Market Dynamics - The stock market momentum has weakened, with indices like Nasdaq dropping over 2% and European markets declining approximately 1% [1] - President Trump signed a bill approved by Congress, effectively ending the government shutdown, but the market seems to have already priced in this outcome [1] - The primary concern now is whether upcoming official data will support or oppose the Federal Reserve's further easing policies, particularly the expected rate cut in December [1] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a third risk management rate cut is not guaranteed, yet the market maintains a high certainty (about 70%) for this outcome [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50% for the first time, as indicated by ICMarkets [3] - Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see attitude towards a December rate cut, opposing the October cut due to strong economic fundamentals and high inflation [3] - Cleveland Fed's Harmack reiterated support for pausing rate cuts next month, emphasizing that inflation concerns outweigh labor market worries [3] - The 30-year Treasury auction saw a tail of $25 billion, with long-end performance being weak, while U.S. Treasury yields generally rose by 2.2 to 5 basis points [3] Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate rebounded due to interest rate influences but faced resistance near 1.1630 due to U.S. risk aversion [4] - The dollar/yen momentum encountered resistance at the 155 mark, indicating a loss of support for the dollar index [4] - The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.096 against the dollar, marking its strongest level since October 2024, although weaker-than-expected monthly data limited further appreciation [4] - The euro to pound exchange rate rose to approximately 0.885, the highest since April 2023, amid speculation regarding the UK budget and tax rate adjustments [4] Employment and Economic Reports - The monthly employment report from KPMG and REC indicated the first growth in temporary worker paychecks in 16 months, while permanent job recruitment trends have slowed for the fourth consecutive month [5] - Despite economic weakness and uncertainty surrounding the government budget, employers remain cautious about new hiring [5] - A joint statement from the U.S. government and four Latin American countries announced a reduction in tariffs on various domestically produced goods, including bananas, coffee, and beef, aimed at alleviating the cost of living crisis [5]

报告内容 过度超买触发调整。近期美股市场出现一波集中抛售，我们认为主要原因并非来自 新增的冲击性宏观因素，而是前期涨势过快、技术面过度超买所致。无论是标普 500、纳指还是道指，在连续数周强劲反弹后，均处于偏高估值区间，资金稍有避 险情绪便引发获利回吐。值得注意的是，与股市同步，数字货币市场率先爆发更大 规模的调整。据统计，在 9 月 22 日超过 40 万名数字货币投资者遭遇强制平仓， 涉及平仓金额超过 16 亿美元。比特币、以太币等价格随之大跌，导致整体数字资 产市值跌破 4 万亿美元的重要关口。数字货币行情向来波动剧烈，本轮急跌更多 反映出在宏观数据公布前的高杠杆平仓潮。这样的资金动态呈现出一个共同特征： 前期投资人过于乐观，迭加政策不确定性升高，最终导致风险资产集中性调整。 PMI 显示经济增速放缓，但未出现硬着陆迹象。从经济基本面来看，日前标普环球 （S&P Global）公布最新的美国 9 月 PMI 虽然略低于预期，但仍维持在 50 荣枯 线之上，显示经济活动处于扩张区间。其中，本季度产出指数录得年初以来最佳表 现。值得留意的是，随着需求增长放缓，企业招聘变得更为保守，而通胀压力也有 所缓解，有 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut rates and indicated more cuts are likely through the end of the year, leading to record highs in stocks and rising bond yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell below 4% but has since risen to 4.116%, influenced by significant jobless claims data [2] - The jobless claims number represents the largest weekly decline in four years, prompting a reassessment of the Fed's rate cut projections [3] Group 2 - The Fed's decision to prioritize employment risks over inflation risks is seen as a necessary move to prevent potential job losses that could negatively impact the economy [4][5] - Despite the Fed's balanced risk assessment, there is a perception that the risks are skewed more towards employment, justifying the recent rate cuts [6] - The Fed has missed its inflation target for seven consecutive years, with inflation consistently exceeding the target by more than 50 basis points in six of those years [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and the resumption of rate cuts after nine months [1] - The FOMC statement highlighted increased downside risks to employment, a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, and a rise in inflation [1] - Market expectations for another rate cut in October exceed 90% following the Fed's announcement [1] Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that job growth has slowed and that the labor market is showing signs of fatigue, while inflation remains slightly elevated [1] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, suggesting it is a precaution against a sharp economic slowdown rather than the beginning of a monetary easing cycle [1] - Wall Street traders have increased their bets on at least one more rate cut this year, leading to mixed performance in major U.S. stock indices [1] Group 3 - Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 2.85%, and notable gains in companies like Baidu and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation [3] - Morgan Stanley reported that U.S. investor interest in Chinese stocks has reached its highest level in five years, indicating a potential influx of capital into the Chinese market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, with potential for two more cuts this year, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions [1][4]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stock markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines, indicating investor uncertainty about future economic trends [8][9]. - The Dow Jones closed at 46,018.32, up 260.42 points (+0.57%), while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,600.35, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.3% to 22,261.33 [2][8]. Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The decision to cut rates was passed with an 11-1 vote, with only Stephen Miran opposing the decision, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2][5]. - The internal division within the Fed was less than market expectations, indicating a dominant dovish stance among committee members [2][5]. Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Fed's updated dot plot indicates that 10 out of 19 members expect two more rate cuts this year, while one member predicts a total cut of 125 basis points, reflecting a cautious outlook on economic conditions [5]. - The Fed slightly raised its economic growth forecast for the year but maintained its outlook on inflation and unemployment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [5][6]. Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - Despite high interest rates, consumer spending remains resilient, with retail sales and personal consumption expenditures exceeding expectations, suggesting that household spending power has not been fully suppressed [6][9]. - The Fed emphasized the need to remain vigilant about inflation pressures, indicating that the rate cut should not be interpreted as a signal for aggressive easing [6][9]. Future Rate Projections - The dot plot suggests only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is significantly lower than market expectations of two to three cuts, indicating a cautious approach even in the face of potential economic downturns [5][9]. - The Fed's long-term neutral rate median is set at 3%, with some members suggesting it should be lower, reflecting a careful stance on future monetary policy [5].