K 让衍生品 成为新的生产力 让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：李海蓉 黑色研究团队 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 2026 年商品年度报告 黑色商品 供给作为主变量，2026 年矿价或前高后低 摘 要 整体来看，2026 年全球铁矿石供需关系静态宽松，供应端放量 主要体现在非主流及几内亚矿山，需求端国内仍然面临下行压力， 海外将有小幅增加。港口库存继续积累，矿价或承压运行。预计价 格中枢将下移至 85-90 美金。节奏上，一、二季度在供给缩量、钢 企复产、冬储及开工预期下，价格相对偏强，三、四季度随着供应 端放量，叠加需求难有起色的情况下，矿价恐承压。 期现及月间套利方面，供应增加预期的兑现程度以及铁水产量 波动节奏的错配或带来套利机会。如 3 月份可关注跨期正套及期现 反套。 黑色商品研究 品种间套利，从估值和供应增量预期来看，若增量兑现，铁矿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, with the supply - demand contradiction accumulating and the upward driving force being limited [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation and weakening", and the overall view is "high - level fluctuation". The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions and limited upward driving force [1]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, with inventory rising at a high level. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption of ore remains at a low level, and the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, so weak demand is likely to put pressure on ore prices, although steel mills have replenished stocks to some extent. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have declined slightly, while miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, ore supply remains high. With the fermentation of positive factors, the ore price has returned to a high level, but the demand is weakening and supply is high, so the price will maintain a high - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].

| 因子 | 周度观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 本周全球铁矿石发运量3464.50万吨，环比减少128.00万吨（-3.56%）； 澳洲发运量1950.60万吨，环比下降102.00万吨（-4.97%）； | | | | 巴西发运量864.10万吨，环比减少48.80万吨（–5.35%）；澳巴合计发运量2814.70万吨，环比下降150.80万吨（–5.09%）。本周中国 | 供给 | 中性 | | 45港铁矿到港量2646.70万吨，环比减少76.70万吨（-2.82%）。矿山发运保持稳定，李节性供应压力未见明显缓解。 | | | | 全国247家钢厂高炉产能利用率84.94%，环比微增0.01%（+0.01%）； 日均铁水产量226.58万吨，环比上升0.03万吨（+0.01%）； 盈利 | 謂求 | 利空 | | 比例37.23%，环比提升1.30%（-3.62%）。铁水产量延续李节性回落，终端成材订单韧性有限，钢厂补库意愿低迷。 | | | | 中国45港铁矿库存15858.66万吨，环比增加346.03万吨（+2.23%）； 中国47港铁矿库存16619.96万吨，环比增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, iron ore has rebounded from its bottom. The main reasons are the marginal improvement in the supply - demand relationship and inventory data of rebar, the recovery of hot metal production due to the weakening impact of environmental protection restrictions in North China, and the relatively high basis of iron ore, which provides a basis for price rebound [3] - In the short - term, there is a lack of macro - drivers. The peak of foreign ore supply has passed, and the shipping volume and arrival volume are expected to decline gradually. On the demand side, the hot metal production fluctuates in the short - term but will show a downward trend this year. The inventory will tend to accumulate, but the inventory level at the steel mill is low, and the basis rate and internal - external price difference are large. The current price is expected to be at a neutral position and will mainly fluctuate within a range [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipping volume of foreign ores has been increasing continuously on a week - on - week basis, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has dropped significantly on a week - on - week basis. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, the peak of foreign ore supply may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline on a week - on - week basis later [3] Demand - Domestic demand has increased on a week - on - week basis. After the lifting of production restrictions in Hebei, it has returned to full production. In this period, 7 blast furnaces were newly overhauled and 5 were restarted. Blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, etc. due to weak demand and losses; blast furnace restarts mainly occurred in Southwest, Northeast, Hebei, and Henan. The blast furnace in Southwest restarted after a long - term shutdown and is expected to be shut down for maintenance by the end of the year, while other regions restarted after the end of scheduled overhauls. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability have been continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. With steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures is in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3] Strategy - Adopt range - bound operations and sell call options [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak, with a significant increase in inventory. Under production restrictions, the iron ore terminal demand continues to decline. The demand for iron ore remains weak, suppressing the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at ports has rebounded significantly, and overseas miners' shipments have slightly declined, both at high levels within the year. With the recovery of domestic ore production, the supply pressure is large. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the ore price will still be under pressure and run weakly, so the performance of steel should be monitored [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 14,898.83, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 and a month - on - month increase of 356.35 compared to the end of last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 370.23 compared to the same period [2] - 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory is 9,009.94, a week - on - week increase of 160.08 and a month - on - month increase of 160.08 compared to the end of last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 120.57 compared to the same period [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume is 3,218.40, a week - on - week increase of 1,189.30 and a month - on - month increase of 1,189.30 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 955.70 compared to the same period [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 3,213.84, a week - on - week decrease of 174.51 and a month - on - month decrease of 174.51 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 58.84 compared to the same period [2] Demand - 247 - steel mill daily average hot metal production is 234.22, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 and a month - on - month decrease of 2.14 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 0.16 compared to the same period [2] - 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume is 320.93, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 and a month - on - month increase of 0.77 compared to last month, and a year - on - year increase of 6.54 compared to the same period [2] - 247 - steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 288.70, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92 and a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 compared to last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.26 compared to the same period [2] - Main port iron ore transaction weekly average is 124.90, a week - on - week increase of 42.72 and a month - on - month increase of 42.72 compared to last month, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.96 compared to the same period [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions, which put pressure on the ore price [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating. The port inventory is increasing rapidly, steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is declining rapidly. The steel market's industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the weak demand pattern persists, dragging down the ore price. The supply pressure is increasing as both domestic and overseas ore supplies are rising. The high - valued ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term trend is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of supply - demand contradiction accumulation and ore price under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying. Port inventory is piling up quickly, steel mill production is getting weaker, and ore consumption at the terminal is dropping fast. The unresolved contradictions in the steel market and weak demand continue to affect the ore price. The supply from both domestic and overseas mines is increasing, leading to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the high - valued ore price will keep running weakly [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 802.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The current fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand with minor contradictions, mainly influenced by news. The outcome of the Sino-US leaders' meeting was slightly lower than market expectations but the overall trend is positive. The rumors of Tangshan's production restrictions and the solicitation of opinions on a new round of capacity replacement plans have restored confidence in the black industry chain, leading to a short - term strong operation of ore prices [7][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 30, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract was volatile and slightly stronger. It opened higher, fluctuated upward, dived in the afternoon and then recovered, closing at 802.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The main iron ore offshore quotes rose by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract on the daily line showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning down. The MACD indicator's golden red column on the daily line of iron ore 2601 has been expanding for two consecutive days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On October 30, the Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and study specific plans. The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding counter - measures. They also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrivals have significantly declined to a low level, which is a regular decline after the end of the quarterly volume rush. The cumulative shipments in the past four weeks reached 1.09 billion tons, an increase of 2.65% compared with the previous four weeks, and the future arrivals are expected to rebound. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou, Guinea, by Rio Tinto is expected in November, with a limited short - term impact. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline to below 2.4 million tons, mainly due to the narrowing steel production profit, and it may continue to decline slightly. The demand for the five major steel products has continued to recover this week, and their output has rebounded again. The current steel mills are back to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days dropping to 20 days, a relatively low level this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate to 144 million tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [12]. 3.2 Industry News - The outcomes of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur are as follows: The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly. Both sides will suspend relevant export control measures for one year and study specific plans. The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding counter - measures. They also reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations, and the US made positive commitments in the field of investment. China will properly handle issues related to TikTok [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices, trading volumes, and inventory of iron ore and steel products, the shipments and arrivals of iron ore, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, and the production and consumption of steel products. The data sources are mainly from the websites of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and Mysteel, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [5][8][15].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - drive is positive, and the prices of the black series have rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is weak, but the pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices. However, the domestic demand is resilient, and the basis of iron ore has strengthened year - on - year and month - on - month, with improved market sentiment. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound, and the price will run in a range [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Outer ore shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with stable shipments from Australia and a relative rebound in shipments from Brazil to a high - shipment range. The arrival volume dropped significantly for two consecutive weeks. Overall, the supply of outer ore increased steadily, and the immediate supply decreased significantly month - on - month, strengthening the support at the supply end [3]. Demand - Domestic demand continued to decline month - on - month due to environmental protection in Hebei causing some steel mills to shut down or reduce loads. Although the blast furnace operating rate increased this week, the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year. The blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate continued to decline slowly, and considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end increased slightly month - on - month as steel mills entered the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume and a decline in the port clearance volume caused by weather, port inventories continued to accumulate month - on - month [4]. Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 785 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an outer - market price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [5]. Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110. Be cautious about the price decline caused by steel mills' production cuts due to negative feedback from the bottom - up stage, which may occur from late October to early November. After mid - November, prices may be relatively strong as steel enterprises start winter storage [3][55]. - The global iron ore supply is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, while the demand is expected to decrease by about 8.62 million tons [3][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Insufficient Domestic Demand and Limited External Demand 1.1 Domestic Demand: Weak Steel Demand and Decrease in Hot Metal Production in the Fourth Quarter - Downstream demand shows that building material demand is at a low level, plate demand is at a high level in the same period and remains resilient, and non - five major steel products perform moderately. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year steel demand decreased slightly by 1.29%, and the growth rates of the three major investments continued to decline in August. In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in domestic steel demand [11]. - In the third quarter, the long - process profit was acceptable, and steel enterprises' production enthusiasm was high. The addition of scrap steel increased, and the output of five major steel products increased year - on - year. As raw material prices strengthened, the cost - effectiveness of hot metal compared with scrap steel decreased. According to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated daily average hot metal output in the third quarter was 2.4005 million tons, with a quarterly total of 221 million tons. The estimated hot metal output in the fourth quarter is 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 7.02 million tons in iron ore demand. The decline in hot metal production depends more on steel enterprises' profit adjustment, and production cuts may occur after November [19][20]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Operating at a Low Level in the Range with a Decrease Quarter - on - Quarter - With the slowdown of inflation in major overseas economies and the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, the economic vitality of major economies has been somewhat boosted. However, the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, and the increase in overseas steel demand is limited [21]. - The steel production of countries outside China is generally stable. Japan and South Korea are gradually reducing their steel production capacity to deal with domestic over - capacity, and their pig iron production remains at a low level. European iron ore demand is generally weak. India's steel production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and pig iron production in Southeast Asia is also growing at a high rate. The total pig iron production outside China is expected to be 104 million tons in the fourth quarter, a decrease of about 1 million tons compared with the previous quarter, which means a reduction of 1.6 million tons in iron ore demand [29][33]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 7.02 million tons in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the estimated iron ore demand will decrease by 1.6 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [34][35]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - No Increment Seen 2.1 Mainstream Mines in Australia and Brazil: Restocking Drives Shipping Volume to Surge in the Second Half - In Australia, the total iron ore shipping volume of the three major mines in the third quarter was 202 million tons, and it is expected to be about 204 million tons in the fourth quarter, an increase of 2 million tons compared with the previous quarter. In Brazil, Vale's shipping volume in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the increase in the fourth quarter is limited, with a total shipping volume of 75 million tons, a decrease of 3.15 million tons compared with the previous quarter. Overall, the total iron ore shipping volume of the four major mines in the fourth quarter will decrease by about 1.05 million tons compared with the previous quarter, but the shipping volume will increase in December due to winter storage restocking by domestic steel mills [38]. 2.2 Non - Mainstream Overseas Mines and Domestic Mines: Constrained by Costs and Generally Stable - In the third quarter, the iron ore price strengthened, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines was strong. In the fourth quarter, if domestic steel mills maintain the current production rhythm, the downward pressure on the ore price is relatively small, and the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines can still remain at a high level. If domestic steel enterprises cut production due to losses or policy requirements, the shipping volume of non - mainstream mines may decrease slightly. It is estimated that the shipping volume will be 134 million tons, a decrease of about 5 million tons compared with the previous quarter. - For domestic mines, the production of iron ore concentrate decreased slightly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. Due to the same cost constraints as non - mainstream mines, the production is proportional to the price. It is estimated that the production of iron ore concentrate in the fourth quarter will be about 61.35 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous quarter [43]. 2.3 Supply Side Summary - The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter [3][46]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Double Increase in Inventory May Boost Ore Price - In terms of ports, the inventory of 45 ports at the end of the third quarter was 140 million tons, showing a slight inventory build - up in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore is statically neutral to slightly loose, and the inventory may show an overall build - up. - For steel mills, especially in the second half of the fourth quarter, they will gradually enter the stage of restocking imported ore, which will continuously support the ore price [51]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary - Supply: The total supply of global iron ore is estimated to decrease by about 5.95 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Demand: The global iron ore demand will decrease by about 8.62 million tons in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. - Inventory: Port inventory may show an overall build - up, while steel mills' restocking of imported ore in the second half of the fourth quarter will support the ore price. Overall, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore in the fourth quarter is slightly loose, but the support of steel mills' restocking on prices cannot be ignored. The price range of the 62% Platts Index is between $90 - $110 [55].

Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In October, iron ore prices will be dragged down by terminal demand. After the end - of - Q3 shipping rush, overseas mines' shipments are expected to decline seasonally, and arrivals are also expected to decrease. Steel mills' hot metal production remains high, but downstream terminal demand is weak. After the pre - holiday restocking, the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will accumulate. If the finished product inventory pressure increases and steel prices adjust downward, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and port inventories are expected to increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the policy directions from the Fourth Plenary Session in late October and the potential impact of sudden news on prices [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In September, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8238 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,400 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in September was 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of September, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 71 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the Carajás - PB powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton; the Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of September, the pellet feed ratio was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the lump ore feed ratio was 12.06%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of September, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 5.63 percentage points [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; pellet inventory was 2.7865 million tons, a decrease of 47,200 tons; iron concentrate inventory was 10.8306 million tons, a decrease of 295,300 tons; lump ore inventory was 17.2213 million tons, an increase of 682,300 tons; Australian ore port inventory was 59.1619 million tons, a decrease of 621,200 tons; Brazilian ore port inventory was 53.5452 million tons, an increase of 3.1776 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 97.3639 million tons, an increase of 7.292 million tons [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In September, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. Rio Tinto's weekly average shipments were 6.319 million tons, an increase of 428,000 tons; BHP's were 5.4408 million tons, an increase of 192,400 tons; Vale's were 5.3985 million tons, a decrease of 1.2485 million tons; FMG's were 4.1385 million tons, an increase of 509,700 tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In September, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of September, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 478,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The estimated domestic hot metal production in September was 72.05 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month. At the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In September, the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [69]. 6. Basis As of September 30, the calculated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 54.21 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.49% [74].