智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，在高油价、高通胀和高利率的背景下，全球资产定价逻 辑正在发生变化。美债收益率更易受到通胀与供给影响，长端利率中枢面临上行压力，黄金在通胀与不 确定性环境下具备配置价值，原油价格中枢抬升成为重要约束。美元短期仍受避险与流动性支撑，但中 期在财政压力与储备多元化背景下面临调整压力。人民币资产的吸引力将有所提升，中国远离冲突核心 区域，政策仍有空间，产业链与供给能力较强，使其在"稳定性"维度具备优势。A股短期受外部扰动影 响，但在电力设备、高端制造等领域仍存在结构性机会；港股受外资流动影响更大，波动较高，但在估 值偏低背景下，对中长期资金的吸引力有所上升。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 美债供给扩张叠加需求转弱，长端利率面临持续上行压力。截至3月，美国联邦债务已接近40万亿美 元，近几个月扩张速度明显加快，叠加对外军事支出与长期财政赤字，发债需求仍在上升。在当前利率 水平下，利息支出增长较快，2026财年可能突破1万亿美元。需求端也在发生变化，高通胀压低实际回 报，海外主要持有国如日本和中国在2025年末曾出现阶段性减持。同时，部分中东产油国和新兴市场也 在逐步推进储备多元 ...

Q&A 在当前地缘政治冲突背景下，油价波动对化工行业不同板块的具体影响如何？ 以及应如何看待高油价对行业供需格局的长期作用？ 更新油气价格展望及大化工的投资建议 20260316 当前市场调整为部分化工龙头及细分板块提供了新的布局机会，其核心投资逻 辑主要围绕稳固的竞争格局、供给端约束以及中长期的供需改善预期。 首先， 对于万华化学、华峰化学、龙佰集团等核心龙头企业，其未来扩产已放缓，龙 头地位带来的阿尔法优势显著。以万华化学为例，其 MDI、TDI 业务在全球市 场占据主导地位，拥有强大的定价权和成本传导能力，近期聚氨酯产品的价差 利润已有所扩大。其乙烷制乙烯业务也受益于高油价环境。这些龙头公司的产 品价格普遍处于底部，预计存在上行空间。 其次，硅化工板块（如兴发集团、 新安股份）的供需关系正在改善，产品价格存在弹性。草甘膦、工业硅等产品 价格已处在底部，其中工业硅行业目前主要仅龙头合盛能够盈利，多数企业处 于亏损状态。未来，受益于全球新能源发展和"双碳"政策升级，行业有望复 苏。 再者，近期回调较多的纺织服装产业链，包括染料、PTA、涤纶长丝、氨 纶等，其投资逻辑并未改变。这些产品在终端服装成本中占比较低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran may persist, leading to long - term high oil prices, and in extreme cases, oil prices may exceed the 2008 record of $147 [1][7][9] - Rising oil prices will drive the chemical industry into a bull market, the agricultural product bull market has emerged, while the black - series commodities may enter a long - term bull market later [1][11][18] - High oil prices have limited impact on China and may boost the export of domestic new energy products [1][12][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Middle East Situation Update - The US military launched a "violent air strike" on military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, but Iran's oil facilities on the island are intact and oil exports are normal [3] - Iran threatens to destroy US - related facilities if its infrastructure is attacked, and the US is considering bombing oil facilities on Kharg Island and sending more troops and warships to the Middle East [3] - There is news that Iran may allow limited oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with oil cargo settled in RMB, which could weaken the US influence [3] 3.2 Reasons for Long - Term High - Oil - Price Threat - There is little possibility of negotiation between the US and Iran as Iran's cease - fire conditions are unacceptable to the US and Israel [7] - Iran has lost trust in the US and Israel due to previous bombings during negotiations, and it may choose to fight [8] - Blocking the Strait of Hormuz and raising oil prices are beneficial for Iran, increasing the revenue of the Revolutionary Guard [8] - If the US takes extreme actions, it will lead to higher oil prices, and the current losses have become a sunk cost, with the risk of both sides taking extreme measures [9] 3.3 Impact of High Oil Prices on Commodities - Chemical products have generally risen significantly after the increase in oil prices, and a long - term high oil price will start an upward cycle for them [11] - High oil prices increase the cost of soybean planting, and combined with possible yield declines, the price of agricultural products like soybeans may rise [11] - Black - series commodities have weak demand expectations and may be the last to enter the bull market [11] 3.4 Impact of High Oil Prices on China - China's CPI and PPI are in a low state, and the impact of high oil prices on them is relatively controllable and may help achieve price policy goals [12] - China has diverse oil import channels, and the interruption of Middle East oil supply will have limited impact [16] - High oil prices are beneficial for the export of China's electric vehicles and new - energy power - generation equipment, offsetting the negative impact of oil price increases [17][18]

面对美国国内能源价格上涨压力，美国白宫发言人莱维特1 0日辩称，近期燃油价格上涨 是"暂时的"，美国对伊朗动武"从长期看会带来更低的燃油价格"。 编辑丨闫志强 路透社和益普索集团最新民调显示，美国民众普遍不满高昂生活成本，对特朗普政府无法 有效应对这个问题感到失望。 来源： 新华国际头条 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c n e n e rg y） ▲ 这是3月9日在 美国 洛杉矶拍摄的一家加油站的油价标牌。 受中东局势影响，国际油价近期大幅上涨，一度逼近每桶120美元。高油价导致美国国内 燃油价格持续攀升。根据美国汽车协会数据，美国全国每加仑普通汽油均价近两周累计涨 幅近20%。美国媒体认为，美国对伊朗动武推高全美油价，给特朗普政府带来压力。 莱维特10日在记者会上试图安抚美国国内对高油价的担忧。她说："请美国人民放心，近 期石油和燃油价格上涨是暂时的。从长远来看，（美国对伊朗的）这次行动将带来更低的 燃油价格。" ...

Employment Data Overview - In February, the U.S. added -92,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 59,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the anticipated 4.3%[2] Structural Factors Impacting Employment - Structural issues include rising tariff policy uncertainty, government sector contraction, and geopolitical tensions driving oil prices up[4] - The impact of AI on labor markets is evident, with companies like Oracle considering layoffs in the thousands due to automation[4] Non-Structural Factors Affecting Employment - Short-term shocks included a loss of 34,000 jobs in education and healthcare, primarily due to labor disputes in California and Hawaii[5] - Seasonal factors also contributed, particularly affecting outdoor industries like construction during winter[5] Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed faces a complex trade-off between growth and inflation, with market expectations for rate cuts likely in the second half of the year[6] - Rising oil prices, nearing $90 per barrel, could complicate the Fed's ability to lower rates due to inflation concerns[6] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, gold prices fluctuated, and U.S. stock indices opened down over 1%[7] - The market showed mixed reactions, with U.S. Treasury yields initially dropping before rising again, indicating uncertainty[6] Employment Trends by Sector - Job losses were seen across both goods-producing (-25,000) and service-providing sectors (-61,000), with significant declines in education and healthcare[8] - The healthcare sector's decline was notably influenced by strikes related to wage disputes[8] Unemployment Rate Dynamics - The increase in the unemployment rate was driven by both rising unemployment numbers and a decrease in the labor force participation rate[14] - The youth unemployment rate (ages 16-24) rose to 9.5%, significantly higher than other age groups[16] Wage Growth Analysis - Average wage growth remained moderate, with notable increases in sectors like information (5.53%) and utilities (5.10%), while healthcare saw lower growth (2.81%)[21] - Overall wage growth did not indicate significant inflationary pressure in the short term[21] Future Outlook - The interplay of weak employment data and rising energy prices suggests a volatile market environment ahead[23] - The duration and impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will be critical in shaping future economic conditions[23]