Market Overview - A-shares showed strength on June 24, with 4,729 stocks rising, and the ChiNext index increasing by over 2.00% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rose by more than 1% [1] Sector Performance - The energy sector, particularly oil and gas stocks, experienced significant declines due to a sharp drop in international oil prices [2] - Key sectors that saw declines include: - Energy Equipment: -5.51% - Shipping: -3.27% - Oil and Gas: -2.86% - Gas: -2.30% - Aerospace and Military: -1.43% [3] Individual Stock Movements - Notable declines in individual stocks include: - Keli Co., Ltd.: -23.06% at a price of 40.93 - Potential Energy: -20.03% at a price of 6.19 - De Shi Co.: -11.39% at a price of 17.03 - Other significant declines include: - Shandong Molong: -23.89% at a price of 4.30 - Sinopec Oilfield Service: -14.63% at a price of 0.70 [4][5] Oil Price Movement - International oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude oil dropping over 8% and continuing to decline by more than 3% as of June 24 [6] - Domestic crude oil futures opened at a limit down [6] LPG Futures - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures hit the limit down, with the Dalian Commodity Exchange LPG index dropping nearly 6% [8] Geopolitical Factors - Market concerns regarding Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions have eased, leading to a significant reduction in geopolitical risk premiums [10] - Reports indicate that Iran has agreed to cease attacks under certain conditions set by Israel, although no formal ceasefire agreement has been reached [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, highlighting the potential impact on the oil market and specific companies within the oil and gas sector. Group 1: Oil Price Fluctuations - On June 13, international oil prices surged by nearly 14%, following a previous increase of about 6%, driven by U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East and rising geopolitical concerns [1][3] - The oil and gas sector in Hong Kong saw substantial gains, with companies like Shandong Molong rising by 75% and Sinopec Oilfield Services increasing by 25% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The article notes that Israel conducted unexpected military strikes against Iran, targeting key nuclear facilities and high-ranking officials, which escalated tensions in the region [4][5] - Iran's response included launching over 100 drones and hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israeli targets, although the effectiveness of this retaliation has been questioned [5][6] Group 3: Potential Oil Market Impact - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route, could lead to a significant spike in oil prices, with estimates suggesting prices could reach between $120 to $300 per barrel if such a blockade occurs [9][10][12] - Historical context indicates that while Iran has threatened to block the Strait in the past, actual implementation is complicated by economic self-interest and external pressures [10][11][12] Group 4: Company Performance and Outlook - Despite the volatility in oil prices, companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have shown resilience, with a significant increase in net profit margins compared to its peers [17][19] - CNOOC's operational efficiency is highlighted by its lower production costs, which are around $28.5 per barrel, allowing it to maintain profitability even during price fluctuations [19][20] - The company is expected to continue increasing its oil production, with projections of 726.8 million barrels for 2024, reflecting a 7.2% year-on-year growth [20][23] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that if geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the oil and gas sector in Hong Kong could experience a positive market response, particularly for smaller-cap oil stocks [24][25] - CNOOC is positioned as a strong investment choice due to its cost advantages and consistent dividend payouts, making it attractive in a market with reduced risk appetite [25]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production by 1.37 million barrels per day, but actual supply growth may be significantly lower due to various constraints [1][4] - The agreed production increase from March to July includes contributions from several member countries, with Saudi Arabia contributing the largest increase of 167,000 barrels per day [5] - Compliance issues from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan raise concerns about their ability to meet production targets, potentially reducing the actual supply increase to 972,000 barrels per day, which is only 71% of the nominal increase [7] Group 2 - Domestic oil consumption in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, is expected to rise significantly during the summer peak, potentially consuming over 80% of the increased production from Saudi Arabia alone [7] - Historical data indicates that Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption surged by 460,000 barrels per day from March to July last year, suggesting a similar trend could occur this year [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, EB2506 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 6880. The supply pressure of styrene spot will increase as 1.25 million - ton devices of Wanhua and Zhejiang Petrochemical are restarted successively. The demand for EPS, PS, and ABS is average with high finished - product inventories. The foreign trade environment is difficult to improve significantly due to policy uncertainties. During the National Day, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene spot will intensify. The international oil price is expected to fluctuate, and the demand for pure benzene is limited. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures is 7079 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 118 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 499,258, a decrease of 122,093 [2]. - The long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 420,282 lots, an increase of 12,928 lots; the net long - position volume is - 8968 lots, a decrease of 2678 lots; the short - position volume is 429,250 lots, an increase of 15,606 lots [2]. - The futures open interest of the active contract is 322,306 lots, an increase of 18,075 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots [2]. - The spot price of styrene is 7838 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea middle price is 880.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the CFR China middle price is 890.5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7475 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton), 7465 yuan/ton (a decrease of 35 yuan/ton), 7425 yuan/ton (a decrease of 100 yuan/ton), and 7315 yuan/ton (a decrease of 80 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The middle prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 791 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 871 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 806 US dollars/ton (an increase of 11 US dollars/ton), and 457 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton) respectively [2]. - The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB), Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB) are 251 US cents/gallon (a decrease of 34.06 US cents/gallon), 722.27 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 669 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton) respectively. The market prices in South, East, and North China are 6000 yuan/ton (a decrease of 200 yuan/ton), 5970 yuan/ton (a decrease of 125 yuan/ton), and 6100 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant production in China from April 18th to 24th was 311,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.93%, a month - on - month increase of 1.16% [2]. - The national styrene inventory is 216,307 tons, a decrease of 2177 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port is 86,500 tons, a decrease of 9100 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port is 65,100 tons, a decrease of 5000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of styrene, EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 67.93% (an increase of 1.16%), 57.04% (a decrease of 2.03%), 65.08% (a decrease of 1.91%), 58.7% (a decrease of 2.1%), 28% (unchanged), and 71.95% (a decrease of 1.29%) respectively [2]. - From April 18th to 24th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene in China was 252,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.73% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 311,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.93%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.16% [2]. - From April 18th to 24th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene in China was 252,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.73% [2]. - As of April 24th, the styrene plant inventory was 216,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; as of April 28th, the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 85,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the inventory in South China ports was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.02% [2].