Core Insights - The conference emphasized that true internationalization involves deep integration and co-creation with local markets rather than mere replication [2] - The shift from competing on price and scale to focusing on innovation, value, and brand is essential for future growth [2][4] - Innovation is now a critical necessity for survival and development, rather than an optional strategy [4] Investment and Market Expansion - In 2024, Guangdong enterprises established over 1,900 non-financial companies abroad, with actual investments exceeding $21 billion [3] - Guangdong's foreign trade has ranked first in China for 36 consecutive years, with a record total import and export value in the first eight months of this year [3] Innovation as a Driving Force - Innovation is recognized as the core driver for Guangdong businesses transitioning from "going out" to "going in" [4] - Companies are encouraged to increase R&D investments in cutting-edge fields such as AI, new information technology, biomedicine, new materials, and high-end equipment [5] Collaborative Strategies for Internationalization - The transformation of Guangdong businesses includes moving from individual efforts to collaborative ecosystems, enhancing overall competitiveness in international markets [9] - Companies are advised to diversify supply chains and utilize financial tools to mitigate risks associated with international trade [8] Green and Digital Transformation - AI and digitalization are seen as essential tools for enhancing efficiency and restructuring global operations, while green and low-carbon initiatives are becoming the new standard in international markets [11] - The establishment of a mutual recognition mechanism for carbon footprint and ESG certification between Guangdong and Hong Kong is proposed to facilitate access to European markets [11][12]

多晶硅：市场情绪降温 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 26 日 工业硅：盘面表现较抗跌 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 9,055 | 35 | 150 | 540 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 318,137 | -35,630 | -157,561 | -132,153 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 259,965 | -10,966 | -25,087 | -21,874 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,365 | -15 | -1,840 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 184,786 | -57,230 | -13,972 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 105,474 | - ...

The five shopping and entertainment centres managed in Lithuania and Latvia by Akropolis Group, a shopping and entertainment centres development and management company, maintained stable visitor footfall in the first half of 2025, amounting to 21 million visitors in total. The tenants’ turnover reached the record high of EUR 558.9 million and was 1.8% more than for the same period last year. “This half a year was particularly intense and successful for the entire team: from significant renovations and impro ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the cobalt industry, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which is a significant player in the global cobalt market [1][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Uncertain Policy Environment**: The DRC's quota policy remains unclear, with 26 companies failing to submit applications or data, leading to a high probability of delays. Initial quota amounts may be released before adjustments are made [1][3]. - **Production Forecasts**: DRC's copper production is expected to reach 120,000 tons in 2025, with cobalt production increasing as a byproduct due to favorable copper prices. The DRC may adopt a low-margin, high-volume sales strategy to address cost issues [1][4][5]. - **Impact of U.S. Strategic Reserves**: The U.S. Logistics Reserve Bureau plans to store 7,500 tons of electric cobalt over five years, affecting supply capabilities of companies like Vale, Sumitomo, and Glencore, leading to tighter supply for long-term customers [7]. - **Blockchain Technology in Trade**: The DRC has initiated a digital trade platform using blockchain to certify responsible mining practices, which may enhance cobalt production [8]. - **Chinese Enterprises' Challenges**: Chinese companies contribute approximately 80% of raw materials in the DRC. If the DRC government favors foreign enterprises, it could negatively impact Chinese mining stocks and lead to inventory pressures [12][11]. Additional Important Content - **Inventory Management**: Chinese enterprises face challenges with cobalt raw material inventory, which has decreased since June, but still has 80,000 to 100,000 tons to digest [2][17]. - **Price Trends**: Cobalt sulfate prices may rise to 65,000 to 67,000 RMB per ton, with current prices exceeding 57,000 RMB per ton [18]. - **Market Demand**: The demand for cobalt in the battery sector is declining, with the share of cobalt used in power batteries dropping from 21% to lower percentages in 2025 [19]. - **Future Strategies**: Chinese enterprises are expected to adopt a gradual strategy in global cobalt resource allocation, focusing on quota systems to control total output and meet export demands [21]. - **Geopolitical Influences**: The DRC's resource distribution policies may be influenced by U.S.-China relations, potentially affecting market shares of Western companies in the DRC [22]. Conclusion The DRC's cobalt market is characterized by policy uncertainties, production forecasts, and geopolitical dynamics that could significantly impact both local and international stakeholders. The evolving landscape necessitates close monitoring of inventory levels, pricing trends, and strategic responses from Chinese enterprises in the face of potential shifts in government policy and market demand.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **commodity market**, focusing on the dynamics of supply and demand, price fluctuations, and the impact of geopolitical and economic factors on commodity prices [1][6][30]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Commodity Supercycle**: The current commodity market is in a down phase of the previous supercycle, driven by urbanization and industrialization, with no new cycle formation expected due to weak growth in emerging markets and de-globalization trends [1][6][7]. 2. **CTA Strategy Performance**: The Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies have shown significant volatility, with expectations for improved efficiency starting in 2025. The strategies are influenced by fundamental changes and external factors [1][8]. 3. **Tariff Policies**: Tariff policies have had a notable impact on the commodity market, particularly in metals, with U.S. policies and geopolitical risks acting as significant variables [1][9]. 4. **Market Sentiment Monitoring**: Market sentiment can be gauged through CFTC positions, changes in gold ETFs, and options market data, indicating risk appetite and price distribution [1][10]. 5. **Demand-Side Challenges**: Demand-side forecasting models have limited explanatory power, often relying on simple models that do not account for the dollar variable to avoid error transfer. Economic growth is expected to be under pressure in 2025, suppressing commodity prices [1][11]. 6. **Supply-Side Constraints**: Insufficient upstream investment in oil, gas, and metal mining is leading to capacity constraints, which will frequently impact prices from 2025 to 2026 [1][12][13]. 7. **Relative Oversupply Expectation**: A significant decline in demand growth expectations is leading to a relative oversupply in the commodity market for 2025, despite ongoing supply-side stories [1][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical tensions have a substantial impact on energy markets, with oil prices fluctuating significantly due to these risks [1][21][22]. 2. **Copper Market Dynamics**: Changes in demand and supply for copper have been significant, with new demand sources emerging from electrification and green energy, while supply remains tight [1][33]. 3. **Black Metals Market**: The black metals market faces challenges due to a downturn in the real estate cycle and potential new production releases, which may lower prices in the long term [1][34]. 4. **Agricultural Market Influences**: Agricultural markets are influenced by various factors, including weather disturbances and trade relations, which can lead to domestic shortages [1][35]. 5. **Gold Market Factors**: The gold market is influenced by interest rates, risk aversion, and central bank purchases, with the latter's impact diminishing recently as rates and ETF dynamics gain prominence [1][37][38]. Conclusion The conference call provides a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market, highlighting the interplay between supply and demand, the effects of geopolitical risks, and the evolving dynamics of specific commodities like gold and copper. The insights suggest a cautious outlook for the commodity market in the near term, with significant attention needed on policy changes and economic indicators.

Core Viewpoint - The economist urges the Thai government to adopt a phased strategy to mitigate the impact of the newly implemented 19% U.S. tariffs, highlighting the need for structural reforms to address deeper economic vulnerabilities [1] Group 1: Immediate Response - The tariffs should not only be seen as a threat but as an opportunity to reposition the economy for long-term resilience [1] - A proposed emergency fund should provide low-interest loans and liquidity support to affected exporters, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2: Mid-term Strategy - The mid-term plan (6-18 months) should focus on supply chain restructuring, reducing external dependencies, and promoting industries aligned with sustainability goals [1] - New investment incentives must comply with global standards, such as ESG criteria and carbon border taxes [1] - Emphasis on enhancing workforce skills and integrating digital tools like artificial intelligence and big data is necessary [1] Group 3: Long-term Vision - In the long term (1.5-5 years), Thailand needs to transition from a low-cost manufacturing base to a regional hub for high-value services and innovation [1] - Significant investments in research and development, specialized development, and upstream technology are required [1] - Establishing a Thailand-U.S. economic dialogue platform and actively participating in multilateral forums is recommended to avoid future trade frictions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It points out that factors such as US economic data, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals affect metal prices. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short - term, while other metals have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [8][14][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose over $70 and 2.22% to $3362.64/oz, London silver rose 1% to $37.02/oz. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.33% to 781 yuan/g, Shanghai silver futures rose 0.80% to 8994 yuan/kg. The US dollar index fell 1.37% to 98.67, 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.225%, and the RMB against the US dollar rose 0.09% to 7.193 [4] - **Important Information**: US July non - farm payrolls were 73,000 (expected 110,000), unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings annual rate was 3.9%. July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8. Fed officials had different views on the labor market, and the probability of Fed rate cuts increased [5][6][8] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak US non - farm data, Fed internal differences, and doubts about Fed independence led to a decline in the US dollar and 10 - year US Treasury yields, and precious metals gained upward momentum. They are expected to remain high and be prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [9] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, LME copper closed at $9,633/ton, up 0.27%. LME inventory increased 3,550 tons to 141,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased 1,766 tons to 259,000 tons [11] - **Important Information**: US July non - farm payrolls were poor, Fed理事Adriana Kugler resigned, Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and Codelco cut copper mining at its El Teniente project [11][13] - **Logic Analysis**: Poor non - farm data increased the probability of a September rate cut. Supply was tight with new disruptions, and domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Downstream procurement increased after price corrections, and LME inventory increased first [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile, focus on the 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton support, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14] Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract fell 39 yuan to 3,166 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Important Information**: Australian alumina price was stable, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a ten - key - industry stability and growth plan, spot prices decreased due to active sales by futures - cash traders, and inventory increased [16][18] - **Logic Analysis**: After the speculation sentiment cooled, prices returned to the fundamental logic. Supply - demand surplus expanded, and prices were under pressure but had support at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure, focus on the 3,000 - 3,100 yuan support, wait and see for arbitrage and options [20] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 5 yuan to 2,048 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions fell [22] - **Important Information**: US non - farm data was poor, the US adjusted "equivalent tariffs" to take effect on August 7, electrolytic aluminum inventory was stable on August 1, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors affected LME and Shanghai aluminum prices. Domestic speculative sentiment cooled, and inventory was expected to increase but at a slower pace [24] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under short - term pressure, consider positive arbitrage for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges, wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,875 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions fell [27] - **Important Information**: Cast aluminum alloy production decreased slightly, and the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Scrap aluminum shortage restricted production, supply was tight, demand was weak, and futures prices were expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure and fluctuate with aluminum prices, consider positive arbitrage when the spot - futures spread is over 300 yuan, wait and see for options [28] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 3.52% to $2,729.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 22,225 yuan/ton. Spot trading was average [30] - **Important Information**: China's refined zinc production in July was 602,800 tons, Nexa's Q2 zinc production had changes [30][31] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was sufficient, smelters were profitable and production was expected to increase, and consumption was in the off - season [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions, buy put options, wait and see for options [33] Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 0.23% to $1,974/ton, Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.69% to 16,775 yuan/ton. Spot trading improved regionally [35] - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries was still limited, and some smelters stopped purchasing due to equipment maintenance or poor market conditions [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: Lead concentrate was tight, primary lead supply increased, secondary lead production had an increase despite losses, and downstream procurement improved [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $70 to $15,020/ton, inventory increased 390 tons to 209,082 tons. Spot premiums of different brands changed [40] - **Important Information**: Jien was registered as an LME delivery brand, Eramet's Indonesian subsidiary had mixed performance, and the Indonesian nickel industry faced challenges [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Poor US non - farm data boosted non - ferrous metals prices. Nickel supply and demand both increased slightly in August, and prices were expected to oscillate [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money put options [42][43] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 45 yuan to 12,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [45] - **Important Information**: Outokumpu's Q2 2025 performance was positive, and it announced a new strategy [46] - **Logic Analysis**: The market traded on the US economic recession expectation, stainless steel production was expected to increase in August, but demand was in the off - season and inventory declined slowly [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage [48] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fell last week, and spot prices decreased [50] - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized market - oriented and legal governance to break "involution" [50] - **Logic Analysis**: As leading manufacturers resumed production, the fundamentals became bearish, and the price was in a negative cycle [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in short - term short positions, consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [53] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures weakened last week, and spot prices were given [55] - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry [55] - **Logic Analysis**: Polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, there will be an oversupply, and capacity integration is expected to strengthen. Prices may have short - term callbacks but also sudden positives [55] - **Trading Strategy**: Participate lightly during price corrections with strict stop - losses, hold long polysilicon and short industrial silicon positions long - term, and conduct reverse arbitrage for far - month polysilicon contracts [56] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,080 yuan to 68,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices decreased [58] - **Important Information**: The National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued a new certification rule for lithium - ion batteries, CBA said the worst of the lithium bear market was over, and POSCO made an acquisition offer [59][60] - **Logic Analysis**: Positive factors supported short - term prices, and there may be a gap - up on Monday due to mine disturbance expectations [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money put options [61] Tin - **Market Review**: Shanghai tin 2509 rose 0.8% to 266,370 yuan/ton, and spot prices and processing fees were given [63] - **Important Information**: US non - farm payrolls were poor, Fed理事Adriana Kugler resigned, and Indonesia's PTTimah's refined tin production and sales decreased in the first half of the year [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices rebounded after the non - farm data, the supply of tin ore was tight, and demand was in the off - season [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, wait and see for options [65]

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in global expansion amidst deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] - The summit aimed to facilitate thought exchange, resource connection, and regulatory dialogue among Chinese enterprises [1] Group 2 - Sun Yuanjiang, Chief Representative of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank's Abu Dhabi Business Center, highlighted the challenges faced by Chinese companies in the Middle East, including navigating complex political landscapes, regulatory compliance, cultural differences, and lack of localization [3] - He emphasized the need for Chinese enterprises to understand geopolitical dynamics, regulatory frameworks, and social cultural sensitivities in the region [3] - The Middle East is transitioning from a resource-driven model to one focused on innovation, sustainable development, and regional leadership, which requires Chinese companies to adapt [3][4] Group 3 - Sun Yuanjiang stated that Chinese companies must evolve from exporters to co-creators, from builders to partners, and from investors to community stakeholders in the Middle East [4]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia is actively reshaping its position to become a core participant in the global semiconductor supply chain, aiming to attract over 500 billion Malaysian Ringgit (approximately 107 billion USD) in public and private investments through its National Semiconductor Strategy (NSS) launched in May 2024 [1][2]. Investment and Incentives - The Malaysian government has committed to providing 25 billion Malaysian Ringgit (approximately 5.3 billion USD) in incentives, including tax exemptions, grants, and infrastructure support to attract foreign investors and local entrepreneurs [2]. - Major semiconductor manufacturers like Intel and Infineon are expanding their operations in Malaysia, with Intel investing 7 billion USD in Penang and Infineon committing 5 billion Euros to enhance its power semiconductor capacity in Kulim [2]. Talent Development - The NSS includes an ambitious plan to train and upskill 60,000 local engineers to meet the complex demands of modern semiconductor manufacturing [2][3]. - A dual training system has been approved to combine classroom learning with practical factory experience, aiming to address the current skills gap and retain top engineering talent by offering competitive salaries [3]. Local Industry Growth - The NSS aims to nurture at least 10 local advanced packaging and integrated circuit (IC) design companies, with each expected to generate revenues between 1 billion to 4.7 billion Malaysian Ringgit (approximately 210 million to 1 billion USD) by 2030 [3]. - Government-related investors are creating targeted funding pools to support local deep-tech startups, emphasizing the commercialization of research outcomes in semiconductor physics and materials science [3]. Strategic Positioning - Malaysia's strategic location at the crossroads of East Asia and West Asia, along with its political neutrality, makes it an ideal place for semiconductor companies seeking to diversify their production bases [3][4]. - The country is enhancing its appeal as a regional semiconductor hub by actively participating in regional trade agreements and fostering cross-border R&D collaborations [4]. Sustainability and ESG Focus - Malaysia is positioning itself as a forward-thinking and environmentally conscious manufacturing base, integrating renewable energy and carbon tracking tools in semiconductor production [4]. - The NSS aligns with Malaysia's push for sustainable manufacturing practices, which is increasingly prioritized by technology companies [4]. Long-term Vision - Malaysia's investment in the semiconductor sector is not just about factories and engineers but also about establishing long-term technological sovereignty amid accelerating global semiconductor competition [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Panda Bond market is experiencing rapid expansion, with issuance expected to reach a historical high in 2024, driven by policy support, domestic and foreign yield differentials, and the internationalization of the RMB [1][2]. Group 1: Panda Bond Market Development - Panda Bonds are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, marking a significant step in the dual opening of China's capital market and the internationalization of the RMB [2]. - The issuance scale for Panda Bonds reached 154.45 billion RMB in 2023 and is projected to hit 194.8 billion RMB in 2024, influenced by yield differentials, regulatory policies, and RMB internationalization [2]. Group 2: Issuance Characteristics - The majority of issuers are high-rated entities, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for 95.64% of the issuance in 2024, an increase of 3.67 percentage points from 2023 [3]. - Foreign participation has increased significantly, with foreign-invested enterprises making up 39% of issuers in 2024, up nearly 20 percentage points from 2023 [3]. - The banking, food and beverage, public utilities, and non-bank financial sectors represent 79.77% of the issuance, with banks seeing a 17.08 percentage point increase in their share [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate and Maturity Trends - The average issuance interest rate for Panda Bonds fell to 2.33% in 2024, a decrease of 53 basis points from 2023, with expectations for further decline to 1.96% in 2025 [4]. - The majority of bonds are issued with maturities of 2 to 5 years, which accounted for 72.07% of the issuance in 2024, an increase of 10.53 percentage points from 2023 [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - The regulatory environment for Panda Bonds has improved, enhancing participation from high-quality foreign issuers and investors [5]. - The financing cost advantage of Panda Bonds has become more pronounced due to the widening interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the 10-year U.S.-China yield spread exceeding 300 basis points [6][7]. - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with the currency gaining prominence in global payments and trade settlements, ranking as the fourth largest payment currency in 2024 [8]. Group 5: Investment Value and Strategy - The investor base for Panda Bonds primarily consists of commercial banks and non-legal entities, with non-legal entities holding 39.31% and commercial banks 34.08% of the total [11]. - The monthly trading volume of Panda Bonds increased by approximately 32% in 2024, indicating improved liquidity [12]. - The overall credit quality of Panda Bonds is high, with a significant portion of the bonds yielding below 2%, making them attractive for conservative investors [13][14]. - Opportunities for arbitrage exist between Panda Bonds and domestic bonds issued by the same corporate groups, allowing investors to capture yield differentials [18].