet, inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill profits narrowed significantly. However, production remained at a high level. The market sentiment was weak, but raw - material support still existed. The price oscillated weakly and rebounded at the end of the week [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The State Council approved pilot comprehensive reforms on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new - quality productive forces [5]. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [5]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [5]. - In August, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. For the first 8 months of this year, the total goods trade imports and exports were 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [6]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [6]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [6]. - In early September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,100 tons, higher than last week's 97,000 tons. Some market traders felt that the terminal procurement volume had increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period, but the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, showing a weak - recovery trend. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally balanced, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - hotspots such as the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [24]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, steel prices may fluctuate and adjust, with the situation of repeated rises and falls still existing. Cost still supports steel prices, but the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased recently, and inventory continues to accumulate. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Driven by the continuous promotion of strict investigations on coal over - production, coking coal prices rebounded again, boosting the overall sentiment of the black series. The rebar futures market rose in the short - term, but due to weak terminal demand and increased inventory accumulation, the price rebound was limited. The supply side continued to resume and increase production due to high profits, while the demand side became calmer, with expectations cooling and actual terminal demand weakening. [2][3] 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, lower the deposit - reserve ratio, and increase financing support for key areas. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, with clear goals for 2027 and 2030. - Three departments issued a plan for the rural road improvement action, aiming to complete 300,000 kilometers of new and reconstructed rural roads by 2027. - In July, the CPI turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase month - on - month and was flat year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. - The land acquisition amount of the top 100 real - estate developers increased significantly year - on - year from January to July 2025, with a growth rate of 34.3%. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 1.826 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - car market reached 987,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.0%. - In July, the monthly operating rate of major construction machinery products in China was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.72 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points. - In July, China exported 37,610,000 household appliances; from January to July, the cumulative exports were 258,961,700 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. [5][6][7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,400 tons, higher than last week's 94,100 tons. Affected by seasonal factors such as heavy rainfall in South and Central China, the overall market demand continued to be weak. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short - term, steel prices may fluctuate and adjust. The cost still supports steel prices, but the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased, and inventory continues to accumulate. - From the futures market, most of the black series closed down, with only coking coal closing up slightly. The rebar main contract 10 closed at 3213, down 23 points on the day, up 10 points from last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 3215, down 69 points from last week. The latest position was 1.612 million lots, a reduction of 149,000 lots from last Friday. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, stay on the sidelines; for steel profits, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy. [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. The increases in East and Northeast China were relatively large, reaching over 180 - 200 yuan/ton, while the increases in South, Southwest, Northwest, and Central China ranged from 90 - 170 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying low-price dumping and unfair price behaviors. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-ins. From January to June, 16,500 urban old community renovation projects started nationwide, and the plan for 2025 is to start 25,000 projects. From July 22nd to 27th, there were multiple price increases for coke in markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan [5][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 114,700 tons, higher than last week's 93,700 tons. The rise in futures rebar drove an improvement in terminal sentiment, with significantly better market trading performance and obvious increases in trading prices [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections. Investment strategies include mainly adopting range operations for single positions, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach for inter - period arbitrage, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and steel profits, and adopting a wide - straddle consolidation strategy for options [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week-on-week. Due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by recent high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; the daily output was 596,000 tons. From January to May, the output was 90.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The raw coal output was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the daily output was 13.01 million tons. From January to May, the output was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [6]. - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. Among them, residential investment was 2.7731 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.35354 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 170.89 million square meters, a decrease of 21.4%. The completed area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 133.37 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% [7]. - The relevant national authorities stated that 162 billion yuan of the 300 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. Relevant departments are guiding local governments to use the "national subsidy" funds smoothly and orderly to promote the policy to be more effective [7]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in June was announced: the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, the same as last month [7]. - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in the Xingtai area reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, also effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025 [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 97,400 tons, lower than last week's 99,600 tons. The weak demand for steel during the off - season is likely to continue, and the supply and demand will generally maintain a weak balance [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. - The rebar main contract closed at 2992 on Friday, up 7 points on the day and 23 points from last Friday's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 2984, up 11 points. The latest position was 2.164 million lots, an increase of 28,000 lots from last Friday. This week, the funds were not very active, and both the long and short sides were hesitant, showing little change in position and volume. Currently, the daily line has been sideways for 12 trading days, and the price center of the weekly line has slightly moved up for two consecutive weeks, but the momentum is very limited. Next week, continue to pay attention to whether the 3000 - point mark can be effectively held, and there will be greater pressure near this position [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices adjusted within a narrow range, with the average national rebar price rising by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, there was some restocking sentiment in the market. However, due to the decline in coking coal and coke, which dragged down finished products, market quotes adjusted weakly. Mid-week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded under the influence of stricter safety inspections. With few fundamental contradictions in building materials, prices fluctuated and stabilized [2][4]. - Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel market during the off-season, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. Although the price rebounded from a low this week, the weekly line failed to effectively return above the 3000 mark, and the counterattack strength of long - position funds was insufficient, failing to reverse the downward trend for the time being [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices adjusted within a narrow range this week, and the average national rebar price rose by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, restocking sentiment emerged, but the decline in coking coal and coke dragged down finished products, leading to a weak adjustment in market quotes. Mid - week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded due to stricter safety inspections, and prices fluctuated and stabilized with few fundamental contradictions in building materials [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 6, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [6]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce organized the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas [6]. - Recently, Zhang Yuzhuo, the director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, conducted intensive research on enterprises in industries such as energy, steel, metal minerals, and energy conservation and environmental protection [6]. - US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time. The steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from the UK will remain at 25% [6]. - From May 26 to June 1, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.094 million tons [6]. - In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output week - on - week); 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output week - on - week); and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output week - on - week) [6]. - In late May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons (6.4% decrease) from the previous ten - day period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,100 tons, higher than last week's 101,700 tons. Due to the upcoming heavy rainfall in the South and the college entrance examination, downstream construction plans slowed down, and procurement enthusiasm was poor [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The recent steel price has shown a phased rebound under the influence of the significant fluctuations in coking coal futures. Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season steel market, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. The reference operating range is 2860 - 3020 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated downward, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has emerged, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined. The overall operating logic of the steel market is still the continuous price decline caused by cost collapse, and the current price still faces significant downward pressure [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated downward this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week - on - week. Due to weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has occurred, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [6]. - US President Trump announced on May 30 (local time) that the tariff on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4 [7]. - The Office of the US Trade Representative extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation - related behaviors, policies, and practices from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [7]. - From January to April, driven by the automobile replacement subsidy policy, automobile production reached 10.12 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; the automobile industry's revenue was 3.2552 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; costs were 2.8636 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; and profits were 132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [7]. - In June, the production plan for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan for refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; and the production plan for washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - As of May 30, 5.3 million tons of coking plant production capacity had been shut down in Shandong Province. By the end of June 2025, the province's coking plant production capacity is expected to be reduced to about 33 million tons, a total reduction of about 10 million tons [7]. - From May 19 to May 25, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 14.174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 411,000 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up, and the current inventory has reached the highest level since the beginning of the year [8]. - In May, major Chinese cities continued the trend of a structural increase in new - home prices and a decline in second - hand home prices. The average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 2.56% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 101,700 tons, higher than last week's 95,300 tons. The trading of low - priced resources improved, pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and market pessimism eased [11]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The US tariff policy is still volatile, but the overall macro environment is bearish. In June, the weak demand for steel is expected to continue due to hot and rainy weather and the approaching high - school and college entrance exams. Under the situation of low demand and low efficiency, steel mills are increasing production control, which will also suppress raw material prices. The steel market's operating logic is still price decline due to cost collapse, and although the short - term valuation is low, the downward pressure on prices remains high [33]. - The black - series futures continued to decline. The main coking coal contract fell more than 10% this week, coke fell more than 6%, rebar and hot - rolled coil fell between 3% - 4%, and iron ore fell 2.84%. The main rebar contract closed at 2,961, down 10 points for the day, 85 points lower than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 2,982, down 81 points. The latest position was 2.296 million lots, an increase of 138,000 lots from last Friday, showing a pattern of increasing positions and falling prices. After breaking below the 3,000 - point mark on the weekly chart, it is difficult to return to this level, and the weekly moving averages are diverging downward. The reference operating range is 2,860 - 3,050 [33]. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, combine shorting at high levels with range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated weakly, with the average national rebar price decreasing by 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the holiday, boosted by macro - policies, the market's sentiment to push up prices turned stronger, but the terminal demand followed up insufficiently, and merchants faced greater pressure to sell goods. Subsequently, market prices across the country declined. Next week, as billet orders weakened, steel mills' willingness to switch production to rebar increased, while demand was not sustainable, inventory destocking slowed down, and fundamental pressure gradually emerged. In the later stage, the spot price of finished products will face pressure, and short - term steel prices are expected to show a weak and fluctuating trend [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated weakly this week, with the average national rebar price decreasing by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the holiday, the market's sentiment to push up prices was strong due to macro - policies, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and prices dropped. Next week, billet orders are weak, steel mills are more willing to produce rebar, demand is poor, inventory destocking slows, and fundamental pressure appears [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including the central bank's measures such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points; the financial regulatory authority's eight incremental policies; and the CSRC's support for Central Huijin and reform policies for the Sci - tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [6]. - In April, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 2.7%. From January to April, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%, with exports increasing by 7.5% and imports decreasing by 4.2% [7]. - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 1.2% month - on - month, pig iron decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 7.6% month - on - month. Estimated national daily production of crude steel decreased by 1.2% month - on - month, pig iron decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and steel increased by 1.2% month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily building materials trading volume from Tuesday to Friday this week was 10.27 tons, lower than last week's 11.23 tons. The spot market price was poor, and due to more rain in East China and the South, the overall trading performance was sluggish [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - After the May Day holiday, there was a demand replenishment window, and the spot market was relatively resistant to decline. However, as demand enters the seasonal off - season and hot metal production may peak and decline, the later stage may face a situation of "weak reality and weak expectation", and the spot price of finished products will be under pressure. Short - term steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. - From the disk perspective, black series varieties declined, and rebar and hot - rolled coils returned to last year's low levels. The rebar main contract closed at 3022, down 50 points on the day and 74 points on the week. The latest position was 2344000 lots, an increase of 432000 lots compared to the pre - holiday closing. The short - selling momentum was strong. The weekly price fell below the lower edge of the one - month shock range, and the price is approaching the 3000 mark. The reference operating range next week is 2950 - 3100. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [30].