希腊《每日报》12月7日报道，根据希腊统计局发布的数据，得益于投资显著增长12.8%（环比增长 0.6%）。今年第三季度希腊经济增长率达到2%。希腊表现优于欧盟（1.6%）和欧元区（1.4%）。今年 前9个月，希腊经济平均增长率接近2%（第一季度2%，第二季度1.6%，第三季度2%）。 ...

报告建议称，作为政府的政策，有必要优先考虑"摆脱对出口和投资的过度依赖，转向消费主导的增长 模式"。为了扩大内需，需要采取财政刺激政策和社会保障制度，加快房地产部门改革。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京报道 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 高层楼房林立的北京郊外住宅区（2025年2月，北京市） IMF以政府的宏观经济政策和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。由于中国政府提出 了"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀率到2026年将上升至0.8%…… 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布了关于中国经济的年度报告，预测中国2025年增长率为 5.0%，2026年为4.5%。与10月发布的世界经济展望相比，分别上调0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点。 中国政府提出了2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率定为5%左右的目标。IMF以政府的宏观经济政策 和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。 由于中国政府提出了遏制过度降价、生产和投资的"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀 率到2026年将上升至0.8%。 ...

IMF上调2025年中国经济增速预期。 据新华社消息，国际货币基金组织（IMF）12月10日在京表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展 现出显著韧性。IMF预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调 0.2个百分点。 此外，亚洲开发银行12月10日发布《2025年亚洲发展展望》（12月版），预测亚太发展中经济体 2025年经济增速为5.1%，高于9月预测的4.8%。2026年的增长预期也上调0.1个百分点至4.6%。 报告显示，亚太发展中经济体通胀率预计将进一步回落至1.6%，低于9月份1.7%的预测值。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 值得一提的是，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议认为，今年是 中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎 难 ...

经济数据本来是手段，为的是帮助人们更好了解经济，制定宏观政策，结果在运行了近百年之后，居然变成了目的，一切都只为做高GDP。 今年9月，劳工部将美国24年的非农新增就业人数，下修了91万，平均每月7.6万，创下自2000年以来最高。 具体而言，原本统计的数字是176万，修正后变成了85万，2倍误差，这种统计质量还不如跳大绳瞎猜呢。一项调查显示，90%以上的经济学家，不再相信白 宫发布的经济数字。 顺带辟个谣。网上说什么，「宋朝GDP占全球80%」，「清朝占3/4」，全是假的。 包括GDP在内，当前人们使用的绝大部分经济统计指标，都是在二战后才发明的，即凯恩斯主义宏观经济学的内容。过去几千年里，统治者只在乎人口和财 政数字，还统计的一塌糊涂。 更重要的是，有什么样的经济方式，才有什么样的统计指标。 比如，中国两千年的大部分时间里，一直是自给自足的小农经济，何来GDP。因为GDP=商品数量*价格，而农民们产的粮食和小手工品，除了缴税，全自 己用了，根本不是商品。 换言之，只有在合作分工的市场经济下，才有GDP一说。 同理，看今天好多人傻傻比，韩国GDP是朝鲜的60倍，这绝对低估了后者实力。俊男靓女在韩国是GDP， ...

2025年10月23日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下称《建 议》）审议通过。《建议》的内容广泛，涵盖了经济和社会政策的诸多方面。我想重点关注两项关键的 宏观经济政策：新质生产力的发展和提高家庭消费的计划。在我看来，这两项举措都体现了政策制定者 致力于缓解中国人口结构变化带来的影响。 中国的人口结构变化主要体现在劳动年龄人口减少和退休人员数量增加。这些趋势已经开始显现，并将 在2026至2030年以及后续几年加速（图1）。劳动年龄人口数量的下降将减少劳动力的供给，对商品和 服务的生产造成影响。而退休人口增加将减少国民储蓄。这些正是"十五五"规划努力应对的问题。 中国政府在提出《建议》的同时，明确了到2035年人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平的中期发展 目标。其将这一目标定义为能够进入国际货币基金组织（IMF）认定的"发达国家"行列。目前，在IMF 的196个成员国中，只有41个被认为是发达国家（图2）。此外，在过去20年里，只有12个新兴市场国家 成为了发达国家，其中5个是像安道尔、马耳他和圣马力诺这样的小型经济体。 IMF的分类标准并不仅仅基于"经济"方面的表现，随着时 ...

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.1%, the STAR Market 50 decreased by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.4%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday included light industry manufacturing (+1.1%), basic chemicals (+1.0%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.9%), coal (+0.8%), and beauty care (+0.7%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.3%), media (-1.4%), retail (-1.2%), computer (-0.8%), and building materials (-0.7%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 1,709.6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.33 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector shows resilience, with opportunities in overseas markets due to improving external demand and enhanced overseas production efficiency. There is a focus on emerging growth areas [5] - Market concerns exist regarding the impact of domestic subsidy reductions on demand, but the report maintains a positive outlook on leading white goods companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are less sensitive to these changes [5] - Key drivers include alleviated industry competition, improving overseas demand, and stable domestic demand [5] Macro Research - The macroeconomic report emphasizes that under the framework of a unified national market, "anti-involution" focuses more on high-quality supply optimization rather than merely clearing excess capacity [6] - The report maintains a consistent viewpoint regarding the significant efforts to combat "involution" [6] Social Services Sector - The social services sector is witnessing a warming in pricing, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Travel demand remains robust, and hotel RevPAR is showing signs of recovery [8] - The report highlights a shift in local retail from store closures to inventory adjustments, which is expected to release profits [8] - Key drivers include CPI, same-store sales, and social retail performance [8] Medical Devices Sector - The medical devices sector is viewed positively due to investment opportunities arising from payment policy optimization and growth driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [9] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-value consumables to accelerate growth following the completion of centralized procurement [9] - Key drivers include ongoing innovation in medical devices and the international expansion of the sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact the economy, with the IMF predicting a lower economic growth rate of less than 1.9% for Q4 of this year [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. economy has shown resilience in recent years but is currently facing increasing pressure due to weak domestic demand and slowing job growth [1] - Factors such as reduced immigration, tariffs, and broader policy uncertainty are collectively suppressing economic activity in the U.S. [1] Government Shutdown Consequences - The government shutdown has resulted in data gaps, affecting the IMF's ability to assess U.S. economic performance [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that a six-week shutdown would lead to approximately $11 billion in economic losses for the U.S. [1]

Core Insights - The German Economic Expert Committee has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 1.0% made in spring [1] - The federal government had previously projected a growth rate of 1.3% for the upcoming year [1] - The report attributes the ongoing economic weakness to external pressures from global changes, domestic economic and security adjustments, declining industrial competitiveness, and an aging population [1] Economic Challenges - The report highlights that despite the federal government's efforts to increase investment and defense spending, there is significant room for improvement in investment execution [1] - Poor implementation of these investments could weaken growth potential and jeopardize the sustainability of public finances [1] Recommendations - The committee urges the government to utilize the "Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality" special fund (SVIK) more efficiently [1] - If the total fund of €500 billion is effectively used as additional investment outside the regular budget, it could significantly boost economic development [1] - Most experts recommend reforms to inheritance and gift taxes, including higher tax rates on corporate assets, although one committee member cautions that discussing higher corporate inheritance taxes may be premature given the current weak private investment sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China highlighted significant achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing China's resilience in the face of global challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and rising trade protectionism [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - China's GDP surpassed 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 23.9% increase from 2020 and an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [3][4]. - In 2025, China's GDP growth is estimated to reach around 5%, with a total economic increment expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. International Economic Context - The global economic uncertainty has increased significantly due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, with the world instability index rising over threefold from the end of 2024 [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth forecasts for China and the global economy, increasing China's growth rate prediction from 4.0% to 4.8% and the global growth rate from 2.8% to 3.2% [5]. Future Goals - The 15th Five-Year Plan aims for high-quality development, significant improvements in technological self-reliance, and enhanced social and economic reforms, with a target of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [6]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of fostering new productive forces and promoting industrial upgrades to achieve high-quality economic growth [6].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.6%, while maintaining a 1% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Compared to the IMF's July forecast, the GDP growth prediction for Russia this year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points [1] - Russia's economic growth was 4.3% last year, and the IMF had previously estimated a 4.1% growth rate for this year in April [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the GDP growth forecast for this year is attributed to recent data indicating that Russian budget expenditures are concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to an increase in the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.3% [1] - The IMF predicts that the inflation rate in Russia will reach 9% in 2025, decreasing to 5.2% by 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate in Russia was estimated at 2.5% last year, expected to decrease to 2.4% this year, and is projected to rise to 3.1% in the future [1] Group 3 - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3% [2]