2026 年 2 月 9 日 基本面驱动不强 铁矿石震荡承压 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 铁矿石月报 ⚫ 要点需求端：1月铁矿石需求以刚性为主，钢厂高炉检 修增加、终端需求季节性走弱，铁水产量小幅波动。 节后高炉复产将带动日耗回升，但成材库存压制利 润，旺季需求落空概率较大，铁水产量恢复预计缓 慢，2月总量受假期影响大概率低于1月，需求端支 撑有限。 ⚫ 供应端：铁矿石供应宽松格局延续。尽管澳巴主流 矿山发货量环比微降，但因前期高发运延迟到港， 港口库存已攀升至历史高位。非主流矿发运受价格 影响回落，国内矿山亦受季节性限产。虽南半球雨 季或扰动二季 ...

专题报告 2026-01-23 报告要点： 供应端，淡季特征逐步显现，海外矿山发运水平在总量相对高位的情况下边际趋势向下。需求 端，安全生产事故影响铁水复产节奏，需求的边际变化由增转降。供需整体边际弱化。从库存 结构看，港口库存高位运行对价格的绝对高度形成压制，但结构性问题未解决。同时，钢厂库 存偏低，临近春节前，价格下行过程中存在一定被动补库支撑。从市场氛围来说，在 12 月下 旬以来商品经历较长时间的偏暖氛围之后，近期进入调整阶段，黑色系商品作为补涨板块，同 样受到情绪变化所带来的冲击影响。 总体来看，铁矿石市场短期面临边际下行压力，价格运行重心或阶段性承压。但考虑到钢厂补 库需求、库存结构性特征以及供应端进入天气扰动因素多发季节，下方空间相对有限。价格更 可能维持震荡偏弱运行，后续则关注发运节奏、铁水产量变化及定价谈判的进一步发展。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 陈张滢 铁矿石：供需边际变化下的价格运行 黑色建材研究 | 铁矿石 近期，铁矿石市场在经历前期价格偏强运行后，盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side shows that last week's hot metal production continued to stabilize, the in - plant inventory increased slightly, and the steel mills' restocking efforts were average. The supply side indicates that after the year - end mine rush, overseas iron ore shipments declined last week, and there will be significant arrival pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with port inventories at a high level. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, short - term sentiment has eased, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3144 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a gain of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 6567825 lots, and a total open interest of 2367759 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3294 yuan/ton, a rise of 24 yuan, a gain of 0.73%, a total trading volume of 2987286 lots, and a total open interest of 1440895 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 814.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 25.0 yuan, a gain of 3.17%, a total trading volume of 1706517 lots, and a total open interest of 636674 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1195.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 80.5 yuan, a gain of 7.22%, a total trading volume of 7162354 lots, and a total open interest of 621167 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1748.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 55.0 yuan, a gain of 3.25%, a total trading volume of 158354 lots, and a total open interest of 39551 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures first rose and then fell, with the center of the futures price moving up. During the week, the fluctuations increased due to the drive of coking coal and coke. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 701 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 122 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, last week, the hot metal production of 247 steel mills continued to stabilize. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 229.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.13 tons [4]. - On the supply side, after the year - end mine rush, overseas iron ore shipments declined last week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2742.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 316.9 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17044.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 322.65 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 336.96 tons, a decrease of 3.25 tons [5]. Industry News - The US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. UN Secretary - General Guterres was deeply shocked by the recent escalation of the situation in Venezuela. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action against Venezuela at 10:00 local time on January 5 [10]. - The 2026 work conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5 - 6. The meeting emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts. It also mentioned flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [10]. - In December 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 10.3266 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 52.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.5%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 9.7901 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 27% [10]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including those on the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the basis spread of iron ore, and various production, shipment, inventory, and price - related charts of iron ore [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, with the supply - demand contradiction accumulating and the upward driving force being limited [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation and weakening", and the overall view is "high - level fluctuation". The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions and limited upward driving force [1]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, with inventory rising at a high level. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption of ore remains at a low level, and the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, so weak demand is likely to put pressure on ore prices, although steel mills have replenished stocks to some extent. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have declined slightly, while miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, ore supply remains high. With the fermentation of positive factors, the ore price has returned to a high level, but the demand is weakening and supply is high, so the price will maintain a high - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore prices continued their weak and volatile trend this week. Affected by the seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious steel mill procurement, the demand side weakened marginally. The supply side maintained stable shipments, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Coupled with the high valuation, the upward momentum of prices was suppressed. Although there was some order resilience in the finished product market, the clear characteristics of the terminal seasonal off - season made it difficult to provide effective support. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The market focus shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It was expected that prices would continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to cost support and restocking rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%) [3][38]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][47]. - **Ocean Freight**: The ocean freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the ocean freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%) [53]. - **Domestic Port Arrival Volume**: This week, the iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%) [55]. - **Domestic Mine Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37,100 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons per day (-1.62%) [57]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%) [63]. - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%) [65]. - **Global Steel Production**: The report presents data on global blast furnace pig iron production, Chinese blast furnace pig iron production, and global crude steel production through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [71][75][76]. - **Port Dispatching Situation**: The report presents data on the seasonal dispatching volume of 45 ports and the daily average dispatching volume of Qingdao Port through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [83][84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%) [87]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%) [95]. 3.4 Futures Market - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.06%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the screw - to - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.003 [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread on the Futures Market**: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.50 yuan per ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.50 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan per ton. The spreads between the domestic and foreign markets and between different varieties maintained narrow - range fluctuations, and there was no obvious structural differentiation [3]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The report presents data on iron ore futures positions, trading volume, and exchange - registered warrants through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [11][12][16]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report presents data on the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder price through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [17][19][22]. - **Lump - to - Powder Ore Price Spread**: The report presents data on the blending ore price spread, lump - to - powder ore price spread, and price spreads between different grades through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][26][29]. 3.6 Market Viewpoint Summary - **Overall Market Viewpoint Summary**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand but with improved expectations. With high inventories, prices fluctuated strongly, and macro - sentiment supported prices. - **This Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 5 institutions were bullish, 7 were neutral, and 1 was bearish. - **Last Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 3 institutions were bullish, 12 were neutral, and 3 were bearish. - **Points of Disagreement and Expected Differences**: The game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand dominated the short - term divergence in the iron ore market [6]. 3.7 Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics - **Steel Mill Dynamics**: On December 23, 2025, MagIron, a US steel raw material developer, planned to acquire the local Reynolds pellet plant; on December 24, 2025, Morocco's Somasteel company invested tens of millions of dollars to build a new steel mill; on December 26, 2025, the No. 2 blast furnace of ArcelorMittal's Fos - sur - Mer steel mill in France fully resumed production after a fire [4]. - **Mine Dynamics**: On December 22, 2025, Canadian mining company Champion Iron planned to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for $289 million; on December 26, 2025, the Guinea iron ore project of US mining company Ivanhoe successfully obtained the railway and port use agreement; on December 26, 2025, Australian exploration company Pear Gull completed the sale of its Parrot Island iron ore project [4]. - **Macro - news**: On December 22, 2025, the Premier of the State Council proposed to plan a number of major projects that could drive the overall situation; on December 22, 2025, the December LPR remained unchanged; on December 23, 2025, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation with increased trading volume; on December 23, 2025, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to promote the spot - house sales system; on December 24, 2025, the initial value of the annualized growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%; on December 25, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000; on December 26, 2025, the renovation of old residential communities that started construction in the first 11 months had completed the annual plan; on December 26, 2025, China responded to the US tariff policy on China's semiconductor 301 investigation [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, iron ore has rebounded from its bottom. The main reasons are the marginal improvement in the supply - demand relationship and inventory data of rebar, the recovery of hot metal production due to the weakening impact of environmental protection restrictions in North China, and the relatively high basis of iron ore, which provides a basis for price rebound [3] - In the short - term, there is a lack of macro - drivers. The peak of foreign ore supply has passed, and the shipping volume and arrival volume are expected to decline gradually. On the demand side, the hot metal production fluctuates in the short - term but will show a downward trend this year. The inventory will tend to accumulate, but the inventory level at the steel mill is low, and the basis rate and internal - external price difference are large. The current price is expected to be at a neutral position and will mainly fluctuate within a range [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipping volume of foreign ores has been increasing continuously on a week - on - week basis, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has dropped significantly on a week - on - week basis. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, the peak of foreign ore supply may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline on a week - on - week basis later [3] Demand - Domestic demand has increased on a week - on - week basis. After the lifting of production restrictions in Hebei, it has returned to full production. In this period, 7 blast furnaces were newly overhauled and 5 were restarted. Blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, etc. due to weak demand and losses; blast furnace restarts mainly occurred in Southwest, Northeast, Hebei, and Henan. The blast furnace in Southwest restarted after a long - term shutdown and is expected to be shut down for maintenance by the end of the year, while other regions restarted after the end of scheduled overhauls. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability have been continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. With steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures is in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3] Strategy - Adopt range - bound operations and sell call options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak, with a significant increase in inventory. Under production restrictions, the iron ore terminal demand continues to decline. The demand for iron ore remains weak, suppressing the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at ports has rebounded significantly, and overseas miners' shipments have slightly declined, both at high levels within the year. With the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply pressure is large. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly, so the performance of steel should be monitored [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 14,898.83, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 and a month - on - month increase of 356.35 compared to the end of last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 370.23 compared to the same period [2] - 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory is 9,009.94, a week - on - week increase of 160.08 and a month - on - month increase of 160.08 compared to the end of last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 120.57 compared to the same period [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume is 3,218.40, a week - on - week increase of 1,189.30 and a month - on - month increase of 1,189.30 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 955.70 compared to the same period [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 3,213.84, a week - on - week decrease of 174.51 and a month - on - month decrease of 174.51 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 58.84 compared to the same period [2] Demand - 247 - steel mill daily average hot metal production is 234.22, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 and a month - on - month decrease of 2.14 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 0.16 compared to the same period [2] - 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume is 320.93, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 and a month - on - month increase of 0.77 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 6.54 compared to the same period [2] - 247 - steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 288.70, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92 and a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 compared to last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.26 compared to the same period [2] - Main port iron ore transaction weekly average is 124.90, a week - on - week increase of 42.72 and a month - on - month increase of 42.72 compared to last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.96 compared to the same period [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions, which put pressure on the ore price [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating. The port inventory is increasing rapidly, steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is declining rapidly. The steel market's industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the weak demand pattern persists, dragging down the ore price. The supply pressure is increasing as both domestic and overseas ore supplies are rising. The high - valued ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term trend is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of supply - demand contradiction accumulation and ore price under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying. Port inventory is piling up quickly, steel mill production is getting weaker, and ore consumption at the terminal is dropping fast. The unresolved contradictions in the steel market and weak demand continue to affect the ore price. The supply from both domestic and overseas mines is increasing, leading to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the high - valued ore price will keep running weakly [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 802.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The current fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand with minor contradictions, mainly influenced by news. The outcome of the Sino-US leaders' meeting was slightly lower than market expectations but the overall trend is positive. The rumors of Tangshan's production restrictions and the solicitation of opinions on a new round of capacity replacement plans have restored confidence in the black industry chain, leading to a short - term strong operation of ore prices [7][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 30, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract was volatile and slightly stronger. It opened higher, fluctuated upward, dived in the afternoon and then recovered, closing at 802.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The main iron ore offshore quotes rose by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract on the daily line showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning down. The MACD indicator's golden red column on the daily line of iron ore 2601 has been expanding for two consecutive days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On October 30, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and study specific plans. The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding counter - measures. They also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly declined to a low level, which is a regular decline after the end of the quarterly volume rush. The cumulative shipments in the past four weeks reached 1.09 billion tons, an increase of 2.65% compared with the previous four weeks, and the future arrivals are expected to rebound. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou, Guinea, by Rio Tinto is expected in November, with a limited short - term impact. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline to below 2.4 million tons, mainly due to the narrowing steel production profit, and it may continue to decline slightly. The demand for the five major steel products has continued to recover this week, and their output has rebounded again. The current steel mills are back to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days dropping to 20 days, a relatively low level this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate to 144 million tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [12]. 3.2 Industry News - The outcomes of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur are as follows: The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and study specific plans. The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding counter - measures. They also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations, and the US made positive commitments in the field of investment. China will properly handle issues related to TikTok [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices, trading volumes, and inventory of iron ore and steel products, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, and the production and consumption of steel products. The data sources are mainly from the websites of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and Mysteel, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5][8][15].