证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 中天科技（600522.SH） 业绩符合预期，新能源与海洋业务双轮驱动 TMT 及中小盘/通信 事件：公司 8 月 25 日晚发布《2025 年半年度报告》，公司实现营业收入 236.00 亿元，同比增长 10.19%；归属上市公司股东的净利润 15.68 亿元，同比增长 7.38%；归属上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 14.68 亿元，同比增长 10.58%。 ❑ 投资建议：公司是国内光纤通信和海缆领域龙头企业，在光通信、新能源、 电力、海缆等细分领域具有领先地位。在能源领域，公司实现从"产品供应商" 向"系统集成服务商"转型，成为全球领先的能源网络系统解决方案服务商，海 缆有望成为未来几年新增长驱动力。我们预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润 分别为 34.26 亿元/39.59 亿元/44.82 亿元，对应增速分别为 21%/16%/13%， 对应 PE 分别为 15.8X/13.7X/12.1X，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 ❑ 风险提示：光纤光缆招标不及预期、海洋业务竞争加剧、费用成本开支加大。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年 ...

Group 1: Metal New Materials - The price of rhodium has increased for two consecutive months, while the price of lithium concentrate has also risen, reaching approximately 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions from the suspension of lithium mines are expected to elevate lithium prices in the short term [4] - The price of rhenium powder has risen, indicating a recovery in demand for military new materials [4] - The price of zirconium oxychloride has decreased in the nuclear power new materials sector, while silicon carbide prices have dropped in the consumer electronics new materials category [4] Group 2: Longqing Co., Ltd. (002391.SZ) - Longqing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.083 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 42 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Oriental Cable (603606.SH) - Oriental Cable's revenue for H1 2025 was 4.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.57% to 473 million yuan due to delays in offshore wind construction [5] Group 4: Lian Microelectronics (605358.SH) - Lian Microelectronics expects to achieve a revenue of 1.666 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.19%. However, the company anticipates a net loss of 121 million yuan, which is an increase in losses compared to the previous year [6] Group 5: Stone Technology (688169.SH) - Stone Technology reported total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40% to 700 million yuan [7] Group 6: Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SH) - Ecovacs Robotics achieved a revenue of 8.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 61% to 1 billion yuan [8] Group 7: Tianshili (600535.SH) - Tianshili reported revenue of 4.288 billion yuan for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.91%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.97% to 775 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Viewpoints - The overseas computing power industry chain remains highly prosperous and has not been impacted by DeepSeek and trade frictions, with stronger fundamental resonance in the related industry chain. The AI industry is viewed as the main investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [4][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" core investment opportunities, highlighting areas such as optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power lines. The report also notes the recovery of the offshore wind industry and the promising developments in the satellite internet sector [5][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include: - Optical modules & optical devices: Focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [6]. - Switch server PCB: Key recommendations include Huadian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [6]. - Low valuation, high dividend, and cloud computing IDC resource reassessment: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [6]. - AIDC & cooling: Key recommendations include Yingweike, Runze Technology, and Guanghuan New Network [6]. - AIGC applications / edge computing: Key recommendations include Yiyuan Communication, Guanghetong, and Meige Intelligent [6]. 2. Offshore Wind and Submarine Cables & Intelligent Driving - Offshore wind and submarine cables: Key recommendations include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [7]. - Recovery of overseas expansion & concentration on leading companies: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation, Weisheng Information, and Tuobang Co. [7]. - Intelligent driving: Suggested focus on modules & terminals, sensors, connectors, and structural components [7]. 3. Satellite Internet & Low Altitude Economy - Accelerated development of low-orbit satellites and low-altitude economy: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [8]. - Suggested focus on companies like Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology, and Shenglu Communication [8]. 4. Market Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 7.02% during the week of July 14-18, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.93 percentage points. The communication equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.80% [29][31].

Core Insights - Dandong City has achieved a 34.7% year-on-year increase in domestic investment, completing 68.3% of its annual target in the first half of the year [1] - The city has implemented innovative and pragmatic measures in its investment attraction strategies, focusing on high-quality economic development [1] Investment Attraction Strategies - Dandong City has adopted a combination of strategies including "top leader investment promotion," "industrial chain investment," "platform-based investment," and "business association investment" to enhance its investment attraction efforts [1] - The city is targeting specific regions and enterprises, aiming for high standards and comprehensive engagement to improve the structure and quality of investment projects [1] Project Outcomes - In the first half of the year, Dandong City introduced 610 domestic investment projects, with 79 projects exceeding 100 million yuan, and a 4.3% year-on-year increase in the proportion of industrial projects [2] - A total of 329 projects with investments over 20 million yuan were signed, representing a 147.4% year-on-year increase, with a total investment amount of 40.6 billion yuan [2] - The city has achieved an 83% project implementation rate, with 272 projects already commenced [2] Collaborative Efforts - Dandong City leaders have actively engaged in investment negotiations across key economic regions such as Sichuan-Chongqing, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, fostering partnerships and cooperation [2] - The city has leveraged the role of "leading enterprises" and explored new models such as "business association bridging" to enhance government-enterprise collaboration [2]

Core Insights - Dandong City has achieved a 34.7% year-on-year increase in domestic investment in the first half of the year, completing 68.3% of its annual target [2][3] - The city has implemented innovative and pragmatic measures in its investment attraction strategies, focusing on high-quality economic development [2][3] Investment Attraction Strategies - Dandong City has adopted a series of combined strategies for investment attraction, including "leader-led investment, industrial chain investment, platform-based investment, and business association investment" [2][3] - The city is targeting specific regions and enterprises, enhancing the structure and quality of investment projects [2][3] Project Data and Performance - In the first half of the year, Dandong introduced 610 domestic investment projects, with 79 projects exceeding 100 million yuan, and industrial projects seeing a 4.3% year-on-year increase [3] - A total of 329 projects with investments over 20 million yuan were newly signed, representing a 147.4% year-on-year growth, with a total investment amount of 40.6 billion yuan [3] - The project implementation rate stands at 83%, with 272 projects already commenced [3]

Summary of Zhongtian Technology Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Zhongtian Technology, a company involved in the manufacturing of submarine cables and communication networks, focusing on the energy interconnection and offshore wind power sectors. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Order Acquisition and Revenue Expectations** Zhongtian Technology has secured approximately 2 billion yuan in 500 kV submarine cable orders in the first half of the year, benefiting from demand in Shantou and Wenzhou. The proportion of 500 kV orders is expected to increase from 20% to 30%-50% [2][5] 2. **International Market Participation** The company is actively participating in energy interconnection projects in Europe and Southeast Asia, with expectations for breakthroughs in international high-voltage projects within the next one to two years [2][5] 3. **Domestic Market Performance** In Jiangsu, the scale of submarine cable orders is about 2 billion yuan, with revenue recognition expected mainly in Q2 and Q3. The company anticipates three new project tenders in the second half of the year, exceeding previous expectations [2][8] 4. **Profit Margins** The gross margin for 500 kV products is higher than that of 220 kV and 66 kV products. The overall gross margin is expected to remain stable this year, with improvements due to an increased proportion of high-margin products [2][6] 5. **Focus on Overseas Markets** Key overseas markets include Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, with significant potential in offshore wind power and oil and gas projects. The company expects a notable increase in overseas orders in the coming periods [2][7] 6. **Communication Network Sector** Zhongtian Technology won the top share in the China Mobile 25~206 month plan. Although there has not been a clear turning point in demand, the long-term growth trend for data transmission remains solid due to increasing internet applications and data centers [2][9] 7. **Impact of Internet Companies on Data Centers** Some internet companies are building their own data centers, affecting operators' capital expenditures. However, long-term demand for data transmission is expected to recover as application needs increase [2][10] 8. **International Strategy and Revenue Goals** Since 2017, Zhongtian Technology has aimed for 35%-40% of its revenue to come from international markets, with 25% of its communication segment revenue currently derived from overseas [2][11] 9. **Manufacturing Industry Measures** The company benefits from measures in the manufacturing sector aimed at maintaining reasonable profit margins and quality, which supports sustainable market development [2][12] 10. **Corporate Governance Changes** The company has undergone a board restructuring, with a new chairman focusing on product development and market expansion, while maintaining direct management of various segments [2][13] 11. **Investment Income Outlook** Last year's impairments were mainly in the new energy materials sector, but this year's investment income is not expected to significantly impact financial performance [2][14] 12. **Order Backlog and Future Projections** As of April 2025, Zhongtian Technology has an order backlog of approximately 13 billion yuan in the marine sector, with a production capacity target of 9-10 billion yuan for submarine cables [2][14] 13. **Domestic and International Market Trends** By 2025, the domestic offshore wind industry is expected to reach a grid-connected capacity of 60 GW, with significant project approvals anticipated in various provinces [2][15] 14. **Fiber Optic Demand** Demand for multimode fibers has increased since 2024, with the company adjusting its production capacity accordingly. Collaborations on hollow fiber technology are ongoing, focusing on industrial scale and stability [2][16]

Group 1 - The market shows significant divergence regarding the telecommunications industry, with optimism for the computing power sector until 2026, but concerns over AI applications and capital expenditure slowing down [1] - The report suggests that while short-term divergences may persist, there is no evidence to support that concerns will materialize, indicating a need for selective investment in the computing power sector [1] - Telecommunications operators are considered stable and high-quality dividend assets, with a recommendation to focus on H-shares over A-shares due to better dividend yields and valuations [1] Group 2 - The computing power infrastructure sector remains strong, with a positive long-term outlook despite the absence of blockbuster applications, suggesting a focus on high-quality North American companies [2] - Specific companies in the optical module and CPO segments are recommended for investment, including names like NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication [2] - Attention is drawn to the military communication, controller, IoT, and submarine cable sectors, which are expected to see marginal changes and growth opportunities due to evolving international dynamics and military needs [3] Group 3 - The military demand is expected to remain rigid as China aims to achieve its military goals by 2027, with potential recovery in military-related industries [3] - Companies involved in smart controllers and IoT modules are actively entering new markets, which may lead to new growth opportunities [3] - The offshore wind power sector is anticipated to recover, with improvements in deep-sea technology providing new development opportunities for submarine cables and marine communication systems [3]

Summary of Zhongtian Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongtian Technology's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be approximately 40 billion yuan, with contributions from the communication, marine, and power sectors being 8 billion, 3.6 billion, and 1 billion respectively [2][5][19] - The company generates 80% of its revenue from domestic markets, with less than 20% from international markets [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhongtian Technology achieved operating revenue of 48 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.8 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.545 billion yuan [4] - The power sector's revenue is 19.8 billion yuan, while the communication sector's revenue is 22 billion yuan [4] - The marine cable segment has a gross margin of approximately 40%, benefiting from the delivery of 337 kV products [2][5] - The marine engineering segment has a negative gross margin of 8%, but profitability is expected to improve in 2025 as construction volume increases [2][5][17] Sector Insights Marine Energy - The marine energy sector has an order backlog of 31.2 billion yuan, with 13.4 billion yuan from marine projects, 14 billion yuan from power projects, and nearly 4 billion yuan from new energy projects [7] - The Jiangsu Yancheng Guoxin project is in a dense delivery phase, with most revenue expected to be recognized in Q2 and Q3 [8] Power Sector - The power sector is expected to benefit from the domestic ultra-high voltage construction and European energy interconnection projects, with a favorable growth outlook for the next 5 to 10 years [19] - The company has secured two ultra-high voltage projects totaling nearly 2 billion yuan, which will enhance overall gross margins [16][19] Communication Sector - The communication sector is stable, with a gross margin of around 25% [2][5] - The traditional optical fiber business accounts for 40%-50% of revenue, while emerging products like 5G antennas and optical modules account for 20% and are growing rapidly [12] International Market Opportunities - The acceleration of offshore wind power construction in Europe presents opportunities for high-voltage cables in markets like Turkey, which may enhance overseas revenue [6][14] - The company aims to increase its overseas marine cable revenue share to 20%-30% in the future [14] Project Delivery and Order Status - As of April 23, 2025, domestic orders are estimated at 6-7 billion yuan, with 70% expected to be delivered in 2025 [15] - The company has a target of adding 3-4 billion yuan in new orders this year, with a focus on matching production capacity [14] Emerging Trends and Future Outlook - The company is transitioning production capacity towards specialty optical fibers, including multi-mode and hollow fibers [23] - The overall business is expected to achieve stable growth, with a focus on high-quality development in the coming years [25][26] Additional Insights - The marine cable business is influenced by geopolitical factors, with the company actively participating in domestic demand growth [22] - The company is not focusing on nuclear fusion or superconducting technologies, which are not core areas of interest [10] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, sector insights, international opportunities, project delivery status, and future outlook.

Key Insights - The report highlights the overall upward trend in various industries, including oil and petrochemicals, building materials, electronics, textiles, automotive, non-bank financials, and environmental protection, while sectors like electric equipment, machinery, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, banking, real estate, public utilities, and retail are experiencing a downward trend [2][3][5] Industry Overview - The semiconductor photomask market is dominated by US and Japanese companies, with a strong demand for domestic alternatives due to low domestic production rates [3] - The global photomask market reached USD 5.2 billion by 2022, showing consistent growth from 2012 to 2020 [3] - The CDMO sector is projected to generate revenue of CNY 83.191 billion in 2024, a decrease of 2.92% year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2025 shows a recovery with a revenue increase of 11.35% year-on-year [5] - The CRO sector is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to high base effects, but a significant recovery is anticipated in Q1 2025, with a net profit increase of 104.57% year-on-year [5] Company Performance - The report indicates that the company achieved a revenue of CNY 67.46 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.24%, with a net profit of CNY 9.40 billion, up 2.86% year-on-year [11] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 16.66 billion, a slight increase of 1.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 2.57 billion, which is a 10.94% increase year-on-year [11] - The company has successfully launched its 500,000th five-in-one electric drive shell, enhancing its production capacity for products over 3000T [11] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 12.63 billion, 15.22 billion, and 17.99 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0, 10.8, and 9.1 [11] Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in the demand for AI and robotics, with companies in these sectors expected to see a recovery in their stock prices following recent adjustments [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic companies enhancing their R&D capabilities through acquisitions and talent acquisition to catch up with foreign competitors in the photomask industry [3] - The report also highlights the increasing importance of the AI industry, with Meta's Q1 2025 revenue reaching USD 42.3 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, and a significant rise in AI-related advertising effectiveness [20]

Group 1: Cloud Industry Insights - The four major North American cloud providers reported a total capital expenditure (capex) of $77.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62% [1] - Companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft maintained their optimistic capex guidance for 2025, while Meta raised its full-year capex guidance from $60 billion-$65 billion to $64 billion-$72 billion, alleviating market concerns [1] - The report suggests focusing on stocks with strong performance growth and low valuations for Q1 2024 and 2025, quality dividend assets in telecom operators, and sectors like military communication and submarine cables that may see performance and valuation recovery [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Outlook - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery, with steady growth in holiday consumption across most provinces and cities, driven by trade-in programs and emotional value consumption [2] - Increased travel willingness and diversified cultural tourism consumption are noted, alongside a boost in inbound tourism due to tax refund policies [2] - The report remains optimistic about the gradual improvement of the consumer sector's fundamentals and the revaluation of leading companies by 2025, supported by consumption stimulus policies [2] Group 3: Aviation Industry Forecast - The aviation industry is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, with increased international flight schedules and domestic demand being stimulated by the "924" policy [3] - The demand for civil aviation travel is anticipated to be further released in 2025, supported by an improved supply-demand balance and favorable oil and exchange rates [3] - The market is expected to open up further for ticket pricing, leading to enhanced profitability for airlines [3]