04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 反弹抛空 鸡蛋周报 2026/01/10 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内蛋价走势偏强，节前市场有看涨预期，蛋价跌至低位后养殖环节低价惜售，下游采购低价货源积极性提升，市场流通加快， 不过蛋价上涨后老鸡延淘加剧，大蛋占比明显回升；具体看，黑山大码蛋价周涨0.2元至3元/斤，周内最低2.8元/斤，馆陶周涨0.16元至 2.96/斤，周内最低2.8元/斤，销区回龙观周涨0.21元至3.3元/斤，东莞周涨0.2元至3.11元/斤；存栏仍处偏大，气温低蛋重上升快，整体 市场供应充足，仅小蛋偏紧，需求端随着节日临近、采购加快，下周蛋价或先小落再小涨。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价弱势以及养殖持续亏损的影响，市场补栏情绪延续低迷，因季节性因素，12月份补栏环比小幅增加0.1%，为7918万只， 同比下降幅度13.9%；蛋价反弹无力，养 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that egg spot prices have shown signs of strengthening since the beginning of January 2025, with prices increasing from 121 yuan to 131 yuan for 45 jin of eggs within a week [1][18] - The egg production industry faced continuous losses throughout 2025, with only minor profits during early January and September, leading to a reversal in stocking sentiment in the second half of the year compared to the first half [5][21] - The chick stocking volume began to decline year-on-year from July 2025, with monthly sales from August to December showing a decline of approximately 10% each month [7][23] Group 2 - The demand side is expected to see an increase in purchasing due to holiday demand, which, combined with a reduction in supply, is likely to lead to a gradual increase in spot prices [10][26] - The strategy for the first half of 2026 suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on egg futures, with recommendations to buy on dips and consider a near-month long and far-month short strategy [13][29] - The production and culling dynamics indicate that the number of new laying hens will be lower than the number of hens to be culled, leading to a gradual reduction in the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 [9][25]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs decreased after the National Day holiday due to lukewarm holiday demand, a significant increase in supply, and high overall inventory. The price stabilized and rebounded this week as low prices spurred sales. Considering the supply pressure and the seasonal pattern, the rebound height and strength of the spot price are expected to be limited. The futures market followed the spot market down after the holiday and has been oscillating at a low level this week. The market funds are gradually shifting from the 11 - contract to the 12 - contract. The overall trend is still bearish on rebounds, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended for options trading. The earliest inflection point in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals may occur early next year, and weekly elimination data is recommended for tracking [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract prices of eggs decreased. The 2601 contract closed at 3166, down 0.031% from the previous settlement; the 2511 contract closed at 2770, down 1.74%; the 2512 contract closed at 2920, down 1.52%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.12 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat the market as bearish on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options for options trading. Pay attention to weekly elimination data to track the medium - to - long - term fundamental inflection point [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of September, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase, with a continuous increase for 9 months [8]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In September, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.2 million, a decrease from August and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past three months have started to change farmers' mindset about expanding production capacity [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Hen Culling**: In the three weeks up to October 16, the national hen culling volumes were 20.32 million, 19.76 million, and 20.12 million, respectively. As of October 16, the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from last week and 2 days later than last month [17].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with egg futures experiencing a strong upward trend amid seasonal price rebounds and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close on September 15, the main contract for egg futures opened at 3091.00 yuan per 500 kg, reaching a high of 3197.00 yuan and a low of 3079.00 yuan, resulting in a price increase of 3.81% [1]. - The egg market is currently in a phase of oscillating upward movement, indicating a strong performance in the futures market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the age of culling chickens has decreased to 500 days, but it remains higher than previous cycle lows, indicating limited capacity reduction. The pace of culling is slowing down, and with the drop in temperatures in September, egg production rates are expected to recover [2]. - Demand is relatively weak, with school openings increasing demand from cafeterias, but low vegetable prices are suppressing household consumption. Additionally, the pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking by restaurants and food manufacturers is not meeting expectations [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - National Investment Trust Futures suggests monitoring the strength and sustainability of the current price rebound in the spot market, while also considering the potential for long positions in distant contracts and the exit of short positions in near-month contracts [1]. - Based on the leading index for culling chickens, it is anticipated that egg prices may continue to decline until March of next year, recommending a strategy of shorting near-month contracts on price rallies [2]. - In a high volatility environment, options selling is seen as more cost-effective, with initial strategies suggesting the construction of a wide straddle to generate premium income, transitioning to a bear spread as market conditions evolve [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the egg industry is bearish, with the supply rating being bearish, demand and profit being neutral, and strategies being bearish [2] Report's Core View - In the context of high egg production capacity, the traditional peak season this year is lackluster. The price of eggs is expected to decline until March next year, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is likely to continue [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - **Spot Price**: Involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [3][5] - **Egg Basis**: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [6][8] - **Egg Spread**: Focuses on the spreads between different egg futures contracts [9][10] - **Futures Institutional Net Position**: Examines the long - short ratios of institutional positions in the October and November egg futures contracts [12][13] Supply Analysis - **Laying Hen Inventory**: Covers laying hen inventory and its structure [15][16] - **Culling Situation**: Includes culling prices, average culling age, and the number of culled hens in sample enterprises [17][18] - **Replenishment Situation**: Analyzes the price and sales volume of commercial layer chicks [19][21] - **Large and Small Egg Sizes**: Considers the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of their price spreads [22][23] Demand Analysis - **Shipping Volume and Sales Volume**: Analyzes the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipping volume in main production areas [24][25] - **Inventory**: Covers the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - **Substitutes**: Examines the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and eggs and vegetables [29][31] Profit Analysis - **Breeding Cost**: Includes the feed cost per catty of eggs and the average price of layer feed [33][34] - **Breeding Profit**: Analyzes the egg - feed ratio, expected profit, and comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market is experiencing a decline, with the September contract closing at 3484 yuan per 500 kg, down 144 yuan from the previous week, due to high inventory levels and increased supply pressure [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The current inventory of laying hens is at a high level, leading to significant production pressure from newly added hens, resulting in ample egg supply [1] - Despite the high supply, there is a short-term easing of market supply pressure due to decreased egg production rates in some regions caused by ongoing high temperatures [1] - Terminal demand is gradually improving, and there remains a bullish sentiment among producers hoping for price increases [1] Market Strategy - The near-month contracts are experiencing weak adjustments due to bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory levels, while the far-month contracts show notable resilience [1] - A strategy of lightly entering long positions in far-month contracts is recommended [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for eggs experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 3564.00 yuan, closing at 3556.00 yuan with a rise of 2.15% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhongtai Futures suggests that the main egg contract is approaching a position limit, and a decrease in positions may lead to slight fluctuations in the market [2] - Everbright Futures indicates that the egg market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with stable prices in production areas and a slight decline in some sales areas [3] - Wenkang Futures notes that the near-month egg market remains under a logic of contango, recommending short positions at high prices due to stable supply and general market demand [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zhongtai Futures highlights that there is significant pressure from existing stock and a strong willingness to replace old hens, which may push supply pressure to the peak season around the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Everbright Futures mentions that the new supply volume is expected to continue increasing before August, with limited downward space for prices as many areas have seen prices drop to low levels [3] - Wenkang Futures points out that while the supply remains stable, the demand is generally weak, and the current high temperature and humidity are leading to a focus on ensuring egg quality [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a weak state. Supply pressure is increasing due to the release of new production capacity and slow elimination of backward capacity, while demand is limited after the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of feed is around 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is at a seasonal low. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds and mainly conduct JD reverse spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Review - The egg futures market shows a positive market structure, with the near - month contracts following the decline of the spot market and the far - month contracts oscillating weakly. The market is still in a weak state, and although there are bottom - fishing behaviors in the market, they are ineffective. The market maintains a structure of near - weak and far - strong [6]. 3.2 Spot Review - Last week, the egg spot market was generally stable, but there was an adjustment over the weekend, mainly led by the decline in northern sales areas. The production areas were relatively stable, while the egg prices in southern production areas, especially those near the plum - rain area, continued to decline. After the festival, the pulling effect of the sales areas on the spot market is expected to be weak, and the spot price will continue to search for a bottom [13]. 3.3 Supply - **New production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which is basically at a high level, and the new volume is higher than the historical average [18]. - **Elimination of production capacity**: From June to August 2025, the normal elimination of production capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [18]. - **Laying hen inventory**: The inventory of laying hens remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new production capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination is delayed, which may lead to an increase in phased supply [18]. 3.4 Elimination End - The elimination of backward production capacity has started but has not entered an accelerated phase. The price of eliminated chickens has fallen from a high level, the elimination volume has been increasing but is still at a four - year low, and the elimination age is around 520 days, showing an obvious downward trend [21]. 3.5 Other Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Seasonality**: The market is in a transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and a certain turnaround is expected to occur in mid - June [25]. - **Production area**: Currently, producers in the production areas are actively selling. With the increasing high - temperature weather, new chickens are constantly starting to lay eggs [25]. - **Consumption end**: The stocking is over, the overall demand is average, and the weather factor suppresses the egg price [25]. - **Substitute products**: Vegetable prices are about to enter a seasonally strong stage, which will support the egg price to some extent. Pork prices continue to weaken, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious. Other meat prices have shown a phased increase [27]. 3.6 Cost & Profit - **Cost end**: The price of corn is running at a high level, and the spot price of soybean meal is stable with a slight decline. The overall cost has oscillated and slightly decreased. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.4 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty [30]. - **Breeding profit**: The breeding profit has fallen below the feed cost and reached the comprehensive breeding cost. The seasonal weakness has not ended. The negative feedback of production capacity caused by profit losses is gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [31]. 3.7 Capital and Basis - **Capital**: Short - term funds continue to operate at a high level without signs of leaving the market, and short - selling funds have obvious suppression [34]. - **Basis**: The basis is running at a low level. Currently, the overall contract shows a premium structure, which will continue to suppress the market in the short term. The basis has a strengthening trend in the later stage, which depends on when the spot price stabilizes [36]. 3.8 Spread - The decline of the spot price suppresses the near - month contracts, and the strategy is mainly to conduct reverse spreads in the phased period [39].