Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore price has been fluctuating at a high level recently. The main reasons are concerns about restricted domestic spot trade liquidity, unexpected reduction in foreign ore supply, increased iron ore demand, and rising shipping costs due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [3]. - In the short term, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore has marginally improved, but the macro - driving force remains weak. Geopolitical factors have increased the cost of iron ore. In the long run, trade restrictions will not change the pattern of loose supply - demand, and the release of spot liquidity will significantly pressure the price [3]. - The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan/ton for Dalian iron ore futures. The recommended strategy is range operation and selling call options [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - The current foreign ore shipment has significantly declined month - on - month due to the Australian hurricane but started to recover on March 29. Although it has a short - term impact on supply, the shipment from Brazil has increased significantly, so the short - term support for foreign ore supply has strengthened [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has entered a recovery cycle. The lifting of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, the seasonal increase in domestic demand, the increase in steel mill profits, and the speculative demand driven by the weakening basis have all contributed. However, the possibility of exceeding expectations is low, and the upward driving force on the demand side is neutral [3]. Inventory - The inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month, and their willingness to replenish inventory remains cautious. The port inventory has continued to decline, reducing the short - term port inventory pressure. There are still structural contradictions in domestic inventory, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The upward driving force on the inventory side is moderately strong [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore price has been maintaining a high - level oscillation recently. The main reasons include concerns about restricted domestic spot trade liquidity, an increase in demand and a slowdown in port inventory pressure, and a rise in iron ore costs due to the increase in shipping freight caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [3]. - In the short term, the supply - demand relationship of iron ore has marginally improved, but geopolitical factors have increased costs. In the long run, trade restrictions will not change the pattern of loose supply - demand, and the release of spot liquidity will put significant pressure on prices [3]. - The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan/ton for Dalian iron ore futures [3]. - The recommended strategy is range - bound trading and selling call options [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - External ore supply has rebounded month - on - month. Although the supply from Brazil has not fully recovered due to precipitation, Australia's shipments are strong. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has led to a lack of iron ore supply from Iran, and there is also pressure from transshipment from other countries. The supply of domestic ore is expected to enter a seasonal upward cycle. Overall, short - term supply support has weakened [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has entered a recovery cycle. The environmental protection restrictions in Hebei have been lifted, domestic demand has entered a seasonal increase cycle, and steel mill profits have rebounded month - on - month. The significant weakening of the basis recently has also driven speculative demand. However, the possibility of demand exceeding expectations is low, and the upward drive on the demand side is neutral [3]. Inventory - The resumption of production at steel mills has driven restocking demand, and the inventory level at steel mills has rebounded month - on - month. Port inventory has decreased month - on - month, and short - term port inventory pressure has weakened. There are still structural contradictions in domestic inventory, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The upward drive on the inventory side is moderately strong [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is expected to experience high - level weak and volatile trends. The market's operating logic is gradually returning to the industrial end, and the high - valued iron ore prices are under pressure [2][3]. 3. Summary by Section Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for iron ore 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weak" respectively, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the industrial logic has returned, and the ore price is under pressure at a high level [2]. Market Driving Logic - The structural contradictions of the variety may be resolved, and the previous positive factors are weakening, causing the ore price to fall from a high level. - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills are actively resuming production, and the demand for ore has improved. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain to be resolved, and the profit situation of steel mills is not good, so the incremental space for demand is limited. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, the shipments of miners continue to increase, and the subsequent arrival of goods is expected to be stable according to the shipping schedule. The supply of domestic mines has increased, and the ore supply shows a steady - to - rising trend. - Overall, the positive factors are weakening, and the market is likely to show a high - level weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices and the shipments of Australian ore [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Macro drivers remain weak, short - term iron ore supply - demand relationship improves marginally, geopolitical factors increase iron ore costs, but supply - demand changes and cost increases can't support rapid and significant price increases. Short - term iron ore prices are not determined by fundamentals, with over - heated market speculation. Later, beware of market sentiment decline and regulatory risks, especially trade negotiation progress. In the long run, trade restrictions won't change the loose supply - demand pattern, and the release of spot liquidity will put significant pressure on prices. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External ore supply has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Brazil's output hasn't fully recovered due to precipitation, and there are concerns about the impact of US - Iran geopolitical factors on Iran's global iron ore supply, along with transfer pressure from other countries. Domestic ore supply is expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, short - term supply - side pressure has decreased month - on - month. [3] Demand - Domestic demand is in a recovery cycle. After the lifting of environmental restrictions in Hebei, concentrated resumption of production has led to a significant increase in hot metal. Recently, the significant weakening of the basis has driven speculative demand. However, the probability of terminal demand growing beyond expectations is low. Later, attention should be paid to the de - stocking slope of steel inventories and the intensity of resumption of work. It is expected that domestic iron ore demand has some support but the possibility of exceeding expectations is low, and the upward drive on the demand side is neutral. [4] Inventory - The resumption of production at steel mills has driven restocking demand, and the inventory level at steel mills has increased month - on - month. Port inventories have decreased month - on - month, and short - term port inventory pressure has weakened. With the recovery of domestic demand and trade restrictions, the structural contradiction of domestic inventories still exists, and there is an expectation of inventory de - stocking. The upward drive on the inventory side is moderately strong. [4] Price - The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to Dalian iron ore futures at 790 - 825 yuan/ton. [5] Strategy - Adopt range - bound operation and sell call options. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January, iron ore demand was primarily rigid, with increased blast furnace maintenance in steel mills and a seasonal decline in terminal demand, resulting in slight fluctuations in molten iron output. After the holiday, blast furnace复产 will drive up daily consumption, but the finished product inventory will suppress profits, and there is a high probability that the peak - season demand will fall short, with a slow recovery in molten iron output expected. The total output in February is likely to be lower than that in January due to the holiday, providing limited support on the demand side [3][45] - The iron ore supply will remain in a loose pattern. Although the shipments from mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly month - on - month, the port inventory has reached a historical high due to the delayed arrival of previous high - volume shipments. The shipments of non - mainstream mines declined due to price factors, and domestic mines were also affected by seasonal production restrictions. Although the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may disrupt shipments in the second quarter, the high inventory in the short term is difficult to alleviate, and the supply side will continue to suppress the ore price [3][45] - In the next month, iron ore is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under oscillatory pressure. On the supply side, the shipments of overseas mainstream mines will remain high, and the port inventory pressure will still be significant. On the demand side, the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday will be slow, the high inventory of finished products will continuously suppress profits, and the room for the recovery of molten iron output will be limited. The reference range for iron ore is 700 - 830 yuan/ton [3][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January, iron ore futures first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, driven by macro sentiment, the ore price once reached around 830 yuan/ton, then declined from the high level. After the release of market sentiment, funds traded based on fundamentals again. With strong supply and weak demand in fundamentals and increasing port inventory pressure, iron ore was under pressure. On the demand side, steel mills carried out off - season maintenance of blast furnaces, terminal demand was weak, and molten iron output fluctuated slightly. On the supply side, the global shipments in January decreased, with declines in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries, but the arrival volume was still higher than the same period last year due to the previous high - volume shipments. In terms of inventory, the port inventory significantly increased by 10.51 million tons compared with the beginning of the month, and the inventory of 247 steel mills also increased by 10.22 million tons [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Mill Start - up Contraction, Focus on Restocking Rhythm before the Festival - In January, domestic blast furnace production was generally in a weakly stable state. Affected by the seasonal weakening of terminal demand before the Spring Festival, although the maintenance of steel mills increased, due to the repair of the profit per ton of mainstream long - process steel in the previous month, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate remained in the range of 80% - 85%. The average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was about 2.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 million tons. Regionally, in North China, restricted by regular environmental protection production restrictions, the blast furnace load was maintained at 75% - 80%. In East and South China, due to the production reduction of short - process electric furnaces, some market space was freed up, and the blast furnace start - up rate increased to 88% - 90%, becoming the main highlight of production this month. In the short - process aspect, approaching the Spring Festival and with scrap steel prices at a high level, independent electric furnace plants concentrated on arranging shutdown maintenance, and the start - up rate declined significantly, having a marginal negative impact on the overall steel supply [9] - Overall, iron ore consumption in January was mainly driven by rigid demand. If the resumption of work after the holiday drives the复产 of blast furnaces, daily consumption is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the suppression of profits by the accumulation of finished product inventory, and the short - term growth space of consumption is limited. The resumption rhythm of blast furnaces after the Spring Festival may depend on the level of finished product inventory. It is expected that the inflection point of inventory reduction will not occur until mid - to late March, and there is a high probability that this year's peak - season demand will fall short. Correspondingly, the recovery speed of molten iron output is expected to be slow. The average daily molten iron output in February may only slightly increase compared with January, but the total molten iron output in February is likely to be lower than that in January due to the holiday [9] 2.2 Overseas Iron Ore Supply Maintains a Loose Pattern - In January, iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume continued to increase, maintaining an overall loose pattern. The shipments of major mines in Australia and Brazil remained resilient. The total shipments from Australia in the whole month were about 72 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Among them, the weekly peak shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton fell below 16 million tons due to short - term port maintenance. The shipments from Brazil were about 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The capacity release of the S11D mine in the north of Vale partially offset the impact of the rainy season in the south, and the shipment stability increased. Affected by ore price fluctuations, the shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa decreased by 8.3% month - on - month to 12 million tons, and the resumption of production of small and medium - sized mines lacked momentum. The total global shipments were about 112 million tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The arrival volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year to about 108 million tons due to the lagged arrival of previous high - volume shipments, significantly higher than the port clearance demand. The port inventory accelerated its accumulation, reaching a new high in the past six months. Overall, the loose supply pattern was further strengthened, which may suppress the ore price in the short term, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on shipments in the second quarter [24] 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In January, the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. The inventory at 45 ports reached 170 million tons, a month - on - month increase of more than 10 million tons, hitting a new historical high, and the overall inventory pressure significantly increased. This inventory accumulation was mainly due to the previous high - level global shipments, resulting in concentrated arrivals this month. At the same time, affected by blast furnace maintenance and weakening demand before the Spring Festival, the port clearance volume was relatively low, and the arrival volume continued to be higher than the port clearance volume, resulting in a significant net increase in inventory. Currently, the port inventory is at an absolute high level, indicating a clear loose supply pattern. In the short term, the high inventory may be the main factor suppressing the rebound of the ore price [30] 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In January, the total iron ore inventory of steel mills increased. Affected by transportation restrictions before the Spring Festival and relatively stable blast furnace production, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.22 million tons month - on - month to 105 million tons, and the available days of inventory rose to 35.48 days, a new high in the past three months. The inventory increase was mainly because steel mills replenished raw materials in advance to avoid logistics disruptions during the holiday, combined with concentrated port arrivals and a slowdown in the port clearance rhythm, resulting in passive inventory accumulation in the mills. Although the traditional winter storage window opened at the end of the year and steel mills had a rigid demand for restocking, restricted by weak terminal orders, poor finished product sales, and limited profit repair, the actual restocking intensity was generally mild. At the same time, the continuously high port inventory also suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills, and most enterprises preferred to wait for price corrections to restock. The current mill inventory level can cover the production demand for 10 - 15 days after the holiday, and the restocking momentum has weakened. In the short term, steel mills will mainly digest the existing inventory, providing limited support for the upward movement of the ore price [40] 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - Affected by low - temperature weather and the Spring Festival holiday, the overall production of domestic mines contracted. In the northern main producing areas, the temperature dropped below - 10°C, the stripping operation of open - pit mines was restricted, and the ventilation and transportation efficiency of underground mines decreased. The overall start - up rate dropped to about 55%, an 8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Some open - pit mines in Southwest and Central China did not completely shut down, but their production capacity was pre - contracted due to the return of workers before the holiday. The monthly output of domestic iron ore concentrate was about 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and only a slight year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The supply increment was significantly lower than that of overseas mines. In terms of inventory, affected by the slowdown in downstream procurement rhythm, the concentrate inventory of mines slightly increased, but overall, it remained within a reasonable range [42] 2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - Last month, the iron ore shipping freight first declined and then rose. As of February 3, the freight rate on the route from Dampier, Australia, to Qingdao was reported at $8.89/ton, a month - on - month increase of $0.49/ton and a growth rate of 5.8%. The freight rate on the route from Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao was reported at $25.21/ton, a month - on - month increase of $3.07/ton and a growth rate of 13.9%. The increase in freight was not due to strong fundamentals. On the demand side, affected by the slowdown in the restocking rhythm of steel mills before the Chinese Spring Festival, the demand for chartering ships weakened. On the supply side, the global dry bulk fleet capacity increased by 3.8% year - on - year, and the port congestion index was at a low level within the year, with improved capacity turnover efficiency and a loose market supply. At the same time, the fuel cost decreased in line with international oil prices. This phased rebound in shipping freight has limited support for the iron ore price [44] 3. Market Outlook - Demand side: In January, iron ore demand was mainly rigid, with increased blast furnace maintenance in steel mills and a seasonal decline in terminal demand, resulting in slight fluctuations in molten iron output. After the holiday, blast furnace复产 will drive up daily consumption, but the finished product inventory will suppress profits, and there is a high probability that the peak - season demand will fall short, with a slow recovery in molten iron output expected. The total output in February is likely to be lower than that in January due to the holiday, providing limited support on the demand side [45] - Supply side: The iron ore supply will remain in a loose pattern. Although the shipments from mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly month - on - month, the port inventory has reached a historical high due to the delayed arrival of previous high - volume shipments. The shipments of non - mainstream mines declined due to price factors, and domestic mines were also affected by seasonal production restrictions. Although the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may disrupt shipments in the second quarter, the high inventory in the short term is difficult to alleviate, and the supply side will continue to suppress the ore price [45] - In the next month, iron ore is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under oscillatory pressure. On the supply side, the shipments of overseas mainstream mines will remain high, and the port inventory pressure will still be significant. On the demand side, the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday will be slow, the high inventory of finished products will continuously suppress profits, and the room for the recovery of molten iron output will be limited. The reference range for iron ore is 700 - 830 yuan/ton [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is currently in a marginal adjustment phase, with short - term downward pressure and the price center of gravity may be under phased pressure. However, considering factors such as steel mills' restocking demand, inventory structural characteristics, and the season of frequent weather disturbances on the supply side, the downside space is relatively limited. The price is more likely to maintain a weak oscillating trend. Future development should focus on shipping rhythm, changes in hot metal production, and pricing negotiations [2][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas mainstream mines' shipments have entered the seasonal off - season. The weekly shipment data of Australia and Brazil has declined, while the domestic port arrivals remain at a relatively high level, mainly due to the concentrated arrival of shipments from the end - of - year rush in 2025. After the arrival volume is released, it is expected to decline month - on - month. The annual production and shipment guidance of mainstream mines remains stable. FMG's 2026 fiscal year shipment target is 195 - 205 million tons, Rio Tinto's 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment target (100%) is 323 - 338 million tons, and the shipment target for the southern block of Simandou is 5 - 10 million tons. BHP's 2026 fiscal year target shipment volume (100%) is 284 - 296 million tons [7] Demand - Steel mills' raw material procurement has improved, and pre - holiday restocking has begun. There is still room for inventory to increase before the Spring Festival. However, the explosion at Baotou Steel's plate mill on January 18, 2026, and the subsequent planned blast furnace maintenance are expected to affect the daily hot metal production by 15,900 tons, which will have a marginal negative impact on iron ore demand in the short term [11][14] Inventory and Pricing - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is over 165 million tons, a five - year high. The structural strength of medium - grade ore inventory has supported the spot price. BHP's attitude change in the annual contract negotiation is worthy of attention. If the mainstream mines make concessions in some categories and conditions, it may cool down the expectation of continued price increase and release the inventory pressure [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side shows that last week's hot metal production continued to stabilize, the in - plant inventory increased slightly, and the steel mills' restocking efforts were average. The supply side indicates that after the year - end mine rush, overseas iron ore shipments declined last week, and there will be significant arrival pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with port inventories at a high level. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, short - term sentiment has eased, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3144 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a gain of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 6567825 lots, and a total open interest of 2367759 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3294 yuan/ton, a rise of 24 yuan, a gain of 0.73%, a total trading volume of 2987286 lots, and a total open interest of 1440895 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 814.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 25.0 yuan, a gain of 3.17%, a total trading volume of 1706517 lots, and a total open interest of 636674 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1195.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 80.5 yuan, a gain of 7.22%, a total trading volume of 7162354 lots, and a total open interest of 621167 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1748.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 55.0 yuan, a gain of 3.25%, a total trading volume of 158354 lots, and a total open interest of 39551 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures first rose and then fell, with the center of the futures price moving up. During the week, the fluctuations increased due to the drive of coking coal and coke. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 701 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 122 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, last week, the hot metal production of 247 steel mills continued to stabilize. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 229.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.13 tons [4]. - On the supply side, after the year - end mine rush, overseas iron ore shipments declined last week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2742.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 316.9 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17044.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 322.65 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 336.96 tons, a decrease of 3.25 tons [5]. Industry News - The US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. UN Secretary - General Guterres was deeply shocked by the recent escalation of the situation in Venezuela. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action against Venezuela at 10:00 local time on January 5 [10]. - The 2026 work conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5 - 6. The meeting emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts. It also mentioned flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [10]. - In December 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 10.3266 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 52.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.5%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 9.7901 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 27% [10]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including those on the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the basis spread of iron ore, and various production, shipment, inventory, and price - related charts of iron ore [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global iron ore supply-demand relationship is statically loose. The supply increase is mainly from non-mainstream mines and those in Guinea. The domestic demand faces downward pressure, while overseas demand will see a slight increase. Port inventories will continue to accumulate, and iron ore prices may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong due to supply contraction, steel mill复产, winter storage, and construction start expectations. In the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure as supply increases and demand remains weak [3][44]. - In terms of spot-futures and inter-month arbitrage, the mismatch between the realization of supply increase expectations and the fluctuation rhythm of hot metal production may bring arbitrage opportunities. For example, in March, attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - period positive spread and spot - futures reverse spread [3][44]. - For inter - variety arbitrage, if the supply increase is realized, iron ore may change from a relatively strong variety in the black commodities to a relatively weak one. Opportunities for the contraction of the ratio of iron ore to coking coal and coke can be considered, as well as the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio after the supply increase of iron ore is realized [3][44][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Ore Demand Side - Weak at Home, Strong Abroad, with a Slight Steady Increase 1.1 Domestic Demand: Still Under Pressure - In 2025, from January to November, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 5.3%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the decline widened by 1.0 percentage points compared with the first 10 months. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year from January to November, but the growth rate slowed down [8][11][12]. - In 2025, China's steel consumption was 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. In 2026, the steel demand is expected to be 790 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Due to the real estate market not bottoming out, the demand for construction steel in 2026 may be weaker than expected, with the national steel demand decreasing by more than 2.0% year - on - year [17]. - In 2026, constrained by the decline in domestic steel demand, steel mills may find it difficult to maintain profits under inventory pressure. According to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the pig iron output is estimated to be 855 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons [23][26]. 1.2 Foreign Demand: Steady Growth - The Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute predicts that the global steel consumption in 2025 was 1.719 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and in 2026, the global steel demand will be 1.736 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The World Steel Association expects that the global steel demand in 2026 will rebound moderately by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, mainly driven by the strong performance of India, some ASEAN, and Middle East and North African countries [24]. - Considering China's large base of steel demand, it is expected that the global steel demand will increase by 0.8% year - on - year in 2026. The steel demand of countries other than China will increase by 3.5% year - on - year, which translates to an increase of 33.5 million tons in 62% iron ore demand [24][26]. 1.3 Demand Summary - Domestically, the iron ore demand in 2026 is estimated to be 1.5 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 16 million tons. Overseas, the iron ore demand is expected to increase by 33.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons in 2026 [26]. Chapter 2: Ore Supply Side - Mainstream Mines are Stable, Focus on Increment from Emerging Mines 2.1 Australian and Brazilian Mainstream Mines: Goal - Oriented, with Steady Growth - In 2025, the world's four major iron ore giants all achieved or exceeded their annual production or shipment targets. In 2026, the total output of the four major mines is expected to reach 1.135 billion tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with the actual output in 2025. The supply is abundant, and the sales volume in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half, with a total sequential increase of 36.6 million tons [27][30][38]. - Vale and Rio Tinto will be the main contributors to the increase in the second half of the year, with sequential increases of 15 million tons and 13 million tons respectively. BHP's increase is the smallest, only 1.48 million tons, indicating limited production growth space. FMG's sales volume will increase by 7.12 million tons in the second half of the year, showing moderate expansion [30][38][40]. 2.2 Foreign Non - Mainstream Mines and Domestic Mines: Guinea and India Contribute the Main Increment - In 2025, the iron ore shipments from non - Australian and non - Brazilian regions increased significantly. In 2026, the Simandou project in Guinea will contribute the main increment, with an estimated output of 20 million tons from the north and south blocks combined. India's iron ore production and sales are expected to continue to grow. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines in 2026 is 34 million tons [33]. - In 2025, the output of domestic iron concentrate was estimated to be 243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8 million tons. In 2026, the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is expected to be 2 - 3.5 million tons, mainly from the technological transformation and expansion of leading enterprises. However, due to resource, environmental protection, and international ore price constraints, the possibility of significant growth is low [35]. 2.3 Supply Summary - The total output of the four major foreign mines is expected to increase by 18 million tons in 2026. The estimated increment of non - mainstream mines is 34 million tons, and the supply increment of domestic iron concentrate is 2 - 3.5 million tons. Overall, the global iron ore supply will increase in 2026, with an estimated year - on - year increment of 54 - 55.5 million tons [38][40]. Chapter 3: Ore Inventory Side - Steel Mills Control Inventories, Ports Face Pressure 3.1 Port Inventory: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation - At the end of December, the inventory of 45 ports was 159 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of 6.71%. In 2026, the iron ore supply - demand relationship is statically loose, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate [41]. 3.2 Steel Mills: Winter Storage is Delayed, and the Low - Inventory Model Continues - The current inventory level is at a low point in 2025. Due to steel mill maintenance in December and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the low - inventory model of steel mills remains unchanged. It is expected that steel mills will start to replenish inventory from January to February 2026 and then maintain a relatively low - inventory structure [42]. Chapter 4: Iron Ore Summary and Trading Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year - In terms of supply - demand pattern, in 2026, the global iron ore supply will increase by about 54 - 55.5 million tons, the demand will increase by about 17.5 million tons, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. Steel mills maintain a cautious approach and adopt a low - inventory management strategy for raw materials [44]. - Overall, the iron ore price may face downward pressure, with the price center expected to drop to $85 - $90. In the first and second quarters, prices may be relatively strong, while in the third and fourth quarters, prices may face pressure. In terms of arbitrage, attention can be paid to spot - futures and inter - month arbitrage in March, as well as inter - variety arbitrage opportunities such as the contraction of the iron ore - coking coal/coke ratio and the expansion of the rebar - iron ore ratio [3][44][45].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, with the supply - demand contradiction accumulating and the upward driving force being limited [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation and weakening", and the overall view is "high - level fluctuation". The core logic is the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions and limited upward driving force [1]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, with inventory rising at a high level. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption of ore remains at a low level, and the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, so weak demand is likely to put pressure on ore prices, although steel mills have replenished stocks to some extent. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have declined slightly, while miners' shipments have reached a new high for the year. Overall, ore supply remains high. With the fermentation of positive factors, the ore price has returned to a high level, but the demand is weakening and supply is high, so the price will maintain a high - level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore prices continued their weak and volatile trend this week. Affected by the seasonal decline in hot metal production and cautious steel mill procurement, the demand side weakened marginally. The supply side maintained stable shipments, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Coupled with the high valuation, the upward momentum of prices was suppressed. Although there was some order resilience in the finished product market, the clear characteristics of the terminal seasonal off - season made it difficult to provide effective support. In the short term, the pattern of weak supply and demand remained unchanged. The market focus shifted to the extent of hot metal production cuts in January and policy expectations. It was expected that prices would continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to cost support and restocking rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28 million tons (-3.56%); Australian shipments were 19.506 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons (-4.97%); Brazilian shipments were 8.641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.488 million tons (-5.35%); the combined shipments from Australia and Brazil were 28.147 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.508 million tons (-5.09%) [3][38]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data of four major mines through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [46][47]. - **Ocean Freight**: The ocean freight from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45 per ton (-13.99%); the ocean freight from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68 per ton (-2.80%) [53]. - **Domestic Port Arrival Volume**: This week, the iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.767 million tons (-2.82%) [55]. - **Domestic Mine Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 58.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% (-1.61%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37,100 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons per day (-1.62%) [57]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.94%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01% (+0.01%); the daily average hot metal output was 2.2658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons (+0.01%); the profit ratio was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% (+3.62%) [63]. - **Sintered Powder Consumption**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (-0.38%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 610,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,500 tons (+9.01%) [65]. - **Global Steel Production**: The report presents data on global blast furnace pig iron production, Chinese blast furnace pig iron production, and global crude steel production through multiple charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [71][75][76]. - **Port Dispatching Situation**: The report presents data on the seasonal dispatching volume of 45 ports and the daily average dispatching volume of Qingdao Port through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [83][84]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons (+2.23%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 166.1996 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9443 million tons (+2.43%) [87]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons (+1.56%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 12.0626 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,700 tons (+2.18%) [95]. 3.4 Futures Market - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The settlement price of the main contract was 776.50 yuan per ton, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.50 yuan per ton (-0.06%); the basis was 30.02 yuan per ton, a week - on - week narrowing of 4.29 yuan per ton (-12.50%); the Platts iron ore price index was 107.90 US dollars per dry ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.20 US dollars per dry ton (+0.19%); the screw - to - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.003 [7]. - **Inter - monthly Spread on the Futures Market**: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.50 yuan per ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.50 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan per ton. The spreads between the domestic and foreign markets and between different varieties maintained narrow - range fluctuations, and there was no obvious structural differentiation [3]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The report presents data on iron ore futures positions, trading volume, and exchange - registered warrants through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [11][12][16]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report presents data on the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder price through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [17][19][22]. - **Lump - to - Powder Ore Price Spread**: The report presents data on the blending ore price spread, lump - to - powder ore price spread, and price spreads between different grades through charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [23][26][29]. 3.6 Market Viewpoint Summary - **Overall Market Viewpoint Summary**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand but with improved expectations. With high inventories, prices fluctuated strongly, and macro - sentiment supported prices. - **This Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 5 institutions were bullish, 7 were neutral, and 1 was bearish. - **Last Week's Viewpoint Distribution**: 3 institutions were bullish, 12 were neutral, and 3 were bearish. - **Points of Disagreement and Expected Differences**: The game between the expected marginal improvement in supply and demand and high inventories and weak demand dominated the short - term divergence in the iron ore market [6]. 3.7 Key News and Industrial Chain Dynamics - **Steel Mill Dynamics**: On December 23, 2025, MagIron, a US steel raw material developer, planned to acquire the local Reynolds pellet plant; on December 24, 2025, Morocco's Somasteel company invested tens of millions of dollars to build a new steel mill; on December 26, 2025, the No. 2 blast furnace of ArcelorMittal's Fos - sur - Mer steel mill in France fully resumed production after a fire [4]. - **Mine Dynamics**: On December 22, 2025, Canadian mining company Champion Iron planned to acquire Norwegian iron ore producer Rana Gruber for $289 million; on December 26, 2025, the Guinea iron ore project of US mining company Ivanhoe successfully obtained the railway and port use agreement; on December 26, 2025, Australian exploration company Pear Gull completed the sale of its Parrot Island iron ore project [4]. - **Macro - news**: On December 22, 2025, the Premier of the State Council proposed to plan a number of major projects that could drive the overall situation; on December 22, 2025, the December LPR remained unchanged; on December 23, 2025, the A - share market showed a narrow - range consolidation with increased trading volume; on December 23, 2025, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed to promote the spot - house sales system; on December 24, 2025, the initial value of the annualized growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%; on December 25, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000; on December 26, 2025, the renovation of old residential communities that started construction in the first 11 months had completed the annual plan; on December 26, 2025, China responded to the US tariff policy on China's semiconductor 301 investigation [4].