贵金属日报: 地缘局势升温 黄金受益上涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月12日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场黄金收高，白银和钯金震荡调整，铂金则继续大涨。周三晚间公布的美CPI略低于预期 曾一度助推黄金上涨，因降息预期回升，但很快黄金冲高回落。然中东地缘局势升级担忧为金价上涨提供 重要支持，并伴随油价大涨。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3376美元/盎司，+0.98%；美白银2507合 约收报于36.36美元/盎司，-0.77%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报777.54元/克，+0.56%；SHFE白银 2508合约收8902元/千克，-0.28%。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线走势分化，黄金延续震荡，伦敦金阻力3400，3438，3500。伦敦银则维持偏强 状态，上方目标位已上移至40区域，但日线有调整压力，支撑35.9-36区域，关键支撑34.8-35区域。我 们仍将短线回调视为中长期做多机会。 贵金属期现价格表 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Points - The article highlights a significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, which surged by 270% in May, amounting to $23 billion, compared to the same month last year [4]. Market Overview - U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq dropping by 0.5% amid rising tensions in the Middle East and a moderate inflation report that eased concerns over tariff-driven price pressures [2]. - The U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield dropping to 3.94% and the 10-year yield to 4.41%, indicating a stable demand for government bonds despite a recent auction showing a lower bid-to-cover ratio [3]. - The consumer price index (CPI) for May rose by 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5%, suggesting that tariffs may not have a significant immediate impact on inflation [3][4]. Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's stock saw a minor increase of 0.1%, influenced by CEO Elon Musk's recent comments regarding his social media posts about President Trump [4]. - Starbucks shares rose by 4.3% as the company explores partnerships with external investors for minority stakes in its China operations [6]. - Nucor's stock fell by 6.5% due to ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico regarding the potential removal of 50% tariffs on steel imports from Mexico [6]. Commodity Market Insights - International oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil rising by 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East [7]. - Gold prices also increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.95% to $3,375.60 per ounce, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating a positive outlook in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs on Venezuela [1]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, and U.S. tariffs on Venezuelan oil are providing short-term support for oil prices. WTI crude futures rose by 0.99% and Brent crude futures increased by 1.76% during the specified period [6]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production in May, despite new compensatory production cuts from Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. The overall production trend is expected to increase [6]. - The Chinese industrial profit data shows a slight decline of 0.3% for January-February, but the decrease is narrowing, which may improve market expectations for crude oil demand in China [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights that the geopolitical risks in the Middle East and U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan oil are likely to support oil prices in the short term. However, a long-term view suggests that oil prices may weaken as the fundamental outlook becomes more relaxed [7]. - The report suggests focusing on major domestic oil companies, referred to as the "Big Three" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC), due to their relatively strong earnings resilience [7]. Fluorochemicals - Demand is driven by national subsidies, and supply is determined by sales, leading to a continued rise in refrigerant prices. The new subsidy policy for household appliances is expected to boost air conditioning consumption [6][7]. - The report indicates that the production of second-generation refrigerants will continue to decrease, while the increase in production quotas for third-generation refrigerants will be limited, supporting a favorable supply-demand balance [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals. The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the cyclical upturn and domestic substitution [7].