智通财经APP获悉，美联储周三宣布再度下调联邦基金利率25个基点，为今年以来的第三次降息。尽管 符合市场此前对"鹰派式降息"的预期，但本次会议内部出现自2019年以来最严重的意见分歧，加之政策 声明措辞明显回撤，使市场普遍认为未来降息空间正在收窄，美联储恐将进入新的"观望期"。 本次利率决策以9比3通过，三名委员投下反对票，且来自政策光谱的两端：芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比与 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德主张按兵不动，而美联储理事米兰则要求一次性降息50个基点。这种罕见 的"分裂式反对"凸显出委员会内部对经济形势的判断出现显著分歧。 根据知情人士透露，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特仍是新任主席的热门人选，但财政部长贝森特正 主导更广泛的遴选工作，包括美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼、前理事沃什以及贝莱德高管Rieder也在候选名单 内。特朗普称提名可能在未来两周公布，也可能拖延至2026年初。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普继续公开施压美联储。他在白宫对记者表示，已于当天会见前美联储理事凯 文·沃什，并正在加快物色下一任美联储主席。他称不会要求候选人承诺降息，但强调"我们的利率应该 更低"，"我已经大致知道我想要找什么样的人"。 特朗普同 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again, likely for the last time in the near future, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision, which may lead to market volatility, especially concerning Chairman Powell's communication of the decision [2][3] - Investor confidence in further rate cuts next year has weakened, partly due to cautious remarks from Kevin Hassett, a potential successor to Powell, indicating he would resist political pressure for rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The market anticipates a "hawkish rate cut," where the Fed may lower rates while signaling limited future easing, with analysts suggesting three key ways to convey this message [3] - Rate futures indicate that investors have significantly reduced expectations for large rate cuts next year [4] - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is seen as crucial for assessing the sustainability of AI-related investments, with its importance compared to Nvidia's earnings report [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again, likely for the last time in the near future [1][2] - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but concerns about future easing remain [2][3] - Investors are increasingly viewing the upcoming rate cut as a "hawkish cut," indicating limited future easing potential [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Investor confidence in further rate cuts next year has weakened, partly due to cautious remarks from Kevin Hassett, a potential successor to Powell [3] - The market is focusing more on Oracle's earnings report than the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations around Oracle's performance being critical for assessing AI capital expenditure sustainability [4] - The implied volatility surrounding Oracle's earnings report has surpassed that of the Federal Reserve meeting, indicating heightened market interest [4] Group 3: Oracle Corporation Financials - Oracle's stock is currently trading at $220.58, with a slight decrease of 0.43% [5] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $628.83 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of 50.55 and a dividend yield of 0.85% [6] - Oracle's earnings report is anticipated to be a key indicator for the AI sector's capital spending trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].

Market Dynamics - The correlation between price movements and economic data/news has weakened again, with rising yields being the market's default choice in both the US and Eurozone [2] - Eurozone economic data is generally lackluster, while US data shows mixed signals, with consumer confidence assessments exceeding expectations but inflation expectations declining [2] - The US yield curve has generally risen by 3.7-3.9 basis points, moving further away from recent support levels, with the 2-year yield at 3.56% [2] - The market is maintaining a neutral stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, despite expectations for further easing [2] - Eurozone swap rates have also increased by over 3-4 basis points, with slight narrowing of the French-German bond yield spread [2] Federal Reserve Focus - Market attention remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations for a cautious stance and a potential 25 basis point rate cut to mitigate labor market risks [3] - The Fed's decision-making is still characterized by significant internal disagreement, with no hard data to support a change in the current policy stance [3] - Future guidance on potential easing will depend on labor market and CPI data updates following the Fed's decision [3] Hungary Credit Rating - Fitch has maintained Hungary's BBB credit rating but revised the outlook from stable to negative due to deteriorating public finance conditions [4] - The agency forecasts the deficit to widen from 5% this year to 5.6% by 2026, exceeding previous expectations [4] - Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 73.5% in 2024 to 74.6% by the end of 2027, with economic growth expected to stabilize around 2.3% next year [4] UK Employment Report - The S&P Global UK employment report indicates a continued decline in recruitment activity, with permanent job vacancies decreasing for the fifth consecutive month [5] - Temporary worker pay has slightly decreased, while permanent salary growth remains at historical lows due to increased labor supply and intense job competition [5] - The current environment is described as complex and variable, with pre-budget tension impacting temporary hiring [5]

【导读】美联储12月降息预期骤变 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，他并不支持美联储上一次的降息决定，不过对于12月货币政策会议的最佳行动方案，他目前仍未下 定决心。 卡什卡利周四在接受采访时表示："从我们获得的轶事实证和数据来看，经济活动的内在韧性超出了我的预期。"在他看来，这些因素都指向在美联储10月 会议上应该暂停降息。 卡什卡利说，此后公布的各项数据显示，经济基本是"延续此前的情况"。对于即将到来的12月的利率决议，他表示，"按后续数据的走向，我可以为降息 做出一套理据，也可以为按兵不动做出一套理据，我们还得再看"。 随着这番表态，卡什卡利加入了近期一批对12月是否有必要再次降息持怀疑态度、甚至明确反对降息的美联储官员行列。目前尚不清楚，这些人能否说服 足够多的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）有投票权的成员，因为仍有不少决策者对劳动力市场疲软更为担忧。 大家好，关注一下美联储降息的消息，市场预期，非常不明朗。 降息预期骤变 美联储官员对政策前景的谨慎表态促使交易员减少了对12月降息的押注，降息概率已跌破50%。不到一个月前，市场几乎已经完全消化了降息25个基点的 预期。 许多交易员指出，美 ...

美联储12月降息预期骤变 大家好，关注一下美联储降息的消息，市场预期，非常不明朗。 降息预期骤变 美联储官员对政策前景的谨慎表态促使交易员减少了对12月降息的押注，降息概率已跌破50%。不到一个月前，市场几乎已经完全消化了降息25个基点的 预期。 许多交易员指出，美联储12月再次降息的可能性正在降低，这很可能是引发抛售潮的导火索。截至发稿，欧洲股市全线跳水，美股盘前三大指数大幅下 挫。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，他并不支持美联储上一次的降息决定，不过对于12月货币政策会议的最佳行动方案，他目前仍未下 定决心。 卡什卡利说，此后公布的各项数据显示，经济基本是"延续此前的情况"。对于即将到来的12月的利率决议，他表示，"按后续数据的走向，我可以为降息 做出一套理据，也可以为按兵不动做出一套理据，我们还得再看"。 随着这番表态，卡什卡利加入了近期一批对12月是否有必要再次降息持怀疑态度、甚至明确反对降息的美联储官员行列。目前尚不清楚，这些人能否说服 足够多的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）有投票权的成员，因为仍有不少决策者对劳动力市场疲软更为担忧。 这位明尼阿波利斯联储行长今年并无利率决策投票权 ...