Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for xylene is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract experiencing fluctuations and a price increase of approximately 2.10% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for xylene opened at 7234.0 CNY/ton and reached a high of 7414.0 CNY, with a low of 7180.0 CNY during the trading session [1]. - The overall market performance for xylene is characterized by a strong upward trend, indicating positive sentiment among traders [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Newhu Futures reports that the recent rise in crude oil prices and tight supply expectations for PX have led to strong price performance and profit expansion [2]. - Despite a recent recovery in PX supply and weakening downstream demand, the overall supply-demand balance remains favorable until new production capacities are introduced in the third quarter [2]. - New Century Futures highlights that geopolitical instability and lower-than-expected crude oil exports from Venezuela are contributing to the upward pressure on oil prices, while PX supply remains relatively loose [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Wuzhou Futures indicates that high PX operating rates and seasonal maintenance in downstream PTA are expected to maintain a stockpiling trend for PX [2]. - The mid-term outlook for PX remains optimistic, with expectations of strong demand from downstream PTA after the Spring Festival, despite short-term volatility [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market in the energy and chemical sector showed significant gains, with PTA futures rising sharply by 2.88% to 5280.00 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for PTA had a generally moderate trading atmosphere, with the cash basis strengthening. December contracts were traded at a discount of 10-16, with prices ranging from 4995 to 5110 yuan [2] - The processing margin for PTA is currently low, leading to an increased willingness for maintenance, with attention on unexpected maintenance plans [2] Group 2 - On the demand side, polyester operating rates remain high, but negative feedback from terminal weaving is expected to emerge [2] - The short-term processing fee for PTA is limited without further stimulus, while upstream PXN remains unaffected by the off-season, providing upward support under strong expectations [2] - The Brent crude oil price is rebounding from a five-year low, with low oil prices and currency depreciation still supporting oil prices amid complex geopolitical situations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space for the 01 contract may be limited. It is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3] Core Viewpoints - The market is fluctuating, and PXN is relatively strong. The overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, but market differentiation caused by sanctions still exists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [1] - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% month - on - month increase). Although recent weaving orders have weakened marginally, the short - term risk of a significant decline in polyester load is low, and it is expected to remain around 91% [2] - For PX, with the support of polyester start - up, PXN has support, but the high - level PX load and individual device expansions limit its rebound space. Attention should be paid to the situation of blending into gasoline [1][3] - For TA, recent maintenance is concentrated, demand for exports has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. In the medium to long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1][3] - For PF, the load is at a high level, factory inventories have decreased to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support, but demand is weakening marginally [2][3] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. Maintenance continues, but the demand in the off - season is average. The spot processing fees of bottle chips are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The content includes toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea FOB and Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It presents PTA weekly social inventories, PX monthly social inventories, and various types of warehouse receipt inventories such as PTA and PX [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The report contains information on filament and short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, and the start - up rates of related downstream industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [48][50][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes details such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and the load of recycled cotton - type staple fibers, as well as production and processing data of related yarns [70][82][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The content involves polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and export profits of bottle chips [89][95][99]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to enter a short - term volatile market with expanding profits, and it is recommended to hold long PXN positions [3]. - PTA shows a weak trend, and it is advisable to hold long PTA and short PX positions and 1 - 5 backwardation [4]. - MEG has a weak trend due to cost collapse, and it is recommended to reduce short positions below 4000 yuan/ton and maintain 1 - 5 backwardation [5]. - The polyester industry's consumption is expected to improve as the weather turns cold and with the marginal increase in Double Eleven orders, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PXN is at 246 dollars/ton (+16), and the PX - MX Korea FOB spread is 102 dollars (+3). The decline in crude oil prices has led to the expansion of PX profits again [3]. - The unilateral PX price has been continuously decreasing due to negative demand feedback and weak cost support. The PX outer - market monthly spread is generally stable, while PXN has weakened significantly [19][25]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. The PX - MX spread has weakened significantly, and the Asian MX blending oil market has recovered [29][42]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - This week, the domestic PX plant operating rate is 84.9% (-3.5%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78% (-1.9%). Multiple overseas plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight [3][55]. - In August, the PX import volume was 880,000 tons, and the import volume from South Korea increased significantly. The estimated import volume in September is 850,000 tons [56]. - In September, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong dropped to 3.92 million tons (+30,000 tons) [70]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PTA is in backwardation. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [76][82]. - The PTA basis has declined due to negative demand feedback, sufficient supply in East China, and the planned commissioning of new plants [77]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 76.7% (+2.3%). The new Fengming PTA plant is planned to start operation this week, and the production volume this week is 1.45 million tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the new Indian PTA plant GAIL [4][86]. - In August, the PTA export volume was 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [90]. - The PTA inventory is at a low level [103]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG basis is maintained at around 70 yuan/ton. MEG's valuation relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to the highest level this year [119][124]. - The profit of coal - based MEG plants is 47 yuan/ton (-171), while oil - based plants continue to operate at a loss [127]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG operating rate has reached a new high this year. This week, the operating rate continued to rise, and some plants will undergo maintenance and shutdown next week, which may cause a slight decline [129][130]. - In August, the MEG import volume was about 590,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in September [131]. - Multiple overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [138][141]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [146]. Polyester Segment Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (-0.1%). The profit of the polyester segment has been repaired, and the bottle - chip segment with successful inventory management is expected to increase its load, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [150][153]. - The polyester production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year [157].

Supply and Demand - As of July 11, domestic PX operating rate increased to 81.3% (+0.3%) while Asian PX operating rate decreased to 73.6% (-0.5%) [2] - As of July 11, PTA operating rate increased to 79.7% (+1.5%) [3] Price Trends - On July 16, Asian PX prices continued to decline, with a decrease of $3/ton to $834/ton, equivalent to 6876 RMB/ton [1] - PX spot prices are expected to stabilize with September estimated in the range of +12/+14 and October in +2/+8.5 for negotiations [1] - A transaction for September Asian spot PX was completed at $836.5 and for October at $830 [1] Market Outlook - Due to previous PXN recovery, delayed domestic maintenance schedules, and gradual recovery of overseas PX supply, PX is expected to face short-term pressure [4] - However, the anticipated commissioning of new PTA facilities suggests a tight supply-demand balance for PX, providing some support at lower price levels [4] - PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term within the range of 6600-6900 RMB [4]

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased slightly to 83.8% (-1.8%) while Asian PX operating rates fell to 73% (-1.3%) [2] - Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating capacity to 3.6 million tons, leading to PTA operating rates dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) [2] Market Outlook - Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the likelihood of escalation remains low, with limited support for oil prices from OPEC+ expected to increase production in August [3] - Domestic PX facilities are anticipated to undergo maintenance in July, while downstream PTA and polyester operating rates are relatively high, alongside new PTA production expected in Q3, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for PX [3] - PXN is recovering to around $300/ton, which may lead to delays in maintenance plans for some facilities, but weak terminal demand and limited oil price support may restrict PX rebound potential [3] - Short-term PX price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6600-6900, with caution advised near the upper boundary [3] Pricing and Cost - On June 30, Asian PX prices increased by $6/ton to $874/ton, equivalent to 7211 RMB/ton, while PXN was around $301/ton [1] - PX prices remained under pressure from raw material trends, with the market showing a relatively strong trading atmosphere despite some fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - PX prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound this week, with the September contract dropping by 324 yuan to 6752 yuan, and spot CFR China prices decreasing by 28 USD to 868 USD [1] - Supply side analysis indicates that China's PX operating rate is at 83.8%, down 1.8% week-on-week, while Asia's operating rate is at 73%, down 1.3% week-on-week [1] - Korean PX exports to China in mid-June reached 243,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons year-on-year, while domestic maintenance season has ended with fewer upcoming maintenance plans [1] Group 2 - Demand side shows PTA operating rate at 77.7%, down 1.4% week-on-week, with a reduction in load from Yisheng New Materials [1] - As of the end of May, social inventory stood at 4.346 million tons, with a reduction of 165,000 tons month-on-month, continuing the trend of inventory reduction into June [1] - The valuation cost for PXN as of June 26 is 283 USD, an increase of 21 USD year-on-year, while the naphtha crack spread has risen by 14 USD to 80 USD [1] Group 3 - The geopolitical easing led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which in turn affected PX prices; however, strong fundamentals supported the PXN [1] - With the maintenance season for PX concluded and operating rates remaining high, PXN is expected to expand in the short term due to liquidity tightening and downstream production expectations [1] - The third quarter may see continued inventory reduction for PX due to new PTA installations coming online, with current valuations at a neutral to slightly elevated level [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]