证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流入规模大幅回暖 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2026年3月2日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端：偏股型公募新发规模收缩至历史低位、杠杆资金净流出规模大幅回暖至历史高位、股票型ETF净流 出规模小幅收缩、回购金额维持在历史低位； 2）资金需求端：股权融资/产业资本净减持/南向资金净流入规模均出现收缩。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：轻工+22pct至41%、煤炭+15pct至34%、建材+14pct至 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流出规模续创25年4月以来新高 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2026年2月24日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 资金流动性：1）资金供给端：偏股型公募新发规模重回历史高位、杠杆资金净流出规模续创25年4月以来新高、 股票型ETF净流出规模扩大、回购金额收缩至历史低位；2）资金需求端：股权融资/产业资本净减持规模均小幅 扩张、南向资金净流入收缩至历史中高位。 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近 ...

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance of equity public funds has decreased to 8.42 billion units, down from 32.79 billion units, but remains at a historically high level[8] - The net outflow of margin financing has increased to 52.1 billion CNY, marking a 2% percentile over the past three years[13] - The net inflow of southbound funds has surged to 49.83 billion CNY, reaching a historical high and representing a 96% percentile[40] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 17 percentage points to 49%[46] - The trading heat for the liquor sector has risen by 10 percentage points to 15%[53] - The trading heat for the communication sector has also increased by 10 percentage points to 47%[66] - The trading heat for the home appliance sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 47%[53] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 162.44 billion CNY, a decrease of 54.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 87.4% percentile over the past five years[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.5% on February 2, leading to an increase in self-media search interest in A-shares[73]

Liquidity - The issuance of equity mutual funds reached 327.9 billion units, with actively managed funds at 231.2 billion units, marking a new high since 2022[6] - Margin financing net outflow was approximately -71 billion, placing it in the 23rd percentile over the past three years[13] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of -3168.2 billion, which is in the 1st percentile over the past three years[22] Market Trends - The total net outflow of broad-based ETFs exceeded 1 trillion, with significant outflows from the CSI 300 (-581.8 billion), CSI 1000 (-130.3 billion), and Shanghai Composite (-984 billion)[22] - The stock market showed high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 2% on January 30, leading to increased search interest in A-shares on social media[67] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 216.8 billion in A-shares, an increase of 969.7 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 95.6th percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, shifting towards growth and consumer sectors[2] Sector Performance - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector increased by 25 percentage points to 79%, while the consumer electronics sector decreased by 9 percentage points to 59%[45] - The demand for equity financing expanded to 159 billion, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years, while the net reduction in industrial capital decreased to -81.8 billion, ranking in the 74th percentile[27][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - issue scale of active equity funds reached a new high since 2022. - The capital supply and demand sides both contracted. - The trading congestion showed different trends in various industries. - The self - media A - share search popularity and retail investor capital inflows decreased. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Capital Liquidity: The New - issue Scale of Active Equity Funds Reached a New High Since 2022 1.1 Public Offering Equity New - issue Scale Increased - The newly - established share of public offering equity funds last week was 261.5 billion, a significant increase from the previous value of 97.4 billion. Among them, the newly - issued active funds were 217.1 billion, reaching a new high since 2022, and the newly - issued passive index funds were 44.3 billion. [8] 1.2 Margin Trading Funds: Net Outflow - The latest margin financing balance of 2.71 trillion decreased from the previous value, while the securities lending balance of 1.733 billion increased. The overall balance accounted for 2.61% of the floating - market value, at the 99th percentile in the past three years. - Margin trading funds had a net inflow of about - 8.11 billion last week, a sharp drop from the previous net inflow of 105.22 billion, at the 19th percentile in the past three years. The turnover accounted for 9.8% of the total A - share turnover, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous value. - The margin trading turnover ratio last week was 50.2%, down from 71.0% in the previous period, at the 88th percentile in the past three years. - The number of individual investors in margin trading business reached 7.933 million, with the average daily trading investors decreasing by 111,000 from the previous value. - Margin trading mainly had a net inflow of 5.07 billion in the non - ferrous metals industry, 2.14 billion in the non - banking financial industry, and 1.43 billion in the banking industry; and a net outflow of 4.06 billion in the electronics industry, 3.68 billion in the computer industry, and 2.63 billion in the media industry. [12][13][19] 1.3 Stock - type ETFs: Net Inflow of - 333.05 Billion, at the 0th Percentile in the Past Three Years - The overall net inflow of stock - type ETFs last week was - 333.05 billion, a significant drop from the previous net inflow of - 141.58 billion. The net flow was at the 0th percentile in the past three years, with large - cap ETFs having a net inflow of - 396.19 billion and thematic ETFs having a net inflow of 4.965 billion. [20] 1.4 Listed Company Repurchases: Repurchase Amount Decreased - The repurchase amount of listed companies last week was 260 million, down from 850 million in the previous period, at the 3rd percentile in the past three years. [22] 1.5 Equity Financing: Amount at the 41st Percentile in the Past Three Years - Based on the listing date, the equity financing amount last week was 715 million, at the 41st percentile in the past three years, including 47 million in IPOs and 669 million in refinancing. [25] 1.6 Industrial Capital Net Reduction Scale Decreased - Last week, industrial capital had an overall increase of 29.1 million and a reduction of - 1.213 billion, with a net reduction of - 1.184 billion, a decrease in scale compared to the previous value of - 1.863 billion. The net reduction scale was at the 90th percentile in the past three years. - By industry, there was a net increase of 0.01 billion in the banking industry last week; and net reductions of - 5.04 billion in the electronics industry, - 1.08 billion in the pharmaceutical industry, and - 0.94 billion in the computer industry. [28][33] 1.7 Restricted - share Unlocking Scale Increased - The market value of unlocked shares last week was 5.842 billion, an increase from the previous value of 5.141 billion, at the 56th percentile in the past three years. The expected market value of unlocked shares this week is 4.051 billion. [35] 1.8 Southbound Capital Net Inflow Increased - The southbound capital flow last week was + 2.101 billion, an increase from + 899 million in the previous week. The weekly net flow intensity was at the 72nd percentile in the past three years. [38] 1.9 Northbound Capital Participation Increased - The trading of northbound capital accounted for 6.9% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - shares last week, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The participation was at the 50th percentile in the past three years. [41] 2. Trading Congestion: Construction, Home Appliances, and Semiconductors Rose; Light Industry, Building Materials, and Communications Declined 2.1 Growth - themed Industries - The trading popularity percentile of the semiconductor industry increased by 7 percentage points to 23%. [46] 2.2 Value - themed Industries - The home appliance industry rose to 68%, and the insurance industry rose by 5 percentage points to 49%. [52] 2.3 Cycle - themed Industries - The construction industry rose by 10 percentage points to 49%, and the light industry decreased by 30 percentage points to 45%. [57][61] 2.4 TMT - themed Industries - The media industry rose by 6 percentage points to 75%, and the electronics industry rose by 5 percentage points to 29%. [67] 3. Investor Thermometer: Self - media A - share Search Popularity and Retail Investor Capital Inflows Decreased 3.1 Self - media: A - share Search Popularity Decreased - The market continued its structural differentiation last week. Under regulatory cooling, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated slightly upward, and the decline in market trading activity led to a decrease in the self - media A - share search popularity. [71] 3.2 Douyin Users Watching "A - share" Content - The structure distribution of Douyin users watching "A - share" content from January 17th to January 23rd was generally stable. The proportion of high - level cities such as new first - tier and second - tier cities decreased; and the proportion of the young group under 30 years old decreased. [74] 3.3 Kuaishou: "A - share" Video Playback Volume Decreased - From January 17th to January 23rd, the number of "A - share" videos on Kuaishou decreased by 116 compared to the previous period; the playback volume decreased by 2.674 million times; and the interaction volume decreased by 52,000 times. [78] 3.4 Weibo Sentiment: The Outflow of Broad - based ETFs Caused a Rise in Negative Sentiment on Weibo - The overall sentiment on Weibo was stable last week, but the large - scale outflow of broad - based ETFs led to a significant increase in negative sentiment. [80] 3.5 Public Offering Fund Clustering Trend - From January 19th to January 23rd, the public offering fund clustering trend strengthened, with a preference for the growth style and the electronics industry. [83] 3.6 Retail Investor Capital Inflow Decreased - In October 2024, the number of newly - opened accounts was 6.85 million, second only to April 2015 and June 2015 in history; in December 2025, it was 2.6 million, at the 75th percentile in the past decade. - From January 19th to January 23rd, the net inflow of retail investor capital in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - shares measured by small orders was 119.87 billion, a decrease of 129.43 billion from the previous value, at the 67.8th percentile in the past five years. [89] 3.7 Retail Investor Entry Channels: Download Volume Decreased - From January 17th to January 23rd, the cumulative download volume of Flush was 239,000 times, a decrease of 141,000 times from the previous value; the download volume of Eastmoney was 105,000 times, a decrease of 24,000 times from the previous value. The number of five - star reviews of Flush was 5,340 times, a decrease of 4,501 times from the previous value. [91]

Liquidity - The net inflow of margin financing reached a new high since October 1999, amounting to approximately 1052.2 billion CNY, up from 857.4 billion CNY in the previous period, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past three years[11] - The issuance of equity funds increased significantly to 1113.4 billion CNY, ranking in the 99th percentile over the past three years, with IPOs contributing 14.8 billion CNY and refinancing accounting for 1098.6 billion CNY[23] - The net outflow of stock ETFs was -1416 billion CNY, marking a significant decline and placing it in the 0th percentile over the past three years[18] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the media sector increased by 37 percentage points to 70%, while the medical services sector rose by 30 percentage points to 72%[40] - The construction materials sector saw a decline of 14 percentage points to 55%, and the light industry sector also decreased by 14 percentage points to 74%[50] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 2493.1 billion CNY, an increase of 935.9 billion CNY from the previous value, ranking in the 97.6th percentile over the past five years, marking the highest net inflow since February 1998[2] - The participation of northbound funds in the A-share market remained stable at 6.5%, consistent with the previous period and in the 36th percentile over the past three years[38]

Group 1: Liquidity - The supply side of funds is expanding, with the issuance of equity public funds dropping to a historical low of 10 billion yuan, while margin financing saw a net inflow of 857 billion yuan, the highest since August last year, placing it in the 97th percentile over the past three years[8] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4 billion yuan, with the net subscription remaining negative, at the 39th percentile over the past three years[8] - The total amount of repurchases reached 46 billion yuan, significantly up from 5 billion yuan, ranking in the 84th percentile over the past three years[26] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the insurance sector increased by 22 percentage points to 51%, while central enterprises rose by 20 percentage points to 78%, and medical services increased by 10 percentage points to 41%[3] - Conversely, the communication sector saw a decline of 13 percentage points to 54%, construction dropped by 12 percentage points to 39%, and light industry decreased by 8 percentage points to 89%[3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 155.7 billion yuan, an increase of 64.1 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it in the 86.2 percentile over the past five years[3] - The market sentiment was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive days of gains, indicating a clear upward trend and increasing trading volume[71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Funding liquidity**: Both the supply and demand sides have contracted. On the supply side, the new issuance scale of equity - focused public funds has declined, margin trading funds and stock - type ETFs have shown a significant contraction and turned into net outflows, and the repurchase amount remains at a historical low. On the demand side, equity financing and net industrial capital reduction have contracted to historical median levels, and south - bound funds have turned into net outflows [2][6] - **Trading congestion**: Using the ratio of the trading volume in the past four weeks to the market value (compared to the whole A - share market) as an indicator, the trading heat percentile of central state - owned enterprises, home appliances, and photovoltaic industries has increased, while that of machinery, banking, and medical services has decreased [2] - **Investor sentiment thermometer**: The market rebounded last week with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 11 - day consecutive increase and a moderate increase in trading volume. Affected by holidays, the self - media search popularity of A - shares decreased. The trend of public fund clustering has weakened, with a preference for value - style and financial and consumer industries. The net inflow of retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share markets has decreased [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding liquidity 1.1 Public equity new issuance scale - The newly established share of public equity funds last week was 57.9 billion shares, a decrease from the previous value of 94.4 billion shares. Among them, actively managed funds issued 13.9 billion shares, and passive index funds issued 44.0 billion shares [8] 1.2 Margin trading funds - **Overall situation**: The latest margin trading balance decreased, with the balance accounting for 2.58% of the market value of tradable shares, at the 96% percentile in the past three years. The net inflow of margin trading funds last week was about - 19.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous value, at the 35% percentile in the past three years. The trading volume accounted for 10.6% of the total A - share trading volume, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value, with the participation rate at the 88% percentile in the past three years. The turnover rate of margin trading decreased, while the number of individual investors participating in margin trading increased [12][13] - **Industry situation**: The net inflow was mainly in the military industry (51.8 billion yuan), home appliances (12.3 billion yuan), and public utilities (12.2 billion yuan), while the net outflow was in electronics (- 29.1 billion yuan), non - banking finance (- 23.4 billion yuan), and power equipment (- 15.6 billion yuan) [16][17] 1.3 Stock - type ETFs - The net inflow of stock - type ETFs last week was - 39.5 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value, at the 31.1% percentile in the past three years [18] 1.4 Listed company repurchases - The repurchase amount of listed companies last week was 5.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value, at the 6% percentile in the past three years [21] 1.5 Equity financing - The equity financing amount last week was 143.1 billion yuan, at the 63% percentile in the past three years, including 64.5 billion yuan from IPOs and 78.6 billion yuan from refinancing [23] 1.6 Industrial capital - **Overall situation**: The net reduction of industrial capital last week was - 49.4 billion yuan, a decrease in scale compared to the previous value, at the 59% percentile in the past three years [25] - **Industry situation**: The net increase was mainly in the petrochemical (2.6 billion yuan) and food and beverage (0.1 billion yuan) industries, while the net reduction was in the military industry (- 9.1 billion yuan), electronics (- 7.3 billion yuan), and machinery (- 7.1 billion yuan) industries [28][29] 1.7 Restricted - share lifting - The market value of restricted shares lifted last week was 571.7 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value, at the 53% percentile in the past three years. The expected market value of restricted shares to be lifted this week is 1632.8 billion yuan [31] 1.8 South - bound and north - bound funds - The net inflow of south - bound funds last week was - 34.3 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week, at the 5% percentile in the past three years. The trading volume of north - bound funds accounted for 6.0% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share trading volume, a 3.0 - percentage - point increase from the previous value affected by seasonality, with the participation rate at the 14% percentile in the past three years [34][37] 2. Trading congestion 2.1 Growth - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of the medical service industry decreased by 6 percentage points to 32% [42] 2.2 Value - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of central state - owned enterprises increased by 18 percentage points to 57%, and that of the home appliance industry increased by 7 percentage points to 52% [47] 2.3 Cyclical - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of the non - ferrous metals industry increased by 4 percentage points to 27%, while that of the machinery industry decreased by 10 percentage points to 7% [52][55] 2.4 TMT - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of the media industry decreased by 5 percentage points to 31%, and that of the electronics industry decreased by 4 percentage points to 40% [60] 3. Investor sentiment thermometer 3.1 Self - media - Affected by holidays, the self - media search popularity of A - shares decreased despite the market's rebound and the Shanghai Composite Index's 11 - day consecutive increase [65] 3.2 Douyin users - The proportion of users in high - level cities watching "A - share" content on Douyin decreased, while the proportion of young people under 23 years old increased [67] 3.3 Kuaishou - The number of "A - share" works on Kuaishou decreased by 89, the playback volume increased by 44,000 times, and the interaction volume decreased by 10,000 times compared to the previous period [71] 3.4 Weibo sentiment - The overall sentiment on Weibo was stable last week. The 11 - day consecutive increase of the Shanghai Composite Index led to a significant increase in positive and surprised emotions [73] 3.5 Fund style - The clustering trend of public funds weakened last week, with a preference for value - style and financial and consumer industries [76] 3.6 Retail funds - The net inflow of retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share markets was 91.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.82 billion yuan from the previous value, at the 42.3% percentile in the past five years [82] 3.7 Retail entry channels - The cumulative download volume of Flush reached 168,000 times, an increase of 34,000 times from the previous value, while the download volume of Eastmoney was 74,000 times, a decrease of 4,000 times from the previous value. The number of five - star reviews of Flush decreased by 1,510 times [84]

Liquidity - Leverage funds net inflow has returned to historical highs, with net inflow of 397 billion CNY, ranking in the 91st percentile over the past three years[7] - The new issuance of equity public funds increased to 94.4 billion CNY, up from 43 billion CNY, ranking in the 76th percentile[8] - Stock buybacks amounted to 9 billion CNY, up from 7 billion CNY, ranking in the 18th percentile[26] Demand - Equity financing reached 221 billion CNY, ranking in the 84th percentile, while net reduction in industrial capital was 126 billion CNY, ranking in the 92nd percentile[29] - Southbound capital net inflow dropped to 23 billion CNY, ranking in the 16th percentile[42] - The total market value of restricted shares released was 1921.3 billion CNY, significantly up from 349.2 billion CNY, ranking in the 98th percentile[39] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for central enterprises increased by 17 percentage points to 44%, while the construction materials sector rose by 10 percentage points to 71%[60] - The media sector saw a decline of 33 percentage points to 36%, and the computer sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 18%[68] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 1034.2 billion CNY, down by 397.3 billion CNY from the previous value, ranking in the 51.3 percentile over the past five years[2] - Overall market strength was observed with major indices achieving eight consecutive days of gains, indicating a positive market sentiment[74]

Liquidity - Stock-type ETF net inflow reached a new high since April this year, with a net inflow of 554.9 billion CNY, significantly up from a net outflow of 25.1 billion CNY previously, placing it at the 94th percentile over the past three years[25] - The supply side of funds is expanding, with stock-type public offerings continuing to shrink, and the net inflow of leveraged funds decreasing[4] - The demand side is contracting, with equity financing and industrial capital net reduction increasing, where the net reduction of industrial capital rose to a historical high of 120.1 billion CNY, placing it at the 91st percentile[4][34] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for insurance increased by 21 percentage points to 39%, while the heat for chemicals decreased by 18 percentage points to 30%[4][62] - The trading heat for light industry rose by 9 percentage points to 96%, and for electronics by 8 percentage points to 53%[4][62] - The trading heat for new energy vehicles decreased by 12 percentage points to 30%, and for banks by 10 percentage points to 26%[4][62] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 143.16 billion CNY, up by 30.73 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 80.7th percentile over the past five years[4] - The market continues to show cautious trading sentiment, with a temporary increase in A-share search heat on social media due to market volatility on December 16[4][76] - The trend of public fund clustering has weakened, with a shift towards value and cyclical consumption sectors[4]