Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On December 24, the black metal futures showed a pattern of "range - bound oscillation under weak supply and demand". Rebar was supported by inventory depletion and supply contraction and oscillated strongly. Iron ore was under pressure due to high port inventory and weak demand. Coking coal and coke rebounded slightly due to winter storage replenishment expectations and cost support. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese maintained low - level oscillations due to loose supply and demand. There was a lack of short - term unilateral drivers, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and winter storage rhythm [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market - On December 24, the Black Chain Index opened at 112.33 points, oscillated upward during the session, reaching a maximum of 112.92 points and a minimum of 111.68 points, and finally closed at 112.66 points, up 0.3 points from the previous trading day. The total trading volume was 3.588 million lots, a decrease of 195,000 lots from the previous day. The total open interest dropped to 6.602 million lots, a decrease of 33,232 lots from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - On December 24, 2025, the black metal market showed an overall oscillating trend. Affected by the cold wave, demand weakened, but construction rush in some southern regions provided support. The trading atmosphere was average, futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and spot quotes were mainly stable. The change in basis reflected the divergence of market expectations [3] - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Zhongtian Iron and Steel brand HRB400 Φ20 rebar in the Shanghai market was 3,290 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton in the Hangzhou market. The average price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in 24 major cities was 3,294 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of hot - rolled open - flat plates (Q235B 4.75×1500×6000) of Ansteel and Bengang brands in the Anshan market was 3,250 yuan/ton. Due to the decline in real estate and infrastructure demand and the impact of the cold wave, steel mills faced significant order - taking pressure, and prices were expected to be under pressure [5] - The price difference of 61% Fe between Caofeidian Port and Qingdao Port was 16 yuan/dry ton, and the price difference between Lianyungang and Qingdao Port was 0 yuan/dry ton, indicating stable regional price differences. The price difference between iron ore and rebar contracts 01 was 2,323 yuan/ton, with changes in arbitrage space [5] - The spot price of main coking coal (A＜10.5, S＜1.3, G＞80) in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 1,300 yuan/ton, the price of Kaijia No. 1 brand was 1,450 yuan/ton, and the medium - sulfur coking coal price index was 1,353.5 yuan/ton, all showing a slight downward trend [5] - The market price of 72% FeSi qualified blocks of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5,330 yuan/ton with intraday fluctuations. The market price of high - silicon silicomanganese (FeMn65Si25) was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a stable price. The price difference between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon contracts 01 was 264 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage opportunity narrowed. The basis between Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions was in the range of - 330 to - 240 yuan/ton, and the market information disturbances led to wide - range oscillations [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The black metal futures on December 24 presented a "range - bound oscillation under weak supply and demand" pattern. Rebar oscillated strongly supported by inventory depletion and supply contraction, iron ore was under pressure due to high port inventory and weak demand, coking coal and coke rebounded slightly due to winter storage replenishment expectations and cost support, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese maintained low - level oscillations due to loose supply and demand. There was a lack of short - term unilateral drivers, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and winter storage rhythm [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. With inventory depletion and some steel mills' maintenance production, market enthusiasm was generally high, the fundamentals warmed up slightly, and raw material support remained strong, resulting in a relatively high bottom for steel prices. Looking ahead, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, inventory depletion continues at a relatively fast pace, and currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the overseas expectation of interest rate cuts, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate widely at low levels [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of December 5th, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3326 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3511 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 38 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons (-1.01%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar steel mill inventory was 142.68 million tons, a decrease of 4.05 million tons (-2.76%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar social inventory was 361.13 million tons, a decrease of 23.62 million tons (-6.14%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 79.92 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons (2.44%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 320.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.45 million tons (-0.76%) compared to the previous period [3].

摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡上涨，虽弱现实格局压制钢价 上涨驱动力，但受宏观利好消息影响，市场情绪有所提振，市场 活跃度小幅回升，原材支撑仍存。截至10月31日，全国主要城市 20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3261元/吨，周环比涨42元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，铁水产量小幅下降，但品 种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于外部降息周和中美关系缓和的 影响，期现货市场明显上涨，从而带动市场投机需求放大，各品 种市场成交有所上升。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳中上涨，废钢 价格小幅上涨，焦炭价格大幅上涨，生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 钢材期货周度报告 2025年11月03日 旺季进入尾声 盘面先扬后抑 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak demand performance, with prices oscillating downward this week. The rapid inventory accumulation and doubts about post - holiday restocking demand have left fundamental contradictions unresolved. Also, Sino - US trade relations have disrupted market sentiment [2][4]. - In the short term, the steel futures market is under adjustment pressure due to the under - performing fundamentals, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction. However, the cost side provides support, and the market's expectation for the late - October meeting limits the downward space [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices oscillated downward this week, with the market being stable to slightly lower during the holiday. As of October 11, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Sino - US trade relations affected market sentiment [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition [6]. - From January to August 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net injection was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net injection was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net injection was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded. According to different statistics, the sales amount increased by 11.9% or 22.1% month - on - month, and 0.4% year - on - year [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, up 32% year - on - year [6]. - In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, up 15% from August and about 82% from the same period last year [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.9%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in domestic steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, down 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore was 299,140 tons, up 340 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, down 3.35 days [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 99,900 tons, lower than last week's 105,500 tons. The market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, with demand falling short of expectations and risk - aversion sentiment rising [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has a weak peak season, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction, so the short - term market faces adjustment pressure. However, cost support and expectations for the late - October meeting limit the downward space [26]. - Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - to - rebar spread, and steel profit. The option strategy is a wide - straddle consolidation [2][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently characterized by shrinking steel - mill profits, weak supply and demand for rebar. The price of rebar oscillated weakly this week, with a rebound at the end of the week due to macro - expectation news. In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range [2][3][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. Demand expectations were unmet, inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill profits narrowed significantly. However, production remained at a high level. The market sentiment was weak, but raw - material support still existed. The price oscillated weakly and rebounded at the end of the week [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The State Council approved pilot comprehensive reforms on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new - quality productive forces [5]. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [5]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [5]. - In August, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. For the first 8 months of this year, the total goods trade imports and exports were 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [6]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [6]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [6]. - In early September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,100 tons, higher than last week's 97,000 tons. Some market traders felt that the terminal procurement volume had increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period, but the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, showing a weak - recovery trend. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally balanced, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - hotspots such as the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [24]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][24].