锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 手 持仓量 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2025 2026 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 吨 国内精炼锡产量（SMM） 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, supply-demand imbalances, and market sentiment, with expectations for a potential recovery post-holiday [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The primary driver of the tin price drop is the strong US dollar and significant declines in US stock markets, which have increased risk aversion in commodity markets [1]. - The dollar index rose to 97.85, with delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and marginal improvements in the US economy boosting bullish sentiment towards dollar assets [1]. - Domestic market conditions ahead of the Spring Festival led to reduced trading activity, with futures prices dropping by 6.15%, impacting the spot market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite a long-term balance in tin supply and demand, a short-term vacuum has emerged, contributing to the price decline, with both supply and demand showing weakness [2]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters have reduced production for maintenance, leading to decreased liquidity in the spot market, while traders are selling at lower prices [2]. - Demand from downstream sectors, such as electronics and photovoltaics, has stalled due to holiday shutdowns, resulting in a lack of core demand support for tin prices [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The tin industry, driven by emerging demands from AI and photovoltaics, remains in a high-demand state, but short-term pressures are evident due to increased competition among industry players [2]. - The upstream supply remains rigid, but miners are adjusting prices to recover funds, weakening cost support for tin prices [2]. - The industry is currently experiencing a "no demand + high selling pressure" scenario, leading to a short-term adjustment phase [2]. Group 4: Price Forecast and Investment Strategy - Following the recent price drop, tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 350,000 and 360,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with a potential for recovery post-holiday as downstream operations resume [3]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, maintaining light positions and avoiding aggressive buying before the holiday, while focusing on key recovery indicators post-holiday [3]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a recovery in tin prices driven by downstream replenishment and macroeconomic improvements [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 365,000 - 395,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, tin prices soared to a record high of 443,380 yuan/ton driven by inventory depletion. The overall fundamentals were strong, with tight supply at the mine end and relatively insensitive terminal demand. However, this week, the fundamentals have loosened, with significant inventory accumulation. Considering the impact of Sino-US strategic stockpiling policies, tin prices may fluctuate widely next week [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was -$68/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 150 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums showed a rebound [9][10][15] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from C structure to B structure [18][19] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic social inventory increased by 2,647 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,033 tons. LME inventory also increased, and the canceled warrant ratio rebounded to 3.54% [24][27][32] - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 4,681,950,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [36] - **Transaction and Position**: This week, Shanghai tin trading volume and open interest decreased. LME tin trading volume rebounded, and open interest increased. The Shanghai tin position - to - inventory ratio declined [38][44][49] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In October 2025, tin concentrate production was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan rose to 8,000 yuan/ton. The tin ore import profit - and - loss level rebounded [53][54] - **Smelting**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot production was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.38%, a slight rebound from last week [59][61] - **Import**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,195 tons, exports were 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 6,187 yuan/ton [63][65] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,066 tons [73] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August rebounded slightly [75] - **End - User Consumption**: In November 2025, the end - user production performance was good, with the monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all rebounding. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also rebounded month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in sync with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai Tin will adjust at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the battle at the 350,000 mark. If it falls below the MA10, it may be under pressure again [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. The closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US labor market shows no obvious pressure. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000. The US Treasury yield rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high [5] - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials, most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will be no year - on - year increase. The export volume of Indonesia in November increased significantly, alleviating concerns about the limited supply from Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching to open, increasing import pressure [5] - **Demand**: Recently, downstream enterprises purchased on demand. Inventories continued to decline, and the spot premium was 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories remained stable, and the spot premium increased [5] - **Technical Aspect**: The position decreased and the price adjusted, and the long - position sentiment declined [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 352,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 25,230 yuan/ton or 7.7% from December 31. As of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME Tin was 43,750 US dollars/ton, a rise of 3,280 US dollars/ton or 8.1% from January 2. As of December 31, 2025, the basis of Shanghai Tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 0 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.54, an increase of 0.09 from December 31. As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.07, a decrease of 0.02 from December 31 [15] - **Position Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the position of Shanghai Tin was 105,695 lots, an increase of 17,907 lots or 20.4% from December 31. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -3,764 lots, a decrease of 2,393 lots from December 22, 2025 [19] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. On January 9, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 337,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.54% from January 8, 2026. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 341,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.53% from January 8, 2026 [31] - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of January 8, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 2,266.55 yuan/ton, a rise of 7,509.43 yuan/ton from January 2, 2026. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [36][37] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 8, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons or 0.28% from December 31. As of January 9, 2026, the total tin inventory was 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons or 12.61% from last week. As of January 9, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 6,429 tons, a decrease of 1,013 tons or 13.61% from December 31 [40] 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On January 8, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,436.1, a rise of 352.97 or 4.98% from December 31. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431.84 billion pieces, an increase of 36.57072 billion pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [43][44] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. As of November 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [47]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing volatility with prices showing a "roller coaster" trend due to weak seasonal demand, high inventory pressure, and year-end risk aversion among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 opened at 327,910 CNY/ton, peaked at 331,950 CNY/ton, and closed at 322,920 CNY/ton, down 1,460 CNY, a decrease of 0.45% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract was 297,836 lots, with open interest at 37,828 lots, a decrease of 5,841 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot tin price in the Yangtze River market reported an average of 325,900 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,300 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a structural balance, with Myanmar's resumption of production and Indonesia's export recovery providing marginal increases, while domestic smelting is constrained by raw material shortages and low processing fees [2]. - Demand is weak in traditional sectors like consumer electronics, while emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and AI servers show resilience, although high prices are suppressing purchasing willingness [2]. - The divergence between spot prices rising slightly due to some merchants replenishing stock and significant declines in futures prices indicates a deep market struggle between short-term weaknesses and long-term expectations [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term, tin prices are expected to continue a volatile adjustment trend, primarily pressured by inventory accumulation and year-end capital withdrawal, but cost and long-term logic will limit downside potential [3]. - In the medium to long term, after the seasonal downturn ends and inventory shows a clear reduction, the focus will shift back to supply constraints and growth in emerging demand, potentially leading to a stronger price trend driven by fundamentals [3]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious, maintaining light positions and observing the speed of inventory reduction and recovery of downstream orders post-holiday [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tin market has no prominent contradictions, and the price is in the range of 267,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3] - In the short term, tin prices may rebound, but from a fundamental perspective, opportunities to short tin at high levels should be considered [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -$124/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 400 yuan/ton [9] - Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from structure B to structure C [18] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 936 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 844 tons [24] - LME inventory decreased by 115 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 4.57% [29] 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled capital for Shanghai tin was 1,498,340,000 yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [34] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin declined slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [36] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin declined slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [42] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined slightly [47] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In May 2025, the tin concentrate output was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%; in July 2025, the import volume was 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 32.32% [51] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [52] 3.2.2 Smelting - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [57] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 29%, a slight increase from last week [59] 3.2.3 Import - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net import was 393 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 16,622 yuan/ton [62] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption Volume - In July 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,572 tons [70] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees declined slightly, and the operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April declined slightly. The production and sales volumes of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May declined slightly [73] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In July 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. The output of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer整机 decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level [80] - In July 2025, the consumption of household appliances and new energy declined month - on - month [82] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, which was in sync with the performance of tin prices [87]