1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term futures price of iron ore still has macro and micro support. Although the enthusiasm for chasing high prices of black commodities has declined, the macro - expectations reflected in other major asset sectors are not weak, and the active production of downstream steel mills supports the short - term price of iron ore [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Market Overview - The main 01 contract price of iron ore first rose and then fell this week, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 447,000 lots, an increase of 92,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 258,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 119,000 lots [7] - Imported iron ore spot prices rose slightly week - on - week, with high - grade Carajas fines having a relatively large price increase [12] Supply Side - Global iron ore shipments have been relatively stable recently. There are some differences in shipments between Australia and Brazil. Rio Tinto's shipments are continuously catching up with last year's progress. Among non - mainstream suppliers, shipments from India and Peru are relatively weak, and Ukraine had its first overseas shipment since November last year [5][21][27] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic iron ore mines has increased month - on - month with the recovery in North China [32] Demand Side - The production of hot metal and five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, showing a large increase compared with the same period last year, which supports the immediate demand for iron ore spot (also confirmed by port ore handling volume) [5][34] - Recently, the arrival volume of scrap steel has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the spot price of scrap steel is sticky. This week, it increased slightly month - on - month, while the cost of hot metal increased more. The price difference between scrap and hot metal continued to narrow [35] Inventory Side - The powder ore inventory has been rising continuously, and the destocking trend at ports has slowed down [38][40] Downstream Profit - Behind the high - level operation of steel mills' production, the positive profit of finished steel products is shrinking [42] Price Spread - The price differences between Carajas fines - PB fines and Tangshan iron concentrate - PB fines have both widened recently [45] - The 1 - 5 price spread of the iron ore futures contract has been relatively stable this week [47] - As the maturity date approaches, the basis of the 09 contract is gradually approaching par, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has also slightly shrunk month - on - month, basically the same as the basis amplitude in the same period last year [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has some resilience, which supports the ore price, but the supply of iron ore will increase while the demand is weakly stable. Under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market will weaken [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that market sentiment has weakened and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined but remains at a high level within the year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and the resilience of ore demand still exists, which supports the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased as expected on a monthly basis, but according to ship schedules, subsequent arrivals are unlikely to decrease. On the contrary, the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase, and they are expected to be active in shipping at high ore prices. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore production, the ore supply will increase again [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global iron ore supply is expected to expand with the upcoming production of Simandou Iron Ore in Africa, while emerging economies such as India will drive demand growth. The iron ore price is projected to fluctuate within a reasonable range of $80 - $100 per ton in the next 3 - 5 years under normal circumstances [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Iron Ore Production 1.1 Global Iron Ore Production - Since 2000, global iron ore production increased significantly before 2014 and has remained stable at around 2 billion tons per year since 2015. In 2024, global iron ore production was 2.33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3.6% [11]. 1.2 China's Iron Ore Production - From 2000 - 2013, China's iron ore production increased steadily due to the expansion of small and medium - sized mines. However, since 2014, production has declined due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and competition from imported ores. In 2024, China's iron ore concentrate production was 284 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The compound annual growth rate from 2000 to 2024 was 3%. The main production areas are North, Northeast, East, and Southwest China, with North China being the largest, accounting for 34.1% [12][15]. II. Iron Ore Trade 2.1 Global Iron Ore Trade - Before 2015, global iron ore trade volume increased rapidly, and has since remained stable at a high level. In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.711 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Australia and Brazil are the two major exporters, accounting for 76.3% of global exports. In the same year, global iron ore imports reached 1.638 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, with China being the largest importer, accounting for 72% [17][22]. 2.2 China's Iron Ore Trade - Since the 21st century, China has become the world's largest iron ore importer, mainly importing from Australia and Brazil. In 2024, China's iron ore imports reached 1.237 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was about 5% [26][27]. III. Iron Ore Consumption 3.1 Global Iron Ore Consumption - Global iron ore consumption has been growing steadily in the past 15 years. China, India, and Japan are the top three consumers, accounting for 58.9%, 10.3%, and 4.4% of global consumption in 2023 respectively. From 2010 to 2024, global iron ore apparent consumption increased from 1.958 billion tons to 2.437 billion tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.59% [31][33]. 3.2 China's Iron Ore Consumption - Affected by the domestic economic cycle, China's iron ore consumption increased before 2015 and has remained stable at a high level since then. In 2024, China's iron ore apparent consumption was 1.473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The compound annual growth rate from 2010 to 2024 was 3.15%. China's iron ore demand is highly dependent on imports, with an import - to - consumption ratio of 86% in 2023. The most demanded iron ore type is sinter ore, followed by pellet ore and lump ore [37][38][43]. IV. China's Iron Ore Industry Competition - From 2003 - 2017, small and medium - sized iron ore producers expanded rapidly. After 2017, due to mine consolidation, many small mines exited the market, and the market share of large key enterprises increased from 18% in 2010 to 39% in 2023 [47]. V. Global Iron Ore Production Cost - Global iron ore production costs vary significantly among different mines. The top four global iron ore producers (Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto, and FMG) have low production costs and high iron grades. China's iron ore generally has low iron content and variable production costs ranging from 300 - 900 yuan per ton. Iron ore price fluctuations can adjust global supply. When the price is between $80 - $100 per ton, the global shipping volume is about 137 million tons [50][51]. VI. Steel Industry Overview 6.1 Steel Production - Since the 21st century, global pig iron and crude steel production have grown rapidly, with the growth rate slowing down after 2015. In 2024, global pig iron and crude steel production were 1.421 billion tons and 1.934 billion tons respectively. China is the world's largest steel producer, with pig iron and crude steel production of 893 million tons and 1.099 billion tons respectively in 2024, accounting for 62.9% and 56.8% of the global total. The main production areas in China are Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [53]. 6.2 Steel Consumption - In 2024, global crude steel consumption was 1.938 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's crude steel consumption was 989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, accounting for 51.03% of the global total. Consumption outside China was 947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Since the implementation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate sector in 2021, China's steel consumption structure has changed significantly, with a sharp decline in real - estate steel demand and an increase in export and manufacturing demand [61]. VII. Iron Ore Price Performance - Iron ore prices fluctuate with supply and demand. After the 2008 global financial crisis, prices rose rapidly due to strong demand from emerging economies and insufficient global supply. From 2011 - 2015, prices fell due to over - supply and weakening Chinese demand. After 2016, prices were volatile at a low level due to steel industry reforms. After the Vale dam collapse and post - COVID - 19 recovery, prices reached a record high. Since 2021, prices have been under pressure due to China's crude steel production cuts and real - estate policies. In 2025, the supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is currently fluctuating around $100 per ton [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Core Viewpoints - The short - term domestic macro expectations have increased, the market may trade the strong reality, the demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak, and the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series fluctuated narrowly, the finished product end was relatively weak, and the demand continued the off - season characteristics. The supply of iron ore showed a seasonal increase, but the carbon element gave way to the iron element, the blast furnace profit was considerable, and the domestic demand was at a relatively high level, supporting the price. Since June, the basis of iron ore has returned from the spot to the futures, the spot price has dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures price has been relatively stable [2] Supply - This week, the overseas ore shipments increased significantly compared with the previous week, and the arrivals also increased significantly. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that the shipments will continue to increase steadily, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly, with the support of the supply side weakening marginally. Later, attention should be paid to the delivery of non - mainstream mines [2] Demand - The domestic molten iron production ended five weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current steel mill profitability rate is high, the blast furnace profit is considerable, the short - process is in deep loss, and the iron - scrap difference has widened significantly. It is expected that the short - term demand for iron ore will be strong, and the high demand will support the price [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. The port inventory has decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will accumulate slightly later, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic macro expectation has increased, the market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range and run strongly. The later focus is on whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the policy increment of the Political Bureau meeting [3] 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the escalation and easing of geopolitical tensions. The black series fluctuated narrowly, and the iron ore price followed the trend, with coking coal performing strongly. The demand for finished products continued the off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing stronger than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal incremental characteristics, and the carbon element continued to give way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit was relatively considerable, and the domestic iron ore demand remained at a relatively high level, supporting the iron ore price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures was relatively stable [3] Supply - Last Monday, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia to China and the total Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively high level, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. The arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month. Overall, June is the peak season for overseas iron ore shipments. It is expected that the overseas shipments will steadily recover, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly. The support from the supply side will weaken marginally. The later focus is on the investment of non - mainstream mines [3] Demand - The domestic hot metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average hot metal production is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). With the high profitability of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term iron ore demand will be tough and support the price [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - going shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills has been rising month - on - month, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on demand. Due to the decrease in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3] Price - The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to view the price as "oscillating weakly" and take a bearish stance [2]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic macro - expectation is weak, the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The demand maintains a downward trend but stays at a relatively high level, and the supply side has a strong expectation of incremental growth. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will oscillate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and the iron ore price followed. The demand for finished products shows off - season characteristics but no inventory accumulation. The supply of iron ore has a seasonal increase, and the profit of blast furnaces is relatively good. Domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which supports the iron ore price [2]. Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. In June, it is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. With the fiscal year end volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic hot - metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The current daily average hot - metal output is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). The current profit rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is relatively good. With the full - depth losses of short - process steelmaking, the demand for iron ore is resilient, and high demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - floating shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on - demand due to weak demand expectations. Due to the decline in arrivals and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak due to high demand [2]. Price - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly and should be treated bearishly [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is that the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated with a bearish view [2]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the impact of tariffs will gradually emerge, and geopolitical factors will increase price uncertainty. In the short - term, the domestic macro - expectation is weak, and the market focus returns to a weak pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. With demand in a downward trend and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival at ports) increasing, the short - term iron ore price is expected to run weakly in a fluctuating manner [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, with Australian shipments rising notably while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. As June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments and Australian BHP and FMG mines are in their fiscal year end for volume - boosting, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron output has declined for five consecutive weeks, with the current daily average at 241.61 (a month - on - month decrease of 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is also considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking, it is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level but with a relatively gentle downward slope. The high - level demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills increased on a month - on - month basis. The daily consumption continued to decline but remained at a high level compared to the same period. As the market has a weak expectation for demand, the expectation for restocking is also weak. With the increase in the arrival volume at ports and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in the later period, but due to the high - level demand, the pressure for inventory accumulation is relatively weak [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, leading to a weak and volatile ore price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation and Forecast - The iron ore market is in a situation where supply increases and demand weakens. Overseas ore prices declined weakly during the holiday, steel mills' production is weakening, and iron ore demand is continuously falling. Meanwhile, port arrivals are rising from a low level, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and the supply pressure is large. Although the domestic ore production decline due to inspections, the overall supply is still abundant. The futures price has a large discount, which provides some resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be weak and volatile [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and terminal ore consumption is continuously declining. Although the current demand is still at a relatively high level this year, the traditional off - season of the steel market is coming, and high - level molten iron production cannot be sustained, so demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, while domestic port arrivals are falling and port inventories are being well reduced, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly. Domestic mines are also actively producing, so the supply pressure is still large. In general, the iron ore market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals are weakening. However, due to the high - level demand and the deep discount of futures prices, the downward resistance is large. It is expected that the operation logic of the iron ore market will switch between strong reality and weak expectations, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,987.83, a week - on - week decrease of 178.26, a decrease of 273.17 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 867.49 compared with the same period [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,925.48, a week - on - week decrease of 35.68, a decrease of 147.55 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 413.45 compared with the same period [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,271.30, a week - on - week decrease of 83.30, a decrease of 54.00 compared with last month, and a decrease of 575.80 compared with the same period [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,347.80, a week - on - week increase of 318.80, an increase of 422.30 compared with last month, and an increase of 279.10 compared with the same period [2] Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average molten iron production is 243.60, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17, a decrease of 0.75 compared with last month, and an increase of 6.80 compared with the same period [2] - 45 - port daily average port clearance volume is 327.09, a week - on - week increase of 3.20, a decrease of 0.83 compared with last month, and an increase of 28.13 compared with the same period [2] - 247 steel mills' daily imported ore consumption is 301.87, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04, an increase of 0.48 compared with last month, and an increase of 12.42 compared with the same period [2] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 90.23, a week - on - week decrease of 5.65, a decrease of 15.87 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.79 compared with the same period [2]