1月2日（周三），美元兑日元延续偏强运行格局，但日元并未出现加速贬值态势。当前主导日元走势的 核心因素可归结为以下几方面：其一，日本财政状况引发的市场担忧，叠加风险偏好回升、日本央行下 一次加息时点的不确定性，持续对日元汇率形成压制；不过，日本央行政策正常化的路径预期与美联储 降息预期形成对冲，再叠加汇市干预风险犹存，使得市场对日元的空头操作趋于谨慎。 日本内阁近期批准了规模高达122.3万亿日元的年度预算案，该规模刷新历史纪录，财政可持续性问题 再度成为投资者关注焦点，对日元市场情绪构成一定拖累。其二，市场风险偏好维持相对高位，削弱了 日元作为传统避险货币的配置吸引力。与此同时，投资者对于日本央行下一次加息的具体时点仍存较大 分歧。市场普遍认为，能源补贴政策、米价稳定机制以及低油价环境的共同作用，或使日本通胀在2026 年前维持温和水平，进而降低短期内央行加息的紧迫性。 日本央行立场：加息路径未发生根本性转向 尽管短期政策节奏存在不确定性，但日本央行的政策方向并未出现根本变化。日本央行行长植田和男明 确表态，只要经济与通胀走势符合预期，央行将持续推进加息进程，并通过动态调整货币支持力度，助 力经济实现可持续 ...

2025年年末，美元兑日元汇率延续强势震荡格局，截至12月30日亚市早盘，汇价交投于154.85附近，逼 近年内高点155.20。全年来看，尽管美元指数累计下跌近10%，但美元兑日元仅微跌0.5%，显著跑赢其 他主要交叉盘，市场对2026年汇价突破160关口的预期持续升温。 近期新年假期临近导致市场交投清淡，美元兑日元波动幅度收窄，但整体维持偏强态势。12月29日欧洲 盘时段，汇价在154.50-155.00区间窄幅震荡，美元指数的微弱反弹与套息交易买盘为汇价提供支撑。短 期来看，上方关键压力位集中在155.20-155.50区间，下方支撑则位于153.80-154.00，若站稳155关口， 后续大概率向156-157区间迈进。 美元兑日元逆势偏强的核心，在于美日两国货币政策的结构性分化。美联储2025年累计降息75个基点至 3.50%-3.75%，但12月议息会议反对票创2019年以来新高，内部分歧加剧预示2026年降息步伐将放缓， 市场预计全年仅降息2次共50个基点。反观日本央行，虽于12月加息至0.75%，但加息节奏极为谨慎， 隔夜掉期数据显示市场需到2026年9月才会完全计入下一次加息预期，持续的负实 ...

技术面来看，美元兑日元短期呈现明显的空头趋势。汇价跌破156.00关口及100小时均线后，下方支撑 位聚焦于155.30一线，若该支撑位失守，汇价可能进一步下探155.00整数关口，甚至指向154.50附近； 上方阻力位则集中在156.00关口，若能重新站稳该位置，汇价或再度冲击156.60-157.00区间。 日本通胀数据表现为日银政策调整提供了潜在支撑。日本11月核心CPI年率虽较前值小幅回落，但仍维 持在2%的目标水平上方，显示通胀粘性犹存。与此同时，日本劳动力市场保持紧张，失业率稳定在 2.4%的低位，薪资上涨压力逐步显现，部分机构预测日银可能在2026年一季度开启加息周期，结束负 利率政策。这种政策前景的差异，导致市场对日元的看多情绪有所升温，推动美元兑日元逐步下探。 汇市干预风险始终是市场关注的焦点。此前美元兑日元攀升至156.00上方时，日本财务省官员多次发 出"警惕汇率过度波动"的口头警告，暗示不排除直接入市干预的可能。目前汇价虽回落至155.60附近， 但仍处于历史高位区间，若后续美元兑日元再度快速上行突破157.00关口，日本财务省出手干预的概率 将显著上升，可能引发汇价短期大幅波动。 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to show a strong oscillating pattern, influenced by both internal economic pressures in Japan and external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2]. Internal Factors - Japan's economic fundamentals are under pressure, with Q3 GDP declining at an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking a return to negative growth after six quarters. Key contributors to this decline include shrinking exports and a significant drop in private residential investment [1]. - The Japanese government's economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen raises concerns about potential fiscal deterioration, leading to a "sell Japan" trade sentiment that pressures both the yen and Japanese government bonds [1]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy is evident, with ongoing political pressures causing market concerns about the pace of interest rate hikes [1]. External Factors - Market expectations indicate an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, contributing to a relatively stable USD/JPY interest rate differential [2]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Fed initiates a series of rate cuts, the USD/JPY could depreciate by nearly 10% over the next few months, potentially reaching the 140 level by Q1 2026 [2]. - The recent weakness of the yen has drawn significant attention from Japanese authorities, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki mentioning the possibility of intervention, and the Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister emphasizing close monitoring of speculative currency behavior [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently trading within a critical range of 156-157, with resistance near the 160 intervention level and support around 155.80 [3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 58, indicating that there is still potential for upward movement, although momentum appears to be waning [3]. - Key signals to watch include potential currency market intervention by Japanese authorities and the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's December policy decision and the Bank of Japan's rate meeting on December 19 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been weakening due to market expectations that the newly elected Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, will pressure the Bank of Japan to slow down interest rate hikes, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising approximately 5% since October 4, reaching 155.00 [1] Group 1: Government Response to Yen Depreciation - Upgrading verbal intervention is highly likely, as the Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the yen's "one-sided and severe" fluctuations, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressing heightened vigilance against the yen's volatility [2] - There is a possibility of signaling recent interest rate hikes, as concerns over the yen's depreciation may prompt Prime Minister Takashi to support raising the policy rate to 0.75% [3] - The Bank of Japan may implement interest rate hikes, with indications from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting a gradual adjustment of monetary easing, potentially leading to a rate increase in December or January [4] Group 2: Market Intervention Considerations - The likelihood of direct market intervention is low, as the last intervention occurred in July 2024 when the yen hit a 38-year low against the dollar, and current government members do not show significant concern over yen depreciation [5]