公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ：内容来自 工商时报 。 也因此，法人对今、明两年的ASIC市场看法更加乐观，预期2024到2026年的ASIC芯片出货量CAGR 可高达70％，尤其今年起到明年，将有更多采用的ASIC机柜设计推出。 研调机构预估，今年度在AI训练用的ASIC出货量将在今年以逾两成年增幅、成长至上看500万颗， 在整体AI伺服器类别中，采用AI GPU与ASIC出货比重将消长为62：38，2026年再随ASIC的比重提 升、占比变化为60：40。 DIGITIMES认为，自研ASIC加速器除能降低能耗、有助CSP掌控AI基础设施的成本与供应链，亦能 降低其受制于英伟达或国际政治因素，同时透过技术创新、建立市场壁垒，也更能进一步确保CSP业 者的AI应用产品与服务竞争力。 美系四大CSP中，AWS预计于下半年推出采用Trainium 2／2.5的Teton 2机柜，推升其ASIC芯片出 货量增长逾四成，同时也带动其主要组装厂纬颖与其主要供应链纬创的出货动能。 至于Meta规划自下半年起，逐步开始量产采用自家MTIA芯片的Minerva机柜，主要组装厂除了美商 Celesti ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is significantly expanding its CoWoS capacity, with projections indicating a rise from 70k wpm at the end of 2025 to 100-105k wpm by the end of 2026, and further exceeding 130k wpm by 2027, showcasing a growth rate that outpaces the industry average [1][2]. Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity will reach 675k wafers in 2025, 1.08 million wafers in 2026 (a 60% year-on-year increase), and 1.43 million wafers in 2027 (a 31% year-on-year increase) [1]. - The expansion is concentrated in specific factories, with the Tainan AP8 factory expected to contribute approximately 30k wpm by the end of 2026, primarily serving high-end chips for NVIDIA and AMD [2]. Utilization Rates - Due to order matching issues with NVIDIA, CoWoS utilization is expected to drop to around 90% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with some capacity expansion plans delayed from Q2 to Q3 2026. However, utilization is projected to return to full capacity in the second half of 2026 with the mass production of new projects [4]. Customer Allocation - In 2026, NVIDIA is projected to occupy 50.1% of CoWoS capacity, down from 51.4% in 2025, with an allocation of approximately 541k wafers [5][6]. - AMD's CoWoS capacity is expected to grow from 52k wafers in 2025 to 99k wafers in 2026, while Broadcom's capacity is projected to reach 187k wafers, benefiting from the production of Google TPU and Meta V3 ASIC [5][6]. Technology Developments - TSMC is focusing on advanced packaging technologies such as CoPoS and WMCM, with CoPoS expected to be commercially available by the end of 2028, while WMCM is set for mass production in Q2 2026 [11][14]. - CoPoS technology offers higher yield efficiency and lower costs compared to CoWoS, while WMCM is positioned as a cost-effective solution for mid-range markets [12][14]. Supply Chain and Global Strategy - TSMC plans to outsource CoWoS backend processes to ASE/SPIL, which is expected to generate significant revenue growth for these companies [15]. - TSMC's aggressive investment strategy in the U.S. aims to establish advanced packaging facilities, enhancing local supply chain capabilities and addressing global supply chain restructuring [15]. AI Business Contribution - AI-related revenue for TSMC is projected to increase from 6% in 2023 to 35% in 2026, with front-end wafer revenue at $45.162 billion and CoWoS backend revenue at $6.273 billion, becoming a core growth driver [16].

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm is re-entering the data center market by acquiring Alphawave, a leading semiconductor IP company, to enhance its competitive edge in this sector, particularly in AI chip development [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Qualcomm announced the acquisition of Alphawave IP Group plc for an implied enterprise value of approximately $2.4 billion, expected to be completed by Q1 2026 [1][2]. - The acquisition aims to accelerate Qualcomm's expansion into the data center market and provide critical assets, particularly in high-performance, low-power computing [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Alphawave - Alphawave reported revenues of $308 million for FY2024, a 4% decline year-over-year, while FY2023 revenues were $322 million, showing a significant growth of 74% [2]. - The company achieved a booking amount of $520 million in FY2024, a 34% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 59%, up by 8 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Market Position and Technology - Alphawave ranks fourth globally in the semiconductor design IP market with a market share of 3.2% [3]. - The company specializes in high-end interface IP products, which are crucial for building high-performance computing applications, particularly in AI systems [3]. Group 4: Strategic Implications for Qualcomm - The acquisition is expected to enhance the data transmission efficiency of Qualcomm's Oryon CPU and Hexagon NPU in AI training and inference scenarios [4]. - Analysts suggest Qualcomm may pursue two development paths: launching Arm-based data center processors to compete directly with Nvidia and AMD, or adopting a chip design service model similar to Broadcom [4][5]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Qualcomm previously attempted to enter the data center market with the Centriq 2400 processor in 2017 but faced challenges due to the dominance of Intel's x86 architecture [5]. - The company has been gradually building its capabilities, including the acquisition of Nuvia in 2021, which focused on data center CPUs [5][6]. - Qualcomm's CEO indicated that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI data centers and plans to re-enter the server market with new products by 2025 [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - AMD's stock price has been on a downward trend for the past nine months, falling below significant long-term support levels, despite a strong rebound from its April low of approximately $75 per share [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, AMD reported revenue of $7.44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 36% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 3%, exceeding market expectations of $7.12 billion, driven by strong sales of EPYC CPUs, Instinct Mi300 AI GPUs, and Ryzen processors [4][5]. - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was $3.74 billion, up 46% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 50%, which is a 3 percentage point increase from the previous year [5]. - Operating income reached $806 million, a significant increase of 2,139% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 11% [5]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $709 million, up 476% from the previous year, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.44, a 529% increase [5]. Segment Performance - The Data Center segment generated revenue of $3.67 billion, up 57% year-over-year, primarily due to growth in EPYC CPU and Instinct GPU sales [6]. - The Client and Gaming segment revenue was $2.94 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, with Client revenue specifically rising by 68% [6]. - The Embedded segment saw a slight decline in revenue, down 3% year-over-year to $823 million [6]. Future Outlook - AMD's management expects Q2 2025 revenue to be around $7.4 billion, indicating a slowdown in growth to approximately 26%, although this guidance exceeds the general market expectation of $7.24 billion [8]. - The company anticipates strong performance in the Data Center market in the second half of 2025, driven by the Mi350x AI GPU, with a projected market share of 5-10% in the AI chip market by 2027, which is expected to reach $400 billion [7][9]. Shareholder Returns - AMD generated $727 million in free cash flow in Q1 2025, with a free cash flow margin of about 10%, and returned $749 million to shareholders through stock buybacks [10]. - The company has a buyback authorization of approximately $4 billion and a net cash balance exceeding $3 billion, indicating potential for continued shareholder returns [10]. Valuation and Investment Thesis - Following the strong Q1 2025 results, AMD's fair value estimate has increased from $151 to $162 per share, suggesting a potential upside of about 64% from current levels [14]. - Analysts project a five-year target price of approximately $291 per share, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 24.1% [14]. - Despite challenges in the semiconductor industry, AMD's expected CAGR exceeds the analyst's investment hurdle rate of 15%, making it an attractive accumulation opportunity at current levels [15].