Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 2.56% increase in the week from October 27 to October 31, ranking it among the top performers in all primary industries. The energy metals sector rose by 6.31%, while the industrial metals sector increased by 1.91% [14][1] - The easing of geopolitical trade tensions between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate cuts have led to a generally optimistic sentiment for industrial metal prices, although further upward movement will depend on supply-demand dynamics [1][26] - Precious metals have seen a price correction due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the easing of trade tensions, but the overall macroeconomic framework remains favorable for long positions in precious metals [4][49] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, with the non-ferrous metals sector increasing by 2.56%, outperforming the index by 2.45 percentage points [14] - The report highlights that all sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw gains, with energy metals leading the way [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper closed at $10,892 per ton, down 0.51% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥87,010 per ton, down 0.81%. Supply disruptions and a new LME policy to limit large positions are expected to support copper prices in the long term [30][2] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $2,888 per ton, up 1.10%, with SHFE aluminum at ¥21,300 per ton, up 0.35%. The EU's ban on Russian LNG is contributing to price increases [35][3] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,050 per ton, up 1.01%. Zinc inventories have decreased, supporting price stability [39][3] - **Tin**: Tin prices rose due to ongoing supply tightness, with LME tin at $36,180 per ton, up 1.49% [45][3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,077.20 per ounce, down 1.20%, while SHFE gold was at ¥921.92 per gram, down 1.72%. The easing of geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand, leading to price corrections [48][4] - The report anticipates a significant probability of further rate cuts in December, maintaining a favorable outlook for precious metals in the medium term [49][4]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has officially matched the longest record in history, lasting 35 days since October 1, with no resolution in sight [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the shutdown could reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by 2% to 3% [1] - The absence of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls (NFP) and GDP, has left the market in a "blind flying" state, increasing reliance on private sector indicators like the ISM manufacturing PMI [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions - The market is still digesting the Federal Reserve's recent policy shift, which has led to a tightening of global liquidity beyond expectations [3] - Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks following a 25 basis point rate cut have downplayed expectations for another cut in December, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar index (DXY) and rising short-term U.S. Treasury yields [3][4] - The tightening liquidity has put pressure on risk assets, including stocks, emerging market currencies, and cryptocurrencies [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to the Fed's "hawkish rate cut" and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $110,000 [8] - A negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index has re-emerged, where each dollar strength puts pressure on major digital assets [9] - Altcoins have experienced deeper declines, with Ethereum (ETH) struggling to maintain the $3,800 level, and smaller tokens lagging behind [10] Group 4: Future Market Focus - The market remains focused on whether the U.S. government shutdown can be resolved soon, with new budget deadlines approaching that may force negotiations [6] - Reports indicate that moderate Republicans and Democrats are informally discussing potential compromises to restart the government [6] - Until clear progress is made, uncertainty will remain high, potentially triggering risk-averse sentiment in the market [7]

1) 市场整体活跃度明显抬升：年初至今日均成交额达2579亿港元，较2024年1318亿港元接近翻倍； 智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，今年以来，港股持续活跃并领跑全球，高度结构化的轮动行情背后与流动性的活跃有直接关系。从资金角度 看，既有全球"去美元化"叙事下一部分分散化投资需求下的资金流入，也有国内缺乏投资机会下寻求更高回报南向资金的持续流入。南向资金上，主动公 募并非主力，尤其三季度后居民入市"接力"机构。机构"子弹"没有想的那么多，但个人的潜力与变数较大。 中金公司主要观点如下： 今年以来，港股持续活跃并领跑全球市场，同时也呈现高度结构化的轮动行情。这一表现得益于年初DeepSeek引领的资产重估叙事，以及后续新消费、 创新药等结构性机会的持续涌现，同时也与流动性的活跃有直接关系。从资金角度看，既有全球"去美元化"叙事下一部分分散化投资需求下的资金流入， 也有国内缺乏投资机会下寻求更高回报下南向资金的持续流入，例如上半年的保险资金和下半年的存款活化和理财入市叙事。具体体现在， 2) 南向资金大幅加码，三季度后个人或取代保险：日均流入规模达64.2亿港元，是2024年全年日均34.7亿港元的近两 ...