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产量预估持续提升,产业偏空预期一致性较强
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 10:57
调研报告-棉花 [Table_Title] 产量预估持续提升, 产业偏空预期一致性较强 [Table_Rank] 走势评级: 报告日期: 棉花: 看跌 2025 年 9 月 29 日 [Table_Summary] ★调研目的: 疆棉采收期临近,为了深入了解新疆棉花产量、收购、消费、库存、 产业心态等,本人于 9 月 7 日-19 日参加了新疆棉花调研活动。 ★调研情况总结: ★行情展望: 四季度,新棉大量上市期,供应压力和市场情绪集中释放,盘面有 跌破 13000 的可能,低点或在 11 月份。待利空得到较大程度释放 后,下游备货增加将有助于盘面企稳。郑棉整体波动预估区间 12000-13000 元/吨,认为 13000 以下追空的风险收益比不好。长期 而言,四季度或是国内压力最大的时期,明年行情整体谨慎偏乐观。 (1)新棉增产的预期较强,产量预估提升。综合各方反馈和田间 考察,今年彊棉产量预计在 730-780 万吨,即 750 万吨上下,我们 认为实现 750 万吨的概率较大。新棉质量预计将同比提升。南北疆 开秤时间接近,预计 9 月底集中开秤。(2)轧花厂普遍心态谨慎, 尤其北疆失去了抢收的能力和冲动 ...
棉花:预计新棉成本继续主导期价走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton prices are fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, lacking positive support. Attention should be paid to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. The domestic cotton futures are falling. The expected high - yield and large - scale listing of new cotton, along with the weak purchasing enthusiasm of ginning mills, are pressuring the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The uncertainty of new cotton cost is the main pressure. However, if the demand is stable and the spot maintains a high basis, the point - pricing demand is expected to support the Zhengzhou cotton futures 01 contract after the new cotton cost is determined. Before the National Day holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will still be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [1][4][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 66.35 | 67.02 | 66.03 | 66.33 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 91806 | - 9314 | 165485 | 9600 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13740 | 13755 | 13390 | 13405 | - 315 | - 2.30 | 1198135 | 61293 | 534819 | 25570 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19765 | 19905 | 19590 | 19610 | - 125 | - 0.63 | 57369 | - 1233 | 6640 | - 10804 | [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: It is fluctuating narrowly between 66 - 67 cents, affected by the trends of crude oil and other agricultural products. The fundamental news is weak, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton has deteriorated again [4]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease and a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average. There was no new signing for 2026/27 US upland cotton. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase and a 6% increase compared to the four - week average. The total signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 94.65 tons, accounting for 36% of the annual forecasted total export volume; the cumulative export shipment volume was 21.98 tons, accounting for 23% of the annual total signing volume [5]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: The rupee has depreciated. The ex - factory price of S - 6 has dropped by 50 rupees/candy to 55,250 rupees/candy (about 79.5 cents/pound), and the quotation of J - 34 in Punjab has dropped by 200 rupees/maund to 5,465 rupees/maund (about 74.85 cents/pound) [6]. - **Brazil**: The subsequent shipment is expected to increase significantly. The estimated total output of 2024/25 cotton is 411 tons. The export shipment volume in the first two weeks of September was about 6.4 tons, and the progress was slower year - on - year, but it is expected to increase significantly later [7]. - **Australia**: There is expected to be more rainfall in Q4. The early planting scale in Queensland has expanded. The reservoir storage capacity in the Murray - Darling Basin has recovered to 70% of the total capacity [7]. - **Pakistan**: The demand for cotton imports is still average. The estimated total output of this year's cotton is 6 - 7 million bales. The domestic cotton supply is stable, and the spinning mills have little motivation to purchase from the international market [8]. - **Bangladesh**: The demand for cotton imports has slowed down. The import volume in August was 13.3 tons, slightly lower than that in July and a 12% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Textile Industry Startup Rates in Southeast Asia**: As of the week ending September 26, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 62.5%, and 65% respectively [9]. 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - **Spot and Pre - sale**: The spot trading of cotton is light, while the pre - sale of new cotton is relatively good. The spot price center has moved down, and the spot inventory has decreased. The pre - sale price of new cotton in 2025/26 is between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Seed Cotton Purchase**: The lower limit of the purchase price of seed cotton has been lowered. The purchase volume is small, and the listing progress is slower than expected. The purchase price for a certain volume is around 6.3 - 6.45 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost is mainly between 14700 - 15000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 3397 lots, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 12 lots, totaling 3409 lots, equivalent to 143,178 tons [11]. - **Downstream Situation**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The trading is average, with seasonal demand as the main factor. The new orders are few. The price is stable with a slight decline. The cash flow of enterprises has improved. The startup rate is stable, and the inventory reduction has slowed down [12]. - **Cotton Grey Cloth Market**: The trading is stable, with a weakening trend in some areas. The price is weak. The orders are mainly small - scale, and the subsequent orders are insufficient. The inventory reduction has slowed down. The average startup level of weaving factories is 50% - 60%, and some factories are reducing production [12]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - For ICE cotton futures, pay attention to whether it can hold the support level of 66 cents/pound. For domestic cotton futures, focus on the transaction price of new seed cotton. Before the National Day holiday, expect a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, the trend will be dominated by the new cotton cost, with limited impact from the overseas market during the holiday [17].
新疆已起飞
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-09-24 15:59
中国新闻网消息,中国面积最大同时又拥有最多民用机场的省区市,是哪里? 答案是新疆。 今年是新疆维吾尔自治区成立70周年。70年来,这个占国土面积1/6的省份,已在时代浪潮中完成"从落 后到追赶、从追赶至跨越"的蜕变。 翻开新疆经济社会发展答卷,用"腾飞"形容并不为过。 新疆1955年GDP仅12.31亿元,到2017年突破1万亿元大关,足足用了62年。2024年GDP突破2万亿元, 从1万亿元到2万亿元,只用了7年。2012年以来年均增长7.04%,跑出了新疆加速度。 外贸的爆发力同样不容小觑。2022年到2024年,新疆进出口总值以一年迈上一个千亿台阶的节奏,连续 突破2000亿元、3000亿元、4000亿元关口。新疆已从相对封闭的内陆日益变成对外开放的前沿,与世界 的联结愈发紧密。 如今的新疆,凭借硬实力拿下多个第一: 2024年粮食单产达每亩1049.7斤,跃居全国第一,"中国碗"里装入了更多的"新疆粮"。 棉花总产568.6万吨,占全国92%以上,连续32年居全国第一,天下棉仓称号当之无愧。 作为全国最大的新能源外送基地,新疆外送电量连续五年突破千亿千瓦时,点亮全国22个省区市。 在"向新"发展的道路 ...
棉花产业?险管理?报:采棉集中上市情况
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:27
| 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | | 13500-14200 | 0.0882 | 0.2287 | source: 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/9/23 陈嘉宁(投资咨询证号:Z0020097 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 【利多解读】 1、本年度在新疆纺纱产能提升及进口棉大幅缩减之下,下游棉花刚性消费量提高,疆棉去库速度较快,整体 库存水平偏低,据中国棉花信息网调查显示,截至9月15日,国内棉花工商业库存为203.80万吨,较上月低减 少33.60万吨。 2、8月份,服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类商品零售额为1045亿元,同比增长3.1%,环比增长8.74%。下游随着"金 九银十"的到来,走货环比好转,纱布厂产成品库存进一步去化。 【利空解读】 1、目前新疆新棉生长进度较快,整体长势良好,新年度维持丰产预期,棉价上方将存在较大的套保压力。 2、海关总署最新数据显示,2025年8月我国出口纺织品服装265.39亿美元,同比下降5 ...
新疆乌苏市召开2025年棉花监管工作会议不断提升棉花整体质量水平
Zhong Guo Shi Pin Wang· 2025-09-19 03:14
此次会议,深入贯彻落实新疆维吾尔自治区人民政府《关于提升棉花质量管理水平 推动棉花产业持续 健康发展实施方案》,紧扣棉花质量监管重点工作,狠抓棉花质量监管,服务棉花质量补贴政策,多措 并举助力棉花质量提升。在强化棉花质量监管责任方面,该局印发《关于做好2025年度"监管护棉"专项 整治有关工作的通知》,会上安排、部署棉花质量监管措施;在开展"监管护棉"专项行动中,帮扶指导 企业对存在的问题进行整改,确保收购加工企业基本技术条件符合国家标准及技术规范要求;邀请北京 智棉科技有限公司北疆片区经理(工程师)张兆国到会围绕籽棉棉卷身份识别、张贴追溯卡、分级分剁 堆放、拆棉膜取追溯卡、车间读取录入、完成追溯绑定、一户一档,质量追溯系统运行流程进行了现场 讲解。同时,该局加大监督检查频次,促进棉花整体质量水平提升;在做好棉花质量隐患风险防控中。 一方面,加强棉花质量及监督相关工作,及时掌握棉花收购和加工质量状况,针对苗头性、趋势性问 题、进行分析、研判,通过强化对棉花质量隐患排查,提高发现问题和防范化解风险的能力。另一方 面,全力整治不严格执行标准问题。针对棉花收购、加工中出现的新情况、新问题,该局严查企业不严 格执行棉 ...
《农产品》日报-20250915
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 07:59
1. General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, corn, pigs, and meal products, dated September 15, 2025 [1][4][5][8][11][14][17] 2. Industry - Specific Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 3. Core Views Oils and Fats - CBOT soybean oil may fall again due to seasonal decline in consumption and potential high - throughput of factories. The basis of spot soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations. Malaysian palm oil futures are in a consolidation phase, facing potential downward pressure from increasing production and weak export data. The Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and face a risk of downward break - through. The September 13 USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, and the industrial demand for US soybean oil decreases after summer [1] Sugar - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - side oscillation between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar has high inventory pressure, and the short - term futures may stabilize around 5500, but the rebound space is limited. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [4] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range. As new cotton is expected to be listed in the future, prices may face downward pressure [5] Eggs - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [8][9] Corn - In the short term, the corn market will gradually shift to a supply - demand loosening situation, with the futures oscillating weakly. In the medium term, the bearish situation remains, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is advisable [11] Pigs - The spot pig prices have limited room for further decline due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and secondary fattening. However, considering the supply recovery and uncertain demand, the prices may continue to bottom - out after a short - term rebound [15] Meal Products - The global soybean supply - demand situation has some changes, with US soybean production increasing and the global stocks - to - use ratio slightly decreasing. In China, the concern about future supply is alleviated, and the spot market is loose. However, due to cost support, the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [17] 4. Industry - Specific Summaries Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8610 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.82%) from September 11. The Y2601 futures price is 8018 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 0.10%). The basis of Y2601 is 592 yuan, up 78 yuan (15.18%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9320 yuan, up 100 yuan (1.08%). The P2601 futures price is 9062 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 0.57%). The basis of P2601 is 258 yuan, up 152 yuan (143.40%). The September import cost in Guangzhou Port is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan (0.41%), and the import profit is - 618 yuan, down 91 yuan (- 17.31%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan, up 100 yuan (1.01%). The OI601 futures price is 9547 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.53%) [1] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5540 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 0.29%); Sugar 2605 is 5517 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.13%); ICE raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound, up 0.01 cent (0.06%). The 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 28.13%) [4] - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan, unchanged; in Kunming is 5855 yuan, up 5 yuan (0.09%). The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.45%); outside the quota is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.47%) [4] - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); sales are 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons (12.87%). The cumulative sales ratio in the country is 89.60%, up 0.66 percentage points (0.74%); in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62 percentage points (0.70%) [4] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13820 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.18%); Cotton 2601 is 13860 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.18%); ICE US cotton is 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.02 cent (0.03%). The 5 - 1 spread is - 40 yuan, unchanged [5] - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15182 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.03%); CC Index 3128B is 15248 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.01%); FC Index M 1% is 13371 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.13%) [5] - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons (- 18.6%); industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons (- 3.5%). The import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons (66.7%) [5] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3040 yuan per 500KG, down 4 yuan (- 0.13%); Egg 10 contract is 3023 yuan per 500KG, down 20 yuan (- 0.66%). The 11 - 10 spread is 17 yuan, up 16 yuan (1600.00%) [8] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 3.54 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan (1.92%); the basis is 496 yuan per 500KG, up 70 yuan (16.56%) [8] - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 2.60 yuan per chick, down 0.40 yuan (- 13.33%); the price of culled chickens is 4.61 yuan per jin, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.22%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07 (2.88%); the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan per chick, up 4.71 yuan (20.84%) [8] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2197 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.23%); the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2310 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 113 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.63%); the 11 - 3 spread is 14 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 12.50%) [11] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2474 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 0.12%); the Changchun spot price is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price is 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 86 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.61%); the 11 - 3 spread is - 23 yuan, up 4 yuan (14.81%) [11] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 13255 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.49%); Live Pig 2601 is 13690 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%). The 11 - 1 spread is - 435 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 6.10%) [15] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan is 13450 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Shandong is 13550 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan is 13350 yuan, unchanged; in Liaoning is 13100 yuan, unchanged; in Guangdong is 14390 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Hunan is 13210 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei is 13400 yuan, unchanged [15] - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 148973, up 965 (0.65%); the weekly white - strip price is 0.00 yuan, down 20.1 yuan (- 100.00%); the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg (0.07%); the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan, down 35.8 yuan (- 68.02%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan (- 28.27%); the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) [15] Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 3050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.66%); M2601 futures price is 3079 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis of M2601 is - 29 yuan, up 29 yuan (50.00%). The import crushing profit for US Gulf shipments is not given; for Brazilian November shipments is 60, down 18 (- 30.0%) [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2650 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.76%); RM2601 futures price is 2531 yuan, down 36 yuan (- 1.40%); the basis of RM2601 is 119, up 56 (88.89%). The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments is 815, down 66 (- 7.49%) [17] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3959 yuan, up 14 yuan (0.35%); the basis is 21, down 14 (- 40.00%). The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, up 100 yuan (2.63%); the futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3759 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.11%); the basis is 141, up 96 (213.33%) [17] - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 259, down 20 (- 7.17%); the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 125, down 22 (- 14.97%); the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.82, up 0.004 (0.16%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.70, up 0.003 (0.12%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 400, unchanged; the 2601 spread is 548, up 27 (5.18%) [17]
美国棉花1~6月对中国出口大减9成
日经中文网· 2025-09-04 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The export of American cotton to China has decreased by 90% in the first half of 2025, while exports to countries like Vietnam and Pakistan have significantly increased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics due to tariff policies and production relocation in the apparel industry [2][4][6]. Group 1: Changes in Export Destinations - American cotton exports to China fell by 90% in the first half of 2025, while exports to Vietnam increased approximately 2.7 times [4]. - The shift in export destinations is attributed to the tariff policies of the Trump administration and the relocation of apparel production to lower-cost regions outside of China [6]. - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on imports from Vietnam from 46% to 20% and from Pakistan from 29% to 19%, enhancing the competitive position of Southeast and South Asian countries [6]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies - The Trump administration's tariffs have led to a significant reduction in cotton exports to China, with a cumulative 145% tariff imposed in April 2025, later negotiated down to 30% [6]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainties are expected to continue influencing the cotton market, with potential impacts on production and pricing [8]. - The USDA projects that U.S. cotton exports will reach 11.9 million bales for the 2024-2025 season, with increases in exports to other regions offsetting the decline to China [9]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - Cotton prices have shown weak upward momentum, hovering around 66 cents per pound, slightly below the beginning of the year [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the recovery of textile product demand remains a significant concern for the cotton market [11]. - The potential for increased imports of American cotton may arise as India plans to eliminate cotton import tariffs by September 30 [11].
新疆冠农股份有限公司2025年半年度报告摘要
Group 1 - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 77,699,358.30 yuan, which represents a cash dividend ratio of 25.90% based on the total share capital as of June 30, 2025 [1][52] - The company has announced the date for the fourth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders to be held on September 11, 2025, at 10:30 AM [4][7] - The voting for the upcoming shareholders' meeting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online voting methods [5][6] Group 2 - The company intends to provide a joint liability guarantee for its subsidiaries, Xinjiang Huijin Logistics and Aksu Yikang Warehousing, for their regulatory cotton storage and cotton futures delivery business [21][30] - The guarantee period for the regulatory cotton storage business is set for two years from the termination of the relevant cooperation agreement, while the guarantee for cotton futures delivery will last for three years from the date the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange obtains the right to claim against the delivery warehouse [22][27] - The board of directors has unanimously approved the guarantee proposal, emphasizing that it will enhance the market competitiveness of the subsidiaries and contribute to the overall economic benefits for the company and its shareholders [32][42] Group 3 - The company has reported a total of 32.22 billion yuan in external guarantees, which accounts for 89.71% of the company's audited net assets as of the end of 2024 [33][43] - The company has no overdue guarantee matters, and the external guarantee balance is 8.52 billion yuan, representing 23.73% of the company's audited net assets as of the end of 2024 [33][43] - The company has committed to providing a maximum of 9.26 billion yuan in joint liability guarantees for its subsidiaries' banking and financing activities [38][40]
冠农股份: 新疆冠农股份有限公司第八届董事会第三次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-26 11:09
Group 1 - The board meeting of Xinjiang Guannong Co., Ltd. was held on August 26, 2025, with all 9 directors present and no dissenting votes [1][2] - The board approved the asset impairment provision for the first half of 2025, totaling 36.94 million yuan, which includes 3.19 million yuan for credit impairment and 33.75 million yuan for asset impairment [1][2] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan for 2025, distributing a total of 77.70 million yuan (including tax), which represents 25.90% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - The board approved a proposal for new guarantees for subsidiaries, allowing up to 926 million yuan in joint liability guarantees for credit and financing activities [3][4] - The company will provide a total of 593 million yuan in guarantees for its subsidiaries, with a maximum of 86 million yuan in counter-guarantees based on shareholding ratios [5][6] - The board also approved guarantees for subsidiaries engaged in cotton storage and futures delivery, with a guarantee period of two to three years depending on the agreement [6][7] Group 3 - The board resolved to convene the fourth extraordinary general meeting of 2025, with all 9 directors voting in favor [7]
棉花:期价突破前高仍需新的驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures are in a range - bound oscillation. The USDA's reduction of the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production strengthens the support at 66 cents per pound, but the weak global cotton demand leads to poor US cotton export demand, and the upward momentum is insufficient without improvement in US cotton exports or more actual production cuts from major exporters [20]. - Domestic cotton futures rose again this week. The 01 - contract's increase was significantly greater than that of the 09 - contract, and the CF9 - 1 spread continued to widen. The CF509 contract is mainly about delivery logic, and the 01 - contract is affected by import quota policies and external market sentiment, but the expected high - yield of new crops limits the increase. The 01 - contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - ICE Cotton Main - continuous: Opened at 66.55, reached a high of 68.50, a low of 66.55, and closed at 67.48, up 0.84 or 1.26%. The trading volume was 141,171 lots, an increase of 24,529 lots, and the open interest was 154,300 lots, a decrease of 5,436 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous: Opened at 13,645, reached a high of 14,235, a low of 13,615, and closed at 14,120, up 480 or 3.52%. The trading volume was 1,098,037 lots, an increase of 457,089 lots, and the open interest was 477,620 lots, an increase of 216,824 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main - continuous: Opened at 19,580, reached a high of 20,280, a low of 19,550, and closed at 20,185, up 580 or 2.96%. The trading volume was 40,982 lots, an increase of 10,492 lots, and the open interest was 21,336 lots, an increase of 4,283 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose slightly this week. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report on Tuesday was bullish, causing ICE cotton to rise as it unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US cotton planting area, reducing production and ending stocks. However, concerns about US cotton export prospects led to a decline in the second half of the week, with only a slight weekly increase [6]. - USDA monthly supply - demand report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was cut by 840,000 acres, production dropped from 14.6 million bales in July to 13.21 million bales, and exports were cut by 500,000 bales, resulting in ending stocks being cut by 1 million bales to 3.6 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the 2024/25 ending stocks (2025/26 beginning stocks) were cut by 1.73 million bales, mainly in China (1.05 million bales) and Brazil (510,000 bales). The 2025/26 global cotton production was cut by 1.8 million bales, with the US down 1.39 million bales, Central Asia down 310,000 bales, and West Africa down 140,000 bales, while China was up 500,000 bales. Global cotton consumption was cut by 130,000 bales, with India down 500,000 bales, Bangladesh down 300,000 bales, Turkey down 200,000 bales, and Central Asia down 100,000 bales, while China was up 100,000 bales [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending August 7, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 54,900 tons, with Vietnam contracting 27,000 tons and Bangladesh 9,100 tons; 2026/27 contracts were 200 tons. The 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 32,300 tons, a 22% week - on - week decrease, with Vietnam shipping 7,900 tons and Pakistan 5,900 tons [8]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: The sowing progress is still slower than last year. As of August 8, the cotton planting area was 10.7 million hectares, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease. The total sales reached 7.4 million bales, and the Cotton Corporation of India's inventory was 2.6 million bales. The season's arrivals reached 30.49 million bales (170 kg per bale) [9]. - Brazil: Exports in July decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Cotton production was slightly cut to 3.9348 million tons due to a slight cut in the yield forecast in Bahia. July raw cotton exports were 127,000 tons, slightly lower than June and a 24% year - on - year decrease, in line with seasonal patterns. Turkey was the main customer (19%), followed by Bangladesh (16%), Vietnam (14%), and Pakistan (13%) [9]. - Australia: Exports were strong in June. Cotton fields are in pre - sowing preparation. June raw cotton exports were 128,900 tons, higher than the previous month but a 9% year - on - year decrease. China was the largest buyer (23%), followed by India (20%) and Vietnam (18%). From August 2024 to June 2025, the cumulative exports in the first 11 months of the season were 966,500 tons, lower than last year. China accounted for 26%, Vietnam 24%, and India's share rose from 4% in 2023/24 to 13% [10][11]. - Pakistan: Import demand is moderate. The cotton plants are in good condition, and pests are under control. The expected cotton production is between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The cotton market supply is limited, and spinners' demand is stable, supporting prices. Many ginneries are over - sold, and the seed - cotton price has strengthened. The cotton import demand remains at a normal level, mainly for Brazilian cotton [11]. - Bangladesh: Cotton import demand may rise, and garment exports were strong in July. After the US tariff policy announcement, textile and garment orders increased. Many manufacturers are seeking to increase the use of US cotton for tariff exemptions. Cotton purchases have increased to meet downstream demand. In July, knitted and woven garment exports were $3.96 billion, a 42% increase from June and a 25% increase from the same period last year [12]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending August 15, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 73%, unchanged from last week and in August, with a July average of 73.25%; Vietnam's was 63%, unchanged from last week, with an August average of 63.17% and a July average of 64.25%; Pakistan's was 64%, unchanged from last week and in August, with a July average of 62% [12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot prices rose slightly and trading improved slightly. As of the week ending August 15, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly, and spot trading was better than last week, but spinners mainly maintained just - in - time purchases. The quality mismatch between Xinjiang and inland spot inventories was more obvious. The low - basis southern Xinjiang lint in Xinjiang warehouses continued to decrease, while there was relatively more southern Xinjiang lint in inland warehouses. Xinjiang warehouses were mainly quoting northern Xinjiang prices, with a small amount of low - basis spot available. The basis was generally stable [13]. - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: As of August 15, there were 7,829 registered No. 1 cotton warehouse receipts and 249 pending receipts, totaling 8,078 receipts, equivalent to 339,276 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,510 Xinjiang cottons (220 in northern Xinjiang, 407 in southern Xinjiang, and 6,883 in inland warehouses) and 319 local cottons [14]. - Downstream situation improved slightly. The pure - cotton yarn market trading improved, with downstream replenishment purchases increasing. Spinners' quotes rose slightly. In terms of varieties, air - jet spinning and regular varieties had mainly just - in - time transactions. Profits changed little, with inland spinners' C32S cash - flow losses at around 500 yuan per ton and Xinjiang spinners still having a small profit. Spinners' inventories decreased slightly. The startup rate changed little, and inland spinners continued to limit production. The demand improvement in the pure - cotton grey fabric market was not sustainable, and weavers' confidence was still low. Prices were quoted higher, and actual transactions were negotiated based on quantity. Weavers' overall orders did not improve significantly, the startup rate increased slightly, and inventories decreased slowly. There was no improvement in inquiries and samples, and real orders were still scarce. In the export market, some brand traceability orders were placed, and export orders increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, orders in the knitted fabric market increased limitedly, and home textile and woven orders were poor. Weavers mostly maintained a just - in - time purchase strategy, with a slight increase in purchases. The market confidence was generally low [15]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including those on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinners' cotton inventory, weavers' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises'棉纱 inventory, cotton - cloth enterprises' cotton - cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton - cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [17][18][19]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain range - bound. The reduction of US cotton planting area and production strengthens the support, but the weak global demand restricts the upward momentum. - Domestic cotton futures are expected to oscillate. The 01 - contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high, and attention should be paid to the external cotton market and Xinjiang weather [20].