沪锡产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 425340 | -4230 2月-3月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -380 | 450 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 56605 | 4728 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 55233 | -1021 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -4973 | 1468 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7195 | 40 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 9720 | 171 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 345 | 50 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 8624 | 42 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 434850 | 14550 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 437200 | 13460 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 9 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

| | | 沪锡产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 349640 | -9410 2月-3月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -670 | -120 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 44323 | -203 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 38798 | -5171 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -370 | 532 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 5405 | -15 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7936 | -541 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 120 | -35 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 6788 | 8 -900 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | | | | 现货市场 | | 355050 | | 352730 | -4970 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 348820 | 14450 2月-3月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -590 | 70 2758 | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | | 42466 | 2216 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 41195 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | | -2355 | 761 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 5415 | 0 | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | | 7936 | -541 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 160 | 0 | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | | 7086 | -259 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 341050 | 9450 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 342520 | 8470 | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | | -2770 | -6300 LME锡升贴水(0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate with a bullish bias, suggesting attention be paid to the range of 320,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows the US "small non - farm" ADP improvement, and the Federal Reserve has "ample room" to cut interest rates. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, processing fees are low, refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and overall trading volume is low. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a warming of the bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 322,630 yuan/ton, up 10,310 yuan; the 1 - 2 month contract closing price is - 770 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 39,850 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 47,499 lots, up 4,075 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is 753 lots, up 1,084 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 3,050 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, up 506 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,151 tons, down 86 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 317,140 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 41 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, up 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 203,370 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,245,400 tons, up 136,100 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Federal Reserve's October JOLTS job vacancies rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high. - The Bank of Japan Governor hinted at future interest rate hikes "more than once". - Trump considered two candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and there were speculations about interest rate cuts and tariff adjustments [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for tin investment, with an expected price range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for shock adjustment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,230 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai tin is - 440 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 24,776 lots, up 57 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures is 128 lots, down 65 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 1,755 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 365 tons, down 120 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warrants are 7,332 tons, down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,200 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,190 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan [3] - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73 US dollars/ton, down 31 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [3] - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Modi plans to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit [3] - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies like Apple and TSMC that build or promise to build factories in the US [3] - The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on existing tariffs [3] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might signal a turning point in the US economy [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to factors like enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates [3] - After the PV industry's rush to install ended, some producers' operating rates declined; the electronics industry is in a slow season, and the US plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors adds to the pressure. Downstream enterprises are in a traditional consumption slow season with few orders [3] - The current high prices suppress downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment sentiment. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has slightly increased [3] - Technically, with low open interest, both bulls and bears are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound adjustment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3] - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - In the demand sector, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [3] - Recently, tin prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants [3] - Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and the price is adjusted widely within the range. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons (weekly), down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,605 tons (daily), down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14,070 tons, down 3,390 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In June in China, the social financing increment was 420 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [3] - The EU is prepared to impose counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [3] - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The macro - face shows the Fed officials' differences on interest - rate cuts are public. The fundamentals indicate that the resumption progress of Myanmar's Wa State tin mines is highly uncertain, and Thailand's ban on transit transportation of tin mines restricts imports. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. The smelting end has raw material shortages and cost pressures, with low raw - material inventories and low operating rates. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks due to price corrections. Technically, the position is low, and it faces MA60 resistance. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,880 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 32,690 dollars/ton, up 590 dollars. The 8 - 9 - month contract closing price of Shanghai tin is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 17,549 lots, down 985 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,459 lots, down 1,007 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,175 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 685 tons, down 5 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,444 tons, down 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 261,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 261,510 yuan/ton, down 1,560 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 80.99 dollars/ton, up 103.99 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 170,130 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and subsidy funds will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year [2] 3.7 Key Points - Myanmar's tin ore imports are restricted; Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in June. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages and cost pressures; Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure. The consumer electronics market is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises replenish stocks. The domestic inventory decreases slightly, and overseas de - stocking is obvious. Technically, it faces MA60 resistance and 257,000 yuan/ton support [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The actual resumption of production in the tin industry may be slower than market expectations, with low smelting enterprise operating rates and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin was 263,730 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price was 32,550 dollars/ton, down 230 dollars [2]. - The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was 160 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the position of the main contract was 21,967 lots, down 1,949 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin was 2,664 lots, down 101 lots; the total LME tin inventory was 2,155 tons, down 105 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,107 tons, down 265 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 520 tons, up 105 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 6,662 tons, down 98 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price was 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 265,190 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan [2]. - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was 270 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 164 dollars/ton, down 81.5 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 253,600 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 257,600 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,710 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [2]. - The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - From January to May, China's real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, down 10.7% year - on - year; the housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 9.2% year - on - year [2]. - The new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 22.8%; the sales area of new commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, down 2.9% year - on - year [2]. - The sales volume of new commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, down 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, down 7.15 million square meters month - on - month [2]. - In May, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 6.4% [2]. - In the first five months, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year [2]. - The macro - situation shows that Iran hopes to end hostilities through dialogue, weakening market risk - aversion sentiment. China's May social retail sales had the highest year - on - year increase since December 2023 [2].