1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点（最新逻辑变化） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 现货分歧大。1）行情：LME市场圣诞缺席，国内沪铜增仓到纪录水平，价格最高10.2万，伦铜开市跳涨到最高1.29万。消费淡季叠加高铜价， | | | | 跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精矿供应紧俏等利多因素，直接达到多数投行预计的年度高位区。2）国内供需：基本面背 | | | | 离信号明显。SMM月底沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。高铜价正在影响春节前涉铜中间铜材类产品开工，。这 | | 1 | 铜 | 可能对纪录涨势的铜价形成高位调整压力。但价格仍可能受益于原再生料的紧张、国内精炼铜产量供应同时转淡以及炼厂出口动作。海外价 差，美铜>伦铜>沪铜的跨市结构，持续减缓国内铜消费淡季的影响。3）海外：刚果（金）暂停手工铜和钴矿加工。等待海外投行更新2026年铜 | | | | 目标位预期。4）走势：以美盘铜6美元/磅上调铜市目标位，伦铜约1.31万美 ...

1. Reported Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment is positive, and it will operate at a high level in the short - term [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 113,800, with a change of - 3,290 compared to T - 5. The stainless - steel main contract's closing price is 12,380, with a change of - 175 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads are also presented [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine area, which is expected to affect monthly nickel production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the government restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [4][5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract is 106,820, with an increase of 12,740 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain are provided [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Due to environmental protection reasons in Hubei, some phosphorus - chemical enterprises reduced or suspended production, which may affect the supply of upstream materials for new - energy batteries [9][10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,470, with an increase of 220 compared to T - 5. The PS2605 contract's closing price is 61,595, with an increase of 5,680 compared to T - 5. Data on inventory, cost, price, and profit in the industrial - silicon and polysilicon industries are also given [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Turkish and German companies plan to build a solar - cell and silicon - wafer production plant in Turkey [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus shows a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mining right cancellation is limited, but sentiment may be supported [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 112,290, down 2,400 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,320, down 160 from the previous day [4]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 112,350, down 2,700 from the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi, Taiyuan/Zhangpu) was 13,250, down 50 from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4]. - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [5]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [5]. - Indonesia's OSS platform suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [7]. - Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia's industrial park will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,740, down 360 from the previous day; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 100,600, down 460 from the previous day [9]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850, up 700 from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,700, up 80 from the previous day [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose by 724 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [10]. - Jiangxi Special Electric Co., Ltd.'s mining right in the Shiziling mining area may be cancelled, and the company is striving to renew it and promote the production of the Xikeng lithium mine [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,365, up 15 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,600, up 570 from the previous day [13]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,750, unchanged from the previous day; the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,919.5 yuan/ton, down 85 from the previous day [13]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.1 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared with a week ago; the polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 29.3 tons, with an increase of 0.2 tons compared with a week ago [13]. Macro and Industry News In 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and the total social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time [13][15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Nickel**: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: High inventory, weak supply and demand, while cost limits the downside risk [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The pace of inventory reduction is slowing, and the price may face upward pressure [2][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Expected to perform weakly [2][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipt registration [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,760 yuan, down 110 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,425 yuan, down 40 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 103,322 lots, a decrease of 9,126 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 143,077 lots, an increase of 17,837 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events occurred, including the Indonesian forestry working group taking over part of the nickel - mining area, China suspending non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia implementing sanctions on mining companies [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 92,260 yuan, up 200 yuan; the trading volume was 101,978 lots, a decrease of 11,379 lots. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 93,700 yuan, up 40 yuan; the trading volume was 663,458 lots, an increase of 20,135 lots [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 534 yuan/ton. Weekly production increased by 74 tons, and inventory decreased by 2366 tons. Vulcan Energy obtained nearly $2.5 billion in financing for a lithium project [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 8,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume was 152,172 lots, an increase of 6,173 lots. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 56,915 yuan/ton, down 515 yuan; the trading volume was 175,576 lots, a decrease of 6,849 lots [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area issued measures to promote green - low - carbon development [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 3, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit its upward potential, and it will trade in a low - level range [2][4] - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand, while cost limits the downside [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Weak spot trading, and the high - level oscillation will continue [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Mainly in a weak operation [2] - Polysilicon: In an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 118,050 yuan, with a change of 200 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 88,522 lots, a decrease of 57,307 lots from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,465 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 144,713 lots, down 98,850 lots from T - 1 [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia may reduce production in December, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 94,860 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 73,196 lots, a decrease of 50,687 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2601 basis was - 460 yuan [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 94,864 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. BYD's November car sales were 480,186 units, and the cumulative sales from January to November were 4.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract for industrial silicon was 9,145 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract for polysilicon was 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1. Industrial silicon's social inventory was 550,000 tons, and polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 281,000 tons [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: Jiangsu Rundaxin Energy's new metallized TOPCon high - efficiency battery was launched, with a core conversion efficiency exceeding 26.5% [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of - 1, and polysilicon has a trend intensity of 0 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market will likely maintain high - level oscillations, with the SHFE main contract in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [2]. Tin - In the short term, although macro fluctuations are large, considering the limited supply recovery this year and the strong fundamentals, a bullish stance on tin price corrections is maintained. The focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [4]. Zinc - The zinc market is likely to oscillate. The price has limited downward space in the short term, but the fundamentals also provide limited impetus for continuous upward movement. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 22800 [6]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87800, with attention on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro drivers [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 12200 - 12600. The focus is on steel - mill production cuts and ferronickel prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market may first decline and then oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market is expected to have low - level oscillations, with the main price fluctuation range likely between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. For trading strategies, try to go long around 50,000 on the futures side; hold/sell put options on the options side, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 21380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss was 1798 yuan/ton, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.63 [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a 2.39% increase; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a 3.52% increase [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price dropped to 21350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 4.48% [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a 2.42% decrease; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a 1.06% increase [2]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 291300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import loss was 16328.60 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, a 15.13% decrease. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, a 53.09% increase [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The import loss was 4165 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a 2.85% increase; imports were 1.88 million tons, a 16.94% decrease [6]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference was 2675 yuan/ton, a 12.75% decrease [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a 2.62% decrease; imports were 28.21 million tons, a 15.61% decrease [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 116700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a 0.84% increase; imports were 38164 tons, a 124.36% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a 0.38% increase; exports were 35.81 million tons, a 14.43% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 92300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price dropped to 6807 dollars/ton, a 2.51% decrease [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a 5.73% increase; demand was 126961 tons, an 8.70% increase [15]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 9550 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 monthly spread increased by 200% [17]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a 7.46% increase; exports were 4.51 million tons, a 35.82% decrease [17]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The N - type re - feedstock average price remained at 52300 yuan/ton. The main contract price rose to 53360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% [18]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.71 million tons, a 1.12% increase; monthly production was 13.40 million tons, a 3.08% increase [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: The inventory accumulation pace has slightly slowed down, but the long - term logic of low - cost wet - process supply increase still exists. Short - term macro and news factors may lead to some price repairs. The upward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Indonesian news [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. The market is affected by macro factors and concerns about Indonesian policies. Short - term low - level short - selling has risks [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the bottom of the disk has obvious support. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices, and pay attention to whether the organic silicon enterprises can implement joint production cuts [33]. - **Polysilicon**: As it approaches the centralized cancellation period, the reduction of warehouse receipts may boost the near - month contracts. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, and short - term long - position layout at low prices is recommended [34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: At the end of the month, the expectations of downstream replenishment and mine resumption intensify the long - short game. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in November and the price center will decline in December [66]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the inventory accumulation contradiction still exists, but the marginal slowdown is due to the reduction of domestic refined nickel production in November. The long - term supply increase expectation of low - cost wet - process remains. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak with high upstream inventory, weak terminal demand, and a supply - demand situation of slight surplus [4][5]. - **Inventory Tracking**: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased. In the new energy sector, the inventory days of some products changed. In the nickel - iron and stainless - steel sector, the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless - steel increased to varying degrees [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as mine take - over, sanctions on mining companies, and policy changes regarding RKAB. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production due to safety inspections [8][9][11]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first rose and then fell, with the spot price rising. Polysilicon's futures price also first rose and then fell, while the spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory increased slightly this week, with production decreasing in the southwest and slightly increasing in Gansu. The demand is in a weak rigid - demand pattern. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with some production cuts expected in the future [29][30]. - **Market Views**: For industrial silicon, the futures warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the disk has support. A long - position strategy at low prices is recommended. For polysilicon, as it approaches the cancellation period, the near - month contracts may rise. A short - term long - position layout at low prices is recommended [33][34]. - **Data and Charts**: The report presents a large number of data and charts on the prices, production, inventory, and consumption of industrial silicon and polysilicon and their related products [37][39][40] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract had large fluctuations this week, with the price center rising. The spot price also increased [64]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The raw material side has news of mine resumption expectations. The weekly production increased, and the inventory reduction speed slowed down [65]. - **Market Views**: The long - short game is intensifying at the end of the month. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in November and the price center will decline in December. A positive - spread arbitrage strategy is recommended for the inter - period operation, and upstream producers are recommended to carry out selling hedging, while downstream enterprises are recommended to reduce the hedging ratio [66][68]. - **Data and Charts**: The report provides data and charts on the prices, production, inventory, and consumption of lithium carbonate and related products [70][74][85]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory accumulation inflection point, market sentiment is weak, and rubber prices have further declined. Future attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas during the peak season and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex rubber increased by 170 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton, a rise of 38.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37% [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.90%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.56% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, a rise of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 73.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24 percentage points to 65.34%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859,000 tons to 10.2954 million tons, a rise of 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 6.71 million pieces to 56.3 million pieces, a decline of 10.65% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a rise of 3.57%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons to 44,655 tons, a rise of 4.73% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the price is trending weakly, with supply exceeding demand. The market is under pressure, and the operation should be bearish. For glass, although there is a short - term demand expectation during the peak season, in the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term long opportunities at low prices can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, and the 2505 and 2509 contracts remained unchanged. The price of glass in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%. The 05 basis remained unchanged at - 109 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and the Northwest remained unchanged. The 2505 contract price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%. The 2509 contract price decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,354 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The 05 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 100% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 86.89%, and the weekly output decreased by 13,000 tons to 757,600 tons, a decline of 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 161,300 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 750 tons to 88,540 tons, a decline of 0.84% [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.966 million weight boxes to 65.79 million weight boxes, a rise of 4.72%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a rise of 2.54%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 22,000 tons to 676,900 tons, a decline of 3.18% [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year change in new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%. The year - on - year change in construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%. The year - on - year change in completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%. The year - on - year change in sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, while the futures price fluctuates downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market increases supply. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. When the price drops to around 8,500 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton. The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 255 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, a rise of 106.25% [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 400 yuan/ton, a rise of 9.09%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 40% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 31,400 tons to 452,200 tons, a rise of 7.46%. Xinjiang's production increased by 32,400 tons to 235,600 tons, a rise of 15.94%. Yunnan's production decreased by 5,700 tons to 53,800 tons, a decline of 9.60%. The national开工率 increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. Xinjiang's开工率 increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74%. Yunnan's开工率 decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 30 tons to 10,810 tons, a decline of 0.28%. Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 50 tons to 3,460 tons, a rise of 1.47%. The social inventory decreased by 100 tons to 558,000 tons, a decline of 0.18% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The spot price of polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price dropped significantly by 2,350 yuan/ton to 53,715 yuan/ton. After the sharp decline in futures, the futures premium has also significantly decreased. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also decreases. The market is expected to remain in a high - level range - bound state. Trading strategies include buying on dips in the futures market, selling put options around 50,000 in the options market, and buying photovoltaic ETFs, new - energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - fed material decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%. The basis of N - type material increased by 2,300 yuan/ton to - 1,515 yuan/ton, a rise of 60.29% [5]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 2,350 yuan/ton to 53,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous month increased by 80 yuan/ton to - 2,175 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.55% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 GW to 14.24 GW, a decline of 3.33%. Polysilicon production decreased by 1,300 tons to 28,200 tons, a decline of 4.41% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production increased by 4,000 tons to 134,000 tons, a rise of 3.08%. Polysilicon imports increased by 300 tons to 130 tons, a rise of 28.46%. Polysilicon exports decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decline of 28.16% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, a rise of 1.16%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 GW to 18.93 GW, a rise of 2.49% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The log futures market is expected to continue its weak - side oscillation. This week, the supply of logs at ports is increasing, but downstream orders are insufficient. The market is under pressure, but the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides some support for the futures price [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of log 2511 increased by 0.5 yuan/cubic meter to 740.5 yuan/cubic meter, a rise of 0.07%. The price of log 2601 decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 776.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.70%. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 1.32% [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.01 to 7.131. The import theoretical cost increased by 8.34 yuan/cubic meter to 812.94 yuan/cubic meter, a rise of 1% [7]. - **Supply (Monthly)**: Port shipments increased by 247,000 cubic meters to 2.013 million cubic meters, a rise of 13.99%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8 to 54, a rise of 17.39% [7]. - **Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: National inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a rise of 1.41%. Shandong's inventory increased by 18,000 cubic meters to 1.883 million cubic meters, a rise of 0.97% [7]. - **Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly)**: National average daily outbound volume decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10% [7].