Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near term. Although the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC and the government's action to study price - related standards provide some support, factors such as the decline in PVC开工率, high inventory, low demand in the traditional off - season, and falling prices of related commodities like coking coal suppress the market [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 also declined slightly, and orders for downstream products are poor [1]. - India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about Chinese exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China lowered its December quotes by $30 - 60 per ton, export orders declined [1]. - Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas [1]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into operation. But the开工 rate of some production enterprises is expected to decline, and the decline in production is limited [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4,273 yuan/ton, a high of 4,340 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,276 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.59%. The position volume decreased by 50,472 lots to 831,217 lots [2]. [基差方面] - On December 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,305 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,276 yuan/ton. The current basis is 29 yuan/ton, strengthening by 37 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a neutral level [3]. [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: The operation of some devices such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu has declined. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities from several companies have been put into operation or are in the process of production [4]. - **Demand**: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, there were significant year - on - year declines in real estate investment, sales, new construction, and completion. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% month - on - month, at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 4, PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% month - on - month to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and remains high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC market is in a weak and volatile state recently. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have some positive effects, factors such as the decline in PVC downstream demand, high inventory, new production capacity, and the traditional off - season in December lead to a weak market sentiment [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89% compared with the previous period, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly, and the orders for downstream products were poor [1]. - India terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, but after the price cut of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December, the export orders declined, and last week's export orders were basically stable [1]. - Social inventory continued to increase last week and is still at a high level, with relatively large inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large [1]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into production. Although relevant departments are studying price - related work to boost bulk commodities, the start - up expectations of some production enterprises are decreasing, and the decline in production is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the traditional off - season in December and the decline in coking coal prices suppress the market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,311 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,383 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,328 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.39%. The position decreased by 37,746 lots to 881,689 lots [2]. Basis - On December 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,320 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,328 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 8 yuan/ton, strengthening by 24 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up of some devices such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu decreased. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into production [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% compared with the previous period, at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% compared with the previous period to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. Although the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition cost standards offer some support, factors such as the decline in the Taiwan Plastics' December quotes, the traditional off - season in December, high inventory, and slow real - estate improvement lead to limited positive impacts, and the PVC price is likely to continue its weak performance [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC production rate decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream production rate also declined slightly, and the downstream product orders are poor [1]. - India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, reducing concerns about Chinese PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled, but the Taiwan Plastics' December quotes dropped by 30 - 60 dollars per ton, and last week's export orders decreased [1]. - The social inventory of PVC continued to increase. As of the week of December 4, it increased by 1.55% to 105.89 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still large [1][6]. - The real - estate industry is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion areas of real - estate decreased significantly year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study price competition cost standards, which gave some boost to bulk commodities. However, the expected decline in the production rates of some enterprises led to only a limited decrease in PVC output, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PVC2601 contract decreased by 1.71% to 4426 yuan per ton, with a low of 4413 yuan per ton and a high of 4503 yuan per ton. The trading volume increased by 7370 lots to 997451 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On December 5, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan per ton. The basis of the V2601 contract was - 16 yuan per ton, strengthening by 49 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a slightly low - neutral level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The production rates of some enterprises such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu decreased. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 50 - million - ton - per - year plant in production since August, Tianjin Bohua's 40 - million - ton - per - year plant expected to be stably producing by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf's 20 - million - ton - per - year plant close to full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 30 - million - ton - per - year plants operating at low loads after commissioning [4]. - **Demand**: The real - estate industry improvement needs time. From January to October 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, new construction area, and completion area also decreased significantly year - on - year. As of the week of November 30, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% month - on - month but remained near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% to 105.89 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still at a high level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the late peak season, with limited follow - up of orders. The supply has new capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing materials rose to about 28.5% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly and is now at a high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices, and the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of Guangxi Petrochemical of CNPC was put into operation in mid - October [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on price competition gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP was limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6391 yuan/ton, the highest was 6426 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6410 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.08%. The position decreased by 19,931 lots to 469,013 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions showed mixed trends. The drawing materials were reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 28, the downstream start - up rate of PP rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 735,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 02 fluctuated around $63/barrel, and China CFR propylene price rose by $15/ton week - on - week to $750/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to move in a range. Although there are some positive factors such as the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition standards, the recent upside space is limited due to factors like high inventory, upcoming traditional demand off - season, and falling quotes from China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream PVC production capacity utilization is basically stable. India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about China's exports to India, and the anti - dumping tax is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes fell by 30 - 60 dollars/ton, and last week's export orders decreased. Social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. The meeting on price competition standards gives some boost to commodities, but factors like the end of maintenance at some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the upcoming demand off - season limit the upside space [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and moved in a range, with a low of 4544 yuan/ton, a high of 4576 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 4575 yuan/ton, up 0.31% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 47,480 lots to 1,024,038 lots [2] - On December 2, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4500 yuan/ton, the V2601 contract's futures closing price was 4489 yuan/ton, the basis was - 75 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the operation of some plants such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai improved, and the PVC production capacity utilization increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run at different loads [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year; the sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year; the new construction area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.8% year - on - year; and the completed area of houses was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week ending November 30, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week but is still near the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 27, PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows an upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as high inventory, low downstream demand, and price decline of related products [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is at a low level. India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases export concerns, but the price of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, in December has generally dropped by 30 - 60 dollars/ton. The social inventory has slightly increased and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. Although the government's research on price competition gives a certain boost to bulk commodities, the upward space of PVC is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with the lowest price of 4525 yuan/ton, the highest price of 4562 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4549 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.07% and a decrease in the position volume of 73,842 lots to 1,118,577 lots [2]. - In terms of the basis, on November 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4445 yuan/ton, the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4489 yuan/ton, and the current basis was - 72 yuan/ton, weakening by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The operating rates of devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [1][4]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, sales amount, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all showed year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 23, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 27, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory was still high [6].