Supply and Demand - As of July 11, domestic PX operating rate increased to 81.3% (+0.3%) while Asian PX operating rate decreased to 73.6% (-0.5%) [2] - As of July 11, PTA operating rate increased to 79.7% (+1.5%) [3] Price Trends - On July 16, Asian PX prices continued to decline, with a decrease of $3/ton to $834/ton, equivalent to 6876 RMB/ton [1] - PX spot prices are expected to stabilize with September estimated in the range of +12/+14 and October in +2/+8.5 for negotiations [1] - A transaction for September Asian spot PX was completed at $836.5 and for October at $830 [1] Market Outlook - Due to previous PXN recovery, delayed domestic maintenance schedules, and gradual recovery of overseas PX supply, PX is expected to face short-term pressure [4] - However, the anticipated commissioning of new PTA facilities suggests a tight supply-demand balance for PX, providing some support at lower price levels [4] - PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term within the range of 6600-6900 RMB [4]

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased slightly to 83.8% (-1.8%) while Asian PX operating rates fell to 73% (-1.3%) [2] - Yisheng New Materials reduced its operating capacity to 3.6 million tons, leading to PTA operating rates dropping to 77.7% (-1.4%) [2] Market Outlook - Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the likelihood of escalation remains low, with limited support for oil prices from OPEC+ expected to increase production in August [3] - Domestic PX facilities are anticipated to undergo maintenance in July, while downstream PTA and polyester operating rates are relatively high, alongside new PTA production expected in Q3, indicating a tight supply-demand balance for PX [3] - PXN is recovering to around $300/ton, which may lead to delays in maintenance plans for some facilities, but weak terminal demand and limited oil price support may restrict PX rebound potential [3] - Short-term PX price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6600-6900, with caution advised near the upper boundary [3] Pricing and Cost - On June 30, Asian PX prices increased by $6/ton to $874/ton, equivalent to 7211 RMB/ton, while PXN was around $301/ton [1] - PX prices remained under pressure from raw material trends, with the market showing a relatively strong trading atmosphere despite some fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - PX prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound this week, with the September contract dropping by 324 yuan to 6752 yuan, and spot CFR China prices decreasing by 28 USD to 868 USD [1] - Supply side analysis indicates that China's PX operating rate is at 83.8%, down 1.8% week-on-week, while Asia's operating rate is at 73%, down 1.3% week-on-week [1] - Korean PX exports to China in mid-June reached 243,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons year-on-year, while domestic maintenance season has ended with fewer upcoming maintenance plans [1] Group 2 - Demand side shows PTA operating rate at 77.7%, down 1.4% week-on-week, with a reduction in load from Yisheng New Materials [1] - As of the end of May, social inventory stood at 4.346 million tons, with a reduction of 165,000 tons month-on-month, continuing the trend of inventory reduction into June [1] - The valuation cost for PXN as of June 26 is 283 USD, an increase of 21 USD year-on-year, while the naphtha crack spread has risen by 14 USD to 80 USD [1] Group 3 - The geopolitical easing led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, which in turn affected PX prices; however, strong fundamentals supported the PXN [1] - With the maintenance season for PX concluded and operating rates remaining high, PXN is expected to expand in the short term due to liquidity tightening and downstream production expectations [1] - The third quarter may see continued inventory reduction for PX due to new PTA installations coming online, with current valuations at a neutral to slightly elevated level [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]