经纬恒润（688326.SH）系列点评八 2025Q4 盈利释放 智驾+商业航天双轮驱动 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 02 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,541 | 6,848 | 8,449 | 10,034 | | 增长率（%） | 18.5 | 23.6 | 23.4 | 18.8 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | -550 | 100 | 398 | 618 | | 增长率（%） | -153.3 | 118.2 | 297.6 | 55.4 | | 每股收益（元） | -4.59 | 0.83 | 3.32 | 5.15 | | PE | / | 166 | 42 | 27 | | PB | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 27 日收盘价） | 推荐 | 维持评级 | ...

经纬恒润（688326.SH）系列点评八 | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,541 | 6,848 | 8,449 | 10,034 | | 增长率（%） | 18.5 | 23.6 | 23.4 | 18.8 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | -550 | 100 | 398 | 618 | | 增长率（%） | -153.3 | 118.2 | 297.6 | 55.4 | | 每股收益（元） | -4.59 | 0.83 | 3.32 | 5.15 | | PE | / | 166 | 42 | 27 | | PB | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 27 日收盘价） | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 138.50 元 | [Table_Author] 分析师 崔琰 | 执业证书： S0590525110023 | ...

值得一提的是，2月24日，马年春节假期后首个工作日，小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏向全体员工发布开工信。 何小鹏表示，小鹏已率先在中国把握自动驾驶的"DeepSeek时刻"，第二代VLA在复杂路况操控、精准预 判与泛化能力上实现显著提升，带来智能"涌现"体验。他指出，全自动驾驶拐点已清晰显现，第二代 VLA将于本季度正式推送，并配合年内多轮OTA升级，推动高阶智能驾驶成为家庭标配。 消息面上，2月25日，小鹏汽车CEO何小鹏于微博官宣，2026款小鹏X9纯电版MPV将于3月2日正式上 市。小鹏官方介绍称，从能耗到空间，从安全到舒适，2026款小鹏X9纯电版，以"全能基因"全面对齐 X9超级增程版本。作为参考，小鹏X9超级增程MPV推出2款车型，售价区间30.98-32.98万元。该车搭载 鲲鹏超级增程技术，纯电续航452km，综合续航达1602km。 智通财经APP获悉，小鹏汽车-W(09868)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.47%，报73.1港元，成交额2.42亿港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aisin Yuan Zhi (00600) has seen a significant stock increase of 15.59%, reaching HKD 27.88, with a trading volume of HKD 113 million, following the announcement of its flagship chip product M97 for advanced intelligent driving applications [1] Group 1: Product Development - The M97 chip has recently passed testing and successfully powered on, marking a key advancement in the company's high-end intelligent driving technology [1] - M97 is positioned as the core product for the company's smart automotive business, succeeding the M55H, M76H, and M57 series [1] Group 2: Technical Specifications - M97 supports intelligent driving solutions capable of "urban NOA" and offers a product matrix that covers a range from L2+ to L3 level intelligent driving needs [1] - It is the first domestic intelligent driving chip platform built using top-tier automotive-grade technology, setting a benchmark for domestic single-chip computing power [1] - The chip features a high-performance self-developed NPU, supporting advanced intelligent driving algorithms such as VLA and World Model, and allows for rapid model migration and optimization [1] Group 3: Sensor Integration - M97 can integrate multiple sensor sources, supporting the unified processing of signals from cameras, LiDAR, and millimeter-wave radar [1]

Core Conclusion - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 3.1 billion, 4.8 billion, and 6.1 billion yuan, and net profits attributable to shareholders of 370 million, 690 million, and 1.09 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, positioning itself as a leader in the global lidar market with rapid expansion potential in advanced intelligent driving and robotics [1] Group 1: Market Potential - The market perception is that the lidar space is limited; however, the company anticipates that over 100,000 models in the price range will rapidly adopt lidar, leading to an increase in the number of lidar units per vehicle and average selling price (ASP) during the autonomous driving upgrade process [1] - The lidar market is expected to expand significantly beyond automotive applications, including scenarios such as overseas markets, robotics, unmanned logistics, and unmanned warehousing [1] Group 2: Company Strategy and Management - The company's founders have clearly defined roles that complement each other, contributing to a strategic advantage; Li Yifan oversees overall strategy and operations, Sun Kai focuses on core technology R&D, and Xiang Shaoqing specializes in system integration and software algorithm development [1] - The company's early market entry into the L4 level, commitment to chip-based lidar technology, and proprietary manufacturing processes reflect its forward-looking strategic vision and strong management team [1] Group 3: R&D and Manufacturing Capabilities - The company is a pioneer in the industry for proposing a chip-based approach, having established its chip department at the end of 2017; its AT128 lidar, launched in 2022, is the world's first vehicle-grade mass-produced chip-based long-range lidar product [2] - The company has integrated its manufacturing processes into the R&D design workflow, ensuring high performance, reliability, and low costs; it plans to increase production capacity to 4 million units by 2026, with a new factory in Thailand expected to commence production in early 2027 [2]

Group 1: Automotive Sector - Hesai Technology (2525.HK) - The report projects total revenue for Hesai Technology to reach 3.1 billion, 4.8 billion, and 6.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 370 million, 690 million, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential in high-level autonomous driving and robotics [1][3]. - The market perceives limited space for LiDAR, but the report argues that the vehicle market alone, particularly models priced over 100,000 yuan, will rapidly adopt LiDAR technology, enhancing both the number of units per vehicle and average selling price (ASP) as autonomous driving evolves [3]. - The founders of Hesai have clearly defined roles that complement each other, contributing to the company's strategic advantage. The early market entry into the L4 level, commitment to chip-based LiDAR, and proprietary manufacturing processes reflect the company's forward-looking strategy and management quality [4]. Group 2: Computer Sector - Moltbot - Moltbot, an AI assistant project, aims to make terminal containerization mainstream by allowing users to deploy it on local devices and interact through various messaging platforms, showcasing its ability to execute commands and manage workflows autonomously [5][6]. - The architecture of Moltbot includes a memory system that records conversations and actions, enabling it to summarize discussions and retain key information, thus enhancing user interaction and task management [6][7]. - The introduction of a "session isolation" mechanism allows Moltbot to operate with full system permissions in private conversations while restricting access in group chats, ensuring user data security [7]. Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Sector - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - Zijin Mining announced a plan to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (approximately 28 billion yuan), focusing on three large gold mines in Africa, which will enhance its resource base and production capacity [11][12]. - The core assets of Allied Gold are located in resource-rich areas of Africa, with significant gold reserves and production potential, including projects expected to contribute to production as early as 2023-2024 [12][13]. - The acquisition is expected to strengthen Zijin Mining's position in the global gold market, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.95, 2.76, and 3.08 yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 184.61 RMB [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 0.75 billion and 1.1 billion RMB, which exceeds previous forecasts [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the release of prior R&D investments, particularly in core electronic products like domain controllers and 5G TBOX, alongside cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2]. - The company is transitioning from a research-driven phase to a product scaling phase, with expectations for revenue and profit recovery in 2026, supported by stable production phases with key clients [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase to 7.51 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 35.49% compared to the previous year, and further growth to 9.77 billion RMB in 2026 [10]. - The net profit is projected to reach 0.88 billion RMB in 2025, with significant growth to 3.76 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a 328% increase [10]. Product and Market Development - The company is focusing on high-level intelligent driving products, with collaborations with key clients like Geely and Xiaomi expected to stabilize production and contribute to revenue growth [3]. - The international expansion is ongoing, with partnerships with global manufacturers like Stellantis and Scania, aiming for production deliveries in 2026 [3]. Valuation and Estimates - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 7.51 billion, 9.77 billion, and 12.02 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding gross margin estimates of 24.3%, 24.9%, and 26.9% [4]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a net profit of 2.64 billion RMB from hardware and 1.1 billion RMB from software in 2026, leading to a target price adjustment from 145.23 RMB to 184.61 RMB [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 0.75 billion to 1.1 billion yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in previous years [8]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance, with a net profit of 1.50 to 1.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.90 to 3.25 billion yuan [8]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 7.32 billion yuan in 2025, 9.04 billion yuan in 2026, and 10.75 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 32.2%, 23.5%, and 18.9% respectively [2][9]. - The company has made substantial progress in commercial aerospace and high-level intelligent driving, positioning itself as a key player in these sectors [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 5.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.94 billion yuan in 2025, 4.16 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.51 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 117.1%, 341.7%, and 56.6% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.78 yuan in 2025, 3.47 yuan in 2026, and 5.43 yuan in 2027 [2][9]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, utilizing AI tools and domestic alternatives to control costs and enhance gross margins [8]. - It is actively involved in the commercial aerospace sector, providing comprehensive technical systems and solutions throughout the lifecycle of commercial aerospace projects [8]. - The company is also advancing in high-level intelligent driving, with products designed to meet diverse customer needs as regulations for L3 driving are expected to expand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jingwei Hirain (688326), has seen a significant increase in stock price and market capitalization, driven by advancements in L3-level autonomous driving and developments in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors [1][4]. Group 1: L3-Level Autonomous Driving - The approval of L3-level autonomous driving models is expected to drive the production of high-level intelligent driving products, enhancing the value of domain controllers and perception products [4]. - The company has been continuously laying out its products around the requirements for high-level intelligent driving, including domain controllers, perception, sensors, and safety compliance [1][4]. - The contribution to the company's performance from high-level intelligent driving will depend on the progress of customer model approvals, pilot promotion scope, and mass production ramp-up [1]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The subsidiary, Runke General, has made progress in commercial aerospace by providing rocket control system components and establishing cooperative development opportunities for satellite payloads [2][4]. - Runke General leverages its expertise in electronics, radar, communication, control, and electromechanical systems to offer a complete technical system and comprehensive solutions for the entire lifecycle of commercial aerospace [2]. Group 3: Low-Altitude Economy - The company has already established a business layout in the low-altitude economy, expanding its service capabilities from aircraft and automobiles to this emerging sector [2]. - The main advantages in the low-altitude economy include a team with backgrounds in automotive and high-end equipment, facilitating smooth communication and cooperation with long-term clients [2]. - The low-altitude economy business capabilities cover avionics, control, power, and energy systems, supporting the entire R&D process and including electronic product offerings [2].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant development of urban Navigation Assisted Driving (NOA) as a new competitive frontier for China's automotive industry, driving a transformation in the global industrial ecosystem [1] Market Overview - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of passenger cars equipped with urban NOA reached 3.129 million units, with a market penetration rate of 15.1%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] - Domestic brands led the smart driving wave, contributing 2.5373 million units, accounting for 81.1% of total sales, while global brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Toyota are collaborating with leading Chinese technology suppliers [2] Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by a "dual-driven" model of "in-house development" by car manufacturers and "third-party collaboration" [4] - In the third-party supplier market, Momenta and Huawei dominate, holding approximately 80% of the market share, with Momenta leading at about 61.06% and Huawei at 19.76% [4] Technological Advancements - The report emphasizes that technological iteration is the fundamental driving force of industry development, with end-to-end large models leading the transformation of smart driving system architecture [6] - Companies like Tesla and Li Auto have achieved mass production of "one-piece" end-to-end models, while Huawei's architecture enhances complex scenario processing through cloud-vehicle collaboration [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2030, high-level autonomous driving functions will achieve large-scale market application, with urban NOA expected to become a mainstream configuration, potentially generating trillions in industry growth [8] - It identifies challenges such as the need for breakthroughs in core technologies, data security, and the establishment of a regulatory framework, proposing five key development recommendations [8]