Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a stable policy rate environment [1][2] - The stability in LPR quotes for three consecutive months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for adjustments in the short term [1] - There is an expectation of potential downward adjustments in LPR quotes in the future, particularly in the fourth quarter, as the central bank may implement new rounds of interest rate cuts to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic pressures [2] Group 2 - The articles highlight that the current low inflation levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to remain accommodative, including the possibility of interest rate cuts without immediate concerns over high inflation [2] - It is anticipated that regulatory measures will be strengthened in the second half of the year to support the real estate market, including potential reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for the five-year term, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Quotation and Monetary Policy - The LPR remained unchanged in June after a 10 basis points (bp) reduction in May, aligning with market expectations and suggesting limited necessity for further monetary policy easing in the near term [1][2]. - The new monetary policy framework positions the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate, enhancing the transmission of interest rates from short-term to long-term [2][4]. Group 2: Bank Margins and Economic Conditions - Bank net interest margins are under pressure, with the latest data showing a decline to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, down 9 bps from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The "four balances" principle introduced in this year's Two Sessions emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable interest margins as a key objective of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and External Factors - Analysts suggest that while there is potential for LPR adjustments, external uncertainties and the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy may limit the extent of future rate cuts [4][5]. - The PBOC's recent reduction of the provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points is expected to create room for further reductions in residential mortgage rates, which could stimulate housing demand [5].

东方金诚宏观研究 另外，考虑到下半年稳楼市政策需进一步加力，特别是 5 月 7 日央行宣布下调公积金贷 款利率 0.25 个百分点，为后期居民商业房贷利率下调打开了空间，预计下半年监管层有可能 通过单独引导 5 年期以上 LPR 报价下行等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。这是现阶 段缓解实际房贷利率偏高问题，激发购房需求，扭转楼市预期的关键一招。 1 6 月 LPR 报价持稳符合市场预期，下半年还有下调空间 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件： 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.0%，上月为 3.0%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上月为 3.5%。 解读： 6 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期。主要原因是 5 月央行实施政策 性降息后，当月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价同步下调，当前正在向贷款利率传导；6 月政策利 率保持不变，影响 LPR 报价加点的因素也没有发生重大变化，因此 6 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价不动符合市场预期。我们预计，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR 报价有可能继续保持稳 定。 往后看，下半年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, which is expected to reduce repayment pressure for borrowers while simultaneously leading to a decrease in deposit interest rates for savers [1][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections LPR Adjustment - The 1-year LPR has been reduced from 3.10% to 3.00%, and the 5-year LPR has decreased from 3.60% to 3.50% [1][3]. - This adjustment follows a series of financial policies announced by the central bank, including a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate [3][4]. Impact on Deposit Rates - Major banks have begun to lower deposit rates, with the interest rate for demand deposits dropping from 0.10% to 0.05% [1][8]. - The overall deposit rates are expected to decrease by approximately 0.11 to 0.13 percentage points, which will help stabilize banks' net interest margins [1][7]. Economic Context - The reduction in LPR is part of a broader strategy to stimulate investment and consumption amid external economic pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs [3][4]. - The central bank aims to lower financing costs for both enterprises and households, thereby enhancing domestic demand to counteract slowing external demand [3][4]. Future Expectations - Analysts predict that there is a significant likelihood of further reductions in the 5-year LPR to support the real estate market and address high mortgage rates [4][5]. - The banking sector anticipates additional interest rate cuts, which would align with the market-driven adjustments of deposit rates [5][9]. Market Dynamics - The current environment has led to a historical low in the net interest margin for commercial banks, recorded at 1.43%, which is below the 1.8% warning level [7][9]. - The trend of lowering deposit rates is expected to encourage more consumption and investment, thereby enhancing economic vitality and optimizing asset allocation [9].

Group 1: LPR Adjustment - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year terms was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.50% respectively[1] - This marks the first reduction after six months of stability, driven by a recent package of financial policies from the central bank[2] - The adjustment reflects a change in the pricing basis for LPR, indicating a transmission of policy rate adjustments to loan market rates[2] Group 2: Economic Context - The reduction in LPR is a response to the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical adjustments in macro policy[2] - Lowering policy rates aims to stimulate domestic demand to offset external demand slowdown, thereby stabilizing economic operations[2] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to ongoing uncertainties in the external environment[3] Group 3: Impact on Deposits and Banks - The 1-year LPR reduction is anticipated to lead to a comprehensive decrease in deposit rates, averaging a decline of 0.1 percentage points[4] - Short-term deposit rates will see smaller reductions, while longer-term deposit rates may experience more significant declines[4] - The latest data shows that the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points, marking a historical low[4]

Group 1: LPR Pricing Analysis - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[4] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and historically low bank net interest margins, reducing the incentive for banks to lower LPR[7] - The LPR has not changed since the beginning of the year, reflecting a strong economic performance in Q1, despite a shift in monetary policy towards moderate easing[7] Group 2: Future Expectations - A policy interest rate cut is anticipated in Q2, potentially leading to a 30 basis point reduction in LPR, similar to the total cut from the previous year[7] - This expected reduction in LPR is aimed at lowering financing costs for businesses and households, thereby stimulating consumption and investment to enhance domestic demand[7] - Future LPR adjustments may pressure banks' net interest margins, which will be mitigated by guiding deposit rates downwards and reducing funding costs[8]