Core Insights - The report highlights the April calendar effect, indicating that the large-cap style tends to outperform in most years, while sectors such as beauty, food and beverage, home appliances, and banking are expected to perform relatively well [2][7] - The average absolute monthly return for the Tonghuashun All A (weighted) index in April over the past 10 years is -1.6%, suggesting a general decline in the market during this month [7][8] - Small-cap and micro-cap styles have significantly underperformed compared to large-cap styles, indicating a structural characteristic in the market [7][10] Industry Performance - The sectors that are expected to outperform in April include beauty, food and beverage, home appliances, banking, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors such as computer, comprehensive, light industry, military, and textile are anticipated to lag [7][13] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the average monthly excess returns of various industry indices compared to the Tonghuashun All A (weighted) index over the past 10 years, showing that certain sectors consistently yield better returns [13][15] - Specific data points indicate that the beauty sector has an average excess return of 2.8%, while the computer sector shows a negative average excess return of -0.7% in April [13][15]

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 大消费行业 2026 年 4 月金股推荐 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江大消费九大优势行业（农业、零售、社服、汽车、纺服、轻工、食品、家电、医药）2026 年 4 月重点推荐金股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 李锦 赵刚 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490517020001 SFC：BQT624 SFC：BUV258 SFC：BUX176 高伊楠 于旭辉 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUW101 SFC：BUU942 SFC：BUV463 董思远 陈亮 彭英骐 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490517070017 SAC：S0490524030005 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BUW408 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2/11 %% ...

消费 【食饮 】转折之年——食品饮料 2026 年春季投资策略 投资建议：拐点将至， 重视涨价主线。 白酒调整 尾声，长期看价，集中化延续；大众品见底，板块分化 加剧，调味品、啤酒 、饮料 韧性较强。 1 ） 白酒首选具有价格弹性标的以及有望陆续出清标的 ； 2 ） 调味品优选具备渠道力与产品力、明确提价预期与高分红属性的龙头以及量价齐升弹性突出的餐饮供应链 龙头； 3 ）啤酒具备全国化与大单品战略、分红意愿强的龙头与高成长区域龙头； 4 ）布局龙头乳企与 头部牧业； 5 ）具备品类与渠道优势的原料、零食及饮料龙头。 白酒： 行业筑底，回归理性。 本轮周期从" U 型调整"迈向" V 型调整"。与 2013-2016 年的行业调整 期相比，本轮周期需求和预期的调整幅度相对较小、调整周期明显拉长。上一轮白酒行业调整呈 V 型， 行业出清速度快；本轮调整在前期（ 24Q2-25Q2 ）更像 U 型， 25Q3 起大幅下修，单季度跌幅接近 甚至超过上一轮最差值，有望加速筑底过程。 啤酒 & 饮料：啤酒改善，饮料结构繁荣。 伴随餐饮场景触底企稳、大众消费逐步恢复，啤酒行业改善可 期，结构升级、吨价提升以及效率优化仍将 ...

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance scale of equity public funds has returned to a historical high, with new fund issuance reaching 198.2 billion units, up from 31.2 billion units previously, marking a 95% percentile in the last three years[9] - Margin financing net inflow was approximately 48.8 billion, a significant increase from the previous outflow of 253.1 billion, placing it at the 57% percentile over the last three years[13] - Southbound capital net inflow surged to 465 billion, returning to a historical high, while equity financing decreased to 38.1 billion, at the 22% percentile[25][36] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat index for the chemical industry increased by 23 percentage points to 63%, while the construction sector rose by 19 percentage points to 79%[42] - The media sector saw a decline of 30 percentage points to 55%, and the real estate sector decreased by 16 percentage points to 28%[42] - The overall trading volume for stock ETFs turned negative at -74 billion, down from a previous inflow of 45.6 billion, placing it at the 23% percentile[20] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in A-shares was 1430.3 billion, a decrease of 694.2 billion from the previous week, placing it at the 80% percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media platforms has declined, indicating a decrease in market enthusiasm amid external geopolitical and liquidity disturbances[66] - The trend of public funds clustering has intensified, with a focus on value and sectors like consumption and cyclical industries[2]

Group 1: Strategic Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan," achieving significant economic and social development milestones[9] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve substantial progress in high-quality development, with a focus on increasing the resident consumption rate and total factor productivity[30] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, with a target to significantly enhance the level of technological independence[30] Group 2: Key Development Tasks - The plan outlines twelve core tasks, including the construction of a modern industrial system and the promotion of digital and intelligent development[4] - It highlights the need for a strong domestic market, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and improving investment in both human and physical resources[4] - The plan aims to accelerate the green transition, with specific mechanisms and tasks to promote energy efficiency and carbon reduction[4] Group 3: Economic and Social Indicators - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets ambitious targets, including a GDP growth rate that remains reasonable and a significant increase in the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption[39] - It aims for a substantial increase in the number of high-value invention patents per capita, targeting 22 patents per 10,000 people[41] - The plan includes a goal for the urbanization rate of the permanent population to reach 71%[41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a systematic arrangement to boost consumption, aligning with market expectations, and emphasizes the importance of comprehensive plans to enhance consumer purchasing power and optimize the consumption environment [5]. Core Insights - The central government has allocated 150 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan, and 250 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement from 2024 to 2026, achieving positive results [2]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, with measures to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, thereby releasing potential in tourism, events, and wellness [2]. - The report anticipates a moderate increase in consumer prices, with a target inflation rate of around 2% for 2026, aiming to improve the overall supply-demand relationship [3]. Summary by Sections Consumption Policy - The government has implemented a series of consumption-boosting measures, including the "New Spring Shopping" campaign, which features various cultural and tourism activities, and the distribution of over 360 million yuan in consumption vouchers [7]. - The first batch of 625 billion yuan in subsidies for replacing consumer goods has been distributed nationwide [7]. Economic Indicators - During the 2026 Spring Festival, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% and 18.7% respectively [3]. - Average daily tourism spending per person decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, indicating a weak recovery in consumer spending [6]. Sector Recommendations - Investment suggestions include hospitality companies such as ShouLai Hotel and JinJiang Hotel, food and beverage firms like DongPeng Beverage and GuoQuan, and agricultural companies such as MuYuan and HaiDa Group [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a systematic arrangement to boost consumption, aligning with market expectations, and emphasizes the importance of comprehensive plans to enhance consumer purchasing power and optimize the consumption environment [5]. Core Insights - The central government has allocated 150 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan, and 250 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement from 2024 to 2026, achieving positive results [2]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, with measures to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, thereby releasing potential in cultural tourism, events, and health sectors [2]. - The report anticipates a moderate increase in consumer prices, with a target inflation rate of around 2% for 2026, aiming to improve the overall supply-demand relationship [3]. Summary by Sections Consumption Policy - The government has implemented a series of systematic measures to stimulate consumption, including the "New Spring Shopping" campaign, which involved 9 departments and introduced various promotional activities [7]. - The first batch of 625 billion yuan in subsidies for replacing consumer goods has been distributed nationwide [7]. Consumer Behavior - During the 2026 Spring Festival, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% and 18.7% respectively [3]. - Per capita tourism spending during the Spring Festival was 1,348 yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a weak recovery in consumer spending [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a dual trend of total consumption growth alongside weak per capita consumption, with some service prices showing positive reversals [3][6]. - The average price of domestic economy class flights during the Spring Festival was 1,026 yuan, reflecting increases of 7.1% and 10.1% compared to 2025 and 2019 respectively [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in various sectors, including hospitality (e.g., Shouqi Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel), food and beverage (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Guoquan), agriculture (e.g., Muyuan Food), and home appliances (e.g., Midea Group, Haier) [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks, market structure differentiation, and capital competition, transitioning from an index-driven market to a structure-driven market focused on earnings and capital [1] - The upcoming "Two Sessions" is expected to create a favorable policy environment, while the RMB remains strong, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese equity assets [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors with short-term certainty such as oil and gas, petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals, as well as in industries with improving supply-demand dynamics like basic chemicals, steel, construction materials, and finance [1] Group 2 - The global supply of vitamins A, E, and methionine is under pressure due to a drone attack on Qatar's energy facilities, which has significant implications for the European chemical industry [2][3] - Current prices for methionine and vitamins are at historically low levels, with methionine prices at 2.7% and vitamin E prices at 10.4% of their historical percentiles [2] - The decline in industry inventory since January indicates a transition from price bottoming to profit recovery, with key price increases noted for various products in February [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share market is not indicative of a trend reversal but rather a short-term emotional release under external pressures, with a medium to long-term positive trend remaining intact [1][2][3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations driven by geopolitical risks, market structure differentiation, and capital dynamics, resulting in wide index oscillations and extreme sector divergence [2] - External geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing Middle East tensions, have triggered short-term volatility, while domestic economic fundamentals and policy direction continue to dominate medium to long-term trends [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The market is expected to transition from emotion-driven movements to fundamentals-driven dynamics, characterized by "oscillation digestion, momentum enhancement, and structural focus" [3] - Key investment themes include: - **Theme One**: Short-term certainty in price increases and risk aversion, particularly in sectors like oil and gas, petrochemicals, coal, non-ferrous metals, and shipping ports, which are benefiting from rising energy prices and inflation expectations [3][4] - **Theme Two**: Improvement in supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, with a focus on sectors such as basic chemicals, steel, construction materials, and financials, especially banks [4] - **Theme Three**: New productive forces in the domestic economy, including storage, computing power, consumer electronics, communication equipment, communication services, semiconductors, and military industries, as well as consumer sectors with strong domestic and external demand expectations [4]

Economic Stability - Stability is the current foundation of the Chinese stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently stabilizing and showing positive momentum[11] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has limited impact on the Chinese market, with expectations quickly forming and digesting after recent developments[11] - China's internal stability and accelerated development are increasingly necessary amid external uncertainties, supported by rising national strength and governance levels[11] Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to lead to better-than-expected arrangements for deficit rates and special bonds, which will stabilize the real estate market[12] - In January and February 2026, the issuance of new special bonds reached CNY 830 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, likely boosting economic activity[12] - The recovery rates for construction sites and funding availability have increased by 1.5% and 3.7% respectively compared to the previous lunar year[12] Sector Recommendations - Emerging technology is a key focus, with recommendations for sectors such as machinery, electronics, and defense, emphasizing self-sufficiency and AI applications[13] - Financial stability is highlighted, with banks and non-bank financial institutions recommended for investment due to their role as market stabilizers[13] - Resource sectors, including metals and oil transportation, are expected to benefit from global security changes and domestic investment recovery[13] Risk Factors - Risks include potential overseas economic downturns and geopolitical uncertainties, as well as individual stock performance not meeting expectations[14]