AIPress.com.cn报道 当大模型不再仅仅满足于预测下一个汉字，而是试图预测世界的下一个状态时，人工智能才真正开始理解因果，触摸现实。这是未来，也是2026年AI即 将发生的变化。 本文结合智源研究院提出的AI十大趋势预测，梳理了AI在2026的将有之变，相信能够为我们勾勒了一幅从虚拟走向实体、从单体走向群智的未来图景。 图说：智源研究院 2026十大AI技术趋势 趋势一：世界模型确立认知新范式 行业对于智能的理解，正经历一场静水流深的转变，共识正从单一的语言模型，转向能够理解物理规律的多模态世界模型。 Next-State Prediction（NSP）范式的确立，标志着AI不再仅仅满足于在文本中预测下一个词汇，它开始尝试预测世界的下一个状态。 正如智源悟界所验证的那样，当机器掌握了时空连续性与因果关系，它便跨越了感知的边界，触碰到了真正的认知与规划。 趋势二：具身智能的产业"出清"与落地 趋势五：新"BAT"格局下的垂直突围 C端超级应用的"All in One"入口成为兵家必争之地。海外有OpenAI与Google引领风骚，国内字节、阿里、蚂蚁等巨头亦依托生态积极布局。 我们可以看到，蚂蚁推出的 ...

蔡磊介绍道，渐冻症"AI科研大脑"已经在高效运转，将科研速度提升了数十倍乃至上百倍。"目前我们 已经完成了近4万篇渐冻症核心文献的系统性梳理，并基于此，对数百个有潜力的候选药物进行排序， 正联合全球的科学家们加速验证。" 日前，渐冻症患者、京东前副总裁蔡磊进行了本年度首次直播，他在直播中用眼控打字，文字随后被语 音播放出来，"身体在渐冻症的侵蚀下不断失去功能。"11月25日，蔡磊用文字回复南都N视频记者称， 他希望通过这次直播向大家传递一种韧性精神，告诉大家他还在坚持战斗，"只要身体状况还有一丝允 许，我都会雷打不动投入科研探索和各方沟通。" 蔡磊直播视频截图。 "很遗憾由于病情持续发展，我现在已经很难亲自参与直播，甚至连简单的连线互动都变得十分艰 难。"蔡磊在他今年的首次直播中表示，他的身体在渐冻症的侵蚀下不断失去功能。 蔡磊用文字回复南都记者称，尽管现在完全无法说话，全身动弹不得，但他始终坚持用眼睛和耳朵工 作。他表示，接下来仍然会将全部精力集中在科研工作。"与渐冻症抗争这6年来，只要我的身体状况还 有一丝允许，我都会雷打不动地投入科研探索和各方沟通，推动各个研究管线的进展。" 采写：南都N视频记者 林诗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of AI scientists, such as the one developed by Sakana AI, represents a significant shift in the scientific research landscape, transforming AI from a mere assistant to a collaborative research partner capable of generating research ideas, designing experiments, and writing papers [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Role of AI Scientists - AI scientists are redefining the traditional role of scientists, which has historically involved hypothesis generation, experimental design, and data analysis [3][4]. - The responsibilities of scientists are becoming more specialized, with AI handling data processing and experimental execution, allowing human scientists to focus on interpreting results and proposing new research directions [4][5]. Group 2: Types and Progress of AI Scientists - AI scientists can be categorized into two main types: augmented research assistants and autonomous scientific discoverers [5][8]. - Augmented assistants, like Stanford's Virtual Lab, support human scientists by integrating cross-disciplinary knowledge and generating experimental ideas [5][6]. - Autonomous discoverers, such as Future House's Robin, can independently conduct research from hypothesis generation to experimental validation, marking a significant advancement in AI's role in scientific discovery [8]. Group 3: Advantages of AI Scientists - AI scientists offer significant advantages in speed, scale, and interdisciplinary innovation [9][12]. - Speed advantage allows research cycles to be reduced from years to hours, exemplified by Sakana AI's system completing the research process in mere hours [9]. - Scale advantage enables AI to handle millions of tasks simultaneously, expanding the scope of scientific exploration beyond human limitations [12][13]. - AI scientists facilitate cross-disciplinary breakthroughs by integrating knowledge from various fields, overcoming traditional academic silos [16][17]. Group 4: Challenges Faced by AI Scientists - The "black box" nature of AI presents challenges in explainability and causal reasoning, which are critical in scientific research [18][19]. - Concerns about the reliability of AI-generated results arise from discrepancies between simulated outcomes and real-world experiments [20][22]. - The rise of AI scientists necessitates a shift in the skill set required for researchers, emphasizing the need for professionals who can work alongside AI technologies [23][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The integration of AI into scientific research is an irreversible trend, with a significant majority of researchers believing AI will become a crucial part of their work by 2027 [25]. - The collaboration between AI and human scientists is expected to enhance the efficiency and breadth of scientific discoveries, ultimately accelerating humanity's ability to solve complex problems [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Kosmos, an AI scientist capable of conducting extensive research autonomously, achieving results equivalent to six months of human work in just one day, and demonstrating high reproducibility in scientific findings [2][24]. Group 1: Kosmos Capabilities - Kosmos can work continuously for up to 12 hours, reading 1,500 papers and writing 42,000 lines of code in a single research session [2][6]. - It has successfully made seven genuine discoveries across various fields, including metabolomics and neuroscience, some of which were previously unpublished by humans [4][6]. - The AI has a reproducibility rate of 79% for its research results, indicating a high level of reliability [2]. Group 2: Research Process - Kosmos operates through a structured world model that allows for real-time information sharing between data analysis and literature search modules [20]. - The research process involves a "cyclic iteration + information sharing" model, where Kosmos can run up to 200 iterations to refine its findings [21]. - Each research cycle produces results that are automatically compiled into a report, with all data and sources clearly cited [21]. Group 3: Research Findings - Kosmos has replicated an unpublished finding regarding the metabolic mechanisms of brain protection at low temperatures, achieving a correlation of R²=0.998 with human research [13][15]. - It has also discovered new patterns, such as the environmental factors affecting perovskite solar cell efficiency and protective proteins in myocardial fibrosis [26]. Group 4: Team Background - The Kosmos project is led by Ludovico Mitchener and Michaela Hinks from Edison Scientific, both of whom have strong academic backgrounds in AI and biological engineering [27][29]. - Edison Scientific is a non-profit organization focused on automating research in biology and other complex scientific fields [30].

Core Insights - The emergence of AI scientists is marked by the introduction of ToolUniverse, a unified platform that allows AI to operate over 600 scientific tools using natural language, thus advancing the automation of scientific research [1][2][32] - The transition from AI's capability to solve specific scientific problems to its efficient, reliable, and scalable participation in the entire research process is a significant milestone [1][4] ToolUniverse Overview - ToolUniverse is an open-source framework developed by Harvard and MIT, designed to connect various large models and agents to commonly used scientific tools across different fields [2][4] - The platform aims to standardize interactions between AI and scientific tools, similar to how HTTP standardized internet communication, addressing key challenges in scientific research [10][11] Key Components of ToolUniverse - ToolUniverse consists of four core components that support the complete lifecycle of AI scientists, enabling programmable scientific collaboration [12][16] - The components include: - **Memory System**: Tracks intermediate results to avoid redundant calculations [13] - **Tool Calling**: Connects external databases and analysis software, compensating for LLM's limitations [13] - **Tool Finder**: Uses keyword searches and LLM reasoning to match tools to specific research needs [14] - **Tool Caller**: Validates inputs and converts outputs into structured data [14] - **Inference Control Layer**: Helps AI understand the scientific significance of tool outputs [14] Compatibility and Flexibility - ToolUniverse allows various types of LLMs to function as scientific assistants, breaking the limitations of model binding and enabling standardized function calls [21][22] - This design allows research teams to select models based on cost and privacy needs without rewriting tool-calling logic, facilitating performance comparisons across different models [22] Practical Application Example - An example of ToolUniverse in action is the search for safer cholesterol-lowering drugs, demonstrating how an AI scientist can efficiently complete the research process [23][25] - The AI's ability to identify key proteins, select initial compounds, optimize chemical structures, and navigate patent risks showcases its scientific reasoning capabilities beyond mere tool usage [25][26][28][29] Community Engagement and Ecosystem Growth - ToolUniverse encourages user participation in tool creation and optimization, transforming users from consumers to potential co-creators [30] - This mechanism fosters a self-improving ecosystem that continuously evolves based on community input, enhancing the overall utility of the platform [30] Vision for the Future - The ultimate goal of ToolUniverse is to empower experts across various scientific fields, enabling them to customize AI research partners tailored to their unique needs [32] - The vision includes a fully automated research process where AI can autonomously design experiments and analyze results, marking a new paradigm in scientific discovery [32]

Core Insights - OpenAI is transitioning from a research lab to a vertically integrated "AI empire" with significant infrastructure investments requiring industry-wide collaboration [2][3][8] - The company's strategy is driven by confidence in future model capabilities, anticipating substantial economic value creation in the next one to two years [3][15] - OpenAI's partnerships with major tech companies like NVIDIA, Oracle, and AMD are part of a broader effort to leverage the entire AI industry chain [3][8] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced a "very aggressive infrastructure bet" that necessitates support from the entire industry [8][15] - This investment is based on the expectation of future model capabilities rather than current models, indicating a proactive approach to meet anticipated demand [15][68] - Altman hinted at more collaborations to be announced in the coming months, emphasizing the scale of this initiative [8][15] Group 2: Energy and AI - Altman linked the future of AI directly to energy availability, stating that AI's exponential growth will depend on cheaper and more abundant energy sources [6][9] - He predicts that the future energy landscape will be dominated by a combination of solar energy with storage and advanced nuclear energy [9][16] - The cost of nuclear energy will be a critical factor in its adoption and ability to support AI development [9][16] Group 3: Strategic Positioning of Sora - The recently released video generation model Sora is seen as a strategic tool for building "world models" to advance AGI and help society adapt to AI developments [10][17] - Sora also presents new commercialization challenges, as users engage with it for both professional and entertainment purposes [17] Group 4: Emergence of AI Scientists - Altman expressed excitement about the potential for AI models to make significant scientific discoveries within the next two years, marking a transformative moment for the world [12][20] - The capabilities of GPT-5 are already showing promise in making small, novel scientific discoveries [12][20] Group 5: Shift to Vertical Integration - Altman acknowledged a change in perspective regarding vertical integration, now viewing it as essential for OpenAI to achieve its mission [13][22] - He compared this shift to the success of Apple's iPhone, highlighting the need for OpenAI to control its entire stack from foundational computing to application [22][36]

Core Insights - OpenAI is transitioning from a research lab to a vertically integrated "AI empire," focusing on aggressive infrastructure investments to meet future demands for AI models [1][4][5] - The company is confident in the economic value that upcoming AI models will generate, prompting collaborations with major tech firms like NVIDIA, Oracle, and AMD [1][5] - Altman emphasizes the interconnection between AI growth and energy needs, predicting that cheaper and abundant energy sources, particularly solar and advanced nuclear energy, will be crucial for AI's exponential growth [1][6][8] Group 1: Infrastructure and Strategic Direction - OpenAI's decision for a "very aggressive infrastructure bet" is based on strong confidence in future model capabilities rather than current products [4][5] - The scale of this investment requires collaboration across the industry, covering all aspects from electronics to model distribution [5][41] - Altman anticipates more partnerships to be announced in the coming months, indicating a strategic shift towards vertical integration [1][5][41] Group 2: Energy and AI Integration - Altman links the future of AI directly to energy availability, asserting that AI's growth will depend on cheaper and more abundant energy sources [1][6] - He predicts that the dominant energy sources will be a combination of solar energy with storage and advanced nuclear technologies [6][8] - The economic viability of nuclear energy will be a key factor in its rapid adoption, with Altman criticizing past decisions to limit nuclear energy development [6][8] Group 3: AI Development and Applications - Altman expresses excitement about the potential of "AI scientists," predicting that AI models will soon be capable of making significant scientific discoveries [8][21] - The recent video generation model, Sora, is positioned as a strategic tool for building "world models" essential for advancing AGI [7][8] - Altman acknowledges the need for new business models as AI-generated content raises copyright concerns, suggesting that training AI may be viewed as fair use [7][8][61] Group 4: Organizational Philosophy and Culture - Altman reflects on his shift from an investor mindset to an operational role, realizing the necessity of vertical integration for achieving OpenAI's mission [9][16] - He compares OpenAI's approach to that of Apple's iPhone, emphasizing the importance of controlling the entire tech stack from infrastructure to applications [9][16] - The company aims to foster a culture of innovation that resembles a successful seed-stage investment firm, which is crucial for its research-driven environment [48]

Core Insights - The emergence of AI scientists represents a significant advancement in scientific research, enabling faster hypothesis generation and experimental design, as demonstrated by the recent validation of a new bacterial gene transmission mechanism by Google's AI in just 48 hours [1][2] Group 1: AI Scientist Development - AI scientists are not physical robots but intelligent agents powered by large language models, capable of generating scientific hypotheses and research plans autonomously [1] - The global competition among research institutions to develop AI scientist systems is intensifying, with two main categories: AI as research assistants and fully autonomous scientific discovery systems [2][3] Group 2: Research Assistant Systems - The first category focuses on creating AI systems that assist human scientists, providing interdisciplinary knowledge and research ideas, exemplified by Stanford University's "Virtual Laboratory" which successfully designed 92 antiviral nanobodies [2] Group 3: Autonomous Discovery Systems - The second category aims to develop fully autonomous systems capable of scientific discovery, with examples including Japan's "Fish AI" which produced a computer science paper and the "Future Home" AI system that discovered a drug for dry macular degeneration [3] Group 4: China's AI Scientist Initiatives - China is accelerating the development of AI scientist systems, with initiatives like the "Virtual Scientist" system and the "Feng Deng Gene Scientist" system, which has identified previously unreported gene functions in staple crops [4] Group 5: Future Prospects - The future may see more physical AI scientists assisting in complex research environments, such as "AI crop geneticists" and "AI soil scientists," transforming previously fictional scenarios into reality [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of SciMaster, an AI scientific assistant developed by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, DeepMind Technology, and Shanghai Algorithm Innovation Institute, which is claimed to be the world's first truly general-purpose scientific AI agent [5][10]. Group 1: Introduction to SciMaster - SciMaster has gained significant attention in the research community, with its invitation codes being sold for nearly a thousand yuan, indicating high demand [5]. - It integrates advanced capabilities such as literature search, theoretical calculations, experimental design, paper writing, and collaboration, significantly enhancing research efficiency [7][11]. Group 2: Macro Trends in AI - The AI field is transitioning from data and computing power reliance to practical applications, as noted by mathematician Terence Tao [9]. - The concept of an "AI scientist" is at the forefront of this trend, with SciMaster filling a gap in the availability of practical AI research assistants [10]. Group 3: Functional Capabilities of SciMaster - SciMaster covers the entire research process, including reading, calculating, conducting experiments, and writing reports [11]. - It utilizes a vast database of 170 million research documents to provide reliable information and can trace every assertion back to its source [11][14]. - The system can perform calculations and execute experiments through integration with automated laboratory systems [14][15]. Group 4: Performance and Testing - SciMaster has demonstrated its capabilities by achieving a new state-of-the-art score of 32.1% on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark, surpassing competitors like OpenAI and Google [28]. - The assistant can handle general queries and conduct deep research, providing comprehensive reports based on extensive data collection and analysis [30][31]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The development of SciMaster represents a significant step towards a new era of collaborative scientific exploration between humans and AI [16][49]. - The company aims to expand SciMaster's capabilities to cover a broader range of scientific knowledge, indicating a commitment to advancing AI in research [50].