来源：环球时报 1月6日，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在美国拉斯维加斯消费电子展演讲有三个要点，算力暴涨、砸掉智驾门槛、 物理人工智能（AI）来临，为当下的AI浪潮再掀新的波澜。他在演讲中还展示了机器人"虚拟训练、真 实行动"新模式和自动驾驶的"主动解释"能力。 对大众而言，乐观者听到的是，当AI能更好建模物理世界的运动与因果关系，当海量机器人逐步走进 现实生活，当虚拟世界开始反哺现实世界，超级智能时代似乎正在加速逼近。悲观者则因此陷入更深层 的生存与发展焦虑。OpenAI总裁奥特曼曾预言，当超级智能成为现实，"它的诞生将是人类历史上最重 大的事件，也可能成为最后一件"。这种表述已经不仅是风险意识，更带有浓重的末世色彩。 科学自诞生以来，便以祛魅和去神性为方法论基础。三百年的科学史培养了人类对自身理性的信心，也 让我们逐渐习惯于认为演化过程可以被理解和管理。当AI的发展速度陡然加快，这种信心受到挑战， 许多人对"失控"的焦虑随之放大，其中相当一部分被投射为对超级智能觉醒与反叛的想象。 面对未知，再宏大的想象往往也会显得贫乏。正如科幻小说《三体》所描绘的，人类在面对三体文明时 曾以庞大的舰队自信迎敌，却在水滴攻击面前瞬间 ...

以前不懂技术的人做产品都有一个局限，那就是缺个程序员。 准确说，是缺一个有耐心、没脾气、好说话、干活快、不排斥需求变更的程序员。 当然，这种期望在现实中可遇不可求。不过，现在似乎可以了。 不是程序员变了，而是 AI 编程更强了。 这么说吧，现在 AI Coding 在大多数新建项目上的表现已经一定程度上超过真人了，而且这种进化速度还在加快。 Midjourney 创始人 David 前阵子公开说，自己圣诞节的编码项目比过去 10 年加起来还多。 他还说，虽然能感到局限，但知道一切都不再一样了。 马斯克在 X 上连发两条内容，直接放话 2026 就是奇点之年。 他们的表达其实都指向同一个锚点，Claude Code。 我之前写文章分享过 Claude Code 的用法和能力，也做过一些案例，感兴趣的可以去我历史文章里搜一下。 最近 Claude Code 在国外很火，而我身边一些喜欢 AI Coding 的朋友也大多用它来完成编码和项目创作。 如果在技术领域谈「奇点」，是指技术增长进入不可控、不可逆的指数级爆发阶段。 过去我们会用「摩尔定律」来框定计算机的发展规律，集成电路上可容纳的晶体管数量大约每 18~24 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the imminent arrival of a technological singularity driven by advancements in AI, particularly through systems like GPT-4 and o3, which are expected to significantly enhance productivity and quality of life [3][10] - It emphasizes the transformative potential of AI in various sectors, predicting that by 2030, individuals will be able to accomplish far more than they could in 2020, marking a significant leap in capabilities [5][6] Group 1: AI Advancements and Impact - AI has already surpassed human capabilities in many areas, leading to increased efficiency and productivity [3][10] - The emergence of cognitive agents and advanced systems is anticipated in the coming years, fundamentally changing programming and creative processes [4][10] - By 2030, the amount of work one individual can accomplish is expected to exceed that of 2020, indicating a transformative shift in workforce capabilities [5][6] Group 2: Societal Changes and Adaptation - The 2030s are predicted to be a period of unprecedented change, with both familiar and novel experiences coexisting [6][7] - As digital intelligence becomes ubiquitous, society will adapt to new expectations and capabilities, leading to a redefinition of work and creativity [7][10] - The article suggests that while some jobs may disappear, new opportunities will arise, leading to overall societal wealth and innovation [11][13] Group 3: Self-Acceleration and Economic Value - The efficiency of scientists has reportedly increased two to three times, enabling faster AI research and development [9][10] - The economic value generated by AI is expected to drive continuous investment in computational infrastructure, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of innovation [9][10] - Automation in data center production will lead to a significant reduction in the cost of intelligence, making it as affordable as electricity [11][14] Group 4: Governance and Ethical Considerations - Addressing alignment issues in AI systems is crucial to ensure they understand and execute human intentions effectively [13] - The article highlights the importance of making superintelligence widely accessible and not overly concentrated among individuals or corporations [13] - A global dialogue on societal consensus regarding AI governance is deemed essential for maximizing benefits while minimizing risks [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents the idea that the "singularity moment" of AI has arrived in a gentle and gradual manner, rather than through explosive breakthroughs, highlighting the ongoing transformation in how knowledge is acquired and creativity is expressed [1][2]. Group 1: AI Development and Impact - Humanity has crossed the "event horizon" towards digital superintelligence, with systems like GPT-4 and o3 already surpassing human intelligence in many aspects, significantly enhancing user productivity [2][3]. - By 2025, intelligent agents with real cognitive abilities are expected to emerge, fundamentally changing programming methods, with systems capable of original insights anticipated by 2026 and robots executing real-world tasks by 2027 [2][3]. - The demand for creativity and tools is increasing, and by 2030, individuals will be able to accomplish far more than in 2020, leading to significant disruptions and new sources of income [3][4]. Group 2: Future Projections - The 2030s may not drastically differ from today in terms of human experiences, but they are likely to usher in an unprecedented era characterized by abundant intelligence and energy, which have historically limited human progress [4][5]. - AI's ability to enhance research efficiency by 2 to 3 times is noted, with the potential for rapid advancements in AI research itself, leading to a different pace of progress [5][6]. - The automation of data center construction and the potential for robots to manufacture other robots could drastically change the speed of technological advancement [5][6]. Group 3: Societal Changes and Adaptation - While some job types may disappear, global wealth is expected to grow rapidly, allowing for new policies and social contracts to be considered [6][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that society will adapt to new tools and desires, leading to improved living standards and the creation of remarkable new things [6][7]. - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing AI's technical safety and social governance issues, ensuring equitable access to superintelligence and its economic benefits [7][8]. Group 4: OpenAI's Role and Vision - OpenAI is positioned as a "superintelligence research company," with a mission to navigate the journey towards superintelligence, which is seen as increasingly attainable [9][10]. - The industry is collectively building a "digital brain" that will be highly personalized and accessible, with the only limitation being the scarcity of good ideas [8][9].