Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that the U.S. has continuously provoked new trade frictions, increasing uncertainty and instability in bilateral economic relations, and has unjustly accused China of violating agreements from the Geneva trade talks [1] - From May 26 to June 1, national freight logistics operated in an orderly manner, with national railways transporting 77.638 million tons of goods, a decrease of 0.16% month-on-month; highway freight traffic reached 52.008 million vehicles, down 6.14%; monitored ports completed a cargo throughput of 277.418 million tons, an increase of 2.24%, while container throughput was 6.517 million TEUs, down 0.72% [1] - On June 2, the national railway is expected to send 17.9 million passengers, with 1,279 additional passenger trains planned [1] Strategic Mineral Control - Various regions in China are implementing measures to prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals, with the National Export Control Coordination Mechanism issuing a deployment plan for comprehensive control of strategic mineral exports [2] - Guizhou will strictly follow the deployment plan, while Hunan will conduct systematic inspections of local strategic mineral export enterprises and guide them to enhance compliance awareness [2] - Guangxi will intensify supervision of strategic mineral exploration and mining, cracking down on illegal mining activities [2] Real Estate Market - In May, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand housing in Shanghai reached 2.23 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2] - The real estate market in Shanghai has shown characteristics of "increased volume and stable prices" from January to May this year [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the measures taken by various regions in China to strengthen the control and prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals [1] - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office has issued a comprehensive deployment plan to enhance the management of strategic mineral exports [1] - Guizhou province will strictly follow the deployment plan to ensure proper implementation of related work [1] Group 2 - Hunan province's relevant authorities will implement local regulatory responsibilities, systematically assess strategic mineral export enterprises, and establish a ledger [1] - The focus will be on guiding enterprises to enhance compliance systems and awareness to ensure the effectiveness of control measures [1] - Guangxi will intensify supervision and management of national strategic mineral exploration and mining, cracking down on illegal mining activities [1] Group 3 - The cities of Wuzhou in Guangxi and Yunfu in Guangdong have established a cross-regional cooperation mechanism to combat illegal mining activities [1] - Other provinces like Jiangxi and Yunnan have also committed to fulfilling their responsibilities in implementing these measures [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the trade war initiated by President Trump has failed, with recent agreements seen as a retreat rather than a victory for the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with a notable increase of 300% in container bookings from China, indicating a strong recovery in trade activities [1] - The joint statement from the U.S. and China announced the cancellation of 91% of the imposed tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% "reciprocal tariffs," marking a substantial easing of tensions [1][3] Group 2 - China has emphasized the importance of controlling strategic mineral exports and has taken measures to address smuggling issues, indicating a cautious approach despite the tariff reductions [3] - The language used in the joint statement reflects a mutual understanding and respect, suggesting a shift towards cooperation rather than confrontation in trade relations [3] - The U.S. business community is calling for further tariff reductions, particularly regarding the 20% tariff on Chinese goods related to fentanyl, but there are political tensions surrounding this issue [5] Group 3 - The unpredictable nature of U.S. tariff policies under Trump has created significant uncertainty for U.S.-China trade, leading businesses to adopt a cautious stance when accepting large orders from the U.S. [6] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in predicting economic and inflation trends due to the fluctuating policies, with Trump urging for interest rate cuts to mitigate inflation caused by tariffs [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [4] Core Insights - The recent decrease in tungsten quotas by 4,000 tons in April, combined with seasonal production lows and environmental inspections, has led to a tightening supply and a significant increase in tungsten prices, reflecting its strategic value [1][3] - A meeting in Changsha emphasized the need for stricter regulation of strategic mineral exports, indicating a focus on controlling the entire supply chain from extraction to export [1][2] - The market for antimony is experiencing price adjustments due to weak downstream demand, despite a tight supply situation [2][14] - Molybdenum prices are supported by strong demand from the manufacturing sector, with a notable increase in procurement volumes [9][11] Summary by Sections Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have risen to 3,505 CNY/ton, up 5.7% from previous lows, indicating robust demand from the manufacturing sector [9][11] - The total procurement volume for molybdenum iron steel exceeded 7,600 tons in early May, reflecting ongoing strong demand [11] Antimony - Antimony prices have seen a decline, with 2 antimony ingot prices at 219,000 CNY/ton, down 4.3% from the previous week, due to weak demand in downstream industries [2][14] - The supply remains tight, but the market is cautious with purchasing decisions [15] Magnesium - The average price of magnesium ingots has increased to 18,780 CNY/ton, with a 9.3% decrease in total inventory, indicating a tightening supply situation [19][20] Tungsten - The average price of black tungsten concentrate has risen to 167,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a 10% increase, driven by reduced quotas and supply constraints [3][22] - The APT price has also increased significantly, indicating a recovery in profitability for producers [3][22] Vanadium - The vanadium market remains stable with prices for vanadium pentoxide holding steady at 76,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a cautious market environment [27][29]

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2024 年 5 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 5 月 14 日，螺纹钢、热卷期货主力合约 2510 低开高走，大幅上行；不锈钢 期货主力合约 2507 震荡上行。 表2：5月14日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2510 | 1,323,132 | 1,302,920 ...

Group 1 - The central bank reported that M2 increased by 8% year-on-year to 325.17 trillion yuan, while M1 grew by 1.5% to 109.14 trillion yuan as of the end of April [1] - In the first four months, new RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with total loans reaching 269.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment for businesses [2] Group 2 - The State Council has implemented a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to gather opinions from private enterprises, emphasizing their resilience and confidence in the current economic environment [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to prevent illegal outflow of strategic minerals, highlighting the importance of regulatory oversight in this sector [6] Group 3 - China Rare Earth announced plans to advance internal and external asset integration and restructuring to align with industry consolidation and green transformation [7] - Vanke A received a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, to repay bond principal and interest [8] - Macroview Technology signed a contract worth 563 million yuan for computing power services, indicating growth in the tech service sector [9] Group 4 - Baofeng Energy plans to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion and 2 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in its stock value [9] - Xinhua Du is collaborating with Hong Kong Polytechnic University to establish an AI laboratory, aiming to enhance AI applications in business [9] - BeiGene's shareholder HHLR Fund reduced its stake to 4.89%, indicating a shift in ownership dynamics [10] Group 5 - ST United is planning to acquire a stake in Jiangxi Runtian Industrial, with shares suspended for trading, indicating potential growth through strategic acquisitions [12] - Shenghe Resources intends to acquire 100% of Peak Rare Earths Limited for approximately 742.6 million yuan, focusing on the development of the Ngualla rare earth project in Tanzania [12]