1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at MA10 [3]. - On the macro - front, Trump claims productive dialogue with Iran, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure and negotiating a broader agreement. On the fundamental side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, the supply shortage is showing signs of alleviation, the production of refined tin will gradually recover but may be affected, the import pressure is increasing, the demand in the AI field is strong, the spot premium is high, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is warming, and the inventory is decreasing significantly while LME inventory is increasing and the spot premium is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 347,970 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,500 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,660 US dollars/ton; the main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 21,087 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,897 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 6,796 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 268 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,805 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 635 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75 tons [3]. - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,552 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 426 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,250 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,250 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,230 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 266 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31 US dollars/ton [3]. - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 17,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 325,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 329,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 757.7 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,700 yuan/ton; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 145,500 tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump claims a "strong" dialogue with Iran, forming key points of an agreement and suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, while Iran denies the dialogue [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a 17% year - on - year increase, and aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a 35% year - on - year increase [3]. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the negotiation with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee believes inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates but still retaining the space for rate cuts this year; Milan thinks rate hikes may be needed in case of second - round inflation effects and wage increases; Daly believes excessive forward - looking guidance creates a false sense of certainty and still expects four rate cuts in 2026 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase as Myanmar's production resumes and the rainy season ends, with a slight rebound in tin ore processing fees and signs of relief in the tight supply situation. Refined tin production will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but low raw material inventories in most enterprises and losses in some external mining capacities will affect refined tin output. Indonesia's tin exports are increasing, and the import window is gradually opening, increasing import pressure. The development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have declined, and holders have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with a spot premium of over 2,500 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the range of 355,000 - 360,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,110 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract for Shanghai tin is 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 46,850 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 960 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 30,797 lots, a decrease of 903 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 9,623 lots, a decrease of 331 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 8,745 tons, an increase of 30 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 460 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 11,312 tons, a decrease of 361 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 369,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,850 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 368,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,820 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,060 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 203 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 112 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 353,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 357,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,850 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, cultivating and expanding new driving forces, achieving high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, improving people's livelihood, promoting new - type urbanization and regional coordinated development, accelerating the comprehensive green transformation, and strengthening fiscal scientific management. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance, and promoting the digital and intelligent transformation of central enterprises. From January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 1,654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry. The "Fed Whisperer" indicates that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors. US President Trump requests to postpone the China - US summit due to the Iran war [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that tin prices will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should focus on the price range of 400,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 414,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,980 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract of Shanghai Tin is down 600 yuan, a decrease of 220 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 53,915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3,615 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 12,801 lots, a decrease of 5,545 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 7,318 lots, a decrease of 514 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,680 tons, an increase of 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin is 11,556 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 414,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 415,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 11,310 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 14,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,790 yuan; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 20 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 400,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 404,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 262,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,020 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 152,870 tons, an increase of 13,870 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue to promote the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures; Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with Germany in various fields; the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that the inventory of the national passenger car industry at the end of January was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles month - on - month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles year - on - year [3] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing, but the refined tin output is still restricted. After the Spring Festival, there is pressure for output to rebound. On the import side, the export volume of Indonesian tin has increased, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream solder enterprises are on holiday, with weak procurement willingness, and the spot market has the situation of "price but no market" [3] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The position increases and the price rebounds, and the bullish sentiment is relatively strong [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term recovery, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 384,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 47,155 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 33,625 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,447 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,523 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,132 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,085 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 315 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,337 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 379 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 373,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 372,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 16,170 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13,660 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 157 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 359,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 363,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 237,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10,630 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [3] - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and other funds and new policy - based financial instruments [3] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, reaching the highest level in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief of the tight supply of tin ore [3] - Smelting end: Most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. Coupled with more year - end maintenance, the output of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for output to recover after the Spring Festival [3] - Import: The export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased [3] - Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen to 1,750 yuan/ton; LME inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has risen [3] Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate that market sentiment has recovered [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of MA5 and whether it can stand firm at the 350,000 - yuan mark [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 349,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,323 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 38,798 lots, a decrease of 5,171 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 370 lots, an increase of 532 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 35 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 6,788 tons, an increase of 8 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 355,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 352,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,970 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,670 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 52 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 343,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 347,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 226,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 144,700 tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Eight departments plan to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals, aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence in China by 2027. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct its annual weight re - balancing from January 8th to 14th, and the "technical selling" of passive funds may cause a liquidity shock. In the United States, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the decline in November but lower than the expected increase. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more - than - one - year low, and for the first time in four years, the number was less than the number of unemployed, with recruitment slowing down. The ISM Services PMI in December reached a more - than - one - year high of 54.4, indicating robust demand and a rebound in recruitment [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, with no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, the export volume of Indonesia increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints in Indonesia, but the import window remains closed. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have been purchasing on - demand recently, the inventory has continued to decline, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has increased [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a lower - shadow line with a decrease in positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The China's RatingDog Services PMI in December 2025 was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US in December unexpectedly recorded the largest contraction since 2024, dragged down by inventories [3]. - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore import supply remains relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees stay at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall tin ore import volume is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current shortage of tin ore raw materials and low raw material inventories in most enterprises mean that most enterprises are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that refined tin production will continue to be restricted and lack year - on - year growth. In terms of imports, the significant increase in Indonesia's export volume in November alleviated concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. The recent repair of import losses means that if the import window opens, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the recent high - level correction of tin prices has improved the market's willingness to purchase on opportunity, leading to a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium is volatile. Technically, with the increase in positions and the rise in prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is expected that Shanghai tin will have a short - term strong adjustment, with attention on the 34 support level and a test of the historical high of 35 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 348,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 14,450. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin was 2,758 yuan/ton with a change of 70, and the price of LME 3 - month tin was 42,466 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2,216. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 41,195 lots, and the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 2,355 lots, with a change of 761 [3]. - LME tin total inventory was 5,415 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin inventory was 7,936 tons (a decrease of 541 tons week - on - week), LME tin cancelled warrants were 160 tons (unchanged), and SHFE tin warehouse receipts were 7,086 tons (a decrease of 259 tons) [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 341,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 tin spot price was 342,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8,470. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was - 2,770 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,300, and the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 30.01 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 29.01 [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.16 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 329,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 333,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons, and the monthly import volume of refined tin was 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 218,310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5,960. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) was 1.3901 million tons, with an increase of 0.1447 million tons, and the monthly export volume of tinplate was 222,600 tons, with an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's services activities continued to expand, and this expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang proposed to strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promote the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump warned the "interim president" of Venezuela, and also mentioned that Venezuela may not be the last country to be intervened by the US and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing Index in December decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, with resistance at 345,000 - 350,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of MA10 [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin adjusted at a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.31% and an amplitude of 6.10%. The closing price of the main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months [5] - **Supply - side**: - Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level [5] - At the smelting end, the raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, so the production of refined tin is expected to continue to be restricted, and there is still no year - on - year increase [5] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. However, domestic imports remain in a loss - making state, and the quantity of imported tin is expected to remain low [5] - **Demand - side**: Recently, the price of tin has corrected at a high level, the market's willingness to purchase at an opportune time has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot premium has risen to 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has recovered [5] - **Technical - aspect**: With the price adjustment at a high position of open interest, the bullish atmosphere has weakened, and it is facing the key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures and Spot Price**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 337,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,480 yuan/ton or 1.6% from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 42,490 US dollars/ton, an increase of 215 US dollars/ton or 0.51% from December 18. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of Shanghai tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 300 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.67, an increase of 0.25 from December 19. As of December 24, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.02, an increase of 0.23 from December 18 [14] - **Open Interest Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 2,656 lots, a decrease of 1,285 lots from December 22, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 102,368 lots, a decrease of 17,373 lots or 14.51% from December 19 [17] 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Tin Ore Imports and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On December 26, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on December 24, 2025 [30] - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 25, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 9,403.84 yuan/ton, an increase of 471.06 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [35][36] - **Inventory Situation**: As of December 24, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 4,895 tons, an increase of 705 tons or 16.83% from December 17. As of December 26, 2025, the total tin inventory was 8,477 tons, an increase of 382 tons or 4.72% from last week. The tin futures inventory was 7,969 tons, an increase of 125 tons or 1.59% from December 19 [39] - **Demand - side**: - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On December 24, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,204.37, an increase of 509.06 or 7.6% from December 17. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431,840 million pieces, an increase of 36,570.72 million pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [42] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate with a bullish bias, suggesting attention be paid to the range of 320,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton. The macro - economic situation shows the US "small non - farm" ADP improvement, and the Federal Reserve has "ample room" to cut interest rates. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, processing fees are low, refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and overall trading volume is low. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise indicates a warming of the bullish sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 322,630 yuan/ton, up 10,310 yuan; the 1 - 2 month contract closing price is - 770 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 39,850 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 47,499 lots, up 4,075 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is 753 lots, up 1,084 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 3,050 tons, down 25 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, up 506 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,151 tons, down 86 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 317,140 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 9,610 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 41 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, up 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 203,370 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,245,400 tons, up 136,100 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Federal Reserve's October JOLTS job vacancies rose to a five - month high, but recruitment decreased and lay - offs reached a two - year high. - The Bank of Japan Governor hinted at future interest rate hikes "more than once". - Trump considered two candidates for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and there were speculations about interest rate cuts and tariff adjustments [3].