Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, marking the third rate cut of the year, amidst significant internal dissent within the committee [1] - The decision passed with a 9-3 vote, indicating notable divisions among members regarding the economic outlook, with some advocating for no change and others calling for a larger cut [1] - The Fed's statement included a cautious tone, suggesting future rate adjustments will depend on real-time data and economic conditions, a shift from previous signals of pausing rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of rate hikes, stating that the current rate is in a "broadly neutral range" and that the Fed is in a position to wait for economic developments [2] - Powell acknowledged that the decision to cut rates was very close, highlighting the dual risks of a weakening labor market and rising inflation due to tariffs [2] - The Fed will not pre-set a path for future rate cuts, emphasizing a patient approach rather than rushing into decisions [2] Group 3 - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones rising over 600 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experiencing gains [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, while non-dollar currencies rebounded, and gold prices increased significantly [3] - President Trump continued to pressure the Fed, criticizing Powell's decisions and suggesting that rates should be lower, while hinting at potential changes in Fed leadership [3][4] Group 4 - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, remains a leading candidate for the new Fed chair, with a broader selection process led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [4] - Other candidates include current Fed governors and executives from major financial institutions, with potential nominations expected within the next two weeks or possibly delayed until early 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again, likely for the last time in the near future, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision, which may lead to market volatility, especially concerning Chairman Powell's communication of the decision [2][3] - Investor confidence in further rate cuts next year has weakened, partly due to cautious remarks from Kevin Hassett, a potential successor to Powell, indicating he would resist political pressure for rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The market anticipates a "hawkish rate cut," where the Fed may lower rates while signaling limited future easing, with analysts suggesting three key ways to convey this message [3] - Rate futures indicate that investors have significantly reduced expectations for large rate cuts next year [4] - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is seen as crucial for assessing the sustainability of AI-related investments, with its importance compared to Nvidia's earnings report [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again, likely for the last time in the near future [1][2] - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but concerns about future easing remain [2][3] - Investors are increasingly viewing the upcoming rate cut as a "hawkish cut," indicating limited future easing potential [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Investor confidence in further rate cuts next year has weakened, partly due to cautious remarks from Kevin Hassett, a potential successor to Powell [3] - The market is focusing more on Oracle's earnings report than the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations around Oracle's performance being critical for assessing AI capital expenditure sustainability [4] - The implied volatility surrounding Oracle's earnings report has surpassed that of the Federal Reserve meeting, indicating heightened market interest [4] Group 3: Oracle Corporation Financials - Oracle's stock is currently trading at $220.58, with a slight decrease of 0.43% [5] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $628.83 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of 50.55 and a dividend yield of 0.85% [6] - Oracle's earnings report is anticipated to be a key indicator for the AI sector's capital spending trends [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].

Market Dynamics - The correlation between price movements and economic data/news has weakened again, with rising yields being the market's default choice in both the US and Eurozone [2] - Eurozone economic data is generally lackluster, while US data shows mixed signals, with consumer confidence assessments exceeding expectations but inflation expectations declining [2] - The US yield curve has generally risen by 3.7-3.9 basis points, moving further away from recent support levels, with the 2-year yield at 3.56% [2] - The market is maintaining a neutral stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, despite expectations for further easing [2] - Eurozone swap rates have also increased by over 3-4 basis points, with slight narrowing of the French-German bond yield spread [2] Federal Reserve Focus - Market attention remains on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations for a cautious stance and a potential 25 basis point rate cut to mitigate labor market risks [3] - The Fed's decision-making is still characterized by significant internal disagreement, with no hard data to support a change in the current policy stance [3] - Future guidance on potential easing will depend on labor market and CPI data updates following the Fed's decision [3] Hungary Credit Rating - Fitch has maintained Hungary's BBB credit rating but revised the outlook from stable to negative due to deteriorating public finance conditions [4] - The agency forecasts the deficit to widen from 5% this year to 5.6% by 2026, exceeding previous expectations [4] - Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 73.5% in 2024 to 74.6% by the end of 2027, with economic growth expected to stabilize around 2.3% next year [4] UK Employment Report - The S&P Global UK employment report indicates a continued decline in recruitment activity, with permanent job vacancies decreasing for the fifth consecutive month [5] - Temporary worker pay has slightly decreased, while permanent salary growth remains at historical lows due to increased labor supply and intense job competition [5] - The current environment is described as complex and variable, with pre-budget tension impacting temporary hiring [5]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly changed, with the probability now falling below 50% from nearly 95% a month ago, indicating increased uncertainty in the market [2][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the policy outlook, leading traders to reduce bets on a December rate cut [2]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari does not support the last rate cut decision and remains undecided about the best course of action for the December meeting, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience [6]. - Other officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, suggest maintaining current rates for a period to balance inflation and employment concerns, as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The declining probability of a December rate cut has triggered a sell-off in European and U.S. stock markets, with major indices experiencing significant drops [4]. - Analysts note unusual divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), complicating Chairman Powell's decision-making process [11]. Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The recent government shutdown has led to a lack of official economic data, increasing uncertainty among Fed officials about making decisions based on incomplete information [9]. - The return of government operations may allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the economic situation, although it remains uncertain if sufficient new data will be available before the December meeting [10]. Group 4: Potential Outcomes - A compromise solution for Powell could involve a "hawkish rate cut," where the committee agrees to cut rates but signals that further cuts are unlikely [12]. - Analysts believe Powell may be forced to choose between holding rates steady in December or cutting rates while indicating that the current cycle of rate cuts may be nearing its end [13].

美联储12月降息预期骤变 大家好，关注一下美联储降息的消息，市场预期，非常不明朗。 降息预期骤变 美联储官员对政策前景的谨慎表态促使交易员减少了对12月降息的押注，降息概率已跌破50%。不到一个月前，市场几乎已经完全消化了降息25个基点的 预期。 许多交易员指出，美联储12月再次降息的可能性正在降低，这很可能是引发抛售潮的导火索。截至发稿，欧洲股市全线跳水，美股盘前三大指数大幅下 挫。 明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡利表示，他并不支持美联储上一次的降息决定，不过对于12月货币政策会议的最佳行动方案，他目前仍未下 定决心。 卡什卡利说，此后公布的各项数据显示，经济基本是"延续此前的情况"。对于即将到来的12月的利率决议，他表示，"按后续数据的走向，我可以为降息 做出一套理据，也可以为按兵不动做出一套理据，我们还得再看"。 随着这番表态，卡什卡利加入了近期一批对12月是否有必要再次降息持怀疑态度、甚至明确反对降息的美联储官员行列。目前尚不清楚，这些人能否说服 足够多的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）有投票权的成员，因为仍有不少决策者对劳动力市场疲软更为担忧。 这位明尼阿波利斯联储行长今年并无利率决策投票权 ...