Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the zinc concentrate processing fee has been rising due to the increase in zinc concentrate supply at home and abroad. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined after rising, showing a divergence from the import fee. In the fourth quarter, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall, while the import fee may be raised. The refined zinc output is expected to remain high, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price (1) Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - The zinc concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) is the fee paid by mineral producers or traders to smelters for processing zinc concentrate into refined zinc. Overseas and domestic markets have different ways of determining the processing fee. The rise and fall of the processing fee are affected by factors such as zinc ore production supply, smelting demand, the ratio of Shanghai and London zinc prices, and the profits of mines and smelters [5][6]. (2) The Relationship between Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price - In the long - term, there is a significant negative relationship between the zinc concentrate processing fee and the zinc price. The change in the processing fee can have an important impact on the zinc price trend [7][10]. II. Analysis of the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee (1) Significant Increase in Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - In 2025, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have increased significantly. The reasons are the supply of zinc concentrate turning from tight to relatively loose due to the resumption of production and new capacity release of mines at home and abroad, and the sufficient raw material inventory and strong price - holding sentiment of domestic smelters [11][13][16]. (2) Divergence between Domestic and Imported Zinc Ore Processing Fees - Since the second half of the year, the domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have shown a significant divergence. The import fee has continued to rise, while the domestic fee has fallen after reaching a high. The reasons are the import loss of zinc concentrate, the preference for domestic zinc ore by smelters, and the expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production in the fourth quarter [18][21]. (3) Outlook on the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee in the Fourth Quarter - In the fourth quarter, the supply of zinc concentrate is expected to remain loose, but the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall due to the reduction of supply from northern mines and the winter storage demand of smelters. The import processing fee may be under pressure to adjust [22]. III. Outlook on the Zinc Price Trend in the Fourth Quarter - Currently, the domestic and overseas zinc markets are divided. Domestic refined zinc output is high, and the inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak domestic zinc price. In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc output is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [23][24][26].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market Performance: Shanghai zinc futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. ZN2510 closed at 22,280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was - 5. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, with some local quotes slightly falling. SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices dropped due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profit, it remained at a relatively high level. September saw more smelter overhauls and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material price hikes and tight supply, with expected monthly output down 1 - 2 tons to around 600,000 tons. Supply remained generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, leading to a month - on - month increase in the primary consumption sector's开工. However, the improvement in consumption was slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace. There was a divergence between the strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with concerns about overseas refined zinc supply causing a spot premium (0 - 3B41.33). Given the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and no sign of a de - stocking inflection point, the market maintained a range - bound pattern. The market generally expected a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to be announced early Thursday, and attention was on Powell's speech for guidance on the path of interest rate cuts for the year [7] Group 3: Industry News - Zinc Price and Transaction Information: On September 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,175 - 22,280 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand was 22,285 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,105 - 22,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v at a 20 - yuan/ton discount, Huize at a 50 - 60 - yuan/ton premium, and high - end brand Double - swallow at a 90 - 100 - yuan/ton premium. In different regions, the prices and quotes relative to the contracts varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,175 - 22,260 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2510 contract; in Tianjin, 0 zinc was at 22,110 - 22,270 yuan/ton, with various discounts to the 2510 contract; in Guangdong, 0 zinc was at 22,090 - 22,230 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2511 contract and a discount to Shanghai spot prices, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price spread widened [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department provided data on the two - market zinc price trends, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [7][10][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak, and the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared. It maintains a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2510, it closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.22%, with shrinking volume and reduced positions. The positions decreased by 7,012 lots to 84,991 lots, and the 10 - 11 spread was - 10. SHFE zinc 2511 closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.25%, with a position of 87,709 lots, a decrease of 4,294 lots. SHFE zinc 2512 closed at 22,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.22%, with a position of 29,089 lots, a decrease of 54,220 lots [7] - **Supply - Side Situation**: The upward momentum of domestic processing fees is insufficient, and local quotes have shown a narrow decline but have not formed a downward trend. The SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrates is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index has increased by 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. The price of by - product sulfuric acid has fallen due to supply recovery. Although the comprehensive profit has shrunk, it is still at a relatively high level. In September, more smelters are under maintenance, and some secondary zinc enterprises face rising raw material prices and tight supply. It is expected that the monthly output will decline by 1 - 20,000 tons, with the monthly output expected to be around 600,000 tons, and the supply side generally remains loose [7] - **Demand - Side Situation**: After the military parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the start - up of the primary consumption field has increased month - on - month. However, the improvement in the consumption end is slowly transmitted upwards. Social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, but the accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The inventory performance at home and abroad is differentiated. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 1,175 tons to 48,975 tons. Concerns about overseas refined zinc supply have caused a spot premium, with 0 - 3B at 26.76 [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,225 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,335 - 22,435 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,155 - 22,235 yuan/ton [8] - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,235 - 22,305 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 22,155 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference has narrowed [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not provided with specific data content in the summary requirements here

Group 1: Zinc Price Trends - Zinc prices have been under pressure due to weakened market demand and easing supply constraints from zinc mines [1][2] - The fluctuation of U.S. tariff policies has led to a significant drop in zinc prices, reaching a near one-year low [1][3] - The macroeconomic factors influencing zinc prices include U.S. tariff policies and the potential slowdown of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas mining operations are expected to increase production, while domestic zinc mines experienced a seasonal reduction of 10.04% in Q1 [2] - Zinc concentrate port inventories are projected to remain above 300,000 tons, indicating a loose supply environment [2] - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are anticipated to rise due to increased ore supply, which will enhance smelting profits [2][3] Group 3: Demand Factors - The construction sector has shown weak performance, with cement and asphalt plant operating rates below expectations [3][4] - The automotive sector has exceeded market expectations, but overall demand for zinc remains weak due to trade policy uncertainties [3][4] - The domestic market's ability to support zinc prices is limited, particularly with export restrictions impacting effective demand [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The zinc market is expected to transition towards a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with a downward trend in zinc prices anticipated in the medium term [5]