行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨，同比+39%，环 比+20%，占比17%；12月从尼日利亚进口量8万吨，同比+59%，环比-13%， 占比10%；12月从南非进口量10.9万吨，同比+13%，环比增加约10.9万吨。 2025年锂辉石总进口量约772.67万吨，同比+10%。 碳酸锂：2025年12月碳酸锂进口量2.40万吨，环比+8.77%，同比 -14.43%；2025年碳酸锂总进口量24.30万吨，同比+3.41%，增速较2024 年下滑约44.6pct。2025年12月，碳酸锂出口量911.9吨，环比+20.11%， 同比+45.97%；2025年碳酸锂总出口量5289.6吨，同比+38.17%。 氢氧化锂：2025年12月氢氧化锂进口 ...

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 究 报 告 锂价：12月，电池级碳酸锂均价9.99万元/吨，环比+15%，同比+30%。 截至2026年1月26日，电池级碳酸锂价格为17.85万元/吨，较年初上涨50%， 较2025年最低点上涨192%。我们判断，当前仍处于下游淡季，锂价或将 维持高位震荡，节后下游进入产销旺季，锂价或重新开启新一轮上涨趋势。 投资建议：当前需求淡季不淡，带动去库，基本面向好驱动锂价持续 上涨至高位震荡，农历春节后下游有望进入旺季，积极备库的背景下供需 将维持紧张格局，锂价有望进一步上涨。建议关注大中、国城、盛新、雅 化、天华、永兴、藏格、天齐、赣锋等。 风险提示 下游需求低于预期；供给端超预期释放产能。 强于大市（维持评级） 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨， ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 15, with the Hang Seng Index down 1% at 25,718.14 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.34% at 5,562.67 points, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index down 1.09% at 8,980.13 points [1] - Major tech stocks declined, including Alibaba down 2.14%, Tencent down 1.62%, and JD.com down 0.61% [1] - The innovative drug sector saw several stocks open lower, with Genscript Biotech down 5.92% and Zai Lab down 3.48% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks collectively fell, with Everbright Securities dropping over 1% [1] - The automotive sector also experienced declines, with Li Auto down over 2% and XPeng down nearly 2% [1] - However, three-child policy concept stocks and photovoltaic stocks mostly rose, with star stock Jinxin Fertility rising about 3% [1] Company News - China Merchants Energy (01138.HK) signed shipbuilding contracts for one ethylene ship and eighteen oil tankers, totaling RMB 7.882 billion [2] - ZhongAn Online (06060.HK) reported cumulative original insurance premium income of approximately RMB 32.904 billion for the first eleven months [3] - R&F Properties (02777.HK) achieved total sales revenue of approximately RMB 12.7 billion in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 24.63% [4] - Yida China (03639.HK) reported contract sales amounting to approximately RMB 681 million in the first eleven months, a year-on-year decrease of 23.22% [5] - Bole Technology (02592.HK) successfully held a meeting after the second phase of clinical trials for CBT-004 [6] - Junshi Biosciences (02696.HK) received acceptance for its marketing application for Hansizhuang® in combination with chemotherapy for gastric cancer [6] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) received approval for a new indication for its drug, Donyin® (liposomal irinotecan injection), for first-line treatment in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients [6] - Biyuan (00926.HK) increased its investment in ERX to maintain a 3% stake to support innovative research and development of non-GLP-1 weight loss therapies [7] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) received approval for clinical trials for HRS-1780 tablets [8] - AVIC Industry (02357.HK) plans to acquire a 59.1816% partnership interest in Hangtou Yuhua for a consideration of RMB 202 million [9] - China Environmental Resources (01130.HK) intends to acquire 90% equity in Sichuan Yuanlai Shun Recycling Resources Co., Ltd. for RMB 9 million [10] - AVIC Industry (02357.HK) proposed to implement full circulation of H-shares [11] - Yabo Technology Holdings (08279.HK) signed a framework agreement with Alipay (Hangzhou) [12] Institutional Insights - Guosen Securities indicated that the short-term adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market opens up space for a market rise in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding RMB 110 billion in November [13] - CITIC Securities noted strong performance in gold and silver, while other risk assets were weak, predicting a segmented market for precious metals in 2025 [13] - CITIC Securities also emphasized the importance of resource self-sufficiency in the lithium industry, highlighting the need for low-cost quality resources to navigate market cycles [14]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on December 10, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.26 points to 25,435.49 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.33 points, a decrease of 0.04% to 5,552.35 points [1] - The China Enterprises Index increased by 0.46 points, up 0.01% to 8,936.87 points, and the Red Chip Index rose by 14.33 points, up 0.35% to 4,144.82 points [1] - Notable movements included Meituan rising over 1%, NetEase dropping over 1%, and China Silver Group increasing over 7% [1] Company News - Datang New Energy (01798.HK) reported a cumulative power generation of approximately 31.6521 million megawatt-hours in the first 11 months, an increase of 10.58% year-on-year [2] - Jiangshan Holdings (00295.HK) reported a total solar power generation of approximately 279.78 thousand megawatt-hours in the first 11 months, a decrease of 5.61% year-on-year [3] - New City Development (01030.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 17.917 billion yuan in the first 11 months, a decrease of 51.53% year-on-year [4] - Longfor Group (00960.HK) achieved a total contract sales amount of 59.39 billion yuan in the first 11 months [5] - CIFI Holdings Group (00884.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 15.1 billion yuan in the first 11 months [6] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) announced that by November 30, 2025, the total premium income is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan [7] Media and Entertainment - Lingmeng Film and Television (09857.HK) plans to repurchase shares not exceeding 10% of the issued shares based on the repurchase authorization [8] - Yingxing Holdings (01440.HK) entered into a comprehensive merchandise licensing agreement with Netflix CPX, LLC for the use of "Stranger Things" intellectual property [8] Strategic Partnerships - Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Holdings (01396.HK) announced a strategic cooperation agreement between its subsidiary Tiandun Data and Huagong Technology (000988.SZ) to integrate products and services into high-performance, stable, and reliable intelligent computing solutions [8] Clinical Trials - QX030N from Qianxin Biotechnology (02509.HK) received ethical approval for Phase I clinical trials in Australia and received a milestone payment of 5 million USD [9] - Fuhong Hanlin (02696.HK) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for clinical trial applications for HLX22 and HLX87 for breast cancer treatment [9] Capital Restructuring - China Supply Chain Industry (03708.HK) expressed intentions to acquire shares of Huamao International Barter Exchange and suggested implementing capital restructuring [9][11] Market Analysis - CICC noted that the recent weakness of the Hong Kong stock market compared to other regions can be attributed to several factors, including a continuous decline in southbound capital and concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the central bank [12] - CICC emphasized that the current market conditions are a result of a combination of a declining credit cycle, liquidity pressure, and a mismatch between fundamentals and expectations [12] - CITIC Securities highlighted investment opportunities in the lithium industry, focusing on resource self-sufficiency and companies with significant production growth in the coming years [13]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries, known as the "Lithium King," reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 84.41 million yuan compared to a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year, despite a decline in revenue and lithium product prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84.41 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 132,000 yuan, compared to a loss of 52.21 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Product Pricing and Sales - The mainstream spot prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide ranged from 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, with an overall downward trend despite a slight increase in January [1] - Revenue from lithium ore was 2.38 billion yuan, down 7.43% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.23%, a decrease of 11.41 percentage points [2] - Revenue from lithium compounds and derivatives was 2.442 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.58%, with a gross margin of 25.58%, down 16.98 percentage points [2] Group 3: Production and Operations - The Greenbushes lithium spodumene mine, which the company holds mining rights to, had a total ore extraction of 2.6941 million tons in the reporting period, with a chemical-grade ore extraction of 2.5872 million tons and an average grade of 1.89% [2] - The company has a total lithium concentrate production capacity of approximately 1.62 million tons per year, with a planned capacity of 2.14 million tons per year [2] - The first phase of the lithium hydroxide project in Kwinana is currently ramping up, achieving an operational rate of 50% or more, while the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang project has been completed and is in trial operation [3] Group 4: Market Conditions - Starting from July 2025, macro policies have released positive signals, and lithium salt prices have rebounded due to supply-side disturbances caused by compliance issues in some regions [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [7][13]. Core Insights - The P1000 project has shown significant benefits in Q2 2025, with production increasing by 77% quarter-on-quarter, while costs decreased by 7.7% [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, the production of lithium concentrate was 221,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77% due to the completion of the P1000 expansion [3]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was $599 per ton, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous quarter [4]. - The FOB cost in Q2 2025 was $397 per ton, down 7.7% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to increased production and improved cost efficiency from the P1000 project [5]. - The actual production for FY 2025 was 755,000 tons, exceeding guidance, while the guidance for FY 2026 is set at 820,000 to 870,000 tons [6]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q2 2025, the production of lithium concentrate was 221,000 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77% due to the P1000 expansion [3]. - Sales of SC5.1 concentrate reached 216,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 72.2% [3]. Pricing and Costs - The selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was $599 per ton, down 17% from the previous quarter [4]. - The FOB cost was $397 per ton, a decrease of 7.7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased production and cost efficiency [5]. Project Progress - The Australian midstream demonstration plant project is on track for completion by Q4 2025 [6]. - The Brazil Colina project is progressing with directional exploration, with results expected in Q2 2026 [6]. - The joint venture with POSCO produced 3,037 tons of lithium hydroxide in Q2 2025, with ongoing certification processes for additional production lines [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongjin, Yongxing, Ganfeng, Tianqi, Yahua, Guocheng, Shengxin, Jiangte, and Rongjie, anticipating price increases driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has experienced a slight decline, reflecting market fluctuations while the company continues to expand its operations in the renewable energy sector [1] Company Overview - Ganfeng Lithium is engaged in lithium resource development, deep processing of lithium products, and lithium battery manufacturing, covering the entire lithium industry chain from upstream to downstream [1] - The company's products are widely used in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics [1] Recent Developments - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Battery Technology Co., Ltd., has invested in Guangdong Magde Technology Co., Ltd., holding a 29% stake with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, focusing on solar power technology services and energy storage technology [1] - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Yichu Energy Technology Co., Ltd., has established HeBang New Energy Co., Ltd. in Shenzhen with a registered capital of 155 million yuan, concentrating on emerging energy technology research and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [1] Financial Performance - On August 4, Ganfeng Lithium's stock closed at 35.91 yuan, down 0.27 yuan or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 266,853 hands and a transaction amount of 952 million yuan, showing a fluctuation of 2.21% [1] - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 11.34 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 449 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [103]. Core Insights - In June, lithium supply and demand were basically balanced, with supply at 10.5 million tons and demand at 10.6 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.6% and 0.1% respectively compared to the previous month [4][88]. - The cumulative surplus in the lithium market for the first half of 2025 was 33,000 tons, with total supply of 624,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, and total demand of 591,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [88]. - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices in July, driven by supply-side disruptions and seasonal demand increases expected in September [5][91]. Supply Side Summary - In June, lithium ore imports totaled 396,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 18.1%, with Australia accounting for 256,000 tons, down 26.9% year-on-year [2][12]. - The total lithium salt supply for the first half of 2025 was 624,500 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34% [35]. - The apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in June was 91,000 tons, with domestic production at 74,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 11.7% [3][20]. Demand Side Summary - The apparent consumption of lithium hydroxide in June was 15,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 41.8% [26][27]. - The demand for lithium salts from power batteries increased by 59.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total demand reaching 393,900 tons [79]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of 2025 increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year, respectively [80]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongmin, Yongxing, Ganfeng, Tianqi, Yahua, Guocheng, Shengxin, Jiangte, and Rongjie, anticipating price increases driven by production adjustments and seasonal demand [5][97].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - In May, the lithium supply and demand were basically balanced, with an overall slowdown in inventory accumulation across the industry chain [3][5] - The report highlights that the short-term outlook for lithium carbonate prices is expected to return to fundamental trends, with potential price increases, while the long-term supply-demand imbalance has not yet reversed [5][107] Supply Side Summary - In May, lithium ore imports totaled 484,000 tons, down 4.3% year-on-year but up 5.9% month-on-month, with Australia accounting for 371,000 tons [3][14] - The cumulative lithium supply from January to May 2025 increased by 40.2% year-on-year, reaching 519,700 tons [42][97] - The supply of lithium salts in May was 105,500 tons LCE, reflecting an 8.9% month-on-month increase [42] Demand Side Summary - In May, the consumption of lithium carbonate was 91,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40% for the first five months of 2025 [23][24] - The demand for lithium salts from January to May 2025 increased by 39.7% year-on-year, totaling 485,700 tons LCE [72][97] - The demand for lithium in the power battery sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of 61.6% during the same period [88] Price Trends - As of June, lithium carbonate prices are experiencing fluctuations, with market supply increasing and inventory trends showing accumulation, leading to continued price pressure [101][103] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 61,200 CNY per ton, down 33% year-on-year [101] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strategic focus on stocks such as Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Yongxing Materials, and others for potential investment opportunities [5][107]