Group 1 - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting the release of the October non-farm payroll report [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers are divided on whether to cut rates in December, with more members opposing a cut than supporting it, leading to a rise in the dollar index [2][3] - The updated release schedule for the non-farm payroll report means the Federal Reserve will lack key evidence to support a rate cut, further increasing divisions on inflation outlook among decision-makers [2] Group 2 - The dollar index has seen significant fluctuations this year, dropping from above 109 to around 96, primarily due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][4] - The recent rise in the dollar index has negatively impacted global risk asset prices, with major stock indices experiencing substantial gains throughout 2025 [4] - The strengthening dollar has led to declines in sensitive assets like Bitcoin and gold, as well as adjustments in high-valuation U.S. tech stocks, indicating a potential end to the current bull market in risk assets [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ADP employment figures in the US in October significantly exceeded expectations, reversing the downward trend from the previous month's revised data, indicating signs of stabilization in the labor market, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high in nearly 8 months. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown in the US and the delay in official data release, the market has concerns about the economic and employment outlook, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains volatile [2]. - Despite being affected by overseas markets, A - shares showed resilience. The index remained in the consolidation range after breaking through 4000 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% this week, returning to the 4000 - point level. The large - cap broad - based indices were relatively stronger, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rising about 0.8% for the week, leading the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2]. - The trading volume this week decreased significantly compared to last week, with the average daily volume less than 2 trillion. The inflow of margin trading slowed down, and the market entered a phase of volume - contraction game [2]. - The "dividend + micro - cap" old dumbbell structure returned in terms of style. The CSI Dividend and micro - cap stock indices led the core indices, while the Beijing Stock Exchange and Sci - tech Innovation Board lagged behind [2]. - The basis of all varieties weakened slightly compared to last week. The premium of IH narrowed to less than 1%, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM reached 2.5%, 9.9%, and 12.7% respectively, still at the lower quartile in the past three years. The near - end of the term structure declined slightly, with little overall change from last week, and long - short diversified hedging can still be maintained [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion of Basis Direction - This week's model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively next week [4]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - Specific data on the predicted basis changes of IH, IF, and IC are provided, but the information is presented in a somewhat disorganized manner in the text [3]. This Week's Review - The ADP employment data in the US in October reversed the previous decline, and the ISM Services PMI reached a new high, but market concerns persisted due to the government shutdown and data delay. The A - share market showed resilience despite overseas shocks, with the index rising and the large - cap broad - based indices performing better. The trading volume decreased, and the "dividend + micro - cap" style returned. The basis of all varieties weakened slightly [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have been continuously falling, and asphalt prices are slowly following the downward trend. The overall situation in October shows an increase in supply. Although some refineries have shut down, demand has declined due to the rainy season in the north, resulting in the off - peak season for asphalt. The general trend will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Two information companies' tracking data shows that the planned production of local refineries in October is 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although some refineries are in maintenance or intermittent production, overall market supply shows an increasing trend [3] - **Demand**: Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day, domestic asphalt market demand has declined. However, there are still some construction rush expectations in the market. The total shipment this week is 393,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [3] - **Inventory**: Factory inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Social inventories are decreasing, especially in the north [3] - **Cost**: After the National Day, crude oil prices have been continuously falling. Multiple factors such as trade tensions, supply warnings, and geopolitical issues have affected the decline of crude oil prices. Currently, Brent crude has fallen to the important support level of $60 [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is also oscillation, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3] Part Two: Price - The report presents charts of the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9][11] Part Two: Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: Charts show the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [14][16] - **Basis**: Charts show the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, and Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 [18] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: Charts show the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [22][24][25][28] - **Capacity Utilization**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][37][38][39][40] - **Maintenance Loss**: Charts show the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [44] Part Two: Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: A chart shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - **Diluted Asphalt**: Charts show the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [50][51][52] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Charts show the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [56][58][59] - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [61][62] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: Charts show the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [65] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 to 2025 [67][68][69][71][73][74]