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通信行业周观点:Scale-up光互连提速,商业航天产业节奏或加快-20251216
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-16 04:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9]. Core Insights - The communication sector has shown significant growth, with a 5.94% increase in the 50th week of 2025, leading the Yangtze primary industry rankings. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 80.55% [2][4]. - Demand for optical chips, crucial for AI optical interconnects, remains strong, with overseas capacity expansion focusing on high-margin EML products. The commercialization pace of OCS and CPO is accelerating, driven by the scaling of AI clusters, which will further boost optical module demand [2][7]. - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a period of intensified activity, with core components like antennas and power supplies expected to see increased usage, enhancing their anti-deflationary characteristics [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 50th week of 2025, the communication sector outperformed with a 5.94% increase, ranking first among primary industries. Since the beginning of the year, it has surged by 80.55% [2][4]. - Notable stock performances include Dekeli (+43.7%), Zhongci Electronics (+40.7%), and Huamao Technology (+28.5%) for gains, while Heertai (-12.6%), ZTE (-10.0%), and Nanjing Panda (-8.0%) faced declines [4]. Optical Chip Demand - Optical chips are in high demand, with Lumentum reporting that its EML production accounts for 50%-60% of the global market. The company has sold out its products until 2026 and has significant bookings for 2027, maintaining high prices [5]. - The company plans to increase EML capacity by approximately 40% over the next three quarters, although a 20% supply-demand gap currently exists, expected to widen to 30% by mid-2026 [5]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a higher catalytic density, with potential applications in space data centers and a focus on rocket reusability tests expected to accelerate industry activity [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high elasticity and anti-deflation characteristics, particularly in core components like antennas and power supplies [6]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended operators include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. For optical modules, suggested companies are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Shijia Photon, with attention to Tai Chen Guang and Yuanjie Technology [7]. - Other recommendations include Invech for liquid cooling, and Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Zhongtian Technology for hollow-core fibers [7].
中信证券:AI光互联大有可为 头部厂商优势显著
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-29 01:32
Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI large models and applications relies on continuous investment in computing power infrastructure, with high-performance, high-bandwidth, and low-latency networks being crucial for the performance upgrade of computing clusters [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Optical interconnection technology is expected to experience significant growth opportunities driven by the dual factors of increased penetration of Scale up networks and the value enhancement of Scale out networks [1] - The increasing demands for manufacturers' R&D capabilities, production capacity, and material delivery, as well as the requirements for new technology layouts, are highlighting the advantages of leading manufacturers in the market [1] Group 2: Company Outlook - There is optimism regarding the development potential of domestic optical communication leading companies [1] - The communication industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [1]