宏观量化指数经济周报 20251228：12 月出口增速预计将小幅回落 中下旬逆季节性回升的基建实物工作量是一大亮点 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-30 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] #海外政治：以史为鉴：鲍威尔成为美联储"太上皇"的尾部风险有多大？ 核心观点：在市场担心特朗普钦定的新任美联储主席可能会令美联储货 币决策丧失独立性时，一个被市场低估的风险是鲍威尔捍卫美联储独立 性的决心。参考历史，鲍威尔可能打破惯例、效仿 1940s 的美联储主席埃 克尔斯，虽辞去主席职务但依旧担任理事，成为美联储事实意义上的"太 上皇"。市场将在短期内迅速形成美元信用修复的交易叙事，并给美元指 数&美股&短端美债利率带来上行冲击、黄金&大宗商品&长端美债利率 带来下行冲击。风险提示：特朗普最终提名的候选人严重偏离市场预期； 特朗普通过政治施压干预美联储主席任命流程；最高法院对特朗普罢免 库克案判决结果超预期。 2025 年 12 月 30 日 晨会编辑 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 请务必 ...

再签大单！ 2025年12月，市值高达700亿的中天科技，成功中标"中电建万宁漂浮式海上风电试验项目一期10万千瓦 样机工程"。 欣喜之余，翻看财报才发现公司实力远不止此，这份最新大单并非孤立的，在此之前，中天科技就已经 签单签到手软了。 数据显示，2022年至今，中天科技在国内海缆市场的中标金额稳居行业第三，市占率约24%，已成长为 海上风电基础设施领域的核心供应商。 截至2025年10月24日，中天科技在能源网络领域的在手订单高达318亿元，其中海洋相关订单高达131亿 元。 那么，为何中天科技能在此领域屡获青睐，并坚定选择向深海进军呢？ 一方面，全球海缆市场正值发展黄金期。 国内，海风重燃。 经历短暂蛰伏，我国海上风电自2023年底再度启航。上海、福建、山东等多省市相继发布海上风电竞配 与中长期规划，此前暂停的项目也陆续重启。 海外市场同样风起云涌。 欧洲海上风电建设已进入高峰期，海缆产能持续紧张。根据预测，到2028年欧洲海风新增装机将突破 10GW，到2030年新增装机将突破20GW，是全球最大的海风市场。 然而，欧洲本土海缆产能却不足以"填饱"需求。目前欧洲海缆年产能约5000公里，而到2030年 ...

Summary of Zhongtian Technology's Q3 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongtian Technology - **Date of Call**: Q3 2025 Key Financial Performance - **Net Profit**: Q3 net profit decreased by 9% year-on-year to 770 million RMB, while cumulative net profit for the first three quarters increased by approximately 1% to 2.338 billion RMB [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Positive operating cash flow of over 400 million RMB for the first three quarters, with a single-quarter cash flow of 2.2 billion RMB in Q3 [2][3] - **Revenue**: Q3 revenue reached 14.4 billion RMB, an 11% year-on-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first three quarters at 38 billion RMB, up about 10% [3] Revenue Contribution by Segment - **Power Segment**: Contributed nearly 40% of profits [2][4] - **Marine Segment**: Accounted for approximately 35% of profits [2][4] - **Communication Segment**: Contributed over 20% of profits [2][4] - **Gross Margin by Product**: - 35 kV and below: ~25% - 220 kV: 35%-40% - 330 kV: >40% - 500 kV: ~50% [4][5] Inventory and Project Delivery - **Inventory Increase**: Inventory rose due to incomplete project deliveries and pre-holiday stocking, expected to be delivered in Q4 [2][7] - **Project Delivery Timeline**: Most of the 32 projects will be completed this year, with significant projects like San Mountain Island and Red Bay expected to deliver in Q1 2026 [2][11] Order Backlog and Future Expectations - **Marine Energy Orders**: As of late October, total marine energy orders amounted to approximately 13 billion RMB, with over 10 billion RMB in submarine cable orders [2][9] - **High Voltage Orders**: 500 kV orders are about 3 billion RMB, while 220 kV and 330 kV orders total around 4.4 billion RMB, making up over 40% of total orders [2][10] - **International Market Outlook**: Major international projects (De Electric and Woxu) are expected to enter a dense delivery phase next year, with a total scale of about 3 billion RMB [2][15] Market Trends and Future Projections - **Fiber Optic Demand**: Driven by AI data centers, demand for ordinary fiber optic cables has increased, with prices rising nearly 10% quarter-on-quarter [2][20] - **Multi-mode Fiber**: Supply is tight, and prices are increasing, with significant growth in special fiber applications in the European market [2][21][22] - **New Energy Orders**: Q3 new energy orders reached 2.5 billion RMB, primarily in large storage systems, with margins around 11%-12% [2][19] Other Notable Points - **Fair Value Loss**: A fair value loss of 200 million RMB was recorded due to the disposal of financial assets, including shares in Jiangsu Bank, but had a minimal impact on overall profit [2][8] - **Financial Expenses**: Increased financial expenses were attributed to fluctuations in USD asset exchange rates and lower returns from certain financial products [2][17]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The overseas computing power industry chain remains highly prosperous and has not been impacted by DeepSeek or trade frictions, with stronger fundamental resonance in the related industry chain. The AI industry is viewed as the annual investment mainline, with expectations for 2025 to be a year of competition in domestic AI infrastructure and application breakthroughs [2][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" as core investment opportunities, highlighting sectors such as optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power lines [2][18] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations for optical modules and optical devices include companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology. Suggested companies to watch include Guangxun Technology and Sors Technology [3][20] - For switch server PCBs, recommended companies are Hudian Co., Zhongxing Communication, and Unisplendour. Other companies to monitor include Shengke Communication and Ruijie Networks [3][20] - Low valuation and high dividend opportunities in cloud and computing IDC resources are identified in China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [3][20] - AIDC and cooling solutions highlight key recommendations for companies like Yingweike and Runze Technology, with additional companies suggested for attention [3][20] - AIGC applications and edge computing power focus on companies like Yiyuan Communication and Guanghe Communication, with other companies recommended for monitoring [3][20] 2. Offshore Wind and Submarine Cables & Intelligent Driving - Key recommendations for the offshore wind and submarine cable sector include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [4][21] - The report highlights the recovery of overseas expansion and concentration on leading companies such as Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information, with additional companies suggested for attention [4][21] - In intelligent driving, companies to watch include module and terminal manufacturers like Guanghe Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][21] 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The acceleration of national defense informatization and low-orbit satellite development is emphasized, with key recommendations for Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [5][22] - Suggested companies for attention in the satellite internet sector include Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology [5][22] 4. Market Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 12.55% during the week of August 25-29, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.84 percentage points [23][24] - Notable individual stock performances included Tianfu Communication and Changfei Optical Fiber, with significant declines in stocks like *ST Gaohong [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic fiber optic communication and submarine cable sectors, with a strong position in sub-segments such as optical communication, renewable energy, and power systems. The transition from a "product supplier" to a "system integration service provider" in the energy sector positions the company as a global leader in energy network system solutions. The submarine cable business is expected to be a new growth driver in the coming years [2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.43 billion yuan, 3.96 billion yuan, and 4.48 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing growth rates of 21%, 16%, and 13% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 15.8X, 13.7X, and 12.1X [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported total revenue of 45.065 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 48.055 billion yuan, 55.515 billion yuan, 61.525 billion yuan, and 67.081 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7%, 16%, 11%, and 9% [3][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.117 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.838 billion yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 3.426 billion yuan, 3.959 billion yuan, and 4.482 billion yuan in the following years, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, -9%, 21%, 16%, and 13% [3][14]. - The company’s current stock price is 15.85 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 54.1 billion yuan [4]. Business Growth Drivers - The renewable energy market is rapidly growing, contributing to steady performance improvements. In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.08%. The energy network sector is benefiting from national reforms in renewable energy pricing, leading to a surge in new installations [7]. - There is strong demand for submarine cables overseas, with the global market entering a new growth cycle. The company has secured significant projects and is expanding its global production capacity, including establishing a manufacturing base in Saudi Arabia [7]. - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in offshore engineering by developing advanced marine vessels and strengthening its capabilities across the entire industry chain, which includes construction, installation, and maintenance [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is a strong recommendation for Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) based on its increasing orders and the growth potential in the offshore wind power industry [2] - The company's profit in Q2 2025 experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline, primarily due to delays in the recognition of high-margin business revenue [2] - There is a significant increase in forward-looking financial indicators, indicating a high certainty of performance growth for the company [2] Group 2 - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the sustained growth of the global offshore wind power industry [2] - The report highlights the potential risks associated with the long construction cycle of offshore wind projects, which could impact cable delivery and company performance [2] - Uncertainties in trade policies of relevant countries may affect the company's export business, along with the risk of rapid increases in raw material prices [2]

Group 1: Metal New Materials - The price of rhodium has increased for two consecutive months, while the price of lithium concentrate has also risen, reaching approximately 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions from the suspension of lithium mines are expected to elevate lithium prices in the short term [4] - The price of rhenium powder has risen, indicating a recovery in demand for military new materials [4] - The price of zirconium oxychloride has decreased in the nuclear power new materials sector, while silicon carbide prices have dropped in the consumer electronics new materials category [4] Group 2: Longqing Co., Ltd. (002391.SZ) - Longqing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.083 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 42 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Oriental Cable (603606.SH) - Oriental Cable's revenue for H1 2025 was 4.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.95%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.57% to 473 million yuan due to delays in offshore wind construction [5] Group 4: Lian Microelectronics (605358.SH) - Lian Microelectronics expects to achieve a revenue of 1.666 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.19%. However, the company anticipates a net loss of 121 million yuan, which is an increase in losses compared to the previous year [6] Group 5: Stone Technology (688169.SH) - Stone Technology reported total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40% to 700 million yuan [7] Group 6: Ecovacs Robotics (603486.SH) - Ecovacs Robotics achieved a revenue of 8.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 61% to 1 billion yuan [8] Group 7: Tianshili (600535.SH) - Tianshili reported revenue of 4.288 billion yuan for H1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.91%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.97% to 775 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Viewpoints - The overseas computing power industry chain remains highly prosperous and has not been impacted by DeepSeek and trade frictions, with stronger fundamental resonance in the related industry chain. The AI industry is viewed as the main investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [4][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" core investment opportunities, highlighting areas such as optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power lines. The report also notes the recovery of the offshore wind industry and the promising developments in the satellite internet sector [5][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include: - Optical modules & optical devices: Focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [6]. - Switch server PCB: Key recommendations include Huadian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [6]. - Low valuation, high dividend, and cloud computing IDC resource reassessment: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [6]. - AIDC & cooling: Key recommendations include Yingweike, Runze Technology, and Guanghuan New Network [6]. - AIGC applications / edge computing: Key recommendations include Yiyuan Communication, Guanghetong, and Meige Intelligent [6]. 2. Offshore Wind and Submarine Cables & Intelligent Driving - Offshore wind and submarine cables: Key recommendations include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [7]. - Recovery of overseas expansion & concentration on leading companies: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation, Weisheng Information, and Tuobang Co. [7]. - Intelligent driving: Suggested focus on modules & terminals, sensors, connectors, and structural components [7]. 3. Satellite Internet & Low Altitude Economy - Accelerated development of low-orbit satellites and low-altitude economy: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [8]. - Suggested focus on companies like Chengchang Technology, Zhenlei Technology, and Shenglu Communication [8]. 4. Market Performance Review - The communication sector rose by 7.02% during the week of July 14-18, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.93 percentage points. The communication equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.80% [29][31].

Core Insights - Dandong City has achieved a 34.7% year-on-year increase in domestic investment, completing 68.3% of its annual target in the first half of the year [1] - The city has implemented innovative and pragmatic measures in its investment attraction strategies, focusing on high-quality economic development [1] Investment Attraction Strategies - Dandong City has adopted a combination of strategies including "top leader investment promotion," "industrial chain investment," "platform-based investment," and "business association investment" to enhance its investment attraction efforts [1] - The city is targeting specific regions and enterprises, aiming for high standards and comprehensive engagement to improve the structure and quality of investment projects [1] Project Outcomes - In the first half of the year, Dandong City introduced 610 domestic investment projects, with 79 projects exceeding 100 million yuan, and a 4.3% year-on-year increase in the proportion of industrial projects [2] - A total of 329 projects with investments over 20 million yuan were signed, representing a 147.4% year-on-year increase, with a total investment amount of 40.6 billion yuan [2] - The city has achieved an 83% project implementation rate, with 272 projects already commenced [2] Collaborative Efforts - Dandong City leaders have actively engaged in investment negotiations across key economic regions such as Sichuan-Chongqing, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, fostering partnerships and cooperation [2] - The city has leveraged the role of "leading enterprises" and explored new models such as "business association bridging" to enhance government-enterprise collaboration [2]

Core Insights - Dandong City has achieved a 34.7% year-on-year increase in domestic investment in the first half of the year, completing 68.3% of its annual target [2][3] - The city has implemented innovative and pragmatic measures in its investment attraction strategies, focusing on high-quality economic development [2][3] Investment Attraction Strategies - Dandong City has adopted a series of combined strategies for investment attraction, including "leader-led investment, industrial chain investment, platform-based investment, and business association investment" [2][3] - The city is targeting specific regions and enterprises, enhancing the structure and quality of investment projects [2][3] Project Data and Performance - In the first half of the year, Dandong introduced 610 domestic investment projects, with 79 projects exceeding 100 million yuan, and industrial projects seeing a 4.3% year-on-year increase [3] - A total of 329 projects with investments over 20 million yuan were newly signed, representing a 147.4% year-on-year growth, with a total investment amount of 40.6 billion yuan [3] - The project implementation rate stands at 83%, with 272 projects already commenced [3]