宏观经济分析报告 公共财政收支增速差收窄 -- 2025年1-7月财政数据点评 | | | 王哲语 SAC NO: S1150524070001 2025年8月20日 证券分析师 王哲语 022-23839051 wangzheyu@bhzq.com 周喜 022-28451972 SAC NO: S1150511010017 zhouxi@bhzq.com 2025年8月19日,财政部公布 2025年 1-7月财政收支情况: (1) 1-7月,全国一般公共预算收入 135839 亿元,同比增长 0.1%;全国一 般公共预算支出 160737 亿元,同比增长 3.4%。 (2)1-7月,全国政府性基金预算收入 23124亿元,同比下降 0.7%;全国政 府性基金预算支出 54287 亿元,同比增长 31.7%。 点评如下: ● 公共财政收入:个税收入增速持续较高 2025年 1-7月,公共财政收入同比由降转涨,其中,税收收入同比降幅收窄, 非税收入同比涨幅收窄,公共财政收入结构改善。税收收入中,增值税同比涨 幅较 1-6月略有扩大,单月增速有所下降,整体仍呈平稳趋势。企业所得税收 入同比降幅收窄,可能源于"反 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

事关债券利息征税，新政策来了！ 8月1日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》。 据国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛测算，随着旧债不断滚动续作，以及政府债和金融债的存量规模不断上 升(目前133万亿元)，后续利息增值税收入规模大致在千亿元左右。 从财政税制改革的视角看，政策正在从细节着手梳理当前的财税体系，将一些"不合时宜"的税收优惠剔 除，提高财政的收入能力，缓和财政的收支压力。宋雪涛称，从"金税四期"全面落地、到对居民境外收 入征税、再到对政府债利息收入征收增值税，都是完善税收制度的一环，也都能助力财政收支自平衡。 对债券市场整体影响有限 中泰证券固收首席分析师吕品点评称，对债券市场加征税收，本质上对市场并不算利好。存量债券的收 益没有增加，而新增债券的收益下降，最终大概率是以新券利率补偿式上行的方式来进行消化。整体来 说，该消息短期创造了一定的交易机会，但长期看，对债券市场持中性态度。 宋雪涛则表示，对8月8日后新发的国债和金融债利息收入征收3%—6%增值税，会推动新发债券发行利 率上行。静态视角来看，单独增税可能会带来10年期新券与旧券存在6—10个BP的利差空间。但这部分 成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in individual income tax (IIT) revenue, which is primarily attributed to improved tax collection efficiency and enforcement, rather than an increase in residents' disposable income [1][5][10] - In the first half of the year, individual income tax revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, while urban residents' per capita disposable income only increased by 4.7%, indicating a disparity between income growth and tax revenue [5][10] - The increase in individual income tax is mainly driven by high-income earners, with those earning over 1 million yuan annually contributing over 50% of the total IIT revenue, despite representing only 1% of the total filers [5][10] Group 2 - The divergence between value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax (CIT) is notable, with VAT revenue increasing by 2.8% while CIT revenue decreased by 1.9% in the first half of the year [12][13] - This divergence is attributed to "involution" competition leading to increased revenue without corresponding profit growth, as well as one-time factors affecting CIT collection early in the year [12][13] - The overall corporate income tax revenue was negatively impacted by a reduction in tax payments from central financial enterprises, which accounted for a significant portion of the decline [13] Group 3 - Non-tax revenue experienced a decline, with a year-on-year growth of only 3.7% in the first half of the year, and a negative growth rate observed since May [17][18] - The slowdown in non-tax revenue growth is linked to diminishing support from the monetization of state-owned assets and improvements in the business environment leading to reduced administrative fees and penalties [17][18] - The revenue from state-owned resource asset usage, which constitutes a significant portion of non-tax revenue, is expected to face challenges as easily monetizable assets have already been utilized [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the significant increase in individual income tax (IIT) is primarily due to improved tax collection efficiency and enforcement, while the divergence between value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax (CIT) is mainly influenced by one-time factors at the beginning of the year. Additionally, the negative shift in non-tax revenue reflects improvements in the business environment [1][3][11]. Group 2 - In the first half of the year, national tax revenue reached 9.29 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, with VAT, CIT, and consumption tax growth rates at 2.8%, -1.9%, and 1.7% respectively. Despite weak growth in overall tax revenue, IIT saw a notable increase of 8% year-on-year [3][6]. - The growth in IIT is not aligned with improvements in residents' disposable income, which only increased by 4.7%. High-income earners contribute significantly to IIT, with those earning over 1 million yuan accounting for over 50% of the total IIT collected [6][10]. - The increase in IIT is attributed to several factors, including the full implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV, which enhances tax collection efficiency through data integration and analysis, and the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) for overseas income reporting [8][10]. - The rise in stock transfers and employee stock incentives, particularly in high-income cities like Beijing and Shanghai, has also contributed to the increase in IIT. In the first half of the year, Beijing's IIT revenue grew by 7.8% [10]. - The growth in dividend income from listed companies, with a total dividend payout of nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, has further supported the increase in IIT [10]. Group 3 - The divergence between VAT and CIT is unusual, with VAT growing by 2.8% while CIT declined by 1.9%. This divergence is attributed to "involution" competition leading to increased revenue without corresponding profit growth, as well as one-time factors affecting CIT collection early in the year [11][12]. - The decline in non-tax revenue, which reached 2.27 trillion yuan with a year-on-year growth of only 3.7%, is primarily due to reduced support from the monetization of state-owned assets and improvements in the business environment leading to lower administrative fees and penalties [15][16][17].

Core Viewpoint - A nationwide self-inspection and tax payment initiative targeting domestic residents' investment income from Hong Kong and U.S. stocks has been launched, focusing on high-net-worth individuals and requiring them to report and pay taxes on overseas income from 2022 to 2024 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Legal Basis and Tax Types - The legal basis for taxing domestic residents' overseas income has been clearly established, requiring individuals to report overseas investment income, interest, capital gains, and employment income [2][6]. - The tax types involved include capital gains tax and dividend tax, both subject to a 20% rate, with capital gains from investments via the Hong Kong Stock Connect being exempt from personal income tax until the end of 2027 [2][9]. Group 2: Impact and Industry Response - The frequency of tax payment notifications has significantly increased since May, expanding from first-tier cities to economically active regions, primarily targeting residents who invested through overseas brokers [3][4]. - The current round of tax notifications mainly affects high-asset individuals, with required payments ranging from over 100,000 to several million yuan, highlighting a previously weak enforcement of tax regulations on overseas investment income [4][6]. - Despite the notifications, industry insiders indicate that the overall impact on brokerage firms is manageable, as many had already ceased new business with mainland residents due to regulatory definitions of non-compliance [2][11]. Group 3: Tax Calculation and Controversies - Tax on capital gains is calculated based on the difference between selling and buying prices, with a 20% tax applied to the profit, while dividend tax involves a 20% total tax burden after accounting for U.S. withholding taxes [9][10]. - There are ongoing discussions regarding the taxation of losses and gains over multiple years, with investors expressing dissatisfaction over the requirement to pay taxes in profitable years despite no overall gain [10]. Group 4: Shift to Hong Kong Stock Connect - The tax policy has prompted some investors to consider shifting their focus to the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which offers significant tax advantages by exempting capital gains tax until 2027 [11][12]. - However, concerns remain regarding the limited range of investment options available through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which may not cover all desired stocks and derivatives [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of "overseas investment tax supplementation," emphasizing that this is not a legal term but rather a reflection of strengthened tax compliance and the economic downturn, leading to increased scrutiny and pressure on investors [5][6][8]. Group 1: Background and Drivers - The trend of tax supplementation is driven by the transition from "loose management" to "refined governance" in tax administration, where previous gray areas for tax avoidance are being eliminated [5][6]. - The implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" system and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) has enhanced the ability of tax authorities to monitor overseas investments, leading to a perception of increased tax burden among companies [5][6][8]. - Economic downturns have intensified compliance cost pressures, as companies face additional expenses related to tax supplementation and penalties, which can threaten their survival [6][8]. Group 2: Tax Compliance and Obligations - Chinese tax residents are obligated to pay taxes on global income, including overseas investments, with the recent focus on capital gains, dividends, and interest from foreign investments [11][12][17]. - The tax rate for capital gains from overseas stock sales is set at 20%, with specific rules for dividends and interest income, requiring additional payments if taxes have already been withheld abroad [11][12][17]. - The tax authorities have begun notifying investors in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks to self-check and supplement taxes for the period from 2022 to 2024, indicating a proactive approach to tax compliance [11][12][17]. Group 3: Risk of Non-Compliance - The article outlines behaviors that could lead to being classified as "malicious tax evasion," including intentional concealment of overseas income and falsifying transaction records [14][16]. - Taxpayers can avoid penalties by voluntarily declaring and paying owed taxes before receiving a notice from tax authorities, but failure to comply can result in significant fines and back taxes [16][17][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining proper documentation and compliance to mitigate risks associated with overseas investments and tax obligations [24][27][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The continuation of the tax supplementation trend will depend on the effectiveness of tax education and compliance measures implemented by the government, as well as the enforcement of long-term policies [32]. - As tax compliance becomes a competitive factor for businesses, the article suggests that companies must adapt to a landscape where tax governance is increasingly scrutinized [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in personal income tax (PIT) revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% from January to May, surpassing the overall tax revenue growth rate of -1.6% [1] - In May, the PIT growth accelerated to 12.3% compared to April, indicating a strong performance among major tax categories [1] - Analysts attribute the high growth in PIT to a combination of economic recovery, enhanced tax administration, wage adjustments, and dividend income [1][3] Group 2 - The marginal recovery in residents' income is a primary driver of the PIT increase, with urban residents' disposable income growing by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1, a 0.3 percentage point increase from Q4 of the previous year [3] - The active second-hand housing market in several cities has also contributed to the rise in PIT revenue [3][4] - The implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV system has strengthened tax collection efforts, utilizing big data and artificial intelligence to monitor tax compliance [7][8] Group 3 - Wage adjustments and dividend income are significant factors influencing the PIT growth, with wages and dividends accounting for nearly 80% of PIT revenue [8] - The potential for continued high PIT growth in the second half of the year is supported by the expectation of further wage adjustments and stable dividend policies [8] - Despite potential economic uncertainties and a cooling real estate market, the likelihood of PIT experiencing negative growth remains low [10]

Core Insights - Recent developments in tax collection regarding personal overseas income have gained significant attention, with various tax authorities in regions like Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hubei intensifying their scrutiny and enforcement actions [2][3] Group 1: Tax Collection Measures - Tax authorities are implementing a systematic inspection process driven by big data, utilizing a "Five-Step Work Method" to enhance risk management and compliance [3] - The approach includes steps such as reminders, corrective actions, interviews, investigations, and public exposure to ensure thorough oversight of overseas income reporting [3] - Tax authorities are leveraging big data to identify potential non-compliance by analyzing cross-border financial flows and taxpayer records [3][4] Group 2: Information Transparency - The implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) has facilitated the exchange of overseas financial account information, enhancing transparency for Chinese tax residents [4] - This exchange includes details on bank deposits, securities investments, and income from various financial assets, which are now accessible to domestic tax authorities [4] - Upgraded data inspection technologies are improving the efficiency of tax collection on overseas income by integrating various data sources [4] Group 3: Focus on Overseas Investment Income - As more Chinese residents engage in overseas investments, capital gains and income from these investments have become a focal point for personal income tax collection [5] - Tax authorities are conducting targeted audits on high-income individuals who may have significant unreported overseas income from stock trading and other investments [5] Group 4: Challenges in Tax Residency Determination - The complexity of determining tax residency status arises from the diverse living and working conditions of individuals, especially those with significant cross-border activities [6] - Disputes may occur regarding the application of tax treaties and the understanding of tax exemptions for income earned abroad [7] Group 5: Anti-Avoidance Measures - The application of anti-avoidance provisions allows tax authorities to adjust tax liabilities for unreasonable business arrangements, but the lack of clear standards complicates enforcement [9] - The need for professional tax advisory services is emphasized to navigate the complexities of overseas income tax compliance and to mitigate potential disputes with tax authorities [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing trend of investors looking towards international markets for asset diversification and wealth preservation, while highlighting the importance of compliance due to the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) [2][4]. Group 1: CRS Implementation and Global Tax Compliance - The CRS facilitates automatic exchange of financial account tax information between jurisdictions, requiring financial institutions to identify tax residents and report relevant account details to tax authorities [4]. - As of 2024, 111 jurisdictions, including well-known tax havens like the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Monaco, and Panama, have announced their commitment to implement CRS [4]. Group 2: Legal and Compliance Insights - The article introduces a roadshow featuring lawyer Dai Pengfei, who will provide in-depth analysis on tax compliance risks and management under the backdrop of global taxation [5][6]. - The roadshow will cover topics such as the identification of "Chinese tax residents" under global taxation, current domestic tax violation penalties, and compliance recommendations for asset allocation [9]. Group 3: Legal Expertise and Firm Background - Dai Pengfei is a seasoned lawyer with extensive experience in financial regulations, tax law, and compliance, serving as a legal advisor for multiple private equity funds [10]. - The law firm, Zhixin Law Firm, established in 2009, specializes in financial and commercial legal services, boasting a team of experienced lawyers and a commitment to providing high-quality legal support [11].