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银价创历史新高 后续走势如何?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 05:14
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching over $39 per ounce, is driven by a combination of industrial and financial demand, with significant inflows into silver ETFs contributing to the upward trend [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Performance - Silver has outperformed gold this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 35%, while gold has risen by more than 27% [3]. - The Shanghai silver futures have also seen a rise of approximately 22%, reaching a record high of 9,267 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The price of silver jewelry has increased by 15% to 20%, and sales of investment silver products have surged by over 40% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The strong performance of silver is attributed to the recovery of the gold-silver ratio, with the ratio rising from 80 to 105, indicating a relative undervaluation of silver [4]. - Geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, with significant implications for silver as a strategic investment [4]. - The "big and beautiful" legislation signed by Trump is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit to $3.6 trillion, raising concerns about sovereign debt risks and enhancing the strategic demand for precious metals [4]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - The rigid demand from the industrial sector, particularly from the photovoltaic industry in China, is expected to support silver prices, with projections indicating an increase in silver consumption in this sector [5]. - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to contribute significantly to silver demand, with electrical and electronic products expected to account for nearly 40% of global silver demand in 2024 [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Silver Association forecasts a 21% reduction in the global silver supply-demand gap by 2025, driven by a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply [6]. - Analysts suggest that the silver market may experience price volatility due to potential policy changes and technical corrections, with a possible short-term price pullback of 5% to 10% [7]. - Long-term projections indicate that the gold-silver ratio may have upward momentum, with expected trading ranges for silver prices between $36 and $35 per ounce in the upcoming quarters [7].