智通财经APP获悉，华龙证券发布研报称，行业方面，展望2026年，电新行业有望延续积极趋势，光伏 供给侧过剩产能出清，电池技术升级有望带来新机会。维持行业"推荐"评级。个股方面，光伏板块建议 关注具备现金、技术优势的主产业链龙头，辅材建议关注需求旺盛的支架环节，有望受益于铜代银趋势 的浆料及粉材、光伏设备企业，出货向好的逆变器企业。 华龙证券主要观点如下： 光伏板块净利润为负，净利率、ROE整体改善 主产业链主材净利润亏损收窄，硅料环节现金流改善明显 2025年Q1-Q3，光伏硅料/硅片/电池片/组件各环节分别实现归母净利润-63.43亿元/-57.69亿元/-9.51亿 元/-139.67亿元，部分企业单季度盈利转正。2025年Q3，主材环节现金及现金等价物余额1574亿元，环 比下降19亿元，组件环节承压明显;筹资规模增加54亿元，行业龙头筹措资金有助于缓解行业筑底期的 经营压力;经营性现金流环比提升27亿元，硅料环节现金流改善明显;购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长 期资产支付的现金环比提升24亿元，行业投资活动有望逐渐恢复。辅材环节2025年Q3收入及净利润整 体增长，分环节看光伏支架业绩下降，玻璃业绩边 ...

五矿证券近日发布25Q3光伏业绩总结：反内卷以来，硅料价格从3.4万元/吨反弹至5.1万元/吨，硅片、 电池价格也开始传导，组件端因电站接受度差，价格没有明显变化。25Q3是光伏主产业链亏损的第七 个季度，反内卷进程依然在推进，完成后产业链价格有望回归合理价格，带来行业估值修复。 以下为研究报告摘要： 25Q3光伏主产业链盈利有所好转，辅产业链环比持平 主产业链：随主产业链价格修复，25Q3主产业链整体有所减亏，毛利率和净利率环比提升。 辅产业链：辅产业链收入利润随规模变动，盈利性环比持平。 25Q3光伏资本开支依然低迷，资产负债率处于高位 资本开支上，25Q3行业资本开支依然处于低水平，整体亏损下企业扩产意愿依然不强。 资产负债率上，25Q3行业数据基本不变，结构上看，电池环节资产负债率略有好转。 整体来看，盈利亏损且依然没有明显改善的情况下，企业依然以生存为第一目标，部分环节资产负债率 依然需要降低到合适水平。 25Q3光伏主产业链短期净现金水平依然恶化 短期净现金流：辅产业链持稳，主产业链依然环比下滑。 库存：目前行业库存有所增加，多晶硅库存依然处于高位。 需求：国内光伏装机进入淡季，中长期全球光伏装机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the solar energy industry [3]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability within the main supply chain, while the auxiliary supply chain remains stable [4][6]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a valuation recovery in the industry, with a focus on improving supply-demand dynamics [30][26]. - Despite the current challenges, including high inventory levels and low capital expenditure, there are signs of improvement in profitability for certain segments like polysilicon [30][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the main supply chain of the solar industry showed a reduction in losses, with both gross and net profit margins improving compared to the previous quarter [6][4]. - The auxiliary supply chain's revenue and profit remained stable, indicating a lack of significant growth or decline [6][11]. Capital Expenditure and Debt Levels - Capital expenditure in the solar industry remains low, reflecting a cautious approach from companies amid ongoing losses [11][9]. - The overall debt-to-asset ratio has remained stable, with slight improvements noted in the battery segment [11][10]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory levels have increased, particularly in polysilicon, which remains at a high level [16][15]. - The short-term net cash flow continues to decline in the main supply chain, while the auxiliary supply chain remains stable [15][14]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The domestic solar installation market is entering a slow season, with global installation growth expected to stabilize between 5% and 10% in the medium to long term [21][23]. - The "anti-involution" measures are seen as a pathway to restore reasonable pricing across the supply chain, which could lead to a recovery in industry valuations [30][26]. Future Outlook - The report highlights optimism regarding the potential for valuation recovery in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery components due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [30][26]. - New technologies, such as copper replacing silver in materials and advancements in perovskite solar cells, are expected to create opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [30][26].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic battery metallization process is undergoing a technological transition from silver paste to copper alternatives due to rising silver prices, with metalization costs nearing 30% of total battery costs [1] - Copper, with its similar conductivity and significant cost advantages, is becoming the core direction for cost reduction, although it faces technical challenges such as oxidation and migration [1] - The introduction period for copper paste is expected to be from 2025 to 2026, followed by a rapid penetration phase from 2027 to 2028, with projected copper paste demand reaching 6,000 tons by 2030 [1] Group 2 - The processing fees for copper paste are higher than traditional silver paste, which may enhance the profitability of paste manufacturers, although technical barriers related to copper powder consistency and oxidation resistance remain [1] - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which selects technology innovation companies in solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage to reflect the overall performance of leading firms in the new energy sector [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from silver paste to copper paste in photovoltaic cells as a significant trend for cost reduction in the industry. The rising silver prices and the competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector are driving this shift towards cheaper metal alternatives [55][56]. - The report anticipates that the introduction of copper paste will occur between 2025 and 2026, with rapid penetration expected from 2027 to 2028. By 2030, the demand for copper paste is projected to reach approximately 6,000 tons, while the demand for silver paste is expected to decrease to around 3,000 tons [42][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Role and Principle of Copper Paste - Metalization is a crucial process in photovoltaic cell production, impacting efficiency, cost, and reliability. The main goal is to reduce costs and improve efficiency through various metalization techniques [14][15]. - The transition from silver to copper is driven by the need to lower costs, as copper has a similar conductivity to silver but is significantly cheaper [22]. 2. Impact of Copper Paste on Cost Reduction - The report indicates that metalization costs are becoming a larger portion of the total battery cost, reaching approximately 30%. This makes it a primary target for cost reduction efforts [31]. - The copper alternative can significantly lower metalization costs compared to silver paste, with projections showing substantial savings in both TOPCON and BC cell applications [35][40]. 3. Industrialization Challenges and Solutions for Copper Paste - The report discusses the challenges of copper oxidation and migration during the manufacturing process, which can affect the performance of photovoltaic cells. Solutions include protective coatings and the use of seed layers to prevent copper diffusion into silicon [23][27]. - The anticipated industrialization of copper paste is expected to enhance profitability for paste manufacturers, as the shift to copper will likely increase processing fees compared to traditional silver paste [45]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The transition to copper paste is expected to alter the competitive landscape among paste manufacturers, with companies needing to invest in new technologies and processes to maintain their market positions [49]. - The report notes that companies are already beginning to develop copper powder capabilities to enhance their competitiveness in the copper paste market [51].