Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber Optics has seen a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock of Changfei Fiber Optics (601869) and its subsidiary Changxin Bochuang (300548) has experienced a drop of over 4%, with a trading volume of 6.76 billion HKD [1] - The current stock price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% at the time of reporting [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Nomura's research indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by market expectations of increased demand for high-end products like G.654E fiber and hollow fiber due to AI data centers [1] - The firm believes that the recent tender results from China Mobile show a decline in Changfei's market share and average selling price, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating Changes - Nomura has downgraded its rating on Changfei from "Buy" to "Neutral," suggesting that the current stock price reflects the positive factors associated with AI business expansion [1] - The target price has been significantly adjusted from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD, indicating a more cautious outlook despite the upward revision [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable (06869) has seen a decline of over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability due to recent bidding results from China Mobile [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The stock has dropped over 4%, with a trading volume of 676 million HKD [1] - The current price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Nomura's report indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by expectations of AI data centers adopting high-end products like G.654E and hollow fiber [1] - The report highlights a decline in market share and average selling prices for Changfei, as indicated by recent fiber optic bidding results from China Mobile, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] - Nomura has downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," while significantly raising the target price from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on improving its main business and expanding the application of new optical fiber technologies, driven by the growing demand from data centers and AI construction [4][6]. - Despite facing pressure in the telecom market, the company is seizing structural opportunities by expanding into new applications such as metropolitan area networks and direct connections for computing clusters [5]. - The company is making forward-looking investments in hollow-core optical fibers, which have the potential to become a core technology for next-generation optical networks [6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.71% to 296 million yuan [4]. - The company’s non-deductible net profit increased by 14.75% to 138 million yuan [4]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 14.193 billion yuan in 2025 to 18.008 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.23 yuan to 2.04 yuan [7][11]. Market Dynamics - The demand for standard single-mode optical fibers in the telecom market is declining, leading to a decrease in average prices [5]. - The company won a significant share of a centralized procurement by China Mobile for G.654.E optical cables, amounting to 3.1386 million core kilometers, which is expected to boost business growth [5]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for optical fiber products driven by the expansion of data centers and advancements in AI technology [4][9]. - The hollow-core optical fiber technology is anticipated to be a game-changer, with the company making substantial progress in its research and commercialization [6].

智通财经APP获悉，长飞光纤光缆(06869)跌近5%，昨日尾盘曾拉升超10%，截至发稿，跌4.86%，报 49.76港元，成交额1.73亿港元。 另值得注意的是，9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.通过大宗交易出售长飞光纤光缆3759.53万股H股，占总 股本5%，减持后H股数量为零。截至今年3月底，DrakaComteqB.V.和中国华信邮电科技有限公司并列长 飞光纤第一大股东，持股比例都是23.73%。4月17日至9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.累计减持长飞光纤H 股近1.8亿股，占公司总股本的23.73%。 消息面上，野村发布研报称，公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主 要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品的需求强劲。该行表示， 电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动6月的光纤招标表明，市占率 下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该行将2025财年收入 及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上 ...

该行表示，电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动(00941)6月的光纤 招标表明，市占率下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该 行将2025财年收入及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上调5-11%及1- 24%，以反映2026年AI基础设施需求增强。 智通财经APP获悉，野村发布研报称，将长飞光纤光缆(06869)目标价从18.6港元上调180%至52港元， 反映有9.9%的上涨空间，评级由"买入"下调至"中性"。公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期 恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品 的需求强劲。 ...

消息面上，华泰证券表示，公司是全球领先的光纤预制棒、光纤、光缆及综合解决方案供应商，自2016 年以来集团市场份额稳居全球第一。研报指出，市场认为公司成长天花板有限，而该行认为AI算力基 础设施建设有望驱动公司迎来新一轮成长：1)在光传输领域，数据中心多模光纤、骨干网G.654.E光纤 产品快速增长，空芯光纤产业应用前景广阔，公司作为行业龙头正在快速推进运营商长距传输网和数通 领域应用，具备先发优势；2)多元化打开成长空间，子公司长芯博创（300548）、长芯盛在MPO、 AOC、高速铜缆领域具备较强竞争优势，有望加速导入海外客户实现业务放量。 值得注意的是，9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.通过大宗交易出售长飞光纤光缆3759.53万股H股，占总股 本5%，减持后H股数量为零。截至今年3月底，DrakaComteqB.V.和中国华信邮电科技有限公司并列长飞 光纤第一大股东，持股比例都是23.73%。4月17日至9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.累计减持长飞光纤H股 近1.8亿股，占公司总股本的23.73%。 长飞光纤（601869）光缆(06869)尾盘涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the communication industry [10] Core Insights - The communication equipment sector experienced a revenue growth of 12.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery since Q4 2023, with AI computing power driving this growth [2] - The overall net profit for communication equipment in Q2 2025 increased by 19.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong profitability amid the transition to new growth drivers [2] - The report emphasizes the sustained high growth potential in the optical communication sub-sector, driven by global AI demand [3] Financial Summary and Outlook - The optical device sub-sector saw a remarkable revenue increase of 72.81% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with net profit growth of 133.5%, indicating a robust demand for optical modules fueled by AI [3] - The Internet of Things (IoT) sector continues to show good revenue growth, validating the ongoing recovery trend, with companies benefiting from the long-term trend of interconnected devices [3] - The optical fiber and cable sub-sector reported a revenue growth of 16.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, although net profit declined by 9.6% [3] - The IDC & CDN sector faced a revenue decline of 9.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking four consecutive quarters of revenue decline [4] - The main equipment sector showed a revenue turnaround with a growth of 9.1% and 16.5% in Q1 and Q2 2025 respectively, driven by strong demand for computing power [4] - The satellite industry reported a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, but is expected to enter a growth phase as satellite internet networks develop [4] - The Beidou and military communication sector experienced a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, but long-term growth is anticipated with new equipment entering service [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in "AI + Overseas Expansion + Satellite" core targets, particularly in optical modules and devices, as well as domestic computing power lines [6] - Key recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongtian Technology, among others, with a focus on AI-related sectors [7][14]

消息面上，9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.通过大宗交易出售长飞光纤光缆3759.53万股H股，占总股本 5%，减持后H股数量为零。值得注意的是，截至今年3月底，DrakaComteqB.V.和中国华信邮电科技有限 公司并列长飞光纤第一大股东，持股比例都是23.73%。4月17日至9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.累计减持 长飞光纤H股近1.8亿股，占公司总股本的23.73%。 长飞光纤（601869）光缆(06869)再跌超7%，较月内高点跌近三成。截至发稿，跌6.47%，报47港元， 成交额13.03亿港元。 摩根士丹利本月中旬曾发布研报称，光模块行业的基本面利好已被广泛知晓并充分反映在股价中，建议 投资者在市场情绪高涨时适度获利了结。大摩认为，尽管AI基础设施需求增长前景依然积极，但当前 市场热情水平难以持续。报告指出，长飞光纤高端光纤业务有亮点，但业绩反转仍需验证。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI market is driving explosive growth in the optical communication industry in Wuhan, with multiple companies reaching significant market capitalizations [2][4]. - Wuhan's four AI concept stocks, including Huagong Technology, Changfei Fiber, Guangxun Technology, and Gaode Infrared, are collectively striving to join the "billion-dollar club" [1][2]. - Huagong Technology's market value surged from 687 billion to over 1 trillion in just one month, indicating a rapid upward trend [2][4]. Group 2 - Changfei Fiber, as the first "A+H" listed company in China's fiber optic cable industry, has launched the "AI-2030" strategy to pave the way for the AI era [2]. - Guangxun Technology reached a peak market value of 609 billion, focusing on optical module production, while its parent company, China Information Communication Technology Group, has multiple subsidiaries contributing to the AI sector [2][3]. - The total market capitalization of 47 A-share listed companies in the Wuhan Optical Valley reached 703.23 billion, reflecting an 85.4% year-on-year growth [3][4]. Group 3 - The rise of AI enterprises in Wuhan signifies the region's industrial strength and suggests that more companies will soon achieve billion-dollar valuations [4][5]. - The current market capitalization of the technology sector in A-shares exceeds 25% of the total market, significantly higher than that of banking, non-bank financials, and real estate [4]. - The city of Wuhan is entering a new phase of competition among billion-dollar market cap companies, with plans to enhance its technology financial center by 2027 [5].

Summary of Hengtong Optic-Electric Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengtong Optic-Electric - **Focus Areas**: Data centers, high-speed interconnects, national trunk networks, and energy networks Key Points Industry and Market Trends - **Global Digitalization**: Accelerating digitalization is driving rapid growth in fiber optic demand, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% from 2023 to 2027, leading to over 650 million kilometers of new installations by 2027 [3][13] - **AI Computing Growth**: The global AI computing scale is expected to grow by over 50% in the next five years, significantly increasing the demand for low-loss fibers such as multimode and hollow-core fibers [3][9] - **Market Size Projections**: The global market for communication fibers is anticipated to reach $11.18 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.3% [3][13] Company Performance - **Financial Results**: For the first half of 2025, Hengtong Optic-Electric reported revenues of 32.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.42%, and a net profit of 1.903 billion yuan, up 0.24% [2][7] - **Q2 Performance**: In Q2 2025, revenues reached 18.78 billion yuan, a 26.64% year-on-year increase and a 41.55% quarter-on-quarter increase; however, net profit decreased by 3.63% year-on-year but increased by 89.74% quarter-on-quarter [2][8] Technological Advancements - **Product Development**: Hengtong is advancing in high-end product development, focusing on ultra-low-loss fiber and hollow-core fiber technologies, with new production platforms established for these products [3][4] - **New Product Lines**: The company has developed OM4 and OM5 multimode fibers and high-density MPO cables specifically for data center applications [3][18] Energy Network Achievements - **Order Book**: As of mid-2025, Hengtong has secured approximately 20 billion yuan in orders within the energy interconnection sector, covering a full industry chain from product development to engineering operations [2][5] - **Comprehensive Solutions**: The company offers complete solutions for offshore wind power and marine oil and gas systems, including subsea cable manufacturing and installation [5] Global Expansion Efforts - **International Presence**: Hengtong has expanded its global footprint through acquisitions, including a 51% stake in Huawei Marine in 2020 and the acquisition of PT BOX in 2023, covering over 150 countries with 12 overseas production bases and more than 40 technical service companies [2][6][20] Future Plans - **AI Fiber Material Center**: The company is set to complete an AI advanced fiber material R&D center by February 2026, focusing on ultra-low-loss hollow fibers and high-performance multimode fibers [3][19] - **New Projects**: Plans include the construction of a 1,100-kilometer PC transoceanic extension segment, enhancing global coverage and positioning the company as a leading provider of information and energy interconnection solutions [3][25] Additional Insights - **Hollow-Core Fiber Applications**: Hollow-core fibers are expected to see increased use in high-frequency trading, distributed computing centers, and underwater interconnects, with the communication fiber market projected to reach $1.05 billion by 2030 [12] - **Market Dynamics**: Major tech companies are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, with the U.S. tech giants expected to spend over $350 billion this year, further driving demand for data center solutions [9][10] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Hengtong Optic-Electric's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, financial performance, technological advancements, and future growth plans.