每日经济新闻 （记者 张海妮） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经AI快讯，西南证券11月13日发布研报称，给予南京聚隆（300644.SZ，最新价：35.01元）"买入"评 级，目标价格为42.90元。评级理由主要包括：1）改性塑料行业迈向高端国产替代，未来应用场景广 阔；2）以高性能改性塑料为主轴，多元协同发展；3）积极切入机器人、航空航天及低空经济等新兴赛 道。风险提示：主要原材料价格波动风险，核心技术配方失密及核心技术人员流失风险，国际政治经济 形势及汇率波动风险、海外投资风险等。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——对美出口下滑到7年前水平，我国出口总额却创历史新高，"新三样"变 成"新N样" ...

盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司2025/26/27 年营业收入分别为28.2、30.8、32.3亿元，归母净利润分别 为1.6、2.2、2.5 亿元，EPS 分别为1.41、1.95、2.24元，对应PE 分别为25、18、16 倍。考虑到公司在高 性能改性塑料占据龙头地位，且产品在机器人、航空航天及低空经济应用方面有独特优势，给予公司 2026年22 倍PE，对应目标价42.90 元。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：主要原材料价格波动风险，核心技术配方失密及核心技术人员流失风险，国际政治经济形势 及汇率波动风险、海外投资风险等。 以高性能改性塑料为主轴，多元协同发展。高性能改性塑料是公司的第一大类产品，近年来通过优化产 品结构，持续放大技术附加值，板块营收和毛利率都稳中有进；热塑性弹性体是公司第二大类产品，公 司正加速落地差异化产品线，打破国外垄断，实现进口替代；控股子公司聚隆复材聚焦碳纤维复材零部 件与无人机整机"双赛道"规模化制造，已建成从复材结构件到整机总装的一站式产线，并可以同步完成 多种机型的整机装配交付；生物基资源循环塑木型材是公司的第四大类产品，远销德国、英国、澳大利 亚、泰国等40 多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, but profit growth has slowed significantly due to fair value changes and declining gross margins [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 235 million, a year-on-year increase of 42.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32 million, up 133.25% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 74 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.73%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9 million, up 47.82% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 41.78%, down 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 44.82%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase but a year-on-year decline of 2.76 percentage points [1]. Expense Analysis - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 32.30%, a decrease of 10.59 percentage points year-on-year, with specific rates for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses [2]. - In Q3, the expense ratio rose to 38.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.93% but an increase of 13.39% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to higher interest expenses from convertible bonds and costs associated with the Zhizhi Port Center building [2]. Growth Drivers - The company achieved significant breakthroughs in high-end domestic substitution and its "Diti" business, with the successful validation of the "DG3 High-Speed Balancing and Overspeed Testing Equipment" marking a major step in domestic technology [3]. - A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with an undisclosed entity to collaborate on underwater acoustic signal processing technology, indicating progress towards commercialization of new growth areas [3]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 53 million, 97 million, and 170 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 78, 43, and 24 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive outlook for its business segments and potential investment opportunities [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 9.256 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.87% [1] - Total profit amounted to 405 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.01% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 303 million, up 36.66% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 5.098 billion, a 14.41% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit for Q2 2025 was 152 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 48.86% [1] Business Segments - The new materials and other segments achieved sales revenue of 250 million, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 116.71% [2] - Wind power blade segment generated sales revenue of 3.911 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.38%, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market [3] - The automotive parts segment reported sales revenue of 3.393 billion, with the new materials segment in Germany achieving profitability for the first time since its establishment [3] - The rail transit segment generated sales revenue of 959 million, with new orders exceeding 1.26 billion, marking a new high [3] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end polyurethane automotive vibration reduction products and has established close cooperation with several well-known domestic enterprises in the low-altitude field [2] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with a significant increase in overseas revenue by 300% through collaboration with Nordex [3] - The establishment of a subsidiary in Vietnam is expected to commence production in the first half of 2026 [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in its core business areas, particularly in wind power, automotive parts, and rail transit, with new materials business anticipated to contribute significantly to profit growth [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 760 million, 897 million, and 1.087 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.96, and 1.17 [4] - The company is rated as "strong buy" with a target price of 19.2 per share based on a PE valuation method [4]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" with a target price of 19.2 CNY per share [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 9.256 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.87%. The total profit reached 405 million CNY, up 37.01% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 303 million CNY, an increase of 36.66% year-on-year [2]. - The wind power blade segment generated sales revenue of 3.911 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.38%, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market. The company has established strategic partnerships with major wind turbine manufacturers and expanded its overseas market presence significantly [2][6]. - The new materials and other segments achieved sales revenue of 250 million CNY, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 116.71%, indicating a rapid development phase [2][6]. - The company is focusing on energy transportation sectors, emphasizing vibration reduction and lightweight material technologies, with expectations for substantial profit growth in the coming years [2][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the projected total operating revenue is expected to grow from 20.055 billion CNY to 24.985 billion CNY, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 7.3%, 10.9%, and 4.7% respectively [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 445 million CNY in 2024A to 1.087 billion CNY in 2027E, with significant growth rates of 15.2%, 70.9%, 18.0%, and 21.2% [2][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.48 CNY in 2024A to 1.17 CNY in 2027E, reflecting the company's improving profitability [2][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese electronic circuit copper foil industry is experiencing rapid development and transformation, driven by the growth of emerging industries such as 5G communication, new energy vehicles, and the Internet of Things, with a projected sales volume of 440,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.32% [1][12]. Industry Overview - Electronic circuit copper foil is a cathodic electrolytic material used as a core conductor in printed circuit boards (PCBs), facilitating electrical connections between electronic components [2]. - The industry can be categorized into electrolytic copper foil and rolled copper foil based on production processes [2]. Industry Development History - The industry has evolved through four stages: 1. Initial stage (1950s-1970s) focused on manual production with low product variety and quality [4]. 2. Localization stage (1980s-1990s) marked by increased demand and technology imports, leading to improved production techniques [4]. 3. Rapid development stage (2000s-2010s) where China became the largest producer globally, emphasizing technological innovation [5]. 4. High-end transformation stage (2010s-present) driven by new industries, with a focus on high-performance materials like ultra-thin copper foil [6]. Industry Supply Chain - The supply chain includes raw materials such as copper and sulfuric acid, production equipment like cathode rollers and foil machines, and downstream applications in communication devices, consumer electronics, and automotive electronics [8]. Market Size - The demand for electronic circuit copper foil is on the rise, with a projected sales volume of 440,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a 7.32% increase year-on-year [12]. Key Companies' Performance - The industry features leading companies such as Jiantao Copper Foil, Nanya Copper Foil, and Copper Crown Copper Foil, with 14 companies reporting sales over 10,000 tons, and five exceeding 20,000 tons [14][16]. - Notable companies include: - Jiantao Copper Foil: Largest domestic producer with advanced technology and a complete supply chain [16]. - Nanya Copper Foil: Strong in high-end copper foil technology [16]. - Copper Crown Copper Foil: Leader in RTF copper foil production, with significant revenue growth [16][18]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Technological Upgrades and High-end Development** - The industry is focusing on high-frequency, high-speed copper foil and ultra-thin products, with domestic companies achieving significant breakthroughs [20]. 2. **Market Demand Changes and New Application Areas** - The growth of 5G communication and new energy vehicles is driving demand for electronic circuit copper foil, particularly in high-performance applications [21][22]. 3. **Industry Chain Collaboration and Global Layout** - Companies are increasingly collaborating within the supply chain and expanding globally to enhance competitiveness and market presence [23].

Core Viewpoint - Chemours, a global titanium dioxide supplier, announced a 125% tariff surcharge on products exported to China due to recent adjustments in U.S. export tariffs, significantly impacting business costs [1][3]. Group 1: Price Impact - The implementation of the 125% tariff surcharge will lead to a substantial increase in the cost of imported titanium dioxide in China, with prices expected to exceed $7,000 per ton, compared to the current domestic market price of 15,000-17,500 RMB per ton [3][4]. - The increase in import costs may transmit to downstream sectors such as real estate and automotive, particularly affecting companies reliant on high-end imported products [3]. Group 2: Import Dynamics - Chemours' production facilities are primarily located in the U.S. and Mexico, which are also major sources of titanium dioxide imports for China. In the first quarter of 2025, imports from Mexico and the U.S. accounted for 29.58% and 20.31% of total imports, respectively [3][4]. - Despite the tariff adjustments, China's monthly titanium dioxide import volume is relatively low compared to its production capacity, which may mitigate immediate impacts but could lead to price increases in the domestic market [4]. Group 3: Domestic Production and Market Opportunities - Some domestic titanium dioxide producers have developed chloride process production capabilities and are accelerating customer certifications for products that can replace Chemours' offerings [7]. - The domestic industry is also expanding chloride process production capacity, which may lead to increased market share in the mid-to-high-end product segments as domestic substitutes become more viable [7].