破晓·新启——电新行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 2025 年国内乘用车市场预计增速 40%，欧洲动力市场增速约 20%，储 能市场海外持续爆发，总体需求增速近 30%，锂电池板块整体增长格局 良好，宁德时代表现突出。 2025 年国内海上风电项目开工量达 10GW 左右，储备项目超 30GW， 保障高增速；海外市场每年稳定在 4-5GW 左右，预计 2026 年达 10GW 级别，风电国内外市场需求持续增加。 储能行业 2025 年下半年预期良好，新技术进展和政策支持有望解决供 需过剩问题；1-5 月电表数据显示 32GWh，上半年总量或达四五十 GWh，招标增速翻倍，项目建设经济性信心较高。 业绩兑现公司如大金、新强联受关注，困境反转或底部反转预期的天顺、 海力交易表现良好，陆风盈利改善逻辑值得期待，海丰业绩强劲，推荐 权重较高。 2025 年上半年电气设备行业表现平稳，特斯拉交单节奏走弱影响预期， 下半年加速推进剩余直流和交流招标，数字化增量较大，AI 政策配套及 建议交易需求推动增长。 Q&A 2025 年电信行业的中期策略是什么？ 2025 年电信行业的中期策略可以总结为三 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The supplementary legal opinion addresses the inquiries raised by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding Suzhou Goodwill Electronics Co., Ltd's application for a specific stock issuance, highlighting the company's financial performance and challenges in its semiconductor and photovoltaic silver paste businesses [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company's main business revenue for the reporting periods was 3.26 billion, 4.07 billion, with growth rates of 17.21%, 14.36%, 10.23%, and 10.75% respectively [3]. - The gross profit margins for the semiconductor and photovoltaic silver paste businesses have shown a downward trend, primarily due to significant increases in key raw material prices, particularly silver powder [3][4]. - The gross profit margins for integrated circuit packaging and testing products were recorded at 8.01%, -2.57%, -12.55%, and -0.19%, indicating a continuous negative trend since 2023 [3]. Customer Concentration - The sales amount to the top five customers accounted for 59.90%, 62.13%, 71.44%, and 66.93% of total sales revenue during the reporting periods [4]. - The company primarily employs a direct sales model supplemented by distribution, with distribution revenue contributing 14.02%, 11.70%, 8.47%, and 11.19% to total revenue [4]. Accounts Receivable and Bad Debt Provisions - The accounts receivable balances at the end of each reporting period were 749.03 million, 1.03 billion, 1.12 billion, and 973.91 million, with bad debt provisions of 30.13 million, 28.57 million, 80.41 million, and 78.45 million respectively [4][12]. - The increase in bad debt provisions in 2024 was primarily due to the company's consideration of debt restructuring agreements with major customers, leading to a provision rate of 13.85% for certain accounts [4][12]. Inventory and Prepayments - The company's inventory values at the end of each reporting period were 384.97 million, 473.14 million, and 471.76 million [4]. - The prepayment amounts at the end of each reporting period were 75.55 million, 78.51 million, and 79.99 million [4]. Fixed Assets and Utilization - The book value of fixed assets at the most recent reporting period was 666.61 million, with impairment provisions of 16.76 million [5]. - The company experienced underutilization of production capacity in its semiconductor discrete devices, integrated circuit packaging, and photovoltaic silver paste products, with some years showing utilization rates below 70% [5]. Research and Development Expenses - The company reported period expenses of 284.69 million, 146.09 million, 200.69 million, and 32.81 million, with financial expenses of -7.72 million, 10.28 million, 10.53 million, and 5.62 million [5]. - Sales expenses were primarily composed of salaries and promotional expenses, with promotional expenses recorded at 45.59 million, 52.41 million, 21.32 million, and 3.42 million [5]. Industry Context - The company operates in the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors, facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and increased competition [10]. - The photovoltaic industry is particularly affected by external factors such as tariffs and sourcing policies, impacting the company's customer base and financial stability [10].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Guder Electronic Co., Ltd. is planning to raise funds through a specific issuance of A-shares to finance projects related to solar electronic paste production, small signal product packaging and testing, and the establishment of an innovation research institute, while also supplementing working capital [1][2][3]. Fundraising Projects - The funds raised will primarily be allocated to the following projects: 1. Annual production of 500 tons of solar electronic paste at Suzhou Jingyin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. 2. Small signal product packaging and testing project 3. Establishment of the Guder (Suzhou) Innovation Research Institute 4. Supplementing working capital [3][18]. Industry Risks - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing cyclical fluctuations, with 2023 sales reaching 1,669.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 2.2%, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly a decade [3][5]. - The sales of semiconductor discrete devices reached 441.97 billion yuan, also reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase, while the integrated circuit packaging and testing sector saw a negative growth for the first time in ten years, with sales of 293.22 billion yuan [3][5]. - The company's semiconductor business revenue for 2023 was 1.002 billion yuan, a decline of 20.88% year-on-year [3][5]. Market Competition - The semiconductor discrete device and integrated circuit packaging and testing sectors in China are highly competitive, with major international players holding significant market shares. The domestic market is the largest globally, attracting more competitors, which may lead to increased market competition [6][7]. Solar Paste Industry - The solar paste industry is closely tied to the fluctuations in the photovoltaic sector, which has seen rapid growth due to supportive policies since 2014. However, international trade policies and market dynamics can adversely affect the demand for solar paste products [5][7]. - The company has established a leading market position in the solar paste industry, but increasing competition may impact its market share and profitability [7][9]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 3,268.20 million yuan, 4,087.35 million yuan, and a declining profit trend over the reporting periods. The comprehensive gross margin has decreased due to cyclical fluctuations in the semiconductor and solar paste industries, changes in market supply and demand, and increased R&D investments [14][12]. - The company’s inventory and accounts receivable have shown significant balances, indicating potential risks related to inventory management and collection of receivables, which could adversely affect financial performance [12][13].

正券 CGS 行业点评报告 ·电力设备及新能源 破除光伏内卷式竞争,政策供给侧改 2025年7月2日 光伏 推荐 维持 分析师 曾韬 ☎：010-8092-7653 网：zengtao_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525030001 黄林 ☎: 010-8092-7627 网: huanglin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070004 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源：ifind，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1、【银河电新】风光储电行业_2025 年中期投资策 略：结构分化,聚焦新技术与非美出口 0618 2、【银河电新】全国两会前瞻_新能源新动能迈向新 周期, AI+引领浪潮 250225 3、【银河电新】中央经济工作会议解读_整治"内卷 式"竞争,新能源新动能迈向新周期 241213 4、【银河电新】行业点评_新能源底部向上可期 240929 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025-7-2 0 事件:今日太阳能指数 CI005286.CI 上涨 4.1%,其中大全能源涨幅达 15.7% ...

伏板块更新及行情展望 20250702 光伏行业在当前市场表现非常好。电气机械及器材制造业产能利用率偏低，而 光伏作为其细分领域之一，其产能利用率尤其低。因此光伏行业供给侧改革的 摘要 国家发改委强调推进现代化产业体系建设，破除内卷竞争，营造公平有 序市场环境，预示着光伏行业供给侧改革的政策支持，可能推动落后产 能退出和市场要素统一。 光伏行业产能利用率偏低，尤其硅料环节，供给侧改革迫切。当前光伏 板块估值处于历史低位，具备预期交易价值，硅料价格稳定对下游至关 重要，建议关注硅料和逆变器板块。 硅料和玻璃环节上涨行情受政策预期驱动，如玻璃减产 30%和硅料收购 落后产能计划。尽管 7 月硅料排产接近供需平衡，上层意志对价格指导 作用显著。 硅料供给侧改革分两步：并购落后产能并退出，头部企业控制产能利用 率，实现供需紧平衡。需关注政策进展和收购计划，以及后续严格控产 以实现价格回升。 当前硅料环节投资机会显著，大全、通威等企业涨幅明显，但政策细节 未落地，建议等待回调。下半年供给侧改革将集中在硅料环节，预计价 格将逐步回升至合理盈利水平。 Q&A 近期中国政府在反不正当竞争和防止内卷方面有哪些重要政策出台？ 2 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 博迁新材 Company Overview - 博迁新材 is the only domestic company mastering PVD technology for powder production, benefiting from the recovery of AI servers and high-end consumer electronics, leading to a steady growth in high-end electronic powder demand, expected to reach around 250 million yuan [2][5][30] Key Industry Insights - The global MLCC market size is estimated between 100 billion to 110 billion USD, with a recovery of single-digit growth expected in 2024 and 2025 due to increased demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles [2][16][18] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a trend of reducing silver usage, with copper paste technology accelerating as a substitute, expected to reach an application volume of 30GW to 40GW in the coming year [2][8][32] Core Business Performance - The core business of 博迁新材 is nickel powder, contributing 70% to 80% of revenue, primarily used in MLCC for consumer and automotive electronics. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 250 million yuan with a net profit of nearly 50 million yuan, a 200% year-on-year increase, and a gross margin recovery to 32% [2][13][14][30] - The copper powder market for BC battery scenarios is expected to contribute a market space of over 700 tons by 2026, with significant growth potential [2][6] Financial Projections - The electronic powder business is expected to maintain stable profit levels, projected to reach around 250 million yuan [2][5] - The copper powder business is anticipated to see large-scale introduction in 2026, with expected shipments exceeding 1,000 tons and a gross margin of over 30% [4][31] - Overall, the company expects to achieve around 500 million yuan in revenue by 2026, with a market capitalization potentially reaching 15 billion yuan based on a 30x P/E ratio [4][32] Competitive Advantages - 博迁新材's competitive edge in the electronic powder sector lies in its strong technical capabilities, market position, brand accumulation, and continuous innovation, particularly through its unique PVD process [3][24] - The company has established a strong position in the copper powder market by collaborating with major clients in the PV sector, successfully developing silver-coated copper powder and HCD copper paste with initial shipments [2][9][28] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for MLCCs is significantly driven by AI servers, with usage per server increasing dramatically compared to traditional servers [17] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend in the powder supply chain, particularly in the PV sector [2][9] Key Milestones - Important milestones include the completion of technology validation by major clients in Q3 2025 and the large-scale introduction of copper paste in BC batteries in Q1 2026, which are expected to catalyze further growth [4][33]

中金研究 Beta层面，行业需求较弱但股价下行风险有限，若未来行业预期修复、我们认为beta或有30%-50%级别的机会；Alpha层面，我们建议关注具备功率差 拉大的龙头组件、铜浆等新技术、硅料等弹性环节的供给端政策等。 点击小程序查看报告原文 组件功率差拉大，资金技术领先的企业市占提升，二三线加速退出： 此次SNEC展会，龙头公司普遍推出680W左右的高功率组件（182x210版型），组件 效率来到了24.8%左右。我们认为，技术不是阻碍、而是是否有足够资金进行资本开支，当功率差拉大20-30W后，溢价+成本摊薄，龙头公司获得超额利 润，而低开工率、无力升级迭代的企业将不具备竞争力。 铜浆产业趋势进一步强化： 银价上升、行业亏损，以及龙头公司发力提效降本，促进了铜在主流电池路线上的开发，同时HJT银包铜早期的铺垫带来客户 接受度的提升，贱金属化产业趋势加速。根据龙头公司的规划，25年下半年至26年上半年不止一种贱金属化方案将量产。 供给侧改革，行业仍在寻求可落地的方案： 目前供给侧改革仍以销售端的行业自律为主，同时对产能宣布了一定的引导性政策，但一刀切的强制性政策 尚未推出，相关政策需要考虑的因素包括但不 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while continuing quantitative tightening, which aligns with market expectations [2][3] - Economic forecasts indicate a downward adjustment in growth expectations for 2025 and 2026, with unemployment rates slightly increased, reflecting concerns over "stagflation" [3][4] - The dollar index is expected to decline further in 2025 due to tariffs, economic slowdown, and strengthening of alternative assets, stabilizing below 100 for the year [7] Home Appliances Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from long-term stability, with white goods focusing on performance consistency and increasing dividend rates, while black goods present opportunities due to enhanced global competitiveness [9][12] - The industry has seen a significant increase in the SW home appliance index, with respective gains of 3.8%, 25.4%, and 1.93% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 YTD [9][10] - The outlook for the home appliance market is cautious due to potential demand exhaustion and intensified competition, particularly in the air conditioning segment [10][11] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently facing significant supply and demand pressures, with low profitability in the petrochemical sector, and a need for structural opportunities as the market stabilizes [15][16] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to range between $60-$70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, which may alleviate some cost pressures for the industry [15] - Key investment themes include domestic demand stimulation, supply-side constraints, and the domestic substitution of new materials [15][16] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on new technologies and non-US exports, particularly in the wind and solar energy segments [18][19] - The demand for energy storage is expected to shift from policy-driven to market-driven profitability, with significant growth potential in domestic and overseas markets [20][21] - The wind energy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by increased installations and demand from emerging markets [19][20] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies, particularly in state-owned enterprises, technology, and consumer sectors, which are expected to yield stable excess returns [24][25] - The development of public funds is expected to favor long-term and passive investment strategies, with a focus on ETFs and sector-specific funds [25][26] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns through quantitative stock selection strategies based on fundamental factors [24][26]

耀看光伏第8期—— SNEC2025亮点回顾 长江证券研究所电力设备及新能源研究小组 2025-06-16 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 王耀 分析师 任佳惠 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 目 录 01 总体：规模基本持平，热度降低企业间分化 02 政策：产业领袖公开发言，预期进一步强化 03 新技术：BC关注度较高，其余路线稳步推进 04 辅材&设备：BC和TOPCon改造并进，助力提效 05 逆变器：工商储成C位，大储继续迭代 %% research.95579.com 3 01 总体： 规模基本持平，热度降低企业间分化 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 总体 ...