智通财经APP获悉，五矿证券发布研报称，光伏需求短期处于偏弱状态，近几月排产持续下行，中期来 看，国内市场受到电价制约，欧洲市场受到电网设施不足影响，美国市场受到大而美法案的补贴快速退 坡掣肘，需求也处于偏弱状态。风电行业方面，当前需求主要在于欧洲市场，其陆风和海风CAGR5分 别为14%和34%，目前欧洲风电订单及FID数据均呈现出不错的增长趋势，尤其2025H1海上风电FID金 额同比增长1.8倍，欧洲海风的增长更为可观。 风机反内卷也在推进，2024Q3以来，风机投标价格持续回升，风机盈利改善也逐步在报表端体现，看 未来，风机大型化的趋缓会减少风机价格压力，盈利改善持续。 新能源入市后，因新能源电力处于过剩状态，现货电价下行，机制电价大多低于煤电基准价，同时光伏 电力供需错配程度高于风电，光伏电价更低，这会负面影响光伏的投资需求，风电受影响相对小。 光伏：需求中短期受限，反内卷是重心 光伏需求短期处于偏弱状态，近几月排产持续下行，中期来看，国内市场受到电价制约，欧洲市场受到 电网设施不足影响，美国市场受到大而美法案的补贴快速退坡掣肘，需求也处于偏弱状态。因此，行业 关注点主要在于供给侧。 反内卷目前已经 ...

Industry Outlook - The new energy industry is expected to maintain a positive trend through 2026, with an oversupply of photovoltaic capacity being cleared and battery technology upgrades likely to create new opportunities [1] - The industry maintains a "recommended" rating [1] Company Performance - The photovoltaic equipment industry reported a revenue of 618.9 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.05%, and a net profit of -6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 158.82% [2] - The gross margin for the photovoltaic equipment industry was 10.76%, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points compared to 2024, while the net margin was 1.42%, up 1.8 percentage points from 2024 [2] Segment Analysis - In Q3 2025, the main photovoltaic industry chain (silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules) continued to report negative net profits, although there was significant improvement in the silicon material and battery cell segments [3] - The cash flow for the silicon material segment showed notable improvement, with the main material segments reporting net profits of -6.34 billion yuan for silicon materials, -5.77 billion yuan for silicon wafers, -0.95 billion yuan for battery cells, and -13.97 billion yuan for modules in Q1-Q3 2025 [4] - The inverter segment maintained positive net profit growth since 2025, achieving a net profit of 5.664 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.39% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability, with the main industry chain showing signs of reduced losses and improved margins, while the auxiliary industry chain remains stable [2][9]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the price of silicon materials rebounded from 34,000 yuan/ton to 51,000 yuan/ton, leading to a transmission of price increases in silicon wafers and batteries, although component prices remained stable due to poor acceptance in power stations [8]. - Q3 2025 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of losses for the main photovoltaic industry chain, but the ongoing anti-involution process is expected to restore prices to reasonable levels, potentially leading to industry valuation recovery [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The overall profitability of the main industry chain improved in Q3 2025, with both gross and net profit margins showing a quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - Capital expenditure in the photovoltaic sector remains low, with companies showing limited willingness to expand production amid ongoing losses [3]. - The asset-liability ratio for the industry remains high, with slight improvements noted in the battery segment, indicating a focus on survival rather than growth [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Industry inventory levels have increased, with polysilicon inventory remaining high [6]. - Domestic photovoltaic installations are entering a low season, with medium to long-term global installation growth expected to be between 5% and 10% [7]. - The photovoltaic sector is primarily positioned to meet new electricity demand, with limited short-term capacity to replace traditional energy sources [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures are expected to improve industry supply and demand dynamics, with companies in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery components likely to benefit from valuation recovery [10]. - New technologies, such as copper replacing silver in materials and perovskite solar cells, present opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the industry [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the solar energy industry [3]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability within the main supply chain, while the auxiliary supply chain remains stable [4][6]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a valuation recovery in the industry, with a focus on improving supply-demand dynamics [30][26]. - Despite the current challenges, including high inventory levels and low capital expenditure, there are signs of improvement in profitability for certain segments like polysilicon [30][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the main supply chain of the solar industry showed a reduction in losses, with both gross and net profit margins improving compared to the previous quarter [6][4]. - The auxiliary supply chain's revenue and profit remained stable, indicating a lack of significant growth or decline [6][11]. Capital Expenditure and Debt Levels - Capital expenditure in the solar industry remains low, reflecting a cautious approach from companies amid ongoing losses [11][9]. - The overall debt-to-asset ratio has remained stable, with slight improvements noted in the battery segment [11][10]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory levels have increased, particularly in polysilicon, which remains at a high level [16][15]. - The short-term net cash flow continues to decline in the main supply chain, while the auxiliary supply chain remains stable [15][14]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The domestic solar installation market is entering a slow season, with global installation growth expected to stabilize between 5% and 10% in the medium to long term [21][23]. - The "anti-involution" measures are seen as a pathway to restore reasonable pricing across the supply chain, which could lead to a recovery in industry valuations [30][26]. Future Outlook - The report highlights optimism regarding the potential for valuation recovery in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery components due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [30][26]. - New technologies, such as copper replacing silver in materials and advancements in perovskite solar cells, are expected to create opportunities for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [30][26].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic battery metallization process is undergoing a technological transition from silver paste to copper alternatives due to rising silver prices, with metalization costs nearing 30% of total battery costs [1] - Copper, with its similar conductivity and significant cost advantages, is becoming the core direction for cost reduction, although it faces technical challenges such as oxidation and migration [1] - The introduction period for copper paste is expected to be from 2025 to 2026, followed by a rapid penetration phase from 2027 to 2028, with projected copper paste demand reaching 6,000 tons by 2030 [1] Group 2 - The processing fees for copper paste are higher than traditional silver paste, which may enhance the profitability of paste manufacturers, although technical barriers related to copper powder consistency and oxidation resistance remain [1] - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which selects technology innovation companies in solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage to reflect the overall performance of leading firms in the new energy sector [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from silver paste to copper paste in photovoltaic cells as a significant trend for cost reduction in the industry. The rising silver prices and the competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector are driving this shift towards cheaper metal alternatives [55][56]. - The report anticipates that the introduction of copper paste will occur between 2025 and 2026, with rapid penetration expected from 2027 to 2028. By 2030, the demand for copper paste is projected to reach approximately 6,000 tons, while the demand for silver paste is expected to decrease to around 3,000 tons [42][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Role and Principle of Copper Paste - Metalization is a crucial process in photovoltaic cell production, impacting efficiency, cost, and reliability. The main goal is to reduce costs and improve efficiency through various metalization techniques [14][15]. - The transition from silver to copper is driven by the need to lower costs, as copper has a similar conductivity to silver but is significantly cheaper [22]. 2. Impact of Copper Paste on Cost Reduction - The report indicates that metalization costs are becoming a larger portion of the total battery cost, reaching approximately 30%. This makes it a primary target for cost reduction efforts [31]. - The copper alternative can significantly lower metalization costs compared to silver paste, with projections showing substantial savings in both TOPCON and BC cell applications [35][40]. 3. Industrialization Challenges and Solutions for Copper Paste - The report discusses the challenges of copper oxidation and migration during the manufacturing process, which can affect the performance of photovoltaic cells. Solutions include protective coatings and the use of seed layers to prevent copper diffusion into silicon [23][27]. - The anticipated industrialization of copper paste is expected to enhance profitability for paste manufacturers, as the shift to copper will likely increase processing fees compared to traditional silver paste [45]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The transition to copper paste is expected to alter the competitive landscape among paste manufacturers, with companies needing to invest in new technologies and processes to maintain their market positions [49]. - The report notes that companies are already beginning to develop copper powder capabilities to enhance their competitiveness in the copper paste market [51].