Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery trend in manufacturing sentiment[8] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points, signaling a return to expansion[9] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting ongoing recovery in production[12] Employment and Market Sentiment - The employment index within the manufacturing PMI is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment sentiment[14] - Small enterprises show a PMI index of 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the employment market[13] - The overall employment market sentiment is showing signs of slowing down, with expectations for income and employment potentially weakening[26] Inflation and Pricing Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate is estimated to be around -3.4% for June, indicating a continued decline in producer prices[18] - The gap between new orders and production PMI narrowed slightly to -0.8%, suggesting a minor improvement in supply-demand balance[18] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting strong growth driven by fiscal policies[20] - The service sector PMI is at 50.2%, showing a slight decline, likely due to seasonal factors following holiday periods[24] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in market risk appetite, supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[27] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is assessed to be higher than in July, with current market expectations indicating a 76% chance of a 25 basis point cut[28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 1, 2025, A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index down 0.24%. The trading volume reached 1.466 trillion yuan, slightly down by 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., were affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and international trade situations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3457.75, up 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29, up 0.11%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92, down 0.24%. The trading volume was 1.466 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3942.76, up 6.68 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 1, the coke weighted index closed at 1393.2, down 34.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 823.9 yuan, down 27.8 [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises with long - term contracts may decrease, while those with market - based procurement may face higher costs. The probability of price increases after four rounds of price cuts is low [5]. - For coking coal, supply has tightened recently, and the inventory structure has improved. However, there is a strong expectation of coal mine resumption, and the terminal demand is under pressure [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected good harvest in Thailand and India, and the 22.1% decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of June, the US sugar price fell on Monday, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract declined on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Due to excessive rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the spot price in Southeast Asia has been firm. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Tuesday and fluctuated slightly at night. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase [6][7]. Palm Oil - On July 1, palm oil was in a volatile state, closing at 8336, up 0.07%. As of June 27, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 1, CBOT soybeans fluctuated. The good condition of US soybeans was offset by the rise in soybean oil prices. Domestically, the soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton on July 1. With sufficient soybean imports and high oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory will gradually increase, and it will run weakly [8]. Live Pigs - On July 1, the live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 13865 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures will run weakly [9]. Copper - Macroscopically, copper prices are supported by tight mines and low inventory, but the slowdown of Fed rate cuts and US tariff policies limit the upside. Fundamentally, overseas premiums drive LME copper inventory reduction, and domestic social inventory is lower than last year, so copper prices will continue to be strong [9]. Iron Ore - On July 1, the iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.32% to close at 708.5 yuan. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals have decreased, while steel mills' blast furnace profits are good, and iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On July 1, the asphalt 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 3562 yuan. The processing profit has improved slightly, but demand is still weak, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. Logs - On July 1, the log 2509 contract opened at 784, with a low of 778, a high of 789, and closed at 787, with an increase of 48 lots. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and demand is weak [11]. Cotton - On the night of July 1, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13775 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 62 lots [11]. Steel - On July 1, rb2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The black - series rebound has paused, and although there are rumors of production cuts, terminal demand is still weak [11]. Alumina - Under the situation of supply surplus in the third quarter, alumina prices will be mainly determined by cost. The price is under pressure due to the expected large - scale new production capacity in the future [12]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry limit. Although terminal demand is in the off - season, the processing link has maintained a certain level of demand. Low inventory is currently supporting aluminum prices, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [12].

Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth is improving, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are declining; home appliance average sales prices show mixed trends with more increases than decreases year-on-year [1][8] - Service consumption shows divergence, with movie box office improving and hotel revenue per available room declining but showing year-on-year growth [1][8] External Demand - Export indicators such as container throughput and departing ship weights have decreased, suggesting a potential decline in export growth due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports continue to rise year-on-year, while traditional transshipment trade areas see a significant drop, indicating a shift from transshipment to direct exports [4] - The U.S. International Trade Court has temporarily allowed tariffs to continue, with the final ruling still pending, necessitating close monitoring of developments [5] Production - Downstream demand remains weak, with speculative demand in the chemical chain decreasing and related product prices falling; steel procurement enthusiasm is low, leading to a decline in steel prices [6] - Employment indices remain stable, with a slight increase in employment price indices, while job search and recruitment-related search indices show a downward trend [6] Prices - Gold and oil prices have retreated, while copper remains in a fluctuating range; domestic chemical products and steel prices continue to decline [7] - Market expectations of OPEC+ accelerating oil production have pressured international oil prices, while geopolitical tensions provide some support for oil prices; gold remains in a fluctuating range but is expected to trend upward in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and global instability [7]

1、习近平对精神文明建设工作作出重要指示强调 推动精神文明建设高质量发展 为强国建设民族复兴提 供强大精神力量 蔡奇出席全国精神文明建设表彰大会并讲话； 2、央视快评：为强国建设民族复兴提供强大精神力量； 3、习近平同德国总理通电话； 4、习近平向罗马尼亚当选总统达恩致贺电； 5、李强主持召开国务院常务会议； 6、韩正会见土库曼斯坦议长； 7、"两新"政策效应显现 有效激发内需潜力； 8、【在希望的田野上·三夏时节】各地抢抓夏收夏种 夯实粮食丰收基础； 9、国务院新闻办举行"新征程上的奋斗者"中外记者见面会； 10、"外媒看中国"首场采访活动走进渝鄂； 11、财政部下达14亿元农业防灾救灾资金； 12、今年1到4月我国消费品品种新增809.8万种； 13、2025年"特岗计划"招聘工作启动； 14、全国妇联等11部门部署开展2025年"六一"庆祝活动； 15、《国家网络身份认证公共服务管理办法》今日公布； 16、中老铁路货物运输量突破6000万吨； 17、乙巳年世界华人炎帝故里寻根节在湖北随州举行； 18、2025上合组织国家媒体合作论坛在新疆举行； 19、联合国贸发会称美关税政策无视世贸规则 冲击脆弱经济体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From May 6 - 9, short - term varieties performed well, with the 1Y CD rate breaking through the resistance level around 1.75% and dropping nearly 10BP. From May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds increased significantly to 6453 billion yuan, putting pressure on the capital market. However, the RRR cut on May 15 will provide 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity support, and it is expected that the capital interest rate will remain around 1.5%. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, and the short - term still has value. If the capital interest rate stays around the policy rate, when the 1Y CD rate drops to around 1.6%, profit - taking is needed [3][9]. - The "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has three key points: First, it affirms the phased results of interest rate formation and transmission and will further improve the interest rate regulation framework; second, it shifts from focusing on activating the stock and preventing idling to increasing credit investment and highlighting quantitative tools; third, it mentions the US tariff policy multiple times and sets up a special column to discuss government debt and inflation [3][9][13]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Current Situation and Future Concerns - On May 7, a package of financial policies were introduced. From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was negative, but the capital price declined slowly before the interest rate cut on May 8, which may be related to the central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 1 trillion yuan from May 6 - 7. After the interest rate cut on May 8, the capital price dropped significantly. As of May 9, DR001 was 1.49%, R001 was 1.52%, DR007 was 1.54%, and R007 was 1.58%. The spread between DR007 and 7DOMO was 14BP, and the spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [8]. - The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, the long - end adjustment was larger, and the yield curve steepened. In the short term, the possibility of further easing decreased, and the short - term still has value [9]. 2. Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan. The bill interest rate changed little from May 6 - 9, with the 3M national - share discount rate rising from 1.07% to 1.09% and the six - month national - share transfer discount rate remaining around 1.07% [32][34]. 3. Open - Market Operation Tracking - As of May 9, the central bank's total open - market operation balance was 9664.1 billion yuan, including a pledged reverse - repurchase balance of 836.1 billion yuan, a repurchase - style reverse - repurchase balance of 460 billion yuan, and an MLF balance of 465.7 billion yuan. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan [39]. 4. Government Bond Tracking 4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From May 5 - 9, treasury bonds were issued for 37.1 billion yuan with a net financing of 19.558 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 10.5459 billion yuan with a net financing of 6.7224 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, treasury bonds were issued for 55 billion yuan with a net financing of 46.067 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 19.725 billion yuan with a net financing of 17.1114 billion yuan [45][47]. 4.2 Government Bond Payment - From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at - 75.42 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 63.13 billion yuan. It is expected that from May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds will be 645.32 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at 481.67 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 163.65 billion yuan [52]. 5. Inter - Bank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 5.1 Primary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, inter - bank CDs were issued for 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 368.5 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, the maturity of inter - bank CDs was 593.9 billion yuan. In terms of bank types, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale; in terms of maturity types, 1Y had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 97%. The issuance success rate of state - owned banks was the highest at 100%, and that of 1Y was 98%. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and all maturities decreased significantly [57][58]. 5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, after the central bank announced the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the secondary - market yields of CDs of all maturities decreased significantly, with the 3M CD yield dropping by 13bp and the yields of other maturities dropping by about 8bp [80]. 6. Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of March 2025 was 1.00%. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 781.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, reducing the excess reserve scale by 769.41 billion yuan in total [86].