| | | | | | ※ 华福宏观 陈兴团队 ※ | | | | | | 欢迎关注: | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2026 宏观经济日历 | | | | | | 陈兴宏观研究 | | | | | | 数据名称 | 时间 | 1月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 | | | PMI | 9:30 | 31/六 | | 4/三 31/二 | 30/四 | 31/日 | 30/二 | 31/五 | 31/- | 30/三 | 31/六 | 30/- | 31/四 | | | 外贸数据 | - | 14/ 三 | | 10/二 | 14/二 | 9/六 | 9/二 | 14/二 | 71五 | 8/二 | 14/ 三 | 10/ 二 | 81 -- | | | 金融数据* | 16:00-19:00 | 12/一 | 13/五 | 13/五 ...

往后看，支持30年期与10年期国债利差进一步走扩的因素包括：股债性价比持续变化导致保险机构配置 盘减少、长久期负债减少导致银行对超长端配置需求减弱，以及若经济基本面改善斜率变陡带来债 市"牛""熊"切换。不过，若2026年政府债发行规模在超长端期限分配上较2025年明显减少，则预期差可 能带动利差收窄。 总体而言，基于当前全球流动性宽松、全球资本再配置的逻辑未改，以及国内基本面和政策面趋稳，短 期债市仍处于承压状态。30年期国债短期双向波动幅度加大，其与10年期国债的利差亦不排除进一步走 扩的可能。 12月，债市震荡运行，年末配置行情迟迟未现，特别是超长端，表现偏弱。近期，货币政策预期稳定。 12月22日，LPR报价持平。12月24日，央行公布将开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年，考虑到到期 3000亿元，则净投放1000亿元。截至12月24日（周三）下午，10年期、30年期国债活跃券收益率分别报 1.8370%、2.22%，较11月底分别上行0.8和4个基点。本周前3个交易日，收益率先涨后跌，30年期有初 步企稳迹象，10年期、30年期国债期货主力合约累计涨幅分别为0.14%和0.49%。交易者关注30 ...

12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价：1年期品种报 3.0%，上月为3.0%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上月为3.5%。两个期限品种的LPR报价自今年 6月以来保持不变，市场分析人士对此怎么看？近日举行的中央经济工作会议对明年货币政 策取向给出何种定调？降息降准落地的窗口期大概率是何时？ 东方金诚研究团队预计，综合明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，政策性降息幅度有可能达到0.2至0.3个 百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点，上、下半年分别实施一次。 贷款增速回落释放经济转型信号 货币政策保持定力，明年一季度打开降息窗口？ 回顾2025年全年，LPR报价仅在5月下调了一次，当时两个期限品种的LPR报价均下调10个基点，带动 企业和居民贷款利率下调，以降低实体经济融资成本。但自6月以来，LPR报价连续7个月"按兵不动"。 就此，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对南都N视频记者表示，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口持续超 预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性超出 普遍预期。下半年以来，经济增长动能有所弱化，但实现全年"5.0%左右"的经济增长目 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货预计震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡回调。目前国债期货上有压力下有支撑，驱动力量 不强，维持震荡整理。一方面，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，明年货币政 策环境偏向宽松，降息降准仍可期。叠加目前市场利率隐含的降息预 期较弱，国债期货具有较强支撑。另一方面，短期内宏观经济数据具 有较强韧性，短期内全面降息的紧迫性不强，叠加近期内外环境的不 确定性扰动较少，国债期货缺乏上行驱动。总的来说，短期内国债期货 以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接 ...

12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价，1年期品种报3.0%，上月为 3.0%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上月为3.5%。 东方金诚宏观研究团队表示，12月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，有两个直接原因：首先，近期政 策利率（央行7天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，这意味着12月LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化，已在很 大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动；另外，12月以来包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA 级）在内的主要中长端市场利率稳中有升，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有上升，在商业银行净息 差处于历史最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：潘福达 LPR报价已连续七个月保持不变。中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏认为，目前市场流动性总体较为充 裕，央行通过公开市场操作精准调控流动性，利率水平也处于较低水平，银行净息差本身较低，也需要 维持合理的净息差更好地服务实体经济。 LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是：受年初以来出口持续超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发 展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性超出普 ...

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for November remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates since the last announcement on October 20, indicating no significant changes in the pricing basis[2] - The lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR rates is due to historically low net interest margins, despite a slight decrease in financing costs in the money market[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Recent economic indicators show a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, with export growth turning negative, raising concerns about economic momentum[3] - To stabilize economic performance in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, it is anticipated that monetary policy may shift towards a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end[3] - The low current price levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to adopt a moderately accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts[3] Group 3: Housing Market Policies - There is an expectation for stronger policies to stabilize the housing market, potentially leading to a reduction in the 5-year LPR to lower residential mortgage rates significantly[4] - This move is seen as crucial for alleviating high actual mortgage rates and stimulating housing market demand[4]

Core Viewpoint - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remain unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, indicating stability in the monetary policy environment and aligning with market expectations [2][3] Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year LPR is quoted at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month, marking five consecutive months of stability since a decline in May [2] - Analysts suggest that the stability in LPR is due to the unchanged policy rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained stable throughout October [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent increases in major medium to long-term market interest rates, including the AAA-rated 1-year interbank certificates of deposit, have led to a slight rise in commercial banks' financing costs [2] - The current environment of historically low net interest margins for commercial banks reduces the incentive for banks to actively lower LPR quotes [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts predict potential downward adjustments in policy rates and LPR quotes by the end of the year, driven by efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts may further ease external constraints on China's monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of new rounds of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the LPR rates for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for four consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Rates - The 1-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged for four months [2] - The stability in policy rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicates no changes in the pricing basis for LPR this month [2] Group 2: Future Expectations - Industry experts anticipate a potential new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which may lead to a decrease in LPR rates [2] - A significant reduction in loan rates for enterprises and residents is expected, aimed at stimulating internal financing demand and promoting consumption and investment [2] - There is an expectation for stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market, potentially leading to a more substantial decrease in residential mortgage rates through targeted adjustments to the 5-year LPR [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations [1] - The stability in LPR quotes is attributed to unchanged policy rates and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins [1] - Macro data such as consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown a decline due to multiple factors including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments, but fiscal policies have been strengthened [1] Group 2 - The high tariff policies from the U.S. are expected to further impact global trade and China's exports in Q4, increasing the necessity for policies aimed at stabilizing growth and employment [3] - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in Q4, which could lead to lower LPR quotes and stimulate internal financing demand [3] - The need for stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market is anticipated, with expectations for regulatory measures to guide down the 5-year LPR, thereby reducing mortgage rates and boosting housing demand [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a stable policy rate environment [1][2] - The stability in LPR quotes for three consecutive months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for adjustments in the short term [1] - There is an expectation of potential downward adjustments in LPR quotes in the future, particularly in the fourth quarter, as the central bank may implement new rounds of interest rate cuts to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic pressures [2] Group 2 - The articles highlight that the current low inflation levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to remain accommodative, including the possibility of interest rate cuts without immediate concerns over high inflation [2] - It is anticipated that regulatory measures will be strengthened in the second half of the year to support the real estate market, including potential reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand [2]