研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 北方华创(002371) 超高深宽比刻蚀助力 3D NAND 扩产 证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 457.46 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.24 | / 7.24 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）3,314 | / 3,312 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 468.00 / 318.60 | | 资产负债率(%) | 51.0% | | 市盈率 | 43.27 | | 第一大股东 | 北京七星华电科技集团 | | 有限责任公司 | | l 投资要点 预计中国大陆 2026 至 2028 年间设备支出将达 940 亿美元。 受益于晶圆厂区域化趋势以及数据中心和边缘设备中 AI 芯片需求 激增，SEMI 预计 2025 年全球 300mm 晶圆厂设备支出将首次超过 1,00 ...

Core Insights - The company has achieved full product coverage in various sectors including consumer electronics, industrial, automotive electronics, and communications with its SLC NAND Flash products [1] - Major overseas manufacturers are shifting their focus towards 3D NAND and moving away from 2D NAND, leading to a supply shortage in the 2D NAND market [1] - The company plans to develop higher storage density products in the 2D NAND sector but has no plans for 3D NAND products [1] - The niche DRAM market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with price increases expected to continue over the next two quarters and maintain relatively high price levels in subsequent quarters of next year [1]

Core Insights - Huayuan Securities report highlights that Zhongwei Company has strong technical barriers and leads in domestic substitution of core products [1] - The etching equipment sector is projected to have over 4,500 installed CCP etching platforms and nearly 1,200 installed ICP etching platforms by H1 2025 [1] - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to exceed $100 billion, reaching $109 billion in 2024, with etching equipment accounting for 22% of the market in 2022 [1] Industry Overview - The global semiconductor etching equipment market is forecasted to reach $25.61 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029, driven by AI, 5G, and 3D NAND technologies [1] - The domestic market in China is witnessing a rapid increase in the localization rate of semiconductor equipment [1] Comparative Analysis - Comparable companies in the industry, such as ChipSource Micro and Tuojing Technology, have an average valuation of 102.36 times for 2025 [1] - Given Zhongwei Company's leading position in etching equipment, a "buy" rating is maintained [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leading technology in core equipment and solid growth foundation through R&D and team development [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in high-end semiconductor equipment in China, with its core products including plasma etching equipment, MOCVD equipment, and thin film deposition equipment, showcasing strong technical capabilities [6][14]. - The company has a highly educated and international core team, with significant R&D investment, which is expected to drive future growth [7][24]. - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant growth opportunities in the etching equipment segment driven by advancements in AI, 5G, and 3D NAND technologies [8][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on the independent R&D and industrialization of high-end semiconductor equipment, having established a comprehensive equipment system covering integrated circuits and the broader semiconductor industry [18][41]. Market Performance - As of November 2025, the company's stock price is 306.10 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 191.66 billion yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.88%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 706 million yuan, up 36.62% [31][38]. - The company’s R&D expenses reached 1.116 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 96.65% year-on-year [31][35]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.325 billion yuan, 3.144 billion yuan, and 4.221 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.90%, 35.23%, and 34.27% [9][12]. Competitive Position - The company has established a strong competitive position in the etching equipment market, with over 4,500 installed units of CCP etching equipment and nearly 1,200 units of ICP etching equipment as of mid-2025 [6][44]. - The company is also a leading supplier of MOCVD equipment for GaN-based applications, with significant market share in the high-end Mini-LED display epitaxial wafer market [6][52]. Industry Outlook - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach $123.1 billion by 2025, with the etching equipment segment projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.6% from 2024 to 2029 [60][67]. - The domestic market in China is rapidly increasing its localization rate for semiconductor equipment, providing substantial growth opportunities for the company [8][67].

Summary of the Conference Call for 富创精密 Company Overview - **Company**: 富创精密 (Fuchuang Precision) - **Industry**: Semiconductor components and gas transmission systems Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, 富创精密 achieved significant revenue growth, with quarterly revenue surpassing 1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24% [3] - Cumulative revenue from January to September increased by 18% year-on-year [3] - Gross margin has declined due to increased orders from Shenzhen clients, which have lower margins, and a shift in product structure where gas products rose from 28% to 44% of total sales, with gas cabinets accounting for 80% of the gas business [3][4] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its strategic focus towards advanced processes, collaborating with key domestic clients to develop products, moving from an OEM model to participating in R&D [2][5] - Aiming to maintain revenue share while preserving gross margins, the company is committed to growing alongside its Shenzhen clients [5] Profit Outlook - Profit is expected to improve in 2026, with a potential profit inflection point around 2030, driven by national advanced process projects and a reduction in operating expenses [2][6] - The company is actively working on cost optimization, with a notable decrease in period expenses, including a one-time consulting fee of 30 million RMB and inventory write-downs exceeding 90 million RMB [6] Investment in 康帕 - 富创精密 holds a 26% stake in 康帕, which has not yet been consolidated into financial reports, but business synergies are already evident [2][7] - 康帕, a major gas transmission system supplier, has optimized gas cabinet costs, contributing to a 3% improvement in cost optimization in Q3 [7] Core Component Business - The core component business, including engine disks and heating disks, is progressing rapidly in terms of orders and mass production, laying a foundation for future profitability [2][8] - The company is adopting a major client strategy, providing one-stop services tailored to client needs, which differs from competitors [8] Production Capacity and International Expansion - The company is expanding production capacity in Beijing, Nantong, and internationally to meet future market demand [12] - The new Singapore factory has secured two overseas clients but is currently operating at high costs, expected to break even by 2026 [14] Depreciation Trends - Fixed assets are projected to peak at 400 million RMB by the end of 2025, with depreciation rates expected to gradually decline starting in 2026 [15][16] M&A Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of a robust management model for scaling in the semiconductor component industry, with a focus on acquiring companies with strong profitability [17] Additional Important Insights - The transition to 3D NAND storage technology is increasing demands for components, leading to significant market growth opportunities [11] - The company is actively involved in joint development with clients to meet advanced process requirements, focusing on collaborative solutions rather than traditional sales relationships [10]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing significant internal differentiation, and merely being labeled as "domestic" does not guarantee success. Companies must possess both offensive and defensive capabilities to thrive in this competitive landscape [1][6][57]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is heavily influenced by policy and technological breakthroughs, leading to varying growth potentials among companies [6]. - Companies that survive must be "dual-capable monsters," excelling in both new technology development and existing product iteration to maintain stable cash flow [6][57]. - The demand in the semiconductor market is split into two distinct tracks: advanced processes driven by a "technology arms race" and mature processes driven by massive chip demand from sectors like electric vehicles and IoT [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment in semiconductor equipment and materials is fundamentally about investing in the underlying infrastructure of the digital world, which offers strong certainty and sustainability [13]. - The investment landscape is layered, with higher technical barriers and profit margins in upstream sectors (EDA/IP, equipment) compared to downstream (design, manufacturing) [14]. - The real investment opportunities lie in the growth of domestic supply chains, particularly in critical components like RF power supplies and specialty ceramics [16][34]. Group 3: Market Trends - The global equipment market is dominated by major players like AMAT, ASML, and LAM, with a concentration ratio (CR3) exceeding 50%, indicating significant challenges for domestic players [33]. - China's semiconductor market is growing at a rate higher than the global average, driven by internal demand and policy support, making it a unique investment opportunity [36]. - The demand for advanced logic chips (≤28nm) is expected to grow rapidly, while mature logic (>28nm) represents the largest incremental opportunity, particularly in automotive and industrial control applications [40][41]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical pressures are creating a survival space for domestic manufacturers, with sanctions leading to a "stair-step" replacement rhythm, opening new opportunities for local firms [10][45]. - The timeline of sanctions indicates a systematic and long-term approach to containment, emphasizing the necessity for domestic substitution as a survival strategy [45]. Group 5: Challenges and Risks - The complexity and high costs associated with semiconductor manufacturing create significant barriers to entry, with any misstep potentially leading to substantial losses [20]. - The rapid pace of technological iteration requires high R&D investments, with projected R&D expenditures in the equipment sector exceeding 10 billion in 2024, reflecting a 42.5% increase [47]. - The materials sector faces high certification barriers and a lower domestic production rate, making it more challenging to achieve self-sufficiency compared to equipment [50][53].

Core Viewpoint - Onto Innovation (ONTO) has experienced a stock decline of 12.8% over the past month, which is less severe than the Nanotechnology industry's decline of 14.2%, amidst escalating trade tensions and tariff issues affecting overall market performance [1]. Company Performance - ONTO stock closed at $120.47, which is 50% below its 52-week high of $238.93 reached on July 16, 2024, indicating potential investment opportunities or risks of a value trap [4]. - The company has shown strong performance throughout 2024, achieving its sixth consecutive quarter of growth, particularly in the AI-driven semiconductor packaging market, which saw a 180% year-over-year revenue increase [8]. - Advanced nodes have been a significant driver of revenue growth, with expectations of continued momentum into 2025, particularly in logic and memory segments [9]. Growth Drivers - The transition to 3D NAND technology is expanding Onto's market opportunities, supported by the launch of innovative products in 2024 [7]. - Demand for Iris film metrology has risen, with annual revenues approaching $100 million, and continued demand is expected in 2025 [10]. - Power revenues increased by 10% in 2024, driven by the development of advanced gallium nitride-based power semiconductors, which are gaining traction due to their efficiency [11]. Financial Projections - Management anticipates total revenues for the first quarter of 2025 to be in the range of $260-$274 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share projected between $1.40 and $1.54 [13]. - A seasonal dip is expected in the first quarter, followed by growth in subsequent quarters, aligning with trends observed in 2024 [12]. Challenges - Non-GAAP operating expenses rose to $68.4 million, a 21.4% increase year-over-year, primarily due to higher R&D investments, which could impact profitability if revenue growth stalls [14]. - The uncertain macroeconomic environment, geopolitical tensions, and intense competition pose risks to the semiconductor industry and ONTO's performance [15]. - ONTO's stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price/earnings multiple of 18.03X compared to the industry's 3.70X, indicating potential valuation concerns [17].