中财期货表示，在现货价格季节性回升提振下，近日空头有获利平仓迹象，推动期价低位反弹，目前期 货后续可能承接旺季做多力量，建议等待企稳低多思路。 目前来看，鸡蛋行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于鸡蛋后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国投安信期货指出，周末鸡蛋现货价格继续上涨，期货远月的合约跌幅较大，近月受到现货上涨的支 撑。当前仍然处在现货的季节性反弹窗口期，关注9月现货价格反弹的力度和持续性。行业面临的高存 栏问题仍需要产能深度去化，8月以来虽已见到淘汰加速但距离深度去化仍有距离。新开产方面，7、8 月鸡苗补栏处于低位，预计年底左右新开产压力减小，我们根据前期鸡苗补栏数据及静态淘汰节奏估 算，预计年内四季度左右能见到本轮产能高点。对于明年上半年的远月合约，可以考虑择机布局远月的 多单，近月合约则需重点关注空头资金未来的离场问题。 9月15日，国内期市农副产品板块涨跌参半。其中，鸡蛋期货主力合约开盘报3091.00元/500千克，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，鸡蛋主力最高触及3197.00元，下方探低3079.00元，涨幅达 3.81%。 正信期货分析称，供给端，淘鸡日龄虽已回落至50 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the egg industry is bearish, with the supply rating being bearish, demand and profit being neutral, and strategies being bearish [2] Report's Core View - In the context of high egg production capacity, the traditional peak season this year is lackluster. The price of eggs is expected to decline until March next year, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is likely to continue [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: Involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [3][5] - **Egg Basis**: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [6][8] - **Egg Spread**: Focuses on the spreads between different egg futures contracts [9][10] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: Examines the long - short ratios of institutional positions in the October and November egg futures contracts [12][13] Supply Analysis - **Laying Hen Inventory**: Covers laying hen inventory and its structure [15][16] - **Culling Situation**: Includes culling prices, average culling age, and the number of culled hens in sample enterprises [17][18] - **Replenishment Situation**: Analyzes the price and sales volume of commercial layer chicks [19][21] - **Large and Small Egg Sizes**: Considers the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of their price spreads [22][23] Demand Analysis - **Shipping Volume and Sales Volume**: Analyzes the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipping volume in main production areas [24][25] - **Inventory**: Covers the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - **Substitutes**: Examines the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and eggs and vegetables [29][31] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Cost**: Includes the feed cost per catty of eggs and the average price of layer feed [33][34] - **Breeding Profit**: Analyzes the egg - feed ratio, expected profit, and comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market is experiencing a decline, with the September contract closing at 3484 yuan per 500 kg, down 144 yuan from the previous week, due to high inventory levels and increased supply pressure [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The current inventory of laying hens is at a high level, leading to significant production pressure from newly added hens, resulting in ample egg supply [1] - Despite the high supply, there is a short-term easing of market supply pressure due to decreased egg production rates in some regions caused by ongoing high temperatures [1] - Terminal demand is gradually improving, and there remains a bullish sentiment among producers hoping for price increases [1] Market Strategy - The near-month contracts are experiencing weak adjustments due to bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory levels, while the far-month contracts show notable resilience [1] - A strategy of lightly entering long positions in far-month contracts is recommended [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for eggs experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 3564.00 yuan, closing at 3556.00 yuan with a rise of 2.15% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhongtai Futures suggests that the main egg contract is approaching a position limit, and a decrease in positions may lead to slight fluctuations in the market [2] - Everbright Futures indicates that the egg market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with stable prices in production areas and a slight decline in some sales areas [3] - Wenkang Futures notes that the near-month egg market remains under a logic of contango, recommending short positions at high prices due to stable supply and general market demand [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zhongtai Futures highlights that there is significant pressure from existing stock and a strong willingness to replace old hens, which may push supply pressure to the peak season around the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Everbright Futures mentions that the new supply volume is expected to continue increasing before August, with limited downward space for prices as many areas have seen prices drop to low levels [3] - Wenkang Futures points out that while the supply remains stable, the demand is generally weak, and the current high temperature and humidity are leading to a focus on ensuring egg quality [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a weak state. Supply pressure is increasing due to the release of new production capacity and slow elimination of backward capacity, while demand is limited after the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of feed is around 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is at a seasonal low. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds and mainly conduct JD reverse spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - The egg futures market shows a positive market structure, with the near - month contracts following the decline of the spot market and the far - month contracts oscillating weakly. The market is still in a weak state, and although there are bottom - fishing behaviors in the market, they are ineffective. The market maintains a structure of near - weak and far - strong [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot market was generally stable, but there was an adjustment over the weekend, mainly led by the decline in northern sales areas. The production areas were relatively stable, while the egg prices in southern production areas, especially those near the plum - rain area, continued to decline. After the festival, the pulling effect of the sales areas on the spot market is expected to be weak, and the spot price will continue to search for a bottom [13]. 3.3 Supply - **New production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level, and the new volume is higher than the historical average [18]. - **Elimination of production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination of production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [18]. - **Laying hen inventory**: The inventory of laying hens remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new production capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination is delayed, which may lead to an increase in phased supply [18]. 3.4 Elimination End - The elimination of backward production capacity has started but has not entered an accelerated phase. The price of eliminated chickens has fallen from a high level, the elimination volume has been increasing but is still at a four - year low, and the elimination age is around 520 days, showing an obvious downward trend [21]. 3.5 Other Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Seasonality**: The market is in a transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and a certain turnaround is expected to occur in mid - June [25]. - **Production area**: Currently, producers in the production areas are actively selling. With the increasing high - temperature weather, new chickens are constantly starting to lay eggs [25]. - **Consumption end**: The stocking is over, the overall demand is average, and the weather factor suppresses the egg price [25]. - **Substitute products**: Vegetable prices are about to enter a seasonally strong stage, which will support the egg price to some extent. Pork prices continue to weaken, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have shown a phased increase [27]. 3.6 Cost & Profit - **Cost end**: The price of corn is running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is stable with a slight decline. The overall cost has oscillated and slightly decreased. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty [30]. - **Breeding profit**: The breeding profit has fallen below the feed cost and reached the comprehensive breeding cost. The seasonal weakness has not ended. The negative feedback of production capacity caused by profit losses is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [31]. 3.7 Capital and Basis - **Capital**: Short - term funds continue to operate at a high level without signs of leaving the market, and short - selling funds have obvious suppression [34]. - **Basis**: The basis is running at a low level. Currently, the overall contract shows a premium structure, which will continue to suppress the market in the short term. The basis has a strengthening trend in the later stage, which depends on when the spot price stabilizes [36]. 3.8 Spread - The decline of the spot price suppresses the near - month contracts, and the strategy is mainly to conduct reverse spreads in the phased period [39].